Thursday, September 19, 2019

Panic or Peculiarity?

The season is two weeks old and we've already got 4 0-2 teams who may be wondering how their life went so wrong. While 2 games can reveal some massive flaws, it doesn't make or break a season. So, which of these teams need to panic and which ones can move on from a peculiar 2 weeks to start the season?

(As always, I won't write about my team unless it's a league-wide review or the playoff MOTWs)

(Also, for teams at the top of the table who want some media coverage due to your success, hang tight; MOTW is returning next week)

10. Fe-Brees (Jon)
Reasons for Panic:
1. Mike Evans usage - Unlike Godwin, Mike Evans has not benefited from the arrival from Coach Arians (but, nobody is suffering more than newly minted fullback O.J. Howard, RIP). Evans's targets are down, Godwin looks like the new number 1 option, and they're wasting valuable snaps on forcing Peyton Barber to average 3 YPC.
2. David Johnson's failed return - Similar to Evans, DJ hasn't quite boomed as much as we expected from a new coach (and QB). The good news is that they look more competent on offense. The problem is that they're using a lot of 4 WR sets where DJ gets to do more blocking than running routes.
3. No 2nd RB - Duke Johnson (who I believed was a reach as the #1 RB in Houston) has completely lost his lead back duties to Hyde. He's nothing more than a 3rd down receiving back, just like he was in Cleveland. Fournette continues to struggle and the absence of Foles will only exacerbate that.

Reasons for Peculiarity:
1. Scoring outburst in week 1 - Jon didn't have a terrible week 1 but is opponent dropped 135 on him. It's tough to win when your opponent scores that many points on you.
2. Wentz's fantasy potential - Wentz looks really good, with no ill effects lingering from his injuries, and with the ground game and defense struggling, the Eagles look like they'll be throwing a ton. If he can score 20 points without Alshon and DJax, he should be a top 5 QB by the end of the year.
3. Hunter Henry's injury - Henry's return could provide a boost to Jon by improving his TE spot or providing him with a trade chip to improve his team.

Panic level: 8/10
The issues with his stars are real. They should regress to the mean a bit but not enough to make up the value that he drafted them with. Jon may need to make a few shrewd moves to stay in the playoff hunt.

11. The Glory Hogans (Paul)
Reasons for Panic:
1. Cam's injuries - What's going on with Cam? He's missing easy throws and doesn't seem to want to run the ball. If the Panthers keep losing, they'll most likely shut him down to save him for next year, dealing a huge blow to Paul.
2. Inconsistent backfield - Both Carson and Michel are good running backs on winning teams, but their outputs have been limited by various factors. Carson has Penny taking carries for no reason and Michel has to deal with White, Burkhead, and the plethora of receivers that need touches on the Pats offense.
3. Rough upcoming schedule - Paul plays plays the number 5, 2, and 6 ranked teams from week 4-6. He would have gone 1-5 against that group in the first 2 weeks. Not a great way to stay in the playoff race.

Reasons for Peculiarity:
1. Unlucky start to the season - Both of his opponents scored 100+ points in his first 2 matchups. 100 points isn't insurmountable but breaking 100 isn't something that happens easily.
2. Tyreek Hill and Melvin Gordon's return - These are two guys who should finish in the top 15 in their respective positions. If Paul's team can stay afloat long enough, they will give him a solid team that could make a run to the postseason.
3. Nuk - Having Nuk on your team is like having a nuke if you're a country. You always feel safe knowing that you have one of the most powerful forces in your back pocket.

Panic level: 3/10
I think Paul will be okay. Even with the injury/holdout, he has a solid team that can compete on a week to week basis. As long as he doesn't get to 7 losses before the return of his stars, he'll be in the playoff hunt.

12. steel city 4ever (Rich)
Reasons for Panic:
1. Juju and Conner's production dip - Having the rapist gone is definitely going to be detrimental for the other Steelers skill positions. Don't get me wrong, they'll still be the #1 options in the air and ground, respectively, but expect a 20%ish discount on their projected numbers. Conner's injury doesn't add any reassurances.
2. Cooks + Kupp - I hate harping on this point but unless you have two receivers from a historically great offense (Manning's Broncos, Manning's Colts, Brady's Patriots, Mahomes's Chiefs) it doesn't make sense to have 2 options. And when that team is led by Goff, who couldn't manage any TDs in a Super Bowl, you DEFINITELY shouldn't have two of them.
3. Baker, Njoku connection non-existent - While the Browns dreamed big this offseason, the reality hasn't been as welcoming. Nobody has suffered more then Njoku as OBJ is clearly the mouth to feed in this offense. He's been running decoy routes or blocking more than he's been a TD monster.

Reasons for Peculiarity:
1. Unlucky start to the season - Both of his opponents scored 100+ points in his first 2 matchups. 100 points isn't insurmountable but breaking 100 isn't something that happens easily.
2. Penny and Fuller's increasing workload - One man's annoyance is another man's fantasy treasure. As Penny continues to steal touches from Carson and Fuller gets more looks from Watson, they could become every week startable players.
3. Aaron Jones catching balls - While Aaron Jones was going to be successful, he's added a more dynamic receiving game to his already physical style of running. This allows him to be the other Aaron's check down options and possibly play all 3 downs.

Panic level: 10/10
This team is screwed. Rich may need to make some sweeping changes and drastic moves to stay afloat in the playoff race.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

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