I'm switching the MOTW format for this week. I'll see how I like it and revert back if it sucks.
The majority of teams get 55-65% of their points from their top 3 players i.e. 33% of the roster. So instead of breaking down the entire roster from top to bottom, I'm going to focus on who I believe will be the top 3 point-getters for each team. Additionally, I'll identify an X-factor, who may swing the match up for a tight win or an unexpected loss.
MOTW
2. Jacked Up! vs. 4. Orange MFN Charizard
A rematch of the final from last year, David K. has quite the grudge to avenge. Of course, Cho doesn't know or care about any of this so he's taking this like any other week.
Cho's Top 3:
1. Mahomes (QB) - 36
2. Zeke (RB) - 26
3. Jordan Howard (RB) - 23
Cho's running backs have some juicy match ups. Usually home + beatable opponent + weak QBs + porous run defenses is a perfect recipe for 20+ fantasy points. Cho's team got a lucky break and got that perfect formula for BOTH of his backs. However, neither of them are outscoring Mahomes who is on pace to throw 69 TDs this year. 69 (heh). Denver can try to slow him down with Miller and Chubb but worst case, he'll throw a couple picks. This won't stop him for throwing for 300+ yards and 3+ TDs.
David K's Top 3:
1. Kamara (RB) - 29
2. Dalton (QB) - 26
3. Kelce (TE) - 18
Kamara is a monster and he gets to play a NYG team that really hasn't been able to stop anybody. And now they get to face Charizard with no water type Pokemon. That's a recipe for disaster. Dalton should be involved in a nice shootout with a Falcons defense that has personnel dropping like flies. I think he loses the game but puts up a nice 25+ point effort. Kelce is an interesting play here as he should take advantage of a linebacking corp that cannot cover TEs (Dissly, a slow white guy, had 16 points on them). Additionally, he'll help mitigate Mahomes' yardage points for every throw that comes his way.
X-Factor: Sanders (WR, Cho) vs. Michel (RB, David K)
Unfortunately, this is the story of diverging X-Factors. Sanders, who has found new life with Keenum at the helm, should tear up the Chiefs secondary that couldn't even stop Beathard from leading some scoring drives. Michel struggled with the opportunity that came his way last week and it doesn't take much to lose Belichick's trust. I can't see him getting more than 12 touches and I'm not sure he'll do enough with them to help mitigate Cho's running backs.
Winner: Cho
David K fails to get revenge today but it's not entirely his fault. The match ups for Cho's running backs are as good as they'll be all year and the lack of a 2nd running back is going to hurt David K in this match up.
Bonus mini-MOTW
11. Afghanistananis vs. 12. David Y Team
No team's chances are over until they lose 7 games but falling into an 0-4 hole means you have to go 7-3 the rest of the way. While 6-4 isn't remarkably easier, it's definitely more feasible than the former. One of these teams will take a step in the right direction as one of them have to win this matchup of no-win teams (unless there is a tie, which has only happened once since 2010, so let's say it won't happen).
Winner: Dan
One of these teams doesn't deserve to be 0-3. While he has cooled off after a 130 point week 1, he still has enough talent on his team to beat David Y. 2 true WR1s, Wilson against a terrible Cardinals team, and the return of Ajayi should all be enough to get the W. Unless Cousins and Thielen connect for 3 TDs on Thursday night, I'll say this is over before SNF.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
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