Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Week 16 - Championship! And Consolation Championship!

It's finally here. What we've all been waiting for. And while the majority of the league is upset that they're not playing for anything this week, two teams are battling it out for the largest prize we've ever seen in this league. Let's take an in depth look at the positional battles and see where each team can seize an advantage and who is most likely to take home the $1,200.

For the purpose of this analysis, the trailing symbol indicates a high (^), medium (=), or low (v) option. So for example, a RB1v is a low tier RB1 while a RB2^ is a high tier RB2. The low tier RB1 is still better for fantasy purposes than the RB2^. This just helps us create more tiers for us to evaluate. The ranks are based on consensus fantasy experts rankings but will not be the holy grail for determining advantages. All ranks are up to date as of Wednesday.

QB:
Mahomes (1) QB^
vs.
Jackson (10) QBv, Ryan (11) QBv

Advantage: Cho
There's no contest here. Even with a non-plus matchup, Mahomes has been the best QB in the league. Simon needs to play the right QB to limit his damage.

RB:
Zeke (1) RB1^, Howard (24) RB2v, McGuire (23) RB2v
vs.
Saquon (4) RB1^, Chubb (5) RB1=, Carson (8) RB1=

Advantage: Simon
If they were playing 3 RBs, Simon would have a great leg up. His best RB is always a top 5 play, even after a down week against an underrated defense, and his other 2 RBs get great matchups against the Bengals and Chiefs. But Zeke will keep this one close as he gets a terrible Bucs line in a must-win game for the Cowboys. Both Howard and McGuire have beatable matchups as well so this shouldn't be a blowout as the rankings suggest.

WR:
Evans (13) WR2^, Davis (23) WR2v Moore (26) WR3^, Hamilton (47) WR4v
vs.
Hill (6) WR1=, Diggs (11) WR1v, Landry (24) WR2v, Pettis (28) WR3^

Advantage: Simon
Once again, Simon has slightly better depth but when you look at the top 3, the gap shrinks. Hill and Diggs are boom or bust and they're likely to be shadowed by Griffin and Slay, respectively. That could allow Evans to make up some ground, even against a stingy Cowboys defense. Davis faces a tough Redskins secondary that may result in Henry pounding the rock over and over but Moore has an excellent matchup against a burnable Falcons D. We'll see how the loss of Cam affects him this week. If Cho chooses to go with Hamilton, we'll expect a lot of targets but hold our breath on the final results. Landry could be the game-changer depending on which version we see on Sunday: will we get the touchdown threat running down the seams or will we see wasted throws on 5 yard attempts?

TE:
Uzomah (14) TE2^
vs.
Cook (6) TE1=

Advantage: Simon
Assuming Jordan Reed doesn't make a miraculous recovery, this is Simon's biggest advantage. Cook usually bounces back from poor weeks and he just had one last week. Uzomah has shown no reason to trust him, especially with Driskel under center. We'll see if this is the matchup that allows Simon to pull away.

K:
Fairbairn (4) K^
vs.
Legatron (1) K^

Advantage: Push
Both good kickers in great game situations. Greg the Leg gets a slight boost due to playing in a dome but the Rams offense has not looked good lately. Fairbairn should get plenty of opportunities in a shootout against Philly.

DEF:
Broncos (9) DEFv
vs.
Rams (1) DEF^

Advantage: Push
The Rams are the better defense against a rookie QB and a team they've already dominated this season. However, I believe the Denver rank is WAY to low. They may be playing in Oakland but Miller and Chubb should have a field day against one of the worst offenses in the league. Expect similar double digit performances from both defenses.

Winner: Simon
It looks pretty clear cut on paper but that's why we play the games.

As for the consolation bracket, let's do a quick rundown:
- Eric is playing Josh Allen. God help him.
- Receivers are a mediocre wash
- Eric's backfield > Jung's
- Jung is playing Hooper. May God also help him.
- Slight special teams edge to Eric
Winner: Eric
Congrats on your gift card! I'll contact you after your matchup with available vendors.

Good luck to all! Thanks for another great season!

Simon Kim

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Week 15 - Playoff MOTW!

What an interesting wild-card round. Paul's team didn't play bad but Cooper played the 3 receivers on Paul's team to a draw, Kittle had one of the best TE performance of the year, and Julio negated the decent showing by Paul's backfield. In the other matchup, Mike woke up to some terrible news. Reports on Baldwin looked very positive until the day of, but unfortunately for Mike, he was fast asleep in Korea. By the time he woke, Cho had rostered any receiver worth picking up (not that any pickup would have sufficed in that ugly Monday night game) and his playoff dreams were crushed.

Now, I don't like writing about my own team but I can't miss out on MOTWs now. So I'll try to be as unbiased in my analysis as we dive into the semi-final matchups. I liked last week's formula so let's keep it going this week:

MOTW 1
1. Bless'm vs. 5. Fournetflix 'n cHiLL
I'm still not sure if Biggie's name was written like that on purpose but I don't know what HLL is so I'll just assume he was doing it to be obnoxious. Simon won both regular season matchups but none of that matters in the playoffs.

Studs: Rivers vs. Fournette
Rivers struggled last week against a hapless Bengals defense. Although the KC defense can definitely ratchet up some pressure, their secondary isn't the toughest to throw on. Additionally, if Melvin Gordon remains out, Rivers will be leaned on heavily to keep up with the high-octane KC offense. He may throw a pick or fumble a ball, but the volume (expect >30 attempts) should make up for it. Fournette gets to face a reeling Redskins team that the Jaguars game plan will work perfectly against. Their run defense hasn't been great, giving up a huge game to Saquon last week, and their offense is being led by Matt Sanchez, meaning the Jaguars should be nursing a lead all game. After a poor showing last week, expect a huge bounce back this week.

Duds: Hill vs. Jones
Neither of these guys are benchable, for obvious reasons, but there are glaring issues for each player. Hill has a tough matchup against Hayward and even if he burns him, rookie sensation Derwin James should be waiting over the top to stop him. He's not 100%, dealing with wrist and heel injuries so expect the Chiefs to target Kelce and Conley more in this game. Jones faces a Chicago defense that just held Gurley to single digit fantasy points (5.8!). Now, we all know what Rodgers can do (see week 1) and that will certainly help open up some lanes for Jones but I just can't see him breaking 100 yards in this one.

X-Factors: Cook vs. Kittle
Both of these bay area TEs have been the top target in the pass game all season. While there's no question that Kittle is the more talented and better TE if all other factors are held equal, Cook gets a favorable matchup and could match Kittle's production for 1 week. If Cook can help neutralize Kittle, one of Biggie's top weapons, Simon's chances will vastly improve.

Winner: Simon
It's hard to pick against a team with 2 of the top 10 RBs and a great special teams matchup (especially if Foles plays). It will be closer than a 1 vs. 5 matchup should be, but I'm guessing Simon's team makes it through.

MOTW 2
2. Orange MFN Charizard vs. 3. Jacked Up!
Cho should feel lucky to even be here. His team performed terribly but he squeaked by thanks to a last second injury report and Melvin Gordon's slowly healing MCL. But it's not a fluke that he's in the smis. David will have his hands full keeping Cho at bay even though he crushed Cho by 30 in week 4.

Studs: Woods vs. Mahomes
Woods gets to face a defense that just gave up 200 yards and 3 TDs to Amari Cooper. While Cooks will probably be the main beneficiary, the Eagles secondary has been decimated, meaning all options are threats to score. The Rams will be looking for a statement win after being embarrassed by the Bears. Mahomes is almost always a stud, but in a divisonal game, at home, to clinch the division, against a middle of the pack defense that he torched for 4 TDs in his first game as a pro? Let's pencil in 30.

Duds: Both backfields
The backfield star power is blinding between these two teams. On one side you have Charizard and the White Wonder. On the other, you got Zeke and Lamar Miller... Okay, Lamar clearly isn't in the same league as the others but he's still have solid RB2 in a matchup where the game flow should favor him. However, I foresee tough days for everyone involved. For Kamara, Carolina has actually been pretty solid against running backs and he's struggled for consistency the last 3 weeks. While the road curse doesn't affect Brees as much in warm weather or divisional games, Brees's struggles could be passed on the Kamara. McCaffrey has been the linchpin of the Panthers offense, scoring exactly 22.1 points in each of the past 2 weeks. However, he faces one of the best run defenses in the league and I'd expect Cam to get more involved as the Panthers look to slow things down, keep the ball in the hands of their playmaker, and grind out a win as they try to get back into the playoff race. Zeke faces an underrated Indy defense and I actually see them struggling to win this game (upset alert!). Zeke won't get shut out completely but I would not be surprised if he's held under 15 points. And lastly, Lamar Miller had a poor showing last week and Blue could take more snaps than Cho would like. I don't think either backfield will bust completely but expect a lower score than they've been showing all season.

X-Factors: Tampa Bay
Winston and Evans play against a tough Baltimore defense in Maryland. Will Winston be able to succeed against that defense without his best WR? If he can, David kills 2 birds with one stone: playing a great QB while producing a dud on the other side. But if Winston's 3 TD game all goes to Evans, the advantage goes to Cho as he's able to negate a QB with a WR.

Winner: David
Cho's players have terrible matchups and I don't think Mahomes does enough to carry the entire team to week 16. The TE position is a matchup I see being very lopsided which should give the edge to David.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Thursday, December 6, 2018

Why Didn't They Make the Playoffs? Plus a Shortened Double-header MOTW

The post-season is finally upon us and while 6 people will be fighting for the honor and prize of $1200, 6 others will be wondering where it all went wrong.

But no need to wonder! I'll tell you what went wrong right here! (Some of these are jokes so don't take them too seriously)

12. Shock the F'n World
Reason: Didn't update his team
Pretty easy to fix this. UPDATE YOUR LINEUP!

How to fix: Update your lineup!

11. David Y Team
Reason: Drafted Le'veon Bell and then held onto him for dear life
While he did make a savvy trade using Kelce earlier in the year to try and stay in the playoff hunt, he ultimately failed because he just kept on hoping that Le'veon would return. I'm sure he got some offers before he was officially eliminated and when you're falling multiple games under .500, your first priority is to get in the playoffs. At that point, the best ability in any player is availability.

How to fix: Trade away non-active players for active players. You'll have to trade them at a discount but even if they return in week 10 or 11, it doesn't matter if you're not in the playoff hunt.

10. Berries 'n Kareem
Reason: Drafted a woman-beater and relied on a 41 year old QB
Brady has performed admirably on the real gridiron but in the fantasy gridiron, he's been less than stellar. Even if you combine Fitzpatrick and Jameis into 1 QB and remove Matt Barkley's 1 game performance, Brady ended up as a QB15 during the regular season. When you have someone who has name brand cachet, you need to trade their real life value for some more fantasy value. The Kareem Hunt incident was unfortunate but that's what you get when you support assault.

How to fix: Draft people without criminal records and those who aren't past the middle of their lives

9. Kerryon MyWaywardSon
Reason: Walked under a ladder, broke a mirror, and possibly opened an umbrella inside
I've already highlighted Eric's close losses in a previous post and the only explanation I could come up with is that he's been cursed. Unfortunately for Eric, I think most of these curses last 7 years so I would stop playing fantasy until 2025 if I were him.

How to fix: I think there's some remedy where you bathe yourself in garlic. Doesn't hurt to try.

8. Afghanistananis
Reason: Didn't focus on shoring up his fantasy defense
Dan had a remarkable scoring season, ending up 4th in points scored but he missed the playoffs by 2 wins. The problem? Like the Colts and Saints of years past, while his offense was exploding, his defense couldn't stop the other teams. Look at some of the point totals he's given up: 154 to Simon, 114 to Eric, 121 to David K, 121 to Paul, 133 to Cho, 114 to Simon (again, and without a kicker). It's hard to make the playoffs when you have to score 125+ a week.

How to fix: Break the legs of the players on the teams he faces

7. Fe-Brees
Reason: Too much faith and reliance on his own team
I'm pretty sure I say this every year but Jon Lee has a problem. That problem is trust and faith in his players, even when they don't produce. David Johnson was an RB2 this year (a low-end one if you take away his one 30 point outing) but he has name brand value. If Jon had offered him for Phillip Lindsay or Aaron Jones, does the opposing manager say no? Instead, he kept believing in the putrid offense that is the Cardinals to do the right thing. Also, why he kept holding on to guys like Kenyan Drake and Royce Freeman baffles me. Neither back finished as a top 24 back. Trey Burton was TE8 for the regular season but when Jon needed him the most in the past 3 weeks, he completely shat the bed, averaging less than .6 points per contest (not a typo). The difference between Burton and TE20 is 1.6 ppg, less than the difference between Burton and TE5, Jared Cook. Maybe Jon should have started looking at higher upside players when Burton started disappearing from the offense. Lastly, Brees has always struggled in non-conference games on the road. He continued to deliver on that promise with poor showings at New York (8.58), Baltimore (20.78, not terrible but much lower than what we are used to from Brees), Minnesota (8.8), and Dallas (9.28). He did have one good game on the road against Cincy but their defense is completely putrid. Had Jon replaced Brees in one of these weeks he may have won. He lost the NY week by 9 and the Minnesota week by 36. One of those wins would have put him in the playoffs.

How to fix: Unfixable because Jon will always have irrational confidence in players he drafted.

Side note: I think it would be incredible if Chris ran the table in the consolation bracket to claim the $25 gift card after being berated all year for not setting his lineup. He'd have to beat Eric (an unlucky Gurley owner) and Dan (The best team to not make playoffs) which would just up the hilarity. Don't take your eyes off the bottom half just because they're not playing for a cash prize. They're arguably playing for an even bigger prize: not suffering humiliation.

Now let's do a cliff notes version of the two wild card games this week:

MOTW 1
3. Jacked Up! vs. 6. Just Forsett In
Previous meeting(s): Week 5, Jacked Up! by 1.28 points

Stud matchup: Zeke vs. Michael Thomas
When do we get to stop calling Michael Thomas, Michael Thomas? All the other great receivers have intialized nicknames (OBJ, AB, AJ) or go on a one name basis (Julio, Nuk/DeAndre, Diggs, Cheetah/Tyreek). Hopefully someone can come up with a good nickname after he destroys the horrendous Bucs defense. Zeke will look to match his first showing (30+) against this Philly team that seems to get destroyed by division rival RBs.

Dud matchup: Mahomes vs. Doug Martin
Mahomes??? Yes, Mahomes. Granted, he won't be held to single digits but he's going to struggle on the road against a Ravens secondary that has given QBs trouble all season long. Expect a more human effort from Mahomes this week. Martin (who will forced to play when Melvin ends up sidelined) is going against a tough Pitt run D in a game they'll be playing from behind. Expect Richard to outscore the Muscle Hamster.

X-Factors: Lamar Miller vs. Melvin Gordon's MCL
Lamar Miller started off the season in horrific fashion (less than 10 PPG until the bye week) but has scored in double digits the past 3 weeks. He could be what propels Cho's team to a victory. Mike's entire matchup (and playoff hopes) ride on the fact that Melvin Gordon will be healthy. While Ertz, Cam, the Rapist, and MT are still solid players, nobody has the 40 points ceiling Gordon has. His lack of RB depth is being exposed at the worst possible time.

Winner: Cho
This will be closer than expected, especially if Gordon plays, but with great matchups for his backfield and very good special teams situations, Cho should be able to make it back to the semis.

MOTW 2
4. The Glory Hogans vs. 5. Fournetflix 'n cHiLL
Previous meeting(s): Week 10, Fournetflix 'n cHiLL by 36.36

Stud matchup: Lindsay vs. DeShaun
Lindsay has been one of the finds of the year for Paul and he gets one of the best matchups of the year in week 14. The loss of Sanders may mean heavier boxes but he'll get more carries and targets as a trusted set of hands. DeShaun destroyed the Colts earlier in the season and should be able to do it again. If Biggie is to pull of the upset, he'll need 30+ from DeShaun and I'm sure he'll get it.

Dud matchup: OBJ vs. Fournette
These 2 1st rounders have helped these teams get here but I don't think they'll be the stars in the wild card round. OBJ has to face shadow coverage from Josh Norman and even if he gets past them, needs to get past one of the best safety tandems in the league in Haha + Swearinger. Fournette goes against an underrated Titans front 7 in a game that the Jaguars will probably be playing from behind. Expect a few more touches to go to Yeldon that Biggie will like.

X-Factors: Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
Both players get to root for the team they actually root for but Biggie gets the leg up here. The Steelers face a dying Raiders team that can't throw the long ball, arguably the biggest weakness of the Steelers. On the other hand, Chicago, who has been a top tier defense all year, faces Sean McVay's machine.

Winner: Biggie
I don't know how it's relevant in fantasy football but Biggie's playoff experience shines in this matchup. With less than ideal matchups for some of his key players, Paul will need a big week to stave off the underdog. Unfortunately, he'll come up short and re-live his week 10 horror again. Fun fact: Paul is the only one to have defeated both teams that have earned a bye this week. Hopefully he'll get a chance to repeat the feat if he gets out of this week.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Win or Go Home... or Play for a Gift Card

Wow, this past week was brutal. 3 teams all got officially eliminated from the playoff race. Dan, Eric, and Jung, prep your teams for the gift card bowl.

Cho and Paul look relatively safe even though they TECHNICALLY haven't locked in their place. However, Cho leads Jon (the only current outsider who can still sneak in) by over 140 points. There's absolutely no way to make up that differential. Also, while not as massive, Paul leads Jon by over 80 points; another safe margin. This leaves 3 teams fighting for 2 spots: Biggie, Mike, and Jon. Obviously a loss by Jon auto-clinches for Biggie and Mike (and this might happen as Jon plays Todd Gurley off a bye), but in case he does win and one of the other two drops a game (Biggie plays Simon, currently 1st, and Mike plays Chris, currently last), the points tiebreaker will come into effect. Those teams are separated by less than 30 points, with Biggie and Jon (the 2 most likely to be fighting for the final spot) separated by fewer than 4 points.

What does this all mean? It just means if Jon wins and Biggie and Mike lose, one of them is going to upset that they're playing for a gift card when they should be fighting for a 4 figure payday.

Could I have written more for this post? Possibly. But honestly, I was kind of hoping that Dan and Eric would win, Biggie and Jon would lose, and there would be more drama heading into week 13. Instead, we're left with a 3 team race. I'll save my long write-up for the playoff preview next week when the seeds are set.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim



Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Week 12 - MOTW: Playoffs on the Line

We had some serious contenders for this week's MOTW. Eric scored 55 points and won last week to keep his slight playoff hopes alive and Jung and Mike face off trying to rebound from blowout losses to the 2 leaders of the league. However, all the above parties have been in MOTWs this year so to keep my entire fan base happy AND focus on a bubble team that hasn't gotten enough love, we'll look to a clash of 2 former champs.

MOTW
3. Jacked Up! vs. 7. Fournetflix 'n CHiLL
Cho is a long shot to receive a bye but with 4 6-5 teams trying to take his spot, he can't rest easy yet. Biggie on the other hand needs to win this week or his shot at the playoffs may be all but over. He's made up considerable ground in the points tiebreaker but he still trails everyone ahead of him (and even a few teams behind him). But 4 straight wins while averaging 111.71 ppg has gotten him right back in the playoff mix. Let's see if he can continue his ascent.

Cho's Top 3:
1. Zeke (RB) - 20
2. Evans (WR) - 18
3. Jordan Reed (TE) - 16
First things first, the lack of Mahomes is going to kill Cho this week. The best QB on the waiver wire is... Carr against a stingy Ravens D? Darnold at the hell-hole they call Gillette? Keenum against the Steelers? Either way, his QB spot is probably going to look worse when most weeks when Mahomes is scoring 30+. He'll have to lean on his other skill positions to get him the W but it's going to be tough. Zeke should get his. Washington's morale is destroyed and Zeke eats against any opponent. We'll see if this one ends up being a Thanksgiving feast. Next, Evans will be matched up against Richard Sherman but this isn't the Richard Sherman of old. He's beatable and he will be against one of the bigger, more physical receivers in the game. Winston definitely clicks better with Evans than Fitzmagic so expect extra looks in the end zone. Finally... wait, what? Jordan Reed? You're putting him in the top 3 when he's only had 2 games over 10 points all season? Are you insane? Yes, I am insane. But look at the rest of Cho's team. Other than his yet to be named QB, where else are we getting 15+ points? Plus, Dallas can be beat by TEs (see: Ertz, Zach) and McCoy should be looking for his big target in his first start this year.

Biggie's Top 3:
1. Watson (QB) - 30
2. Julio (WR) - 28
3. Fournette (RB) - 26
DeShaun loves the spotlight. He carried his Clemson team to the ship against favorites Alabama in the CFP championship, and he exploded onto the scene with a 13-9 win against Cincy during his rookie year on TNF. With another chance to showcase his skills against a division opponent on prime time television, expect fireworks. The Titans D is good enough to force some mistakes but with DT having one more week to work with the offense and Keke returning to full health, Watson should have plenty of weapons to score big. Julio will get to face an improving Saints D but due to the fact that NO should put up 40+, expect at least 15 targets Julio's way. And with that many targets, you know Julio will explode. Fournette came back just in time for Biggie's stretch run. While the Jaguars and Bortles still suck, their O-line is still good and the Jags should be able to take the lead against a hapless Bills team. That means 25+ touches for Fournette and we all know that with that volume, it's just a matter of time before you end up in the end zone.

X-Factor: Anonymous QB (QB, Cho) vs. Kittle (TE, Biggie)
As aforementioned, the QB chosen by Cho could make or break him this week. For Biggie, Kittle is back from his bye and ready to tear down a TB team that couldn't stop a flag football team from scoring on them. He's developed a connection with Mullens and should put up at least 80 yards and a TD.

Potential Starters Missing Due to Bye:
Cho: Mahomes (QB) (Ouch)
Biggie: None

Winner: Biggie
As you can see, if the top 3 scorers on one team tops the highest scorer on the other team, that's usually the sign of a blowout. Cho's players have some unfortunate matchups and the missing Mahomes makes this a tough week for him. Could this loss lead to an unprecedented slide out of the playoffs? We'll find out next week!

Good luck to all! And Happy Thanksgiving! Enjoy your time with loved ones!

Simon Kim

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Week 11 - In or Out?

10 weeks are in the books and only 1 team has been eliminated for sure. In what will be a frantic finish, with almost every playoff contender facing their direct competition for the coveted spots, the playoffs have basically already started with de facto elimination games occurring every week. We'll take a look at the current standings, remaining schedule, and the effects of the week 11 and 12 bye, to determine which of the 11 teams will make the playoffs and which will be on the outside looking in.

The "All-But-Clinched"
1. Bless'm
2. Orange MFN Charizard
These two teams have a minimum 2 game lead on all the other teams with 3 games to go. To drop out of the playoffs, they would need to lose all of their games, have specific teams finish 8-7 (due to scheduling, some of the teams will eliminate each other as they fight for playoff qualification), and lose the 100+ points for tiebreaker. I just don't see that happening. They also have the inside track on securing the bye. The only question remaining is which one will end up as the 1 vs. the 2 seed.

12. Shock the F'n World
Nobody was shocked to see Chris missing out on the playoffs. While his team has had some pleasant surprises (AP, Mack, Goff), his inability to play them in the proper weeks AND inability to keep his roster updated (WHY IS FREEMAN STILL ON THE ROSTER?) has resulted in a terrible rookie season. He will be put on probation for next year (if he decides to play) and will be kicked out of the league if his inactive management style continues.

The "Heavy Favorites"
3. Jacked Up!
He owns the point tiebreaker against the rest of the league (save the top 2) and he will finish his season playing 3 teams that are currently in the bottom half of the table. He will miss Mahomes in week 12 but 1 win should be enough to secure his place.

4. Fe-Brees
Missing Michel in week 11, Cooks in week 12, and AJ Green potentially through both makes me a little nervous to put him in this tier but he should be able to survive either Biggie or David Y, needing only one of those victories to play past week 13.


The "Anybody's Guess"
This is where the real analysis begins. 5 teams will fight for 2 playoff spots. Let's see what's in store for them in the next 21 days and make a prediction on each team.

5. Just Forsett In
Currently has a 1 game lead on everyone but other than Melvin Gordon and Zach Ertz, his team has struggled; his team isn't averaging over 100 a game. The great news is he gets Chris's team in week 13, a team that has struggled all season and one that Mike beat by almost 30 points earlier this season. That win gets him to 7 but the 8th that clinches his playoff future should be against a Kareem Hunt-less Jung's team in week 12. He'll be one of the weaker teams going into the playoffs but all you need to do is to get in to give yourself a chance.
VERDICT: IN

6. The Glory Hogans
Paul wants the season to end today but unfortunately he needs to keep the horde from coming after him in the next 3 weeks. He should get the first win he needs this week against David Y and follow that up with a win against a Gurley-less Eric's team. However, his own brother may be his demise, dropping him to 7-6, tied with one of the other teams below and losing on the points tiebreaker. Let's hope that loss doesn't put a damper on their Christmas gathering.
VERDICT: OUT

7. Berries 'n Kareem
Due to his relatively low points for, Jung needs 3 wins (or crazy amounts of losses by his competition) to guarantee his spot. Unfortunately, he needs to do this against the 1st, 5th and 9th (who has the 4th highest points in the league) place teams. To make matters worse, Jung might be the team that relies on players with week 11/12 byes the most. He'll be missing Brady, White, Amendola, Stills, and Goodwin for week 11 and Hunt for week 12. I see an unfortunate 1-2 or 0-3 finish for Jung and not even receiving a bye in the relegation bracket.
VERDICT: OUT

8. Fournetflix 'n CHiLL
Fournette is FINALLY back and after trading Ty Mont, GB has finally utilized the other Aaron as a bell cow back. But is that enough to overcome his major point deficiency? He has the 3rd lowest points for and he must face the 4th, 3rd, and 1st place teams to end his season, needing AT LEAST 2 wins to have a chance at the playoffs. Other than Kittle missing for one week, he'll have his full team to face this uphill battle but I just can't see this ending well for Biggie.
VERDICT: OUT

9. Afghanistananis
Dan has only 1 option: win out. At that point, he'll be 7-6 and hoping that his 4th highest points for will be enough to push him into the postseason. He faces the 4th and 1st place team which will make this difficult but he plays a direct competitor in Jung (7th) which will help him leapfrog him in the standings. He's passed through bye-week hell and has his full roster for the next 3 weeks. IF he can get past Cho this week, he faces Simon's team without Hill or Legatron. I think he gets the 3 wins and becomes a team nobody wants to play in the playoffs.
VERDICT: IN

The "I Can't Believe a Team with Gurley Didn't Make the Playoffs"
10. Kerryon MyWaywardSon
While he should get a win in week 11 against Chris's team, week 12 without Gurley may be the week that he receives this 8th loss and ends his playoff push. Even if he wins out, he'll need a specific scenario where all of the 5-5 teams lose 2 of their games and Dan wins fewer games than him. While this is theoretically possible (the 5-5 teams don't play each other), it just seems like too many things needing to go right for his team to make the playoffs. Look at some of the losses Eric has taken:
Week 4: 123.2 - 119.58 (Jared cook catches 110 + 2TD, Case Keenum missing Demaryius on a WIDE OPEN TD pass on Monday night)
Week 5: 115.82 - 114.02 (Ridley cools off after 3 straight weeks of 12+ points, 2 TD a piece from Steelers Antonio and Conner)
Week 10: 122.92 - 118.2 (Melvin Gordon outperforms Gurley, over 40% of Wentz's yards and 100% of his TDs go to Ertz, Mixon underperforms while Kerryon breaks out on bench).
Let's just hope Eric comes back next year to play instead of destroying all of Yahoo's servers.

The "Wait Til Next Year"
11. David Y Team
While not mathematically eliminated, David will have a hard time coming back to nab a playoff spot. Bell's non-existent return + lowest current total points + last 3 games against the 6th (w/o Breida and McCoy), 4th, and 3rd place teams smells like doom for me. This just goes to show, if you don't invest in your team name, your team won't invest in you.

FINAL PREDICTIONS
Byes: Simon, David K
Wild Card: Cho, Jon, Mike (Auto-Draft FTW!), Dan

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Week 10 - MOTW: Perennially Potent Player Partakes in Pressure Packed Playoff Push against Perpetually Positive Partner (of Jane)

I didn't realize how hard it would be to write an alliterative title but I'm quite proud of my work. If only Jane's name was Patty or Pam. I also may or may not have spent more time writing the title than the MOTW below.

MOTW
6. Fe-Brees vs. 8. Afghanistananis
Even with a win last week, Jon's team is fading fast. David Johnson still hasn't lived up to his top-5 billing, even after his OC got fired. AJ Green will miss a few weeks, his RB2 slot is still a mess until Michel can come back healthy, the Baltimore WRs are fading... but none of that seems to matter as long as Brees continues his MVP-worth season. He'll have a chance to solidify his position in the playoffs against a direct competitor for one of the spots. Dan has been one of the most opportunistic managers this season. He pounced on DeSean Jackson after David Y dropped him for no clear reason. He picked up Conner and has reaped the benefits of Bell missing over half the season. He's gotten one of the best kickers in the league when Mike realized he didn't want to keep 2 on his roster. He's even picked up Dion Lewis who has served as a solid RB2/3. This amazing luck on the waiver wire has allowed him to survive the loss of McKinnon, Jimmy G, and Ajayi and the underwhelming performance of Fitz and Keenan (until last week). If Dan can sneak into the playoffs, he might be able to make some noise and he's headed in the right direction, winning 4 of his last 5 and scoring over 100 points in each contest. How will each team fare in week 10?

Jon's Top 3:
1. Brees (QB) - 32
2. DJ (RB) - 24
3. Jets (DEF) - 21
I don't know if you guys saw the news but Brees actually had a private meeting with his doctor yesterday. He's been experiencing some back pain due to carrying the Saints AND Jon's team on his back towards the playoffs. For a man generously listed at 6 feet, that takes a toll. Luckily, it shouldn't affect his throwing at all, especially against a Cincinnati team that got torched by Matty Ice. As long as Dalton can make it competitive, expect Brees to whip out and slam his penis on everyone's collective desk. While I'm not a DJ believer for the rest of the year (I think he's a high-end RB2 at best) he should get the volume and opportunities he's used to against a Chiefs defense that is getting better but still gets destroyed on the ground. Add that to his usage as a receiver and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with 30+ touches. KC will win the game, but it doesn't mean Arizona won't score 21+ points. Expect a good chunk of that production to be on DJ's shoulders. The Jets are the lucky winners in the "who gets to play the Bills this week?" sweepstakes. They're just salivating at the chance to destroy what's left of Nathan Peterman's confidence. If he didn't have issues before, Bowles, on the hot seat, should throw everything he can to get a dominant victory for his team. All I can say is, I feel bad for the Bills D as they will never get to experience the glory of facing the Peterman/Allen/Anderson trio (other than in practice). Side Note: I think the reason the Buffalo defense has been good to this point is because they gain so much confidence practicing against the putrid offense. I'm sure some of you read The Ringer but there's an insane stat in one of their articles for those that don't: Buffalo QBs have thrown as many TDs to their own players as they have to opposing players. W. T. F.

Dan's Top 3:
1. Brown (WR) - 30
2. Wilson (QB) - 29
3. Allen (WR) - 21
The key to being a great wide receiver is to have a name that ends in an O that you can hold for long periods of time (e.g. ANTONIOOOOOOO, JULIOOOOOOO, DEANDREeeeee...EEEEEEEEE). The Panthers couldn't stop Humphries (a white guy) from torching them so can you imagine what Antonio is going to do? Russell Wilson always picks up his production in the second half of the season. I'm pretty sure Pete has told him multiple times the season starts in September, but Russell waits until it gets as cold in Seattle as it was in Wisconsin, where he played college ball. While the Rams can seem daunting, especially so due to their familiarity in the division, they just got torched by the Saints for 45 points. Russell will get his. Keenan Allen is finally coming back to form after a dreadful first half of the season. Tyrell Williams has been stealing all his TDs and the Melvin + Ekeler backfield has been so good on the short throws, Keenan has been the odd man out. But Rivers wasn't freezing out his man. He was just building up the skill of the other weapons in his arsenal so that when the games started to get more intense in November-February, he'd have more options than to throw 25 times to Keenan. Now that those other weapons are in place and other teams have to account for them, Keenan should get more singled coverage, where he thrives. He's not the fastest, biggest, or most athletic guys, but he's one of the best route-runners and intermediate threats in the league. I haven't seen many people shake off prime Richard Sherman at the line but that's what Keenan is capable of. Expect a big day against a Raiders team that just traded away their most talented remaining pass rusher. No pressure + Rivers's quick release + matchup problems = big day for the Chargers passing game.

X-Factor: Michel (RB, Jon) vs. Cohen (RB, Dan)
The RB2 battle between these two teams may end up deciding the victor in this particular battle. Michel has thankfully returned from injury to prevent a trade-rape of Jon. The question is, will he be 100%? And even if he is, will Belichick trust him like he did prior to the injury? The Titans run defense is stout but Michel should be able to get 12+ against them if he's able to get 20+ touches. Cohen had a dreadful showing last week but that was mostly due to the fact that the Bears defense got more opportunities to score than the offense. Once they were up by 20 points (which I think was mid-way through warm-ups) Cohen wasn't needed. Against a Detroit team that should put up more of a fight (and potentially make it a shootout on the fast turf), Cohen could be leaned on heavily to put the Bears in a position to succeed.

The Real X-Factor: Who is Jon going to play at WR3? Will Dez's contract get signed before this week's games? And even if it does, will he be able to contribute? Is Jon willing to go without a WR3 in a crucial matchup? Who would he drop on his team to pick up a bye-week filler?

Potential Starters Missing Due to Bye:
Jon: Brown (WR), Crabtree (WR)
Dan: Tucker (K)

Winner: Dan
I just think there's too much talent for Jon to overcome and we're not even sure who his third wide receiver is going to be. There's still a chance Michel isn't 100% which makes the RB2 battle tilt in Dan's favor. That, coupled with the WR talent disparity and Russell's ability to match Brees, should result in a win for Dan and a more exciting final 3 weeks of the season.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Week 9 - The Ideal Team

This week, we're going to run a little exercise that may piss everybody off. This is a team that anybody could have built to dominate the league. During the draft, I'm sure you would have gotten laughed out of the room with these picks, but 8 weeks in, you would most likely be undefeated (I didn't go week by week but I have a hard time believing this team could lose) and in prime position for the playoffs

Here were the rules I gave to myself:
1) A player must have been drafted with the 12th pick of that round to be considered eligible for a round. So if a player was taken with the 11th pick in the 4th round, he would only be eligible as a 3rd round selection because the 12th team would not have been able to take him.
2) I considered performance to this point (70%) as well as potential future performance (30%) when weighing who to select (by the way, I made up those percentages). Instead of doing this purely by current rankings, I considered future outlook as well. That's why a player like Lindsay (dominating touches on all 3 downs in the Broncos backfield that's been more than competent on offense with Case Keenum) made it while a player like Breida (who has performed well but is dealing with a potential nagging injury in a QB-less offense with Mostert nipping at his heels) did not.

I'll outline the draft with their current ranking, where they were actually drafted, and who drafted them. Then, we'll examine the ideal team position by position:

Draft
1st - Adam Thielen - #1 WR - 3rd round, 2nd pick by David Y
2nd - Tyreek Hill - #2 WR - 3rd round, 4th pick by Simon
3rd - Emmanuel Sanders - #9 WR - 6th round, 10th pick by Cho
4th - Robert Woods - #13 WR - 7th round, 2nd pick by David Y
5th - Patrick Mahomes II - #1 QB - 10th round, 10th pick by Cho
6th - George Kittle - #5 TE - 7th round, 12th pick by Biggie
7th - Matt Ryan - #3 QB - 8th round, 6th pick by David K
8th - Marlon Mack - #7 RB (season average PPG) - 9th round, 8th pick by Chris
9th - James Conner - #3 RB - Undrafted
10th - DeSean Jackson - #7 WR - 14th round, 11th pick by David Y
11th - Phillip Lindsay - #16 RB - Undrafted
12th - Chicago - #2 DEF - 14th round, 3rd pick by Paul
13th - James White - #10 RB - Undrafted
14th - Harrison Butker - #7 K (removing inactive kickers) - 15th round, 5th pick by Jon
15th - Eric Ebron - #3 TE - Undrafted

Depth Chart
QB: Mahomes II (33.62, #1), Ryan (28.59, #3)
Other than week 5, when both QBs scored under 20 points, you can't go wrong with either option. I don't see this team ever benching Mahomes but Ryan is an over-qualified backup.

WR: Thielen (16, #1), Hill (15.38, #2), Jackson (13.04, #7), Sanders (12.73, #9), Woods (11.78, #13)
Having the top 2 WRs is always a recipe for success but to top that off with 3 guys behind them who are all in the WR1 conversation? That's unreal. The WR3 spot can be changed out based on match ups/bye weeks and, more importantly, none of these guys will be scoring against the ideal team.

RB: Conner (21.17, #3), White (14.29, #10), Mack (17.43, #7), Lindsay (11.34, #16)
This is definitely the "weakest" of the positions on the ideal team. This is because the RBs taken in the first two rounds usually pan out for the teams that take them (my condolences to Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette owners). But 2 Top 10 RBs along with an emerging top 10 back in Mack will allow this team to compete with any other team in the league. Mack may step into the RB1 role on this team if his production continues in Indy and Conner sees a drop-off with Bell's return.

TE: Ebron (10.16, #3), Kittle (9.05, #5)
Other than Ertz, Kelce, and Gronk (is he though in 2018?), there are no sure things at TE anymore. So having 2 top 5 options is more than adequate for FF in 2018.

K: Butker (9.75, #7)
While there have been kickers who have skewed averages due to 20+ point weeks, Butker has been consistent in a high-scoring offense and should continue to reap the benefits of the Mahomes Show.

DEF: Chicago (10.14, #2)
The Rams have a had a slightly higher average but Chicago has been better on a week to week basis. They're almost matchup proof (as long as Mack plays) and we were able to wait 3 extra rounds to get them.

Average PPG: 143.55 (!!!)
I know the scoring in the NFL has been bonkers this year but to put that number into perspective, only 2 teams have topped that number in a given week (Simon - Week 1, David K - Week 4).

Honorable Mentions:
RB:
- Joe Mixon: He's been a top 10 RB but I would have to use a 1st or 2nd round pick on him. I'd rather dominate the WR position than take a RB that's missed 2 games.
- Sony Michel: Went a little too early (7th round) for me to consider using a 6th rounder on him with so many other options on the board. Plus, we're not quite sure what the effects of his injury will be.
- Nick Chubb: While I believe in his talent, I couldn't take him over any of the other backs, especially with things so uncertain in Cleveland
- Matt Breida: As mentioned earlier, he's performed well in place of McKinnon but we don't know whether or not he'll be back to 100% this season and his offensive situation is looking bleak.
- TJ Yeldon: He's performed better than Lindsay on the year (12 PPG) but with Fournette possibly returning and Carlos Hyde taking some carries, his ROS outlook is bleaker than most.

WR:
- Calvin Ridley: He's cooled off after a hot start. Still, a decent option but the 5 above him are more consistent.
- Kenny Golladay: Almost exact same scoring pattern as Ridley (hot start, cool recently). Once again, the better options made the cut.
- Tyler Boyd: Boyd is right behind Woods in scoring average but his booms and busts are more difficult to depend on.

QB:
- Jared Goff: I almost took him over Ryan due to his system but he was a little too far behind (bottom half of QB1s) in performance so far and their ROS outlook is about even.
- Andrew Luck: The closest cut, he's been a top 5 QB so far and should continue slinging it. I wouldn't be upset if you replaced Ryan with Luck.

TE:
- Jared Cook: His boom or busts have been too high and low. But the weeks he booms? Almost no other TE can match his production. His ROS outlook is great too with no Pooper Cooper to compete with for targets.

One interesting observation: the 4th and 5th round in the draft were rough. Who was the best pick? Nobody really panned out from these 2 rounds, even though at this point, you're still drafting key starters. I'd say Cam was the best pick as he's produced as a top 5 QB or Ertz who has been a top 3 TE on a weekly basis. Outside of those 2, you've got a few bright but non-elite players (Juju, Cooks, Dion Lewis), some unlucky injuries (McKinnon, Ajayi), and a slew of underachievers (Cooper, Allen Robinson, Graham, Freeman, Lamar Miller, Demaryius Thomas, Goodwin, DeShaun Watson). It was weird that in the 3rd-5th round, I couldn't find any major value picks for the ideal team.

One other note: David Y dropped both Woods and Jackson and now starts Funchess and Lockett. May God have mercy on his soul.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Week 8 - MOTW

We got a big one today (TWSS) so let's dive right into it!

MOTW
7. Kerryon MyWaywardSon vs. 8. Berries 'n Kareem
While there is a fierce matchup between Cho and Jon to get a bye in week 14, a little bit further down the table, 2 teams are fighting for their playoff lives. They say (and by they, I mean just me) that the 7th loss is the loss that will leave you out of the playoffs due to the fact that the 7th loss drops you below .500. And outside of an extremely weird season, the top 6 teams will usually have more wins than losses (just like in the NFL!). Jung looked to be an overly lucky team in the beginning of the season due to his higher win total compared to his expected wins based on points. Eric has been on the flip side of that, scoring the 4th highest in the league (only 11.1 points, less than 2 points per week, behind 2nd place), with only 3 wins to show for it. They collide in week 8 with huge stakes on the line: a win gets them back to .500, where a 3-2 rest of season gets them to the playoffs (most likely) but a loss puts them at 3-5, needing a 4-1 stretch, just to have a chance at sniffing the postseason.

Eric's Top 3:
1. Gurley (RB) - 27
2. Mixon (RB) - 23
3. Gronk (TE) - 19
Clearly the strength of Eric's team lies in his backfield. Gurley should continue his monster season against a middle-of-the-pack Packers run D. An interesting aside: I wonder if the Rams success will decrease Gurley's value if they clinch the NFC by week 14 or 15 OR if his record-breaking pace will just increase his reps. This on-field storyline could help determine Eric's fantasy season. Mixon has drawn comparisons to a middle-class man's Bell and when you watch him, you can see glimpses of what make the comparisons apt. His patience behind the line, catching ability, and breaking tackles is reminiscent of Bell (pour one out for David Y, who continues to wait on his return). I can't see him struggling against a Bucs front that just got gashed for over 4 YPC against a rookie in his first start. Gronk should return with a bang against a Bills defense that has a strong secondary and front four but lack some LB talent. Also, in his career, he's absolutely KILLED the Bills. In 13 career games, he's caught 79 YPG, been targeted over 7 times per game, and has 12 TDs (almost 1 per game!). Additionally, any production Gronk gets helps to negate the damage done by Brady.

Jung's Top 3:
1. Brady (QB) - 31
2. Hunt (RB) - 21
2. Patriots (DEF) - 18
Jung is going all in on the Patriots (especially if he follows my advice below) this week and it seems like a wise choice to do so. If Luck can drop over 30 points on the Bills, why wouldn't Brady (who has historically dominated this matchup)? We move on to Hunt who dominated the Broncos in the last matchup. Even when they had the No Fly Zone, the Broncos always gave up more than desired on the ground. Expect them to game plan a little more for Hunt this time around, especially after he gashed them at Mile High, but Chiefs + Arrowhead + Expected Lead is going to be enough yards and scoring opportunities for Hunt to be a top-end RB1. Lastly, the Patriots defense is salivating thinking about the different QB options they will be facing. Do they get the inexperienced rookie Josh Allen? Do they get Nate "I'm pretty sure I can throw better than him" Peterman? No, they get Derek "I was born before fantasy football was a thing" Anderson, who has had 10 days to learn an entire playbook (which doesn't seem like it was a very creative playbook to begin with). Additionally, no Shady + weak talent at the skill positions is going to mean a long day for the Bills. Expect a low scoring game for the Bills offense, at least 3 turnovers, numerous sacks, and a potential defensive TD for the Patriots.


X-Factor: Stafford (QB, Eric) vs. White (RB, Jung)
I'm highlighting two guys that aren't currently in the roster at the time of writing but I think could make the top 3 in scoring if they are started. Stafford gets a still formidable, but no Legion of Boom, defense on a fast track at home in the dome. Outside of a disastrous week 1, Stafford hasn't scored under 19 points and this game has a chance to be a shootout. While the Jags haven't been as good as Jalen Ramsey has advertised, I think they still have the talent to give Wentz a hard time, especially with the energizing chants of the home crowd. If I were Eric, I'd start Stafford. On the other side, Ingram gets a tough Vikings front that is recovering from its weird 2 game slide. Even though Ingram is the lead back, he still splits work with Kamara and he struggled in both meetings against the Vikings last year (11 touches for 71 yards in the regular season, 11 touches for 28 yards in the playoffs, both in Minnesota, as the game on Sunday will be). The Vikings defense returns almost all the same players from those 2 games and should make it a tough day for Ingram. Instead, Jung should look to play James White. He should naturally have a bigger role with Michel out and the Bills have gotten completely destroyed the last couple of weeks by backs that may not have as much talent as White (Mack: 21 for 159 and 2 TDs, Derrick Henry: 5.6 YPC, Aaron Jones + Ty Mont: 19 for 156 and a TD). Additionally, a few short TDs from Brady would allow Jung to double-dip in TDs.

Potential Starters Missing Due to Bye:
Eric - Ridley (WR)
Jung - None

Winner: Eric
While the Patriots should dominate the Bills, leading to a great potential fantasy day for Jung, I have a feeling that they'll cannibalize each other to an extent. Let's say the Patriots score 2 defensive TDs. Will Brady throw much longer in the game? Or let's say Brady stakes them a 3 TD lead. Does the defense start relaxing and give up a few garbage scores? Will they start resting players to prevent injuries? This married with the fact that Gurley is unstoppable and that the best receiver may be on Eric's side (I like DT in his matchup against the Chiefs, kind of interesting though that none of the WRs made the top 3 or X Factor on either team), I'm going to have to go with Eric getting one step closer to the playoffs. One other interesting tidbit: If Eric and Jung had played weeks 1-7 against each other, Eric would be up 4-3, meaning this one could be a close matchup. BUT of those 3 wins by Jung, 2 of them are by less than .2 points (Week 2 by .18 and Week 3 by .04 (!!!)). I hope this becomes a nail biter like the Cho v. Paul matchup last week. The Monday night battles make great entertainment for other owners whose weeks have already wrapped up.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

The Best Sleepers So Far

Usually as the snake has gone back and forth 5 times in the draft and we prepare to start the 11th round, we don't expect to find much value. The chat has died down, the defenses and kickers are starting to come off the board, and most of us have just queued up a few players we have irrational hopes for. But every once in a while, you find a treasure trove, a gold mine. The following players were drafted in the dead time in the draft but are providing real fantasy impact through the first 6 weeks. These may be the picks that end up winning the league. Let's start by taking a look a few guys who didn't make the cut:

Guys drafted a round or two early to be sleepers for this post:
Tarik Cohen - Dan Park - Round 9
Current Production: 20th best RB, mid-tier RB2
Tarik has benefited more from Nagy's system than Jordan Howard has. He's not only making up the value difference in the rounds they were taken; he has surpassed Howard's production.

Andrew Luck - Paul Kim - Round 9
Current Production: 6th best QB, mid-tier QB1
Luck has come out firing, with no regards or worries about the shoulder issues that have plagued him. He'll continue to be a gunslinger for an Indy team that has to throw to stay alive in games. Even without TY or Doyle, he's been able to put up impressive numbers.

Kenny Golladay - Dan Park - Round 10
Current Production: 15th best WR, high-end WR2
Golladay has surpassed Jones in the Lions pecking order and may surpass Tate due to his ridiculous athleticism and catch radius. With the threat of Kerryon in the backfield, the downfield plays should open up for him to continue his success.

Patrick Mahomes - Brian Cho - Round 10
Current Production: Number 1 QB, best QB1
Who would have known that Mahomes would be this good? Other than a 15 point "dud," he hasn't scored less than 24 points in a week and surpassed 30 points 4 times (including a 50-burger). With the KC defense struggling, he'll continue to get opportunities.

Real Steals:
Honorable Mentions:
Geronimo Allison - Eric Lee - Round 11
Current Production: Number 26 WR, high-end WR3
Comparable to TY Hilton (3rd round), Fuller (7th round)
He's done well with the opportunities that have been provided to him. He's missed a few weeks with injury but he's got a great QB throwing to him and has earned his trust on the long ball.

Chris Godwin - Paul Kim - Round 12
Current Production: Number 29 WR, mid-tier WR3
Comparable to Fuller (7th round), Goodwin (5th round)
A third option in a revitalized Bucs offense, he was a steal but Paul may have grabbed the wrong Bucs receiver (see below). But anytime you can get a starter in this range, you've made a great pick.

Jared Goff - Chris Chung - Round 14
Current Production: Number 11 starting QB, low-end QB1
Comparable to Cousins (6th round), Wentz (9th round)
Usually in round 14, you're just looking to get a solid backup QB for your QB1's bye week. But Chris got the QB in one of the most prolific offenses this season. McVay has made Goff a star and we don't see any signs of slowing down.

Top 5:
5. John Brown - Jon Lee - Round 14
Current Production: Number 27 WR, high-end WR3
Comparable to TY Hilton (3rd round), Fuller (7th round)
John Brown has always had some issues in Arizona with injuries but crab cakes seem to be the cure. He's Flacco's favorite target and he uses his speed to get behind the secondary. If there's one thing Flacco is known for, it's his arm strength so expect this combination to keep finding success.

4. Matt Breida - David Kim - Round 12
Current Production: Number 18 RB, mid-tier RB2
Comparable to Hyde (6th round), Lynch (6th round)
Breida had some luck as McKinnon went down before the season began, but he's still had to stave off Alfred Morris to stay relevant. He's done more than an adequate job and he should continue to produce in Shanahan's offense. Expect him to get more involved in the short pass game with Beathard needing more check down options.

3. Tyler Lockett - Jon Lee - Round 11
Current Production: Number 23 WR, low-end WR2
Comparable to Diggs (2nd round), OBJ (1st round)
With a new contract, many players seem to falter but Lockett has only been out there to prove that the contract was worth it. He's been producing at the same level as a few first and second round picks. Wilson usually improves as the season goes on, which can only mean better things for Lockett.

2. Calvin Ridley - Eric Lee - Round 13
Current Production: 16th best WR, high-end WR2
Comparable to Emmanuel Sanders (6th round), Julio Jones (2nd round)
Julio Jones in the first round or Calvin Ridley in the 13th? Even with a 0 point performance in week 1, he's producing at the same level of the guy that lines up on the opposite side of the field as him. He's been more touchdown dependent than most on the list but it shows that Ryan trusts Ridley in the Red Zone. The duo of Alabama receivers continue to power this offense so expect many more looks in the future.

1. DeSean Jackson - David Yim - Round 14
Current Production: 5th best WR, mid-tier WR1
Comparable to Antonio Brown (1st round), DeAndre Hopkins (1st round)
Poor David. Why he decided to drop DeSean after grabbing such a steal is beyond me. He had one bad game with 37 yards but he's been on fire this season. He's slowed a bit since Winston has come on but he's actually getting more targets than before. It'll be hard to keep up this WR1 pace he's been on but even if he slips to WR2 or high-end WR3 status, that's an amazing find in the 14th round.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Sorry No MOTW...

Because baby Jonah was born on Monday!

Please excuse the lack of an update this week. Just too exhausted to write one at the moment.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Thursday, October 4, 2018

Week 5 - MOTW

David Kim is slacking at work and needs something to read so here we go!

MOTW
6. Berries 'n Kareem vs. 7. The Glory Hogans
While there is a rare 1 v 2 match up and even a 3 v 4 match up, both David and Cho got covered last week. Additionally, those two teams (along with Mike [who by the way, auto-drafted, meaning 8 people are performing worse than a guy who didn't care enough to be at the draft]) should be featured in future MOTWs. So let's give some love to a matchup between 2 2-2 teams that are jockeying for playoff position. While it's too early to say that a loss in week 5 would be catastrophic for either team, a win here provides a .500 road to the playoffs while a loss creates a 2 win deficit that must be overcome with a slew of bye weeks yet to come. Jung and Paul have both had trouble maintaining consistent success and making the playoffs but this could be a good week to start a new trend.

Jung's Top 3:
1. Brady (QB) - 36
2. Lynch (RB) - 18
3. Bryant (K) - 14
Brady has always loved destroying the Colts and with a newfound resurgence after a 1-2 start, along with the return of Edelman, the further incorporation of Josh Gordon into their offense, and a young Colts defense who have not faced Belichick yet, I see Brady going off. The only thing limiting his performance may be that due to the blowout, he doesn't need to play half of the 4th quarter. Reich has proven himself to be an idiotic coach (why would you hand a division rival a win instead of taking the half win with the tie?) and I'm sure he will be outsmarted by the duo across the field. Lynch has Gruden's trust and as the Raiders try to play football from the 90s, Lynch will continue to benefit. A kicker being one of your top 3 scorers usually signals a poor week from the rest of your team and that could be the case for Jung. Adams will be covered by Slay, Hunt faces a tough Jaguars defense, and Fuller will face a stingier than expected Cowboys secondary. Bryant will be in a high scoring game against the Steelers who can't seem to stop anything. Fast-paced, with tons of red zone opportunities should allow the ever-reliable Bryant to break out with a massive game.

Paul's Top 3:
1. Juju SS (WR) - 26
2. Coleman (RB) - 21
3. Luck (QB) - 21
I just realized that Smith-Schuster actually stands for Super-Saiyan. Evidenced by his Rasengan celebration earlier this season, Juju is very aware of the anime world. So much so, he probably is from the anime world. That's the only way to explain his other-worldly start to the season... or the fact that AB is getting triple teamed on every pass play. Nonetheless, expect him to have a great game against an Atlanta team that lost it's best corner, best safety, and best linebacker. If this game doesn't post at least 100 combined points from the two teams, I will be highly disappointed. The current over/under is 57.5 meaning a 31-28 score would win that bet. You're telling me that these two defenses are limiting each other to 4 TDs? I expect the cover to occur before the end of the 3rd quarter. (Sorry, I got distracted by gambling). Coleman is another beneficiary of this matchup. Freeman may return but he's going to get the lion's share of pass targets. With Julio and Ridley taking all the attention, Coleman should break a bunch of big plays from the backfield. Luck will get his share of opportunities against the Patriots, but with no Hilton or Doyle, I dont' think Hines, Ebron, and Grant are enough for him to put up a big line, even when playing from behind. Expect a lot of frustrating 3 and outs.

X-Factor: Hunt (RB, Jung) vs. OBJ (WR, Paul)
Both of these guys could be held to less than 6 points or explode for 20+. Hunt goes against a stingy defense BUT there are two factors working in his favor: 1. The Jags are marginally easier to run on than to pass on and 2. Mahomes is not a human being so if anyone can find a chink in the Jags armor, it's going to be him (BTW, Mahomes is my new favorite player in the NFL. It's nice to have one since Manning retired [actually, since his arm turned into a noodle in 2015]. I think a combination of Julio, OBJ, Zeke, and Tyreek Hill had filled the void since them but this is official). OBJ has struggled because Eli has struggled because the O-line has struggled. However, after his outburst on the sidelines last week, expect the Giants to dial up his number. A lot. Expect 12+ targets. The result will depend on how many of those he ends up catching.

Winner: Paul
This one is close but I just like Paul's match ups slightly more than Jung's. He's got a few more guys that could blow up and Edelman should mitigate some of the Brady damage. Additionally, he's still got guys like Lindsay, Hines, and Lewis that he may want to consider over Cook for a higher floor AND ceiling.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Week 4 - MOTW! (New Format!)

I'm switching the MOTW format for this week. I'll see how I like it and revert back if it sucks.

The majority of teams get 55-65% of their points from their top 3 players i.e. 33% of the roster. So instead of breaking down the entire roster from top to bottom, I'm going to focus on who I believe will be the top 3 point-getters for each team. Additionally, I'll identify an X-factor, who may swing the match up for a tight win or an unexpected loss.

MOTW
2. Jacked Up! vs. 4. Orange MFN Charizard
A rematch of the final from last year, David K. has quite the grudge to avenge. Of course, Cho doesn't know or care about any of this so he's taking this like any other week.

Cho's Top 3:
1. Mahomes (QB) - 36
2. Zeke (RB) - 26
3. Jordan Howard (RB) - 23
Cho's running backs have some juicy match ups. Usually home + beatable opponent + weak QBs + porous run defenses is a perfect recipe for 20+ fantasy points. Cho's team got a lucky break and got that perfect formula for BOTH of his backs. However, neither of them are outscoring Mahomes who is on pace to throw 69 TDs this year. 69 (heh). Denver can try to slow him down with Miller and Chubb but worst case, he'll throw a couple picks. This won't stop him for throwing for 300+ yards and 3+ TDs.

David K's Top 3:
1. Kamara (RB) - 29
2. Dalton (QB) - 26
3. Kelce (TE) - 18
Kamara is a monster and he gets to play a NYG team that really hasn't been able to stop anybody. And now they get to face Charizard with no water type Pokemon. That's a recipe for disaster. Dalton should be involved in a nice shootout with a Falcons defense that has personnel dropping like flies. I think he loses the game but puts up a nice 25+ point effort. Kelce is an interesting play here as he should take advantage of a linebacking corp that cannot cover TEs (Dissly, a slow white guy, had 16 points on them). Additionally, he'll help mitigate Mahomes' yardage points for every throw that comes his way.

X-Factor: Sanders (WR, Cho) vs. Michel (RB, David K)
Unfortunately, this is the story of diverging X-Factors. Sanders, who has found new life with Keenum at the helm, should tear up the Chiefs secondary that couldn't even stop Beathard from leading some scoring drives. Michel struggled with the opportunity that came his way last week and it doesn't take much to lose Belichick's trust. I can't see him getting more than 12 touches and I'm not sure he'll do enough with them to help mitigate Cho's running backs.

Winner: Cho
David K fails to get revenge today but it's not entirely his fault. The match ups for Cho's running backs are as good as they'll be all year and the lack of a 2nd running back is going to hurt David K in this match up.

Bonus mini-MOTW
11. Afghanistananis vs. 12. David Y Team
No team's chances are over until they lose 7 games but falling into an 0-4 hole means you have to go 7-3 the rest of the way. While 6-4 isn't remarkably easier, it's definitely more feasible than the former. One of these teams will take a step in the right direction as one of them have to win this matchup of no-win teams (unless there is a tie, which has only happened once since 2010, so let's say it won't happen).

Winner: Dan
One of these teams doesn't deserve to be 0-3. While he has cooled off after a 130 point week 1, he still has enough talent on his team to beat David Y. 2 true WR1s, Wilson against a terrible Cardinals team, and the return of Ajayi should all be enough to get the W. Unless Cousins and Thielen connect for 3 TDs on Thursday night, I'll say this is over before SNF.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Week 3 - Still Too Early...

... for a MOTW.

If 2 weeks in, we could decide who was the best team, I would take the money and run. However, we still have a long 11 regular season weeks and another 3 playoff weeks. Therefore, we'll have to hold off one more week before a proper MOTW can be written. I was going to write one on Dan and Biggie as there are a few story lines to keep it interesting (e.g. both 0-2, Dan taking Conner, two elder statesmen battling it out) but Dan's record doesn't really reflect his team's great play. I think we'll save it for week 4 when we could have teams with a combined 5 wins facing off against each other (David K. vs. Cho, Jon vs. Mike are two possibilities).

So I'm not sure what to write about for this week. I'll just post some random thoughts:
  • Apparently marriage is the key to fantasy football. The top 6 players are all married while the bottom 6 are not. For those that thought marriage would take away the time required to do fantasy football research, one thing is clear: marriage gives you a great start to your fantasy football season. Let's see if these findings hold until the end of the year
  • Based on the points he's scored, Dan should be 2nd. He's unfortunate to be in 9th place but I wouldn't be surprised if he's over .500 by the end of week 7.
  • Nobody likes seeing undeserving players at the top of the table but luckily I don't think anybody has that inglorious honor 2 weeks in. Jung is a hair under 200 points but only Dan and Eric may have a bone to pick with him. If Dan can normalize, we won't have as much dysfunction as we did last year when comparing PF to W-L record.
That's pretty much all I have for today. I can already hear David K. grumbling about not having airport reading material and Eric giving me some choice words under his breath but get ready for some sick MOTWs in the coming week. I may be tweaking the format a bit so look for a breath of fresh air. Also, look forward to a mid-season post on re-visiting the draft analysis done before the season. We'll get to see which picks actually panned out and which ones busted. When we compare it to the previous post, we'll see moments that make me look like a genius. And moments that make me look like an idiot. But we'll forgive the latter.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Week 1 Win = Championship?

Aren't you all glad football is back? The joys of watching 11 straight hours of football is hard to describe. The cherry on top this week was that the five games I decided to watch (flipping between CBS/FOX and outside of NFL Redzone running on my computer) were ridiculously entertaining. Browns Steelers gave us a tie but it seemed like both teams had multiple chances to win the game. Bucs Saints brought the return of Fitzmagic in a shootout for the ages. In the afternoon slate, Tyreek stole the show against the Chargers and the Broncos and Seahawks had exciting plays galore that came down to the final drive. And of course, the final chapter of this night was a tale of two halves: Mack + Rodgers. All this is to say that I can't believe I was able to survive 7 months with no football.

This week, since it's still too early for a MOTW, we're going to look back at the correlation of week 1 performance to the team's eventual standing in the league, and what that means for the teams that won or lost this week. All data is from when the first year of a 12 man league (2011) until last year.

Some observations:
1) Week 1 performance seems to indicate some weird trends. While it doesn't predict the champion (4 losers of week 1 have been champ vs. 3 winners of week 1), it paints a clear picture on placing in the league. Only 6 of the 42 week 1 losers were able to place and win money while 15 of the 42 winners have done the same. Additionally, all of the 2nd place finishers have won week 1.
2) I also did some research on what your week 1 score was vs. how you perform in the league. There's definitely a bigger correlation than just the ability to win or lose in the first week. Anyone who has scored less than 70 points in the first week has never placed, with only 2 of the 7 teams even making the playoffs. The ability to score high correlates to placing as well as the ability to score in explosive bunches is key to winning matchups.
- 115+: 2 championships, 2 runner-ups, 3 third (7 total)
- 100-115: 1 championship, 3 runner-ups, 2 third (6 total)
- 85-100: 2 championships, 2 runner-ups, 1 third (5 total)
- 70-85: 2 championships, 0 runner-ups, 1 third (3 total)
- <70: 0, 0, 0
3) Next, I combined the two groups to see if being unlucky (high scoring and losing) or lucky (low scoring and winning) carries with the team through that season. There were 6 instances of teams that scored 100+ and lost their first week. 4 didn't make the playoffs and only 1 was able to place. On the flip side, there were 4 teams that scored less than 85 and won (nobody won scoring less than 70), of which only 1 was able to make the playoffs.

What does this mean for our league this season?
1) Bad news for Biggie as he was unable to break the 70 point marker in week 1. If he can place this year, he will make history as the first team to do so with such a terrible start.
2) Dan shouldn't fret too much about losing with the second highest score this week. History has shown that there is a higher correlation to score than the actual win or loss. Let's just hope he doesn't add to the data for 'unlucky' teams carrying that unluckiness to the end.
3) There actually weren't that many outliers this season in week 1 so the teams that deserved to win won and the teams that deserved to lose lost. David Y might consider himself a bit unlucky but it's not unheard of.

Some other random observations about team names as I was gathering this data:
1) Cho has never changed his name. Don't go running to him for creative ideas.
2) Jon and David Y (sneakily) come up with the corniest names. I won't even repeat them here as they are horrifying. They try to balance humor with being appropriate and the latter ruins their ability to fulfill the former.
3) David K and Paul are the opposite of their cousin and always come up with the most vulgar names. Never change.
4) Dan Park, I love that you made my job easy. Office Reference = Dan. Just in case you're throwing your hat in the air from the praise I'm bestowing upon you, I have a great line for that: "May your hats fly as high as your dreams"... I know nobody is graduating! Wow. Relax, spazzy boy.

Let me know if you'd like the data to play around with it yourself. Just shoot me an e-mail and I can send it to you. Also, if anyone has incriminating photos of Chris Chung, please provide so I can update the banner.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Thursday, September 6, 2018

Welcome to 2018! - Draft Analysis

Welcome to 2018! Sorry I've been so swamped to give everyone a proper welcome or update the cover photo to replace Alex with Chris but I'm guessing you're here for the content anyways.

Let's get right into the draft. Just a few words to start: I think it's really impressive how much better our entire league has gotten at drafting. Nobody picking 3 QBs, nobody drafting 2 TEs, nobody reaching for a QB in the 2nd round. It's quite honestly a testament to how much we humiliate the terrible draft choices.

Anyways, on to the good stuff. We'll go in the order of the draft. I'll give an overall grade on the draft and an overall grade on the team name as well:

Don't Stop BellLeveon (Eric Lee)
Best Pick: 6th Round, Kerryon Johnson
Worst Pick: 2nd Round, Joe Mixon
Sleeper (10th round or later): 13th Round, Calvin Ridley
Overall Grade: A
Team Name Grade: F

Eric had a very solid draft, with little to no surprises. He took Gurley at 1 and took Gronk at 3 to solidify the core of his team. He may have a steal with Johnson who looks poised to be a 1000+ rusher for the Lions for the first time in 4 years. Joe Mixon may have more opportunity this year, but I'm not so sure I'm sold on his ability to deliver. He's still got Gio poaching 3rd down carries and in his action last year, nothing screamed "breakout potential" in 2018. Nonetheless, he may have found a gem in Ridley in the 13th round, especially if Matt Ryan expects to get to the heights he reached 2 years ago, he'll need more than Julio to get him there. I could see Ridley exploding for 900+ yards and 8+ TDs if the Falcons can get back to their scoring ways.

As for his name, he doesn't even have Le'veon anymore. May I suggest a Gurley themed name?

David Y Team (David Yim)
Best Pick: 8th Round, Devin Funchess
Worst Pick: 1st Round, Le'veon Bell
Sleeper: 15th Round, John Ross
Overall Grade: C
Team Name Grade: F-

The worst pick by David's team isn't entirely his fault. Other than Bell, who could have known that he would be taking a stand and missing games in order to get his money? Outside of that, he may have reached on a few others like Kelce (2nd before Gronk) or Tate (4th before Demaryius or fellow teammate Marvin Jones) but he may have found a nice gem in Funchess. Cam and the Panthers look like they want to play fast-paced, high-scoring offense and Funchess should be the main beneficiary. While CMC and Olsen are the white boys getting off-season hype, Funchess is the clear number one receiver and showed some chemistry with Newton last year. If John Ross can elevate his game to be more than a speedster who runs fly routes opposite of AJ Green (Bengals may be another team ready to bounce back on offense), David's receiving corp may be targeted in trade talks.

As for his name, he has the worst in the league by far. It's the Yahoo default name. Change the name, man.

Jacked Up! (Brian Cho)
Best Pick: 3rd Round, Jordan Howard
Worst Pick: 5th Round, Corey Davis
Sleeper: 12th Round, Michael Gallup
Overall Grade: A-
Team Name Grade: D

Grabbing a back like Jordan Howard, who could be argued to be a top 20 player, in the third round is how you win fantasy leagues. A great nab by Cho, both as a fantasy player and a Bears fan. Howard should be a workhorse, seeing 20+ touches every game. Corey Davis was a little bit of a risky pick as his QB still can't throw more TDs than INTs and Davis hasn't really shown that he's ready to be a number one option. However, maybe that won't matter if Gallup lives up to the hype around him in the pre-season. With no number 1 receivers on the Cowboys depth chart, Gallup could run away with the job if he can forge a connection with Dak. If Dak throws for 250 yards a game, somebody's gotta catch them, and I think Gallup has as good a chance as anybody else.

As for his name, it's old news. I don't think Cho has changed his name since I started playing fantasy football with him. However, it did win him the ship last year (yes, I attribute it all to the name, not his fantasy play) so I'll bump it a letter grade.

Fe-brees (Jon Lee)
Best Pick: 4th Round, Royce Freeman
Worst Pick: 7th Round, Trey Burton
Sleeper: 14th Round, John Brown
Overall Grade: B+
Team Name Grade: D

Mr. Optimistic lived up to the reputation of his name with both his best and worst pick. His best pick shows a rookie running back that may start off slow in a time share but has clearly been the better back during the pre-season. As the season wears on, expect Freeman to be a bell-cow back, hogging 80% of the backfield touches. I know Burton had some good weeks and flashed high-level athleticism at his position in the last few weeks of 2017, I just don't see his QB situation being good enough for him to be taken in the 7th round. I think he may have still been available in the 9th and I'm not even sure he was the best option left on the board. In John Brown, Jon gets a burner who is looking to bounce back on a team where a QB with a big arm has newfound motivation to succeed. Sounds like a recipe for success.

As for his name, he also didn't change it but at least he drafted Brees to keep it relevant.

By the way, everybody congratulate him on his recent marriage!

Afghanistananis (Dan Park)
Best Pick: 2nd Round, Keenan Allen
Worst Pick: 4th Round, Jerick McKinnon
Sleeper: Waiver, John Conner
Overall Grade: B-
Team Name Grade: A-

Typing that team name was the hardest thing I had to do for this post. Seeing McKinnon tear his ACL had to hurt Dan. Not his fault, but with what we know now, it's clearly the worst pick as he used a 4th rounder to get 0 points. But all hope may not be lost. By grabbing Keenan Allen (arguably a top 4 fantasy WR) in the 2nd round after the likes of Julio and Michael Thomas (who are good in their own right but Allen may outscore them both) and then using his waiver to bolster his RB position with John Conner (who has been earning rave reviews and may play until week 10), Dan kept himself alive for this fantasy season, even after losing a stud.

As for his name, Dan knows the way to my heart. Office references are guaranteed at least a B+. It's not my favorite reference (some of Dan's better team names have been Dinkin Flicka and Oaky Afterbirth), but it's enough to get him that A-.

O-PI Awareness* Tour (David Kim)
Best Pick: 4th Round, Josh Gordon
Worst Pick: 2nd Round, Christian McCaffrey
Sleeper: 10th Round, Mike Williams
Overall Grade: B
Team Name Grade: B

Never draft a white guy in the NBA lottery. That is a tenet that I live my life by. That's where I got the basis of my Fantasy motto: never draft a white WR or RB in the first 2 rounds. David broke that when he went after CMC, a guy who couldn't average 4 YPC last year. I don't doubt Norv Turner trying to force feed him but with a competent backup in Anderson, how short will that leash be? Meanwhile, he went almost completely the opposite way with his Josh Gordon pick. Arguably the best receiver when he can lay off the pipe, in the 4th round, there is nobody with more talent and upside than Josh Gordon, especially with a competent QB throwing to him for the first time in his career. And for those of you who watched Hard Knocks, he looks like he's ready to commit and keep the bong in storage (at least until the offseason). Couple that with another high upside pick in Mike Williams, who is remembered for his dominance in Clemson games of yore, and David's WRs may carry him to the ship.

As for his team name, I like that he's using the name as a soap box to proclaim the unjust handling of the Texans game that cost him a ring. He's the Kaep of our league. However, the name isn't all that creative or funny. B for effort.

Shock the F'n World (Chris Chung [R])
Best Pick: 8th Round, Adrian Peterson
Worst Pick: 4th Round, Derrick Henry
Sleeper: 12th Round, Kelvin Benjamin
Overall Grade: B+
Team Name Grade: C+

Our lone newcomer this year, Chris was able to show that during his 7 years on the wait list to join this league, he hasn't let his fantasy skills deteriorate. He pulled in a solid haul, solidifying his team with a low risk, high reward pick in AP. As the only true bruiser in that backfield, I still believe in AP, even if he's 33 years old. And he may have to be thrust into action sooner than later on this team. Derrick Henry may not even be the best running back in his own backfield. Dion Lewis joined the Titans this offseason and is threatening to take away snaps and touches. The 4th round may have been a slightly high price to pay. Kelvin isn't in a great situation. A terrible QB, a terrible line, and a terrible offense overall. However, every team has to throw for at least 3,600 yards in today's NFL. Whose catching those for the Bills?

As for his name, he's named it after the eSports team, the San Francisco Shock. Wrong sport Chris. But I can appreciate the loyalty and effort (unlike half the league that didn't change their names).

Berries'n Kareem (Jung Kim)
Best Pick: 7th Round, Will Fuller V
Worst Pick: 3rd Round, Tom Brady
Sleeper: 10th Round, Kenny Stills
Overall Grade: B-
Team Name Grade: B-

Did everyone forget when Watson and Fuller lit the world on fire last year? I know teams will be able to better plan for it this year but even if they regress by 50%, Fuller would still produce at a borderline WR2/3 rate. His worst pick isn't an indictment on the pick itself. Brady is still a great QB who should put up numbers, even without a black receiver. However, the third round was too early as the only QB that should go before the 5th round is Rodgers. He may have panicked when Chris took Rodgers the pick before. Unless Brady has a 2007 season, it's hard to see this pick returning the proper value. Similar to Benjamin on Chris's team, Stills should get over 100 receptions this year for a floundering (pun) Dolphins team. With 100+ Landry targets to share, expect Stills to take a monster work load.

As for his name, it's a little cheesy but it flows nicely off the tongue. It's a family friendly name as well.... but that hurts you in this league. More offensive, more points.

The Glory Hogans (Paul Kim)
Best Pick: 8th Round, Jamaal Williams
Worst Pick: 3rd Round, Chris Hogan
Sleeper: 10th Round, Julian Edelman (with an exception)
Overall Grade: C+
Team Name Grade: A

Jamaal Williams may end up being the lead back for the best offense in the league. This means garbage time yards, checkdowns from the best QB in the game, and copious goal line chances (even if a large number are taken by Jimmy, there will be so many chances to share). But WTF was Chris Hogan in the 3rd round? First, he's white. Second, even if there are no other receivers on the team, there's still Gronk, Burkhead, White, and Edelman (eventually) who he has to deal with. Third, he was injured last year so there's a potential risk. Fourth, Brady is only allowed to have one favorite white receiver at a time and last I checked, it was Julian Edelman. Speaking of Edelman, I think he's a great find in the 10th round. Once he serves his suspension, he'll be solidly at a WR3 with some upside. So why would you draft both him and Hogan? You're not going to play them together. The logic baffles me.

As for his name, definitely my favorite this year. The only way to have beaten this would have been if Dan took Juju Smith-Schuster and made his name "Voodoo Mama Juju."

Just Forsett In (Mike Lee)
N/A

I will not unfairly punish Mike for not being able to attend the draft. Instead, I will punish him on a weekly basis whenever he is featured as the losing team in MOTWs.

As for his name, our league really needs to get better at changing our team names.

By the way, everybody congratulate him on his recent marriage!

trubiskuits (Rich Kim)
Best Pick: 5th Round, DeShaun Watson
Worst Pick: 7th Round, George Kittle
Sleeper: 11th Round, Chris Thompson
Overall Grade: A-
Team Name Grade: C-

Drafting DeShaun Watson 2 rounds after Rodgers and Brady is a win. I think he has the potential to put more points than the latter. Sure there's some injury risk, but you can take that on for 40 point weeks. The incomprehensible pick was Kittle in the 7th. With players like Jamaal Williams, AP, Barber, and Funchess available, he took a TE that has not done anything to even hint that he'll be a much better player this year. Will he be that much better than Doyle, Njoku, or Rudolph, who were all taken after him? Kittle may even be outplayed by Biggie's own 14th round pick, Tyler Eifert. If AP fails, Chris Thompson may be the big winner, if he isn't already. With checkdown king Alex Smith in town, Thompson should put up the numbers he was on pace to last year before his injury.

As for his name, I'm not quite sure what it's supposed to be. It's clearly a play on Trubisky (who Biggie doesn't even have the courage to roster) but is it a mix with triscuits? True biscuits?

Draft Winner: Eric Lee
With no real weaknesses and Gurley and Gronk ready to carry his team, Eric could win yet another title. He's like the San Franciso Giants of fantasy: every even year.

Draft Loser: David Yim
While his team isn't as bad as his name, some questionable picks and an uncertain lead back conundrum have left David scrambling and unsure of his team as the season is set to begin. McCoy may be a steal in the 5th round now that he's been cleared from the Commish's list, but his receivers look shaky.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim