Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Week 16 - Championship! And Consolation Championship!

It's finally here. What we've all been waiting for. And while the majority of the league is upset that they're not playing for anything this week, two teams are battling it out for the largest prize we've ever seen in this league. Let's take an in depth look at the positional battles and see where each team can seize an advantage and who is most likely to take home the $1,200.

For the purpose of this analysis, the trailing symbol indicates a high (^), medium (=), or low (v) option. So for example, a RB1v is a low tier RB1 while a RB2^ is a high tier RB2. The low tier RB1 is still better for fantasy purposes than the RB2^. This just helps us create more tiers for us to evaluate. The ranks are based on consensus fantasy experts rankings but will not be the holy grail for determining advantages. All ranks are up to date as of Wednesday.

QB:
Mahomes (1) QB^
vs.
Jackson (10) QBv, Ryan (11) QBv

Advantage: Cho
There's no contest here. Even with a non-plus matchup, Mahomes has been the best QB in the league. Simon needs to play the right QB to limit his damage.

RB:
Zeke (1) RB1^, Howard (24) RB2v, McGuire (23) RB2v
vs.
Saquon (4) RB1^, Chubb (5) RB1=, Carson (8) RB1=

Advantage: Simon
If they were playing 3 RBs, Simon would have a great leg up. His best RB is always a top 5 play, even after a down week against an underrated defense, and his other 2 RBs get great matchups against the Bengals and Chiefs. But Zeke will keep this one close as he gets a terrible Bucs line in a must-win game for the Cowboys. Both Howard and McGuire have beatable matchups as well so this shouldn't be a blowout as the rankings suggest.

WR:
Evans (13) WR2^, Davis (23) WR2v Moore (26) WR3^, Hamilton (47) WR4v
vs.
Hill (6) WR1=, Diggs (11) WR1v, Landry (24) WR2v, Pettis (28) WR3^

Advantage: Simon
Once again, Simon has slightly better depth but when you look at the top 3, the gap shrinks. Hill and Diggs are boom or bust and they're likely to be shadowed by Griffin and Slay, respectively. That could allow Evans to make up some ground, even against a stingy Cowboys defense. Davis faces a tough Redskins secondary that may result in Henry pounding the rock over and over but Moore has an excellent matchup against a burnable Falcons D. We'll see how the loss of Cam affects him this week. If Cho chooses to go with Hamilton, we'll expect a lot of targets but hold our breath on the final results. Landry could be the game-changer depending on which version we see on Sunday: will we get the touchdown threat running down the seams or will we see wasted throws on 5 yard attempts?

TE:
Uzomah (14) TE2^
vs.
Cook (6) TE1=

Advantage: Simon
Assuming Jordan Reed doesn't make a miraculous recovery, this is Simon's biggest advantage. Cook usually bounces back from poor weeks and he just had one last week. Uzomah has shown no reason to trust him, especially with Driskel under center. We'll see if this is the matchup that allows Simon to pull away.

K:
Fairbairn (4) K^
vs.
Legatron (1) K^

Advantage: Push
Both good kickers in great game situations. Greg the Leg gets a slight boost due to playing in a dome but the Rams offense has not looked good lately. Fairbairn should get plenty of opportunities in a shootout against Philly.

DEF:
Broncos (9) DEFv
vs.
Rams (1) DEF^

Advantage: Push
The Rams are the better defense against a rookie QB and a team they've already dominated this season. However, I believe the Denver rank is WAY to low. They may be playing in Oakland but Miller and Chubb should have a field day against one of the worst offenses in the league. Expect similar double digit performances from both defenses.

Winner: Simon
It looks pretty clear cut on paper but that's why we play the games.

As for the consolation bracket, let's do a quick rundown:
- Eric is playing Josh Allen. God help him.
- Receivers are a mediocre wash
- Eric's backfield > Jung's
- Jung is playing Hooper. May God also help him.
- Slight special teams edge to Eric
Winner: Eric
Congrats on your gift card! I'll contact you after your matchup with available vendors.

Good luck to all! Thanks for another great season!

Simon Kim

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