10 weeks are in the books and only 1 team has been eliminated for sure. In what will be a frantic finish, with almost every playoff contender facing their direct competition for the coveted spots, the playoffs have basically already started with de facto elimination games occurring every week. We'll take a look at the current standings, remaining schedule, and the effects of the week 11 and 12 bye, to determine which of the 11 teams will make the playoffs and which will be on the outside looking in.
The "All-But-Clinched"
1. Bless'm
2. Orange MFN Charizard
These two teams have a minimum 2 game lead on all the other teams with 3 games to go. To drop out of the playoffs, they would need to lose all of their games, have specific teams finish 8-7 (due to scheduling, some of the teams will eliminate each other as they fight for playoff qualification), and lose the 100+ points for tiebreaker. I just don't see that happening. They also have the inside track on securing the bye. The only question remaining is which one will end up as the 1 vs. the 2 seed.
12. Shock the F'n World
Nobody was shocked to see Chris missing out on the playoffs. While his team has had some pleasant surprises (AP, Mack, Goff), his inability to play them in the proper weeks AND inability to keep his roster updated (WHY IS FREEMAN STILL ON THE ROSTER?) has resulted in a terrible rookie season. He will be put on probation for next year (if he decides to play) and will be kicked out of the league if his inactive management style continues.
The "Heavy Favorites"
3. Jacked Up!
He owns the point tiebreaker against the rest of the league (save the top 2) and he will finish his season playing 3 teams that are currently in the bottom half of the table. He will miss Mahomes in week 12 but 1 win should be enough to secure his place.
4. Fe-Brees
Missing Michel in week 11, Cooks in week 12, and AJ Green potentially through both makes me a little nervous to put him in this tier but he should be able to survive either Biggie or David Y, needing only one of those victories to play past week 13.
The "Anybody's Guess"
This is where the real analysis begins. 5 teams will fight for 2 playoff spots. Let's see what's in store for them in the next 21 days and make a prediction on each team.
5. Just Forsett In
Currently has a 1 game lead on everyone but other than Melvin Gordon and Zach Ertz, his team has struggled; his team isn't averaging over 100 a game. The great news is he gets Chris's team in week 13, a team that has struggled all season and one that Mike beat by almost 30 points earlier this season. That win gets him to 7 but the 8th that clinches his playoff future should be against a Kareem Hunt-less Jung's team in week 12. He'll be one of the weaker teams going into the playoffs but all you need to do is to get in to give yourself a chance.
VERDICT: IN
6. The Glory Hogans
Paul wants the season to end today but unfortunately he needs to keep the horde from coming after him in the next 3 weeks. He should get the first win he needs this week against David Y and follow that up with a win against a Gurley-less Eric's team. However, his own brother may be his demise, dropping him to 7-6, tied with one of the other teams below and losing on the points tiebreaker. Let's hope that loss doesn't put a damper on their Christmas gathering.
VERDICT: OUT
7. Berries 'n Kareem
Due to his relatively low points for, Jung needs 3 wins (or crazy amounts of losses by his competition) to guarantee his spot. Unfortunately, he needs to do this against the 1st, 5th and 9th (who has the 4th highest points in the league) place teams. To make matters worse, Jung might be the team that relies on players with week 11/12 byes the most. He'll be missing Brady, White, Amendola, Stills, and Goodwin for week 11 and Hunt for week 12. I see an unfortunate 1-2 or 0-3 finish for Jung and not even receiving a bye in the relegation bracket.
VERDICT: OUT
8. Fournetflix 'n CHiLL
Fournette is FINALLY back and after trading Ty Mont, GB has finally utilized the other Aaron as a bell cow back. But is that enough to overcome his major point deficiency? He has the 3rd lowest points for and he must face the 4th, 3rd, and 1st place teams to end his season, needing AT LEAST 2 wins to have a chance at the playoffs. Other than Kittle missing for one week, he'll have his full team to face this uphill battle but I just can't see this ending well for Biggie.
VERDICT: OUT
9. Afghanistananis
Dan has only 1 option: win out. At that point, he'll be 7-6 and hoping that his 4th highest points for will be enough to push him into the postseason. He faces the 4th and 1st place team which will make this difficult but he plays a direct competitor in Jung (7th) which will help him leapfrog him in the standings. He's passed through bye-week hell and has his full roster for the next 3 weeks. IF he can get past Cho this week, he faces Simon's team without Hill or Legatron. I think he gets the 3 wins and becomes a team nobody wants to play in the playoffs.
VERDICT: IN
The "I Can't Believe a Team with Gurley Didn't Make the Playoffs"
10. Kerryon MyWaywardSon
While he should get a win in week 11 against Chris's team, week 12 without Gurley may be the week that he receives this 8th loss and ends his playoff push. Even if he wins out, he'll need a specific scenario where all of the 5-5 teams lose 2 of their games and Dan wins fewer games than him. While this is theoretically possible (the 5-5 teams don't play each other), it just seems like too many things needing to go right for his team to make the playoffs. Look at some of the losses Eric has taken:
Week 4: 123.2 - 119.58 (Jared cook catches 110 + 2TD, Case Keenum missing Demaryius on a WIDE OPEN TD pass on Monday night)
Week 5: 115.82 - 114.02 (Ridley cools off after 3 straight weeks of 12+ points, 2 TD a piece from Steelers Antonio and Conner)
Week 10: 122.92 - 118.2 (Melvin Gordon outperforms Gurley, over 40% of Wentz's yards and 100% of his TDs go to Ertz, Mixon underperforms while Kerryon breaks out on bench).
Let's just hope Eric comes back next year to play instead of destroying all of Yahoo's servers.
The "Wait Til Next Year"
11. David Y Team
While not mathematically eliminated, David will have a hard time coming back to nab a playoff spot. Bell's non-existent return + lowest current total points + last 3 games against the 6th (w/o Breida and McCoy), 4th, and 3rd place teams smells like doom for me. This just goes to show, if you don't invest in your team name, your team won't invest in you.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
Byes: Simon, David K
Wild Card: Cho, Jon, Mike (Auto-Draft FTW!), Dan
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
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