Week 8 - MOTW

We got a big one today (TWSS) so let's dive right into it!

MOTW
7. Kerryon MyWaywardSon vs. 8. Berries 'n Kareem
While there is a fierce matchup between Cho and Jon to get a bye in week 14, a little bit further down the table, 2 teams are fighting for their playoff lives. They say (and by they, I mean just me) that the 7th loss is the loss that will leave you out of the playoffs due to the fact that the 7th loss drops you below .500. And outside of an extremely weird season, the top 6 teams will usually have more wins than losses (just like in the NFL!). Jung looked to be an overly lucky team in the beginning of the season due to his higher win total compared to his expected wins based on points. Eric has been on the flip side of that, scoring the 4th highest in the league (only 11.1 points, less than 2 points per week, behind 2nd place), with only 3 wins to show for it. They collide in week 8 with huge stakes on the line: a win gets them back to .500, where a 3-2 rest of season gets them to the playoffs (most likely) but a loss puts them at 3-5, needing a 4-1 stretch, just to have a chance at sniffing the postseason.

Eric's Top 3:
1. Gurley (RB) - 27
2. Mixon (RB) - 23
3. Gronk (TE) - 19
Clearly the strength of Eric's team lies in his backfield. Gurley should continue his monster season against a middle-of-the-pack Packers run D. An interesting aside: I wonder if the Rams success will decrease Gurley's value if they clinch the NFC by week 14 or 15 OR if his record-breaking pace will just increase his reps. This on-field storyline could help determine Eric's fantasy season. Mixon has drawn comparisons to a middle-class man's Bell and when you watch him, you can see glimpses of what make the comparisons apt. His patience behind the line, catching ability, and breaking tackles is reminiscent of Bell (pour one out for David Y, who continues to wait on his return). I can't see him struggling against a Bucs front that just got gashed for over 4 YPC against a rookie in his first start. Gronk should return with a bang against a Bills defense that has a strong secondary and front four but lack some LB talent. Also, in his career, he's absolutely KILLED the Bills. In 13 career games, he's caught 79 YPG, been targeted over 7 times per game, and has 12 TDs (almost 1 per game!). Additionally, any production Gronk gets helps to negate the damage done by Brady.

Jung's Top 3:
1. Brady (QB) - 31
2. Hunt (RB) - 21
2. Patriots (DEF) - 18
Jung is going all in on the Patriots (especially if he follows my advice below) this week and it seems like a wise choice to do so. If Luck can drop over 30 points on the Bills, why wouldn't Brady (who has historically dominated this matchup)? We move on to Hunt who dominated the Broncos in the last matchup. Even when they had the No Fly Zone, the Broncos always gave up more than desired on the ground. Expect them to game plan a little more for Hunt this time around, especially after he gashed them at Mile High, but Chiefs + Arrowhead + Expected Lead is going to be enough yards and scoring opportunities for Hunt to be a top-end RB1. Lastly, the Patriots defense is salivating thinking about the different QB options they will be facing. Do they get the inexperienced rookie Josh Allen? Do they get Nate "I'm pretty sure I can throw better than him" Peterman? No, they get Derek "I was born before fantasy football was a thing" Anderson, who has had 10 days to learn an entire playbook (which doesn't seem like it was a very creative playbook to begin with). Additionally, no Shady + weak talent at the skill positions is going to mean a long day for the Bills. Expect a low scoring game for the Bills offense, at least 3 turnovers, numerous sacks, and a potential defensive TD for the Patriots.


X-Factor: Stafford (QB, Eric) vs. White (RB, Jung)
I'm highlighting two guys that aren't currently in the roster at the time of writing but I think could make the top 3 in scoring if they are started. Stafford gets a still formidable, but no Legion of Boom, defense on a fast track at home in the dome. Outside of a disastrous week 1, Stafford hasn't scored under 19 points and this game has a chance to be a shootout. While the Jags haven't been as good as Jalen Ramsey has advertised, I think they still have the talent to give Wentz a hard time, especially with the energizing chants of the home crowd. If I were Eric, I'd start Stafford. On the other side, Ingram gets a tough Vikings front that is recovering from its weird 2 game slide. Even though Ingram is the lead back, he still splits work with Kamara and he struggled in both meetings against the Vikings last year (11 touches for 71 yards in the regular season, 11 touches for 28 yards in the playoffs, both in Minnesota, as the game on Sunday will be). The Vikings defense returns almost all the same players from those 2 games and should make it a tough day for Ingram. Instead, Jung should look to play James White. He should naturally have a bigger role with Michel out and the Bills have gotten completely destroyed the last couple of weeks by backs that may not have as much talent as White (Mack: 21 for 159 and 2 TDs, Derrick Henry: 5.6 YPC, Aaron Jones + Ty Mont: 19 for 156 and a TD). Additionally, a few short TDs from Brady would allow Jung to double-dip in TDs.

Potential Starters Missing Due to Bye:
Eric - Ridley (WR)
Jung - None

Winner: Eric
While the Patriots should dominate the Bills, leading to a great potential fantasy day for Jung, I have a feeling that they'll cannibalize each other to an extent. Let's say the Patriots score 2 defensive TDs. Will Brady throw much longer in the game? Or let's say Brady stakes them a 3 TD lead. Does the defense start relaxing and give up a few garbage scores? Will they start resting players to prevent injuries? This married with the fact that Gurley is unstoppable and that the best receiver may be on Eric's side (I like DT in his matchup against the Chiefs, kind of interesting though that none of the WRs made the top 3 or X Factor on either team), I'm going to have to go with Eric getting one step closer to the playoffs. One other interesting tidbit: If Eric and Jung had played weeks 1-7 against each other, Eric would be up 4-3, meaning this one could be a close matchup. BUT of those 3 wins by Jung, 2 of them are by less than .2 points (Week 2 by .18 and Week 3 by .04 (!!!)). I hope this becomes a nail biter like the Cho v. Paul matchup last week. The Monday night battles make great entertainment for other owners whose weeks have already wrapped up.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim