Thanks for everyone who could make it to the draft, with a special shout out to Mike, logging on during work hours. We had the liveliest chat in a while so I hope that this continues in the years to come. Let's hope Chris's no show isn't indicative of how he will perform his managerial duties on a day to day basis.
We're going to do a quick version of the draft analysis and then I want to give some more details on a "State of the League" survey that will go out in the next few weeks.
Just Forsett In (Mike Lee)
Best Pick: 2nd Round, Devonta Freeman
Worst Pick: 6th Round, Sammy Watkins
Sleeper: 14th Round, Jimmy Garoppolo
Grade: B+
If you haven't heard, I'm all in on the Atlanta offense this year. 13 of their 15 fantasy weeks (excluding their bye) are in a dome and the 2 non-dome games are in Carolina and SF, relatively warmer weather stadiums. Matt Ryan's struggle in bad weather is well documented so the entire Falcons offense should show more punch with this quirk in their schedule. Freeman should bounce back this season without Tevin Coleman. Sammy Watkins may play in the highest ceiling offense in the league, but his upside is quite limited. the Chiefs have drafted additional playmakers and with the addition of McCoy, that's a few less targets to spread around. Jimmy G has got some great weapons on offense that should make him an instant fantasy threat. Kyle Shanahan made Matt Ryan into an MVP so even if Jimmy isn't as talented, expect QB1 numbers.
Afghanistananis (Dan Park)
Best Pick: 4th Round, Kenny Golladay
Worst Pick: 2nd Round, Patrick Mahomes
Sleeper: 13th-15th, Trio of Patriots
Grade: B
All aboard the Golladay hype train! While he'll never be able to match Calvin Johnson's stats, Babytron should be able to put up low-end WR1 numbers as the focal point of the Lions passing attack. No more Tate should mean Kenny gets fed. While I love Patrick Mahomes, taking a QB in the 2nd round hampers the entire rest of your team. While Dan's running backs should be solid, his WRs talent and depth have taken a hit due to the high capital invested in the QB position. We'll see if Mahomes can continue the magic from last year. Never say die with the Patriots. While he's dropped Harry at this point, Brady and Gostkowski are great fliers in the last 3 rounds. Brady may not have been a QB1 last year, but you'd be foolish not to keep him as your backup QB in case he blows up. At kicker, Gostkowski may never reach the heights of a Tucker or Zuerlein, but he'll always finish the season in the top 6.
David Y Team (David Yim)
Best Pick: 3rd Round, Amari Cooper
Worst Pick: 1st Round, Ezekiel Elliott
Sleeper: 14th Round, Jordan Reed
Grade: C-
The 2nd Cowboy David took should be one of the stars of his team. Amari showed great chemistry with Dak, and while his TD totals should regress, he should still get 10 targets a game. As for the first Cowboy... when will David learn? Last year Bell, this year Zeke. Now, the situation is slightly different since Le'Veon was on an unsigned franchise tag and Zeke is under contract. But why take this risk 2 years in a row with tons of other options available? And if you take Zeke, why not handcuff with Pollard? He's since dropped him but Jordan Reed could have been a sneaky stash. It's always a big if, but IF Jordan Reed stays healthy, there's nothing keeping him from joining the Kelce, Kittle, Ertz class of TEs.
Fe-brees (Jon Lee)
Best Pick: 2nd Round, Mike Evans
Worst Pick: 5th Round, Duke Johnson Jr.
Sleeper: 10th Round, Geronimo Allison
Grade: C
While everyone is hyped up on Chris Godwin this year, I don't see why all the factors that should benefit Godwin won't benefit Evans as well. Evans is one of the best contested catch receivers in the league and if he gets better, cleaner looks, I don't think he's going to develop a case of spontaneous butterfingers. As for Duke Johnson, he's never been able to show he's a feature back type player, even when Cleveland was struggling and didn't have much competition in the backfield. Why would anyone believe that he's going to perform better than Lamar Miller behind the same o-line (Note: Texans have improved their o-line since the draft but there was no way to know this at the time)? Additionally, the addition of Hyde more likely than not pushes Duke into a 3rd down back role. I'm always a fan of drafting the slot receiver in Aaron Rodgers offenses since they have tons of opportunities to run after the catch. Allison in the 10th round is a great value pick and he could even usurp Corey Davis or Mike Williams of a starting spot.
Shock the F'n World (Chris Chung)
N/A
Grade: Absent
Yahoo drafted for him.
O-PI Awareness* Tour (David Kim)
Best Pick: 4th Round, Josh Jacobs
Worst Pick: 1st Round, Davante Adams
Sleeper: 15th Round, Kirk Cousins
Grade: B+
Josh Jacobs is going to be one of the few bell cow backs in the league. He's fast, he's strong, he can catch, he's young, he's got little competition, and he's in old-school Gruden's offense. We'll see if the line can create enough holes for him but he should get plenty of opportunity to thrive. The three backs on David's team, Mack and Mixon being the others, form a great trio that could all finish in the top 20. But while I love his 2-4 picks, his 1st pick was questionable. Will Davante Adams get a ton of balls thrown his way? Yes. But is it enough to pick over Nuk, or James Conner? No. While it's not egregious, as Davante is still a first rounder, we'll see if this is the difference between a solid playoff run and a championship. I do like the Rodgers/Davante stack strategy. David's truly going boom or bust with the Packers offense. Kirk Cousins was a QB1 last year and should develop further chemistry with Diggs and Thielen (and new addition Doctson). While Rodgers will start for David most weeks, Cousins should be a great insurance plan.
trubiskuits (Rich Kim)
Best Pick: 6th Round, Baker Mayfield
Worst Pick: 5th Round, Cooper Kupp
Sleeper: 11th Round, Jameis Winston
Grade: B-
Baker has a chance at being a top 3 QB this year, especially with additional weapons in his arsenal, the biggest being OBJ. Taken after Rodgers and Watson, he has a chance at overtaking them both. My biggest problem with the Kupp pick isn't necessarily the pick itself, even if I thought it was a slight reach in the 5th round. My biggest issue is that you just drafted Brandin Cooks the round before. Even if the Rams don't regress at all from last year's prolific offense, I still see them struggling to feed both Kupp and Cooks enough times for both to be playable on a week to week basis. Once again, there's a lot of hype around the Arians train and I do believe that Arians can make Jameis into a fantasy relevant QB once again. He's got great receivers around him (Evans, Godwin, Howard), they should trail in plenty of games, and their backfield is so bad that their best option may be to throw 70 times a game.
The Glory Hogans (Paul Kim)
Best Pick: 3rd Round, Chris Carson
Worst Pick: 5th Round, Melvin Gordon
Sleeper: 12th Round, Mecole Hardman
Grade: B
Chris Carson is going to be a beast this year. He was the 14th best RB last year and that's with 4 games where he carried the ball less than 10 times and splitting the backfield regularly with 2 other backs. One of the backs that steals his carries (Mike Davis) is gone and he should be healthy enough to keep Penny at bay. Melvin Gordon is currently Paul's worst pick because he might not play at all this year. Melvin can forgo the season and still become a free agent due to meeting the required number of years to pursue free agency (unlike Zeke who will need to put in at least 1 more season). If Gordon can even play half the season, this may turn into a great pick, but each week he misses will steadily decrease the value Paul could see from taking Melvin so high. It's always worth taking a flier on uber-athletic players in the best offenses in the league. Hardman fits that to a tee as he runs a sub 4.35 forty and gets to play with football genius Mahomes. Would you rather have Watkins in the 6th or Hardman in the 12th? Give me Hardman. If Paul can't cash in this year, somebody next year should be taking him in the single digit rounds.
Don't Stop BellLeveon (Eric Lee)Best Pick: 4th Round, Josh Jacobs
Worst Pick: 1st Round, Davante Adams
Sleeper: 15th Round, Kirk Cousins
Grade: B+
Josh Jacobs is going to be one of the few bell cow backs in the league. He's fast, he's strong, he can catch, he's young, he's got little competition, and he's in old-school Gruden's offense. We'll see if the line can create enough holes for him but he should get plenty of opportunity to thrive. The three backs on David's team, Mack and Mixon being the others, form a great trio that could all finish in the top 20. But while I love his 2-4 picks, his 1st pick was questionable. Will Davante Adams get a ton of balls thrown his way? Yes. But is it enough to pick over Nuk, or James Conner? No. While it's not egregious, as Davante is still a first rounder, we'll see if this is the difference between a solid playoff run and a championship. I do like the Rodgers/Davante stack strategy. David's truly going boom or bust with the Packers offense. Kirk Cousins was a QB1 last year and should develop further chemistry with Diggs and Thielen (and new addition Doctson). While Rodgers will start for David most weeks, Cousins should be a great insurance plan.
trubiskuits (Rich Kim)
Best Pick: 6th Round, Baker Mayfield
Worst Pick: 5th Round, Cooper Kupp
Sleeper: 11th Round, Jameis Winston
Grade: B-
Baker has a chance at being a top 3 QB this year, especially with additional weapons in his arsenal, the biggest being OBJ. Taken after Rodgers and Watson, he has a chance at overtaking them both. My biggest problem with the Kupp pick isn't necessarily the pick itself, even if I thought it was a slight reach in the 5th round. My biggest issue is that you just drafted Brandin Cooks the round before. Even if the Rams don't regress at all from last year's prolific offense, I still see them struggling to feed both Kupp and Cooks enough times for both to be playable on a week to week basis. Once again, there's a lot of hype around the Arians train and I do believe that Arians can make Jameis into a fantasy relevant QB once again. He's got great receivers around him (Evans, Godwin, Howard), they should trail in plenty of games, and their backfield is so bad that their best option may be to throw 70 times a game.
The Glory Hogans (Paul Kim)
Best Pick: 3rd Round, Chris Carson
Worst Pick: 5th Round, Melvin Gordon
Sleeper: 12th Round, Mecole Hardman
Grade: B
Chris Carson is going to be a beast this year. He was the 14th best RB last year and that's with 4 games where he carried the ball less than 10 times and splitting the backfield regularly with 2 other backs. One of the backs that steals his carries (Mike Davis) is gone and he should be healthy enough to keep Penny at bay. Melvin Gordon is currently Paul's worst pick because he might not play at all this year. Melvin can forgo the season and still become a free agent due to meeting the required number of years to pursue free agency (unlike Zeke who will need to put in at least 1 more season). If Gordon can even play half the season, this may turn into a great pick, but each week he misses will steadily decrease the value Paul could see from taking Melvin so high. It's always worth taking a flier on uber-athletic players in the best offenses in the league. Hardman fits that to a tee as he runs a sub 4.35 forty and gets to play with football genius Mahomes. Would you rather have Watkins in the 6th or Hardman in the 12th? Give me Hardman. If Paul can't cash in this year, somebody next year should be taking him in the single digit rounds.
Best Pick: 5th Round, Robby Anderson
Worst Pick: 3rd Round, Julian Edelman
Sleeper (10th round or later): 15th Round, Golden Tate
Grade: B
I had to give Eric a B because his entire bench is backup backs. His strategy (?) is that Gordon holds out, Gurley gets hurt, Ballage disappoints, and Royce Freeman doesn't recover from his injury. But on to his best pick... Robby Anderson finished as a WR3 last year and his opportunities should only get better with a legit threat in the backfield in Bell and an improving Darnold. His other WR spot was filled by Edelman, which may have been a waste of a draft pick. With Josh Gordon's return and DT suiting up, I don't see many TDs coming Edelman's way. And this is even before we get to Gronk's potential return. Edelman should see plenty of targets but the lack of scores will prevent him from living up to his 3rd round draft slot. He's since been dropped but Tate is the only healthy human with hands in the Giants' WR corp. 4 games is easy to wait out for a solid WR3.
Berries'n Kareem (Jung Kim)
Best Pick: 3rd Round, Stefon Diggs
Worst Pick: 1st Round, Travis Kelce
Sleeper: 11th Round, DeSean Jackson
Grade: C
Stefon Diggs started developing much better chemistry with Cousins over the latter half of 2018. After only catching 3 TDs in the first half, he had 6 TDs in the second. Diggs clearly has Cousins's trust in the red zone and should see double digit scores in 2019. While Kelce is clearly the best TE on the best offense, it's tough to build your team's depth if you take a TE in round 1. Jung's WR depth is severely hampered due to this pick and if Murray can't develop into a QB1, Jung's team could be out of the playoff hunt before week 8. Always draft DeSean Jackson. Even when he's retired.
Jacked Up! (Brian Cho)
Best Pick: 1st Round, Le'Veon Bell
Worst Pick: 4th Round, Derrick Henry
Sleeper: 11th Round, Emmanuel Sanders
Grade: B-
While there's a lot of speculation on how Bell will do outside of the Steeler's offense and after a year away from football, he's a supremely talented player who just got to refresh his legs for a whole year. While injuries are always a concern, it was just last year that Bell was considered a top 3 pick. Getting him at the end of the first round is a steal. But Bell's backfield mate on Cho's team gives me pause. While his last 3 weeks of the season last year were incredible (238 + 4TDs, 170 + 2TDs, 92 + TD), he was positively mediocre outside of that. Maybe I just don't trust the Titans offense but I don't see what they've done to ensure they can continue this kind of production for Henry. Dion Lewis still lurks on 3rd downs and I expect a lot of stacked boxes against Tennessee. While I don't endorse a lot of athletes who return from Achilles injuries, if Sanders can return to 80%, he's still the best receiver on that Broncos team. Once Flacco realizes that Sanders can get the most separation on a consistent basis, I can't see Sutton or Hamilton threatening his production.
Draft Winner(s): Mike Lee, David Kim
Just as his name says, Mike may have drafted the best team this year. With solid players at every position and arguably the greatest sure thing in fantasy right now, only major injuries should be able to derail him. David's three backfield monsters look like the most talented and deepest 3 backs on any team in the league. Combine that with Dede, who should get tons of shots from Foles, and Samuel, quietly becoming the number one receiving option on the Panthers, and the Rodgers+Davante stack, David could finally take 2 heartbreaking season finishes and cash in on the grand prize this year.
Draft Loser: David Yim
No Zeke. Injury prone QB. Luck-less Ebron. When's AJ coming back? Are any of his bench players actually going to be startable? While his team shouldn't be horrendous (nobody got a D or F this year!), he has way more question marks than most other teams. I see David struggling unless Zeke reports before the season starts. Otherwise, he'll have to make a move like he did last year (trading Kelce away) to keep his team afloat.
Last but not least...
League Survey
In the coming weeks, I will put together a survey to get your feedback in regards communication, draft setup, scoring, fees, and more. This will be my 10th year as commissioner and I thought 10 years in is a good time to get feedback from our members and tweak the league as necessary. I'll share the feedback with the entire league and make changes if the entire league is asking for them. On issues that are more split, we'll try to get arguments for and against the topic and we can put the issue up for vote. I look forward to your participation!
P.S. People, please update your team names! Some of them are horrendously boring (David Y Team), don't make sense anymore (Kerryon MyWaywardSon), or both (Fe-Brees).
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
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