Week 9 - The Ideal Team

This week, we're going to run a little exercise that may piss everybody off. This is a team that anybody could have built to dominate the league. During the draft, I'm sure you would have gotten laughed out of the room with these picks, but 8 weeks in, you would most likely be undefeated (I didn't go week by week but I have a hard time believing this team could lose) and in prime position for the playoffs

Here were the rules I gave to myself:
1) A player must have been drafted with the 12th pick of that round to be considered eligible for a round. So if a player was taken with the 11th pick in the 4th round, he would only be eligible as a 3rd round selection because the 12th team would not have been able to take him.
2) I considered performance to this point (70%) as well as potential future performance (30%) when weighing who to select (by the way, I made up those percentages). Instead of doing this purely by current rankings, I considered future outlook as well. That's why a player like Lindsay (dominating touches on all 3 downs in the Broncos backfield that's been more than competent on offense with Case Keenum) made it while a player like Breida (who has performed well but is dealing with a potential nagging injury in a QB-less offense with Mostert nipping at his heels) did not.

I'll outline the draft with their current ranking, where they were actually drafted, and who drafted them. Then, we'll examine the ideal team position by position:

Draft
1st - Adam Thielen - #1 WR - 3rd round, 2nd pick by David Y
2nd - Tyreek Hill - #2 WR - 3rd round, 4th pick by Simon
3rd - Emmanuel Sanders - #9 WR - 6th round, 10th pick by Cho
4th - Robert Woods - #13 WR - 7th round, 2nd pick by David Y
5th - Patrick Mahomes II - #1 QB - 10th round, 10th pick by Cho
6th - George Kittle - #5 TE - 7th round, 12th pick by Biggie
7th - Matt Ryan - #3 QB - 8th round, 6th pick by David K
8th - Marlon Mack - #7 RB (season average PPG) - 9th round, 8th pick by Chris
9th - James Conner - #3 RB - Undrafted
10th - DeSean Jackson - #7 WR - 14th round, 11th pick by David Y
11th - Phillip Lindsay - #16 RB - Undrafted
12th - Chicago - #2 DEF - 14th round, 3rd pick by Paul
13th - James White - #10 RB - Undrafted
14th - Harrison Butker - #7 K (removing inactive kickers) - 15th round, 5th pick by Jon
15th - Eric Ebron - #3 TE - Undrafted

Depth Chart
QB: Mahomes II (33.62, #1), Ryan (28.59, #3)
Other than week 5, when both QBs scored under 20 points, you can't go wrong with either option. I don't see this team ever benching Mahomes but Ryan is an over-qualified backup.

WR: Thielen (16, #1), Hill (15.38, #2), Jackson (13.04, #7), Sanders (12.73, #9), Woods (11.78, #13)
Having the top 2 WRs is always a recipe for success but to top that off with 3 guys behind them who are all in the WR1 conversation? That's unreal. The WR3 spot can be changed out based on match ups/bye weeks and, more importantly, none of these guys will be scoring against the ideal team.

RB: Conner (21.17, #3), White (14.29, #10), Mack (17.43, #7), Lindsay (11.34, #16)
This is definitely the "weakest" of the positions on the ideal team. This is because the RBs taken in the first two rounds usually pan out for the teams that take them (my condolences to Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette owners). But 2 Top 10 RBs along with an emerging top 10 back in Mack will allow this team to compete with any other team in the league. Mack may step into the RB1 role on this team if his production continues in Indy and Conner sees a drop-off with Bell's return.

TE: Ebron (10.16, #3), Kittle (9.05, #5)
Other than Ertz, Kelce, and Gronk (is he though in 2018?), there are no sure things at TE anymore. So having 2 top 5 options is more than adequate for FF in 2018.

K: Butker (9.75, #7)
While there have been kickers who have skewed averages due to 20+ point weeks, Butker has been consistent in a high-scoring offense and should continue to reap the benefits of the Mahomes Show.

DEF: Chicago (10.14, #2)
The Rams have a had a slightly higher average but Chicago has been better on a week to week basis. They're almost matchup proof (as long as Mack plays) and we were able to wait 3 extra rounds to get them.

Average PPG: 143.55 (!!!)
I know the scoring in the NFL has been bonkers this year but to put that number into perspective, only 2 teams have topped that number in a given week (Simon - Week 1, David K - Week 4).

Honorable Mentions:
RB:
- Joe Mixon: He's been a top 10 RB but I would have to use a 1st or 2nd round pick on him. I'd rather dominate the WR position than take a RB that's missed 2 games.
- Sony Michel: Went a little too early (7th round) for me to consider using a 6th rounder on him with so many other options on the board. Plus, we're not quite sure what the effects of his injury will be.
- Nick Chubb: While I believe in his talent, I couldn't take him over any of the other backs, especially with things so uncertain in Cleveland
- Matt Breida: As mentioned earlier, he's performed well in place of McKinnon but we don't know whether or not he'll be back to 100% this season and his offensive situation is looking bleak.
- TJ Yeldon: He's performed better than Lindsay on the year (12 PPG) but with Fournette possibly returning and Carlos Hyde taking some carries, his ROS outlook is bleaker than most.

WR:
- Calvin Ridley: He's cooled off after a hot start. Still, a decent option but the 5 above him are more consistent.
- Kenny Golladay: Almost exact same scoring pattern as Ridley (hot start, cool recently). Once again, the better options made the cut.
- Tyler Boyd: Boyd is right behind Woods in scoring average but his booms and busts are more difficult to depend on.

QB:
- Jared Goff: I almost took him over Ryan due to his system but he was a little too far behind (bottom half of QB1s) in performance so far and their ROS outlook is about even.
- Andrew Luck: The closest cut, he's been a top 5 QB so far and should continue slinging it. I wouldn't be upset if you replaced Ryan with Luck.

TE:
- Jared Cook: His boom or busts have been too high and low. But the weeks he booms? Almost no other TE can match his production. His ROS outlook is great too with no Pooper Cooper to compete with for targets.

One interesting observation: the 4th and 5th round in the draft were rough. Who was the best pick? Nobody really panned out from these 2 rounds, even though at this point, you're still drafting key starters. I'd say Cam was the best pick as he's produced as a top 5 QB or Ertz who has been a top 3 TE on a weekly basis. Outside of those 2, you've got a few bright but non-elite players (Juju, Cooks, Dion Lewis), some unlucky injuries (McKinnon, Ajayi), and a slew of underachievers (Cooper, Allen Robinson, Graham, Freeman, Lamar Miller, Demaryius Thomas, Goodwin, DeShaun Watson). It was weird that in the 3rd-5th round, I couldn't find any major value picks for the ideal team.

One other note: David Y dropped both Woods and Jackson and now starts Funchess and Lockett. May God have mercy on his soul.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim