Week 16 - Regular Season Recap and Analysis

Hello Everyone!

I'm sure you're sick of the excuses but I haven't been able to post due to being really busy with work and personal stuff. I didn't even get to the trade analysis I said would be coming soon. However, I did want to share some cool stuff that I was able to get done for our league.

Also, don't forget that if you're in the consolation bracket, you're playing for a $25 gift card!

Ease of Schedule:

- Here we see that the 2 David's were on opposite sides of the luck spectrum when it came to their schedule.

- Another thing we see is the impact of luck on making the playoffs: All 6 playoff teams had relatively favorable schedules, which helps explain how they earned their postseason berth. 

- One other pattern you'll see as we continue to go through the graphs is that Mike just really had a fairly unlucky year that he may want to forget.

High Scores:

- There's a reason Cho earned a bye. He was the top scoring team in 5 of the 14 regular season weeks, automatically clinching 5 Ws no matter who his opponent would have been.

- The funniest high score has to be Jung's week 14 explosion to ensure David Y stayed out of the playoffs. I think the 130 points were almost 10% of his season points.

- On the right, it's crazy to think that no player repeated as the highest weekly scorer. Most of these scores were capitalized on. However, here's the short list of teams that did not take advantage of the explosion of points with the week, player, manager, who they played instead, and if this miss cost them the W:

     - Week 2, Cousins, Chris, Hurts (27.22), Still got the W

     - Week 3, Achane, Jon, Gibbs (9.5), Still got the W

     - Week 8, Howell, FA

     - Week 11, Lawrence, Jon, R. Wilson (16.46), Still got the W

So in the end, missing out on the best player for that week didn't actually affect any teams' records but may have affected their PF and ultimate ranking.

Player Management

- There's nothing too crazy here other than the fact that the people who got the most percentage of their points from non-drafted players happened to either be people who traded/active on waivers (Simon 42% w/ 67 moves, David K 34% w/ 39 moves, Mike 35% w/ Puka + Gus + Moss +Ferg, Dan 34%) or who had to make a lot of roster moves for injuries/crappy team (Jung 42%, Rich 38%).

- The interesting ones are David Y who participated in a mega-trade but still got most of his points from his original lineup and Chris who got arguably his best player from a trade but just didn't make enough moves (8) to see a big change in percentage.

Lineup Management

This was one of my favorite ones to look at. For anyone who has ever used StatTracker, the optimal points option is a cool but frustrating look into "what could have been." This is a view of basically what could have been for the whole season. 

- The most jarring realization is that Mike could have been 2nd in PF and had 10 wins if he had just been able to choose the right player most weeks. He always had a conundrum between Puka, Nico, Aiyuk, Pittman, and CeeDee at WR, Burrow and Tua at QB, and Moss, Gus, and Pollard at RB. Sometimes, too many options can hamper the ability to make the right decision.

- Paul looks like he was super unlucky as he wasn't that far off between his actual and potential points yet he got 4 wins taken away. Must have been a lot of close losses (I still remember when he lost a potential tie against David K). 

- Most of the playoff teams are also playoff teams because they didn't leave too many points on the bench. The one exception was Jon who, almost fittingly, lost in the playoffs as he benched an explosive CEH for a disappointing Achane.

- Last note: I think it's hilarious that no matter what, even with perfect lineups, Jung and Chris would not have made the playoffs.

Overall Team Strength

One of the best ways to see how good a team actually is (and how lucky/unlucky they are) is to pretend every team plays every other team in a given week. This almost roto-like method takes out the luck as winning a 4 point battle at 60-64 would most likely only give you 1 of the 11 matchups in a given week.

- Once again, we see Mike was super unlucky as he had the 3rd best total win % against the league. Even with sub-optimal lineup choices, he should have made the playoffs if it wasn't for his schedule.

- David Y also falls in this boat as he has the 5th best total wins and comfortably clears the two tied for 6th at 74 wins. David's case was a little too late by Dak as the Cowboys took a while to get rolling.

- This somehow shows Rich as being unlucky but I thin he's lucky that he wasn't last given that he would only have won 31.2% of his games against every team every week.

- Once again, luck played a bit of a role for the playoff team as every team other than Simon's performed better than their total wins would suggest they should.

Good luck to all!

Week 13 - Special Monday Night Watch!

 Apologies for not getting a post before the week but we have a really interesting Monday night game in the works that could affect multiple things. Let's look at what's at stake and predict what's going to happen:

- Chris needs 35.26 points from Evan Engram to knock David Y out of the playoff race. Call me a skeptic, but that's not happening. David Y's playoff story lives on. But it requires a loss from Dan and/or Eric to make it happen. So what's going on in their matchups?

- Dan is up by 9+ and the only thing David K has left is Jacksonville's defense. Now, in most weeks, that's a lot to ask for from a defense but against Browning (not Burrow), this could easily be achieved. Give up maybe 14 points (1 point) combine it with 5 sacks (5 points) and 2 takeaways (4 points) and you're there. David K is also fighting for something as he's still in the race for a bye. If he can win this week, he would be in great position as 2 of the other contestants for a bye (Jon and Simon) play each other next week. So let's say Dan loses here.

- Eric is down by 23.12 points and that's what he'll need Etienne to outscore Ridley by. Now just for context, Etienne has scored over 23.12 twice this year and Ridley has scored under 5 points 4 times this year so it's not necessarily impossible... but I'd call it improbable. Unless Jacksonville says "we're going to milk this clock and get out of here with the dub" and gives the rock to Travis 30+ times resulting in a 150 yard, 3 TD game while Ridley just watches, I think Eric also takes a loss.

So where does that leave us?

There's two races to keep track of here so let's start with the least interesting first:

Race for the Bye

Jon and David K would be 10-3 and on top of the standings. As I mentioned before Jon plays Simon next week for a win and in matchup thanks to Jon's record and Simon's point total.

David K would be win and in next week but he plays Mike, the current favorite to win the consolation bracket. While Mike wouldn't be playing for anything, his players don't know that. David K has an extremely low point total so any tie within the top 4 would not bode well for him. However, if he wins, he would be in.

Cho would be sitting at 9-4 and playing Chris (which should be a win) but he'll need some help to get in. He'd be 2nd in PF after week 13 so he would need to win no matter what. Then he would want Jon to beat Simon and have David K lose. That should be enough to secure the bye. If Simon beats Jon and David K loses, he would need to make sure his PF stays ahead of Jon as they would all be 10-4. If David K wins, he would be rooting for Simon to win in an extremely low scoring game and have his team be the first to score 200+ in a week.

Race for the Playoff Spot

So if everything on Monday night goes according to plan, David Y would be at 6-7 and Dan and Eric would be at 7-6. This gets SUPER interesting because Dan and Eric play each other in week 14. This will be a true win and in situation. Now, if they lose, they would need David Y to stumble to sneak into the playoffs.

David Y gets Jung's left for dead team so if he can win, he should be in due to his high points lead. David Y has been one of the hotter teams because even though he's only gone 2-3 in the last 5 weeks, he's scored over 104 in 4 of them has been explosive, scoring over 130 twice. His team seems to be rounding in to form at just the right time so if he can sneak in, nobody would want to play him.

The most interesting situation would be if Eric and Dan tie in their matchup. They would both be at a 7-6-1 and the best David could do is 7-7 so they would both make the playoffs. Now, with fractional scoring, a tie is almost impossible (although David K and Paul almost had one last week if the Vikings had kicked one more FG) but just something to keep an eye on in week 14.

BUT

For all of this wackiness to happen, today's Monday night game will be crucial. So let's watch with bated breath on how this last week will unfold.

Good luck to all!

Week 12 - The Perfect Draft

Going to use an excerpt from a previous post since it's the same exercise:

This week, we're going to run a little exercise that may piss everybody off. This is a team that anybody could have built to dominate the league. During the draft, I'm sure you would have gotten laughed out of the room with these picks, but 8 weeks in, you would most likely be undefeated (I didn't go week by week but I have a hard time believing this team would lose many if any weeks) and in prime position for the playoffs.

Here were the rules I gave to myself:
1) A player must have been drafted with the 12th pick of that round to be considered eligible for a round. So if a player was taken with the 11th pick in the 4th round, he would only be eligible as a 3rd round selection because the 12th team would not have been able to take him.
2) I considered performance to this point (70%) as well as potential future performance (30%) when weighing who to select (by the way, I made up those percentages). Instead of doing this purely by current rankings, I considered future outlook as well. 

I'll outline the draft with their current ranking, where they were actually drafted:

Round 1: CeeDee (WR3)/AJ (WR4)/Amon-Ra (WR6) - I really couldn't figure out which one to take. CeeDee has been the hottest when he gets hot, AJ Brown has just as high of a ceiling but lower floor, and Amon-Ra might not reach the same heights but he is way more consistent. Pick your favorite. - All drafted in the 2nd round

Round 2: Josh Allen (QB1) - 3rd round

Round 3: Keenan Allen (WR2) - 4th round

Round 4: Hockenson (TE1) - 5th round

Round 5: Kamara (RB5 PPG) - 6th round

Round 6: Mostert (RB2) - 9th round

Round 7: Brian Robinson (RB4) - 9th round

Round 8: Adam Thielen (WR11) - 11th round

Round 9: Puka (WR10) - Undrafted

Round 10: Kyren (RB3 PPG) - Undrafted

Round 11: Dallas (DEF1) - 12th round

Round 12: LaPorta (TE5) - 13th round

Round 13: Tank Dell (WR15) - 14th round

Round 14: Sam Howell (QB4) - Undrafted

Round 15: Hopkins (K1) - Undrafted

Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving!

Good luck to all!

Week 10 - MOTW

At first, I was going to write about the Chris vs. Paul matchup as the loser is most likely fully eliminated from the playoff race but:

1. I already wrote about them and I do try to limit repeats as much as I can

2. Who wants to hear about two teams that suck, one of which won't even be in the playoff race after this week?

Instead, let's focus on a bigger matchup of 2 teams. Whoever wins gets 7-3 and puts them in the driver's seat at a playoff spot and potentially a bye while the loser drops to 6-4 and has to fend off the 4 teams below him trying to steal his playoff spot.

MOTW

3. In Time (Eric) vs. 5. Let Bijans be Bijans

QB: Eric ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ David

While Lamar is most likely the best QB in this grouping, he gets the toughest defense in the NFL while Eric has Stroud, who should have to throw a lot to keep up with the Bengals. I think the tough defense will actually help Lamar's value as he'll have to throw even late in the game but Stroud should be able to match him on a point by point basis.

WR: Eric ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 David

At the time this post is being written, I don't even know who Eric's 3rd WR is going to be. Waddle is on a bye and he doesn't even have a 3rd WR on his roster. Meanwhile, David K has 3 primary options in winnable matchups. I can't see Gabe and Shaheed doing enough to win.

RB: Eric ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ David

Initially this one looked like it would tilt heavily in Eric's favor but the welcomed news of Conner's return made this a much better fight. Bijan should (assuming Arthur Smith isn't out to get him) dominate a weak Arizona defense and Conner should be heavily involved as he was one of the only weapons the Cardinals had before he went down with an injury. Etienne gets a tough front in the 49ers but Javonte gets to kick the Bills defense while they're down a few players due to injury. 

TE/K/DST: Eric ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ David

David gets the nice Andrews stack and I feel like against hard defenses, QBs look for their main options more than usual. It's tough to write about the DST as Eric still needs to pick one up but there aren't any free agents better than the Jets against Aidan. Eric draws it a little bit back to his side thanks to having Koo, who has been one of the best kickers in football, in a game where he should be called upon early and often.

Winner: David K

This is one of the more interesting MOTWs I've seen as one team is so overtly dominant at the WR matchup while the other doesn't have a clear edge anywhere (although if anything, it's probably at RB. I'll give the small edge to David K and the Lamar/Andrews stack that I think should propel him to a win.

Season MOTW Record: 2-1

Good luck to all!

Week 9 - Best Pickups for Each Team

Totally forgot to post last week's MOTW. It wasn't fully baked but it was between David K and Jung because I had a sneaky suspicion that the match was going to be closer than their rankings indicated (9 and 3 at the time). Turns out I was right and a close comeback on Monday night would have made for a great MOTW to track. Instead, we're going to go through and look at how teams have been doing outside of the draft.

The key to every season is obviously the waiver wire and free agency. Picking up and playing startable players, whether to backfill injuries, fill in during bye weeks, or to even overthrow the very players they drafted is what can separate the playoff hopefuls from the ones who flounder.

So we'll take a team by team look to see their best moves and how it's impacted their team so far.

1. Jacked Up! (Cho)

Adam Thielen - Cho was able to take Jon's mistake and pick up a WR1 on the season. It took an already good team and made it almost unbeatable.

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray - Great lotto ticket that may pay off later in the season.

2. Live Laugh Olave (Simon)

Kyren Williams - A true RB1 with a ridiculous snap and opportunity count. He's not the most explosive or fastest back out there, but anyone who gets 20+ touches in McVay's offense is a true diamond in the rough.

Honorable Mention: D'Onta Foreman - Had a week as an RB1 and has filled in admirably while Kyren has been hurt.

3. One Tyreek Hill (Jon)

Russell Wilson - With TLaw struggling, Jon needed a backup plan and Russell may actually have been more than that. On the season he's a top 12 QB while TLaw would barely be startable in 2 QB leagues.

Honorable Mention: Baltimore - The defense has been fierce and is always a threat to score double digits

4. In Time (Eric)

Chubba Hubbard - Although the Carolina offense has been disappointing, any time you can get an RB1 in an offense, especially off the waiver wire, it's a good find. Hubbard seems to have usurped Miles Sanders as the lead back.

Honorable Mention: C.J. Stroud - With Fields's injury, Stroud has been able to keep the QB position from destroying Eric's team.

5. Let Bijans be Bijans (David K)

Jerome Ford - Although he never played a snap for David K, Ford netted David Diggs. Is there anything better than returning first round value with someone you picked up for free?

Honorable Mention: Emari Demercado - After a weird blip where Ingram took over as the lead back, Demercado looks to be the man in charge while Conner is out.

6. Saticoy Steel (Dan)

Seattle - They've been a sneaky good defense and while their remaining schedule isn't great, they still may be able to pull off a few more double digit weeks.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Boyd - With Burrow looking like himself again, Boyd should have some standalone value and at the worst, act as a bye week filler.

7. David Y Team (David Y)

Sam Howell - He's the number 8 QB in total points this year and even though he gets sacked a lot and throws picks, he's not afraid to launch it. Could start some weeks over Dak.

Honorable Mention: None - David's only had 7 additions all year and most are not on the roster anymore or don't impact his team in any meaningful way.

8. it's all in the hips (Jung)

Kareem Hunt - Originally not even on an NFL roster, Hunt has carved out a role in the Browns offense and after losing Chubb, the smallest of consolation prizes for Jung.

Honorable Mention: Jared Goff - Looking for a replacement for Rodgers, Jung landed a good one in Goff, a top 10 QB so far this year

9. BEST TEAM (Mike)

Puka Nacua - Although he's slowed down quite a bit, nobody can forget the scorching start he had this year. Mike may be able to trade some of his other WRs for other positions since his team goes 5 deep at the position.

Honorable Mention: Jake Ferguson - A rookie who has already earned Dak's trust. Even if he can just play the Witten role, he'll be a top 10 TE ROS.

10. No Punts Intended (Paul)

Josh Downs - The rookie in Indy has been a revelation. The surprising Colts offense can support multiple receivers for the first time since the Andrew Luck days and Downs may even be Minshew's favored target.

Honorable Mention: Taysom Hill - Although he's just been added, New Orleans is using him in so many ways, I can see him holding top 10 value for the ROS.

11. Rich’s 삼겹살 Brock Party 🎉🥓 (Rich)

Brock Purdy - Needing to replace the useless Daniel Jones, Rich went all in on Purdy, even dedicating his team name to him. While he's struggled as of late, he's been a top 12 QB on the season.

Honorable Mention: Romeo Doubs - The Green Bay offense is a mess but Doubs has found a penchant for the end zone.

12. #winnable (Chris)

Josh Reynolds - Struggled as of late but has produced a few decent lines since being picked up. His ceiling is limited but he has a decent floor in a great offense.

Honorable Mention: Zeke? - Chris has the fewest pickups of anybody in the league (3) but Zeke may actually be playable certain weeks as he's found some new legs.

Good luck to all!

Week 7 - Looking Back at Pre-season Predictions

6 weeks are in the books and while it seems a little early, I think now is a good time to take a look at how my pre-season predictions are doing. Was I right? With all the injuries, roster moves (both in real life and in fantasy), and development of players, which teams look like they have the best or worst outlook? (Original predictions in Italics)

Favorites:

Let Bijans be Bijans (David K)

What? David K makes my list 2 years in a row?? This is not a mistake. Sure, Bijan and Garrett could be a risky combo, banking on 2 guys under 23. However, Bijan should dominate on an Atlanta team that runs when they're down 28 and Wilson had 1000+ yards with Flacco and Zach Wilson. Imagine what he can do with Rodgers who loves to overtarget his favorite guys. Add to those 2 a Lamar/Andrews stack in what should be a fast-paced offense, Addison who could be a rookie sleeper next to JJettas, and James Conner, an underrated back who has the backfield to himself, and suddenly, David K has got a squad. Warren and Doubs are great sleepers that he basically got for free and Goff could finish as a top 10 QB. Watch out world. David K is coming for his ship.

Week 7 Prognosis: 3rd place, still looking like one of the frontrunners

David K continues his hold near the top of the rankings but it's not quite because of the reason I had originally predicted. Bijan has been good but not amazing, Wilson has lost Rodgers, and Lamar and Andrews have been underwhelming. Instead, he got to pull off an amazing trade to get a top 3 WR in Diggs and that's just leveled up his entire team's potential every week. If some of the original reasons for optimism start to match the pre-season hype I had for them, David's team could become scary in a hurry.

Jacked Up! (Cho)

Although I'm not a huge Saquon fan this year, the rest of his roster looks great. Amon-Ra already showed us that he's ready to feast as Goff's favorite target. Keenan Allen and Darren Waller could be top 30 players that fell way too far because of the perceived step back they will take due to their age. If Deshaun Watson can regain some of the Houston form (and not sexually harass masseuses), Kenneth Walker holds off Charbonnet and becomes a bell cow back, and one of his lottery ticket WRs pays off (Pickens, Michael Thomas, Alec Pierce), Cho could be coming back to regain the trophy that was once his.

Week 7 Prognosis: 1st place, hasn't dropped one freaking game and hasn't scored under 100 points

This team is dominating for all the reasons I stated. Amon-Ra is truly thriving as a WR1, Keenan Allen is having a ridic season at the ripe old age of 31, and Kenneth Walker has truly been one of the steals of the draft. Add in that Pickens has been great in certain weeks and a few other positive surprises and Cho's team looks like a tough out for the rest of the season. He's almost already clinched a playoff spot.

Any Teams I Would Add to This Tier? None

Dark Horse:

No Punts Intended (Paul)

Although his team is WR heavy, the 3 heavy WRs could all finish as WR1s. Chase should compete for the overall WR1, DeVonta is in a high-powered offense looking at single coverage thanks to AJ, and Ridley will be TLaw's defacto number 1 option. Herbert was criminally underrated due to his struggles last year (he had broken ribs, missed his left tackle, and was stuck in Lombardi's conservative offense) and although his RBs are weak, If Cook or White can both just be RB2s, this WR corp may be enough to destroy most teams.

Week 7 Prognosis: 11th place, a little bit unlucky but also a little bit his own fault

If you just went by points for, Paul would be in 7th place so there's definitely a lack of luck here. He's also lost 3 matchups by fewer than 1.5 points so there's definitely some unluckiness here. However, let's dive in to some of those losses. In week 2, he barely loses because he benched Mostert, even after Mostert had a solid showing in week 1. In week 3, he tries to ride the hot hand at TE and benches Freiermuth for Kincaid, costing him the win and wasting Mostert's 41.7 point performance. And then in week 6, he gets too cute and benches Herbert and plays the other LA QB. If he could get out of his own way and trust the stars to be stars, He could be 5-1. He's got quite a hole to come out of and while his roster has talent, we'll see if Paul can stay out of his own way.

In Time (Eric)

First off, great team name. Somehow an homage to The Office and a pun based on his best player's name all in one. I'm hoping Eric will make the effort to get a picture of the real Justin as his team's profile pic. But look at this roster and try to find a true weakness. It might be TE but outside of Kelce, TE feels like a wasteland this year. He's got 2 RBs that own their backfield and are young enough to have a breakout year, 3 WRs that have clearly defined roles in great offenses and a QB that should run enough to have a great floor any given week. Watch out.

Week 7 Prognosis: 4th place, some injuries may have him trending down but watch out when he's healthy

JJeff and Fields have been 2 of the most dynamic players not just on this team but in the league. Unfortunately for the next few weeks, they won't be a factor due to their injuries. If ETN and Waddle can carry a little more weight than they are used to and survive until the big stars come back, this should be a difficult team to face in the playoffs.

Any Teams I Would Add to This Tier?

BEST TEAM (Mike): His WRs go 5 deep and if Burrow can get back to being a top tier QB, he doesn't really have any major weaknesses.

One Tyreek Hill (Jon): Hill is having a ridic WR1 season and his 2 best RBs might be the ones that were taken later in the draft. If he can figure out the QB and TE positions, he could make a run.

Cellar Dweller:

MotherKuppin Hamstring Rich’s 삼겹살 Brock Party 🎉🥓 (Rich)

It's not entirely his fault as his team was auto-drafted in the first 4 rounds or so (although it is his fault for not showing up) but it's a tough hill to climb when your first round pick may not be available for a while. And even when he comes back, can a 30 year old Kupp regain his form? And if the Rams suck, will they even risk reinjury? Add to that Davante who somehow downgraded again from Carr to Jimmy G, Aaron Jones who lost Rodgers and will probably lose more work to Dillon, and Mattison, who gets a large opportunity but has never really shown explosiveness in the past. The cherry on top is Daniel Jones at QB. I know real life QB competence doesn't equal fantasy competence but keep me away from anything related to Daniel Jones. Without Kupp, this team truly looks like it'll struggle every week to put up over 100 points.

Week 7 Prognosis: 9th place, shown flashes of greatness and Kupp's return may take them out of this tier

So... I was wrong about Kupp. Davante is still great and Aaron Jones just needs to get healthy again for this team to have some cornerstones that can make them compete with the big boys. He even got rid of the Daniel Jones problem with pleasant surprise Brock Purdy. I'm not saying this is a world beating team but the future is better than I could have predicted.

Saticoy Steel (Dan)

What a great Office callback. Dan, I will reward you one day for being so consistent and on top of your team names. But I really don't understand the strategy of drafting Kelce and Hock in the first 5 rounds. The Kelce Mahomes stack may not be as good this year if Kelce has a hard time recovering at all from his knee injury and teams triple team him due to the fact that apparently nobody else on the team can catch a ball. His WRs are pretty weak, with most of them being on poor offenses or too far down the depth chart to be counted on week to week. I don't want to doubt Dan, who honestly may have been a champ last year, but that 5th round pick will keep me scratching my head.

Week 7 Prognosis: 7th place, so I guess we all saw Dan's master plan

Looks like the whole point of taking TJ is understanding that the market for TE would naturally develop. He was able to trade him for a bell cow back in Mixon and although his team's results have been mixed, it's definitely been better overall since the trade. Mahomes and Kelce is still a tandem that can carry a team to a win in any given week and with Mixon, Marquise, and Breece, he has multiple blow up guys that could carry him to a win in any given week. Watch out for Charles Miner (mine her? I hardly knew her!)

Any Teams I Would Add to This Tier?

David Y Team (David Y): We'll talk more about that trade... in a later post. Stay tuned.

it's all in the hips (Jung): It's not really his fault but when you lose your first round pick (Chubb) and your QB that you thought was going to be a value pick (Rodgers), it's tough to come back from. However, Jung's team has been quite plucky lately so if he can get out of this bye week hell with a win, the future may be rosier than it was after week 2.

Good luck to all!

Week 6 - MOTW

In case you're getting sick of my MOTWs (which by the way, I'm 2-0 on the season, and will now continue to track because it makes me look good), we got some other posts coming in the future. I'll do a look back at the pre-season predictions I made, perform a retrospective of the trades that have occurred, and either do a "best possible draft" or "best pickups of the year" post (or maybe both). So there's some good content coming! Also, since I never seem to actually close out the year on a post, I'm not going to give that expectation going forward. I'll just do a playoff preview, pick my winner, and we'll close out the posts for the year like that.

Without further ado...

MOTW

 8. David Y Team (David Y) vs. 9. Rich’s 삼겹살 Brock Party 🎉🥓 (Rich)

(This MOTW is done assuming David picks his best available replacements for his injured and bye week players)

QB: David ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Rich

Dak has struggled a bit thus far, not quite having any explosive weeks and posting under 10 points twice. But if there's any cure for that, it's the Chargers defense. The Chargers currently remind me of Colts of the 00's. They have such a great offense and score so easily that even though they have some stars on defense and usually get to play with knowing they can rush the passer, they still give up tons of points, resulting in massive shootouts. Dak gets a chance to participate in that shootout. On the other side, in a vacuum, I think I take Brock over Dak. But Brock has the unfortunate luxury of going in to Cleveland (west coast going to the Eastern time zone) and facing a ferocious Browns defense who are coming well-rested off a bye. Slight edge to Dak this week (probably a sentence I won't be saying much this year)

WR: David ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 Rich

Just 3 weeks ago, this matchup would have looked a lot closer. But now that Diggs doesn't rep David's team anymore, This one is clearly a lopsided win for Rich. Kupp is back to doing Kupp things, Davante is matchup and QB proof, and Cooper gets to perform at home after rehearsing routes for 2 weeks with DeShaun (hopefully they didn't go get massages together). While David gets DK back from a bye, AJ Brown will be covered in Sauce on Sunday, and Addison is still a WR3 as the absence of JJ creates more targets but the quality of those targets drops dramatically.

RB: David ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Rich

Here's an interesting conundrum for David: because he gave up so much for Ford, does he feel pressured to start him in place of  Pierce or Montgomery? DMont has been red hot as the red zone option for a surprisingly well-oiled Lions attack. Pierce has gotten insane volume (averaging 19 carries or 21 total opps per game over the last 3) as the surprising Texans are allowing him to be effective. Ford gets a tough SF defense but will David feel the pressure to start him anyways? Should be an interesting game time call. Swift has been a nice surprise for Rich but he gets a rough matchup against a solid Jets front 7. Mattison is losing opportunities quickly and even in what looks like a plus matchup against Chicago, if the Bears play like they did last week, he may find that running room is hard to find.

TE/K/DST: David ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Rich

No big surprises or swings here but I think I'm ever so slightly leaning in David's direction. LaPorta has been a target hog, especially in the red zone. Goedert had one blowup game so I think he falls back to earth and posts his typical single digit performance. I always take the best kicker in football over almost anyone else, even though Bass should get plenty of opportunities against the Giants (or will they all be XPs?). And neither defense plays a terrible offense, so I'll take the one with better talent overall.

Winner: Rich

At first glance, it feels like Rich's team should win in a landslide but on closer examination, due to matchups and David's yet to be updated lineup, I think it will actually be pretty close. Both teams are playing to stay alive as 1-5 or 2-4 is a pretty tough hole to climb out of. Unfortunately, I think David will come to rue his his trade as Rich's receivers carry him to the win.

Season MOTW Record: 2-0

Good luck to all!

Week 5 - MOTW

For those that are expecting it or are curious, yes, I will be doing a trade retrospective at some point in the year. There have already been 3 massive trades in our league that have altered rosters and could potentially swing the competitive landscape and potentially even crown the champion this year as a result of the move. We'll give it a couple more weeks because 1. I don't think our league is done making trades based on the roster construction of some teams and 2. We need a couple more weeks to let the results marinate before we judge them properly (although last week was a very fun week between the Davids and we saw the trade literally swing the win from one team to the other).

In the meantime, let's enjoy another MOTW.

MOTW

7. Saticoy Steel (Dan) vs. 8. No Punts Intended (Paul) - (NOTE: For those wondering how I determine who gets listed first in these MOTWs, it's whoever is ahead in the standings. Small perk of being the better team to that point)

QB: Dan ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Paul

As a Mahomes fan (especially when he led me to my latest title), it's hard for me to ever pick against him. But against a Minny defense that allowed Mayfield to throw 2 TDs, got torched for almost a perfect game by Herbert, and couldn't even pick off Bryce Young? Mahomes is about to feast. We'll talk about the main beneficiary to his monster game later in this post. Stafford should have to throw a lot to keep up with Philly but expect a few mistakes and clock control by Philly to limit his effectiveness.

WR: Dan ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 Paul

Paul's wide receiver group may be the best in the league. It makes sense because he took 3 WRs with his first 3 picks but it's a really imposing group. Even with the underperformance of Chase and Ridley and the volatility of Devonta Smith, all 3 of these guys are arguably top 15 WRs for fantasy purposes. Dan's receivers are more opportunistic or sneaky value. Terry McLaurin is thriving under Bienemy, Marquise is the only star in that WR room, and Jeudy still looks like the best receiver for Russ to consistently throw to on a Denver team that throws a lot because they're behind often. But would I start any of them over Paul's WRs? Probably not (maybe Terry against a putrid Chicago defense).

RB: Dan ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Paul

I think this is the most interesting matchup of this matchup. The highest "rated" RB is probably Mixon and he gets a great matchup against a Cardinals defense that just let CMC score 4 times. Breece Hall has been limited by Wilson but he looks to be getting more comfortable coming back from his injury, Wilson is looking a little more competent, and there have been reports that he will no longer be on a snap count (which is good for the Jets because Cook looks cooked). On Paul's side, Dalvin's younger brother finally looks like a back that the Bills can trust on all 3 downs, although his upside is limited by Allen and other Bills receivers that are red zone threats. Mostert is a gamebreaker but Achane keeps eating into his opportunities and just looks better than Mostert. It's hard to say how Miami will use him on any given week but in that offense, even 10-15 touches may be enough to have a solid week. All this to say, I can't give the edge to either team but the performance of these RBs may be what determines the outcome of this matchup.

TE/K/DST: Dan 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ Paul

Kelce. See the Mahomes analysis above. Enough said...

Okay, I guess I'll expand on this one a bit more. Any TE is going to struggle to match up against Kelce but Kincaid? He might not even be the best TE on his own team. Kelce is going to feast against a Minny defense that struggles to guard the pass. Don't be fooled by their matchup rating against TEs. They haven't faced any real TEs and none of them are the first option like Kelce is. The kickers look like they'll be a wash as they should both get opportunities in an interesting game that's played indoors. Miami hasn't been great as a unit but they should feast against Danny Doo Doo who can't do anything since Saquon has been out. New England is dealing with some injuries and depending on how Carr's shoulder progresses this week, might be in for a challenge from a Saints team that got Kamara back.

Winner: Dan

While Paul's receivers are good, I think the gap that Kelce creates will be tough to make up for Paul's team. Dan moves in to playoff position while Paul digs a big hole that he'll have to find a way to get out of (maybe a trade of one of his vaunted receivers?).

Good luck to all!

Week 4 - MOTW

Wow, how lucky are you guys? 2 weeks, 2 posts. Don't expect this for the rest of the season. Just enjoy it while it lasts.

Let's get into the first MOTW of the year. It matches up 2 bitter rivals, although only 1 side knows about the rivalry. In the wake of a massive trade, will Chris's new additions take him to a W? Or will Jon get to take down his rival (to be clear, Chris is unaware of this rivalry) for bragging rights (not sure who he will be bragging to)?

MOTW

4. One Tyreek Hill (Jon) vs. 6. #winnable (Chris)

QB: Jon ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Chris

At first, I was going to put this all the way to Chris's side. The Hurts 1-yard run is still unstoppable and while the passing offense hasn't been as potent as last year, Hurts should have a fun time with a Commanders defense that just got torn up by a similar QB in Josh Allen. But the reason I have some optimism for Jon is that TLaw actually hasn't been that bad in real life. He's missed a few throws, some drops by the receivers, and a few would-be TDs have been nullified due to a toe over the line. I think he rebounds against a middling Atlanta defense with a mini revenge game factor for Ridley in a game that's pretty much must-win for the Jags to stay as the plucky Super Bowl hopeful.

WR: Jon 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ Chris

Chris just traded his best receiver away and I still believe Christian Watson is one week away so this one firmly belongs in Jon's corner. I actually don't know if I pick any receiver on Chris's team to start over the top 3 receivers on Jon's team. Sutton has become a reliable target for Russ and he faces a putrid Bears defense, Evans is a TD machine, and Tyreek may just outscore Chris's entire WR group.

RB: Jon ◯ ◯ 🟢◯ ◯ Chris

What he lost with trading Olave, he hopes to gain in the RB column. He get Kamara who has fresh legs (not returning from injury, just a suspension) and almost no competition in the backfield. Jon has some decent backs to match with Gibbs screaming potential and Jacobs in a potential bounceback spot against one of the softest run defenses in the Chargers. No Ekeler means Chris has to start a backup back in Gainwell or Zeke and neither one can match Jon's backs. Let's call this one a wash.

TE/K/DST: Jon ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Chris

This one is kind of ugly all around. Henry has been relatively good this year but I don't think he separates himself from all the TEs after Kelce, Hock, and Andrews. Both Kickers should be on offenses that put up a lot of points, but I'm not sure if it'll be them that score them. And both defenses face great offenses, which may mean that Jon and Chris change who they play at that DST spot after this post is finished.

Winner: Jon

I think this one is going to come down to the wire. The winner will be decided by fewer than 10 points but in a close one, I have to give it to the most explosive player and in this matchup, that's Tyreek. I don't think he puts up 39 like week 1, but don't be surprised to see him over 25 this week.

Good luck to all!

Week 3 - Pour One Out For Our Fallen Homies

Only 2 weeks in to the season and it feels like injuries are already ravaging teams. Let's see how these injuries (and other unexpected personnel decisions) impact not only the team with the player, but the teams that picked up the replacement.

Honorable mentions/not sure if there will be an impact: Saquon, Montgomery, Waddle, Richardson

1. Nick Chubb

Impacted GMs: Jung (⬇⬇⇩), David K (⬆⇧)

Jung's team was built on a 2 RB strategy and he expected the 4 legged horse of Chubb + Henry to keep him in most fantasy matchups. Now? He's hoping that Cleveland resigns Kareem Hunt. Meanwhile, David K steals Ford off the waiver wire and he could usurp Conner as the RB2 on that team.

2. Aaron Rodgers

Impacted GMs: Jung (⬇), David K (⬇⇩)

Somehow another player went down who affected the same 2 teams, but this time, they both suffer due to the loss. Jung lost his starting QB in Rodgers and he may have picked up a better option anyways in Goff, but it still hurts to lose your preferred QB1. David K's strategy was built around 2 exciting, young players in Bijan and Wilson and Wilson goes from a mid-tier WR1 to a mid-tier WR2 thanks to Zach's inability to be as effective as Aaron. Bad news for everyone involved.

3. JK Dobbins

Impacted GMs: Mike (⬇)

Tough to see JK go down again and even tougher for Mike who was hoping he could be his sneaky good RB2. Thankfully for Mike, he was able to snag the Gus Bus off the waiver wire but there's a reason Dobbins was the lead back. Gus won't be able to replicate the same success and he'll probably have to split snaps with Justice Hill. 

4. Joe Burrow

Impacted GMs: Mike (⬇⇩), Paul (⬇⇩), Jung (⬇), Simon/Dan (⬇)

So this injury happened in the pre-season but I have a feeling this is going to be a potential lingering disaster. Burrow just doesn't look like himself through 2 games. His game was never built on being crazy mobile but he had underrated athleticism and escapability when needed. Without that aspect of his game, the entire Bengals offense is struggling, but especially Chase. They just don't seem to be on the same page and without Burrow's ability to extend plays, the improvisational plays that came to define their connection has been struggling. Tee and Mixon also get a little bit of a downgrade just due to Burrow's impact reaching in to every part of the offense.

5. Cooper Kupp

Impacted GMs: Rich (⬇⇩⇩), Mike (⬆⬆⇧), David K (⬆⇧)

This one's an interesting one because the impact is currently somewhat minimal but could be bigger as the season goes on. As we all know from playing fantasy for so long, hamstring injuries do not subside quietly, especially for skill position players over 30 (side note: I think all of us are over 30 now other than David K so we can REALLY relate to the struggle of recovering from injuries) who rely on the explosiveness from their legs to create separation. If this lingers, Rich will have a tough road ahead without his first round draft pick. Meanwhile, David K (aka elite scavenger) and Mike have taken advantage by taking Stafford's new favorite targets who have both overtaken Van Jefferson on the depth chart (poor David Y, who tried to preemptively take Van and ended up with the WR3 on that team). Both Puka and Tutu (what a sick name pairing) may end up playing key roles on their new teams.

6. Austin Ekeler

Impacted GMs: Chris (⇩⇩), Rich (⇧)

At first, this looked like a minor injury but now with the team saying that the timeline to return is uncertain, I think this could also be an injury to monitor for the long term. Ekeler is 28 (which is over 30 in running back years) with a lot of mileage. He's had some injury issues in the past so whether the injury lingers or the Chargers staff choose to limit his workload to keep him for their wishful playoff run, there could be a negative impact coming. As for his replacement in Kelley, he gets great opportunity if Ekeler is gone but he didn't do much with it this week. Also, in Rich's muddled backfield with a lot of RBs that could be good but also couldn't, it's hard to say the impact he'll play over the course of a season.

7. Cam Akers

Impacted GMs: Chris (⬇⬇), Simon (⬆⬆⇧)

Originally drafted to be his RB2, Chris lost him even without a significant injury. I swear that Cam must have slept with McVay's girlfriend/wife because I don't understand why he hates him so much. He had a great end to the 2022 season and all of a sudden at only 24 years old, he's unplayable. Simon (learning from David K's scavenging) looks to be the biggest beneficiary as he picked up Kyren even before the news that Cam would be exiled to Siberia. Simon has potential for more upside if Cam Akers gets traded to a lead-RB needy team (see Cleveland, Miami, Indy, or maybe even Baltimore?) he might have another top 24 RB on his hands to use on bye weeks or for trading purposes.

Biggest loser so far as directed by the football gods: Jung (Runner Up: Chris)

Biggest winner so far as directed by the football gods: David K (Runner Up: Mike)

Good luck to all!

2023 - Welcome!

Welcome back to the league!

I know I stopped posting near the end of last year but it was kind of fitting for a season that ended without a champion. Sure, Yahoo may say Jung won but Diggs, Mixon, and whatever kicker Dan had could definitely have scored enough to make up the difference. So if anything, this year feels like we're playing for TWO TIMES THE GLORY. Hopefully everyone is up for the challenge.

Before we get into the dirty business, let's share some good news:

- David Y had a daughter!

- Jon had a son!

- Paul had a daughter!

- Cho moved into his new house (to be fair this may have been last year but I missed it)!

If there's anybody I missed, I do apologize but it also probably means we haven't talked in a while. Don't be a stranger and reach out any time, especially to share good news!

Now to get into the dirty details, let's just get to some of my favorite teams and my least favorite teams as we enter the season.

Favorites:

Let Bijans be Bijans (David K)

What? David K makes my list 2 years in a row?? This is not a mistake. Sure, Bijan and Garrett could be a risky combo, banking on 2 guys under 23. However, Bijan should dominate on an Atlanta team that runs when they're down 28 and Wilson had 1000+ yards with Flacco and Zach Wilson. Imagine what he can do with Rodgers who loves to overtarget his favorite guys. Add to those 2 a Lamar/Andrews stack in what should be a fast-paced offense, Addison who could be a rookie sleeper next to JJettas, and James Conner, an underrated back who has the backfield to himself, and suddenly, David K has got a squad. Warren and Doubs are great sleepers that he basically got for free and Goff could finish as a top 10 QB. Watch out world. David K is coming for his ship.

Jacked Up! (Cho)

Although I'm not a huge Saquon fan this year, the rest of his roster looks great. Amon-Ra already showed us that he's ready to feast as Goff's favorite target. Keenan Allen and Darren Waller could be top 30 players that fell way too far because of the perceived step back they will take due to their age. If Deshaun Watson can regain some of the Houston form (and not sexually harass masseuses), Kenneth Walker holds off Charbonnet and becomes a bell cow back, and one of his lottery ticket WRs pays off (Pickens, Michael Thomas, Alec Pierce), Cho could be coming back to regain the trophy that was once his.

Dark Horse:

No Punts Intended (Paul)

Although his team is WR heavy, the 3 heavy WRs could all finish as WR1s. Chase should compete for the overall WR1, DeVonta is in a high-powered offense looking at single coverage thanks to AJ, and Ridley will be TLaw's defacto number 1 option. Herbert was criminally underrated due to his struggles last year (he had broken ribs, missed his left tackle, and was stuck in Lombardi's conservative offense) and although his RBs are weak, If Cook or White can both just be RB2s, this WR corp may be enough to destroy most teams.

In Time (Eric)

First off, great team name. Somehow an homage to The Office and a pun based on his best player's name all in one. I'm hoping Eric will make the effort to get a picture of the real Justin as his team's profile pic. But look at this roster and try to find a true weakness. It might be TE but outside of Kelce, TE feels like a wasteland this year. He's got 2 RBs that own their backfield and are young enough to have a breakout year, 3 WRs that have clearly defined roles in great offenses and a QB that should run enough to have a great floor any given week. Watch out.

Cellar Dweller:

MotherKuppin Hamstring

It's not entirely his fault as his team was auto-drafted in the first 4 rounds or so (although it is his fault for not showing up) but it's a tough hill to climb when your first round pick may not be available for a while. And even when he comes back, can a 30 year old Kupp regain his form? And if the Rams suck, will they even risk reinjury? Add to that Davante who somehow downgraded again from Carr to Jimmy G, Aaron Jones who lost Rodgers and will probably lose more work to Dillon, and Mattison, who gets a large opportunity but has never really shown explosiveness in the past. The cherry on top is Daniel Jones at QB. I know real life QB competence doesn't equal fantasy competence but keep me away from anything related to Daniel Jones. Without Kupp, this team truly looks like it'll struggle every week to put up over 100 points.

Saticoy Steel (Dan)

What a great Office callback. Dan, I will reward you one day for being so consistent and on top of your team names. But I really don't understand the strategy of drafting Kelce and Hock in the first 5 rounds. The Kelce Mahomes stack may not be as good this year if Kelce has a hard time recovering at all from his knee injury and teams triple team him due to the fact that apparently nobody else on the team can catch a ball. His WRs are pretty weak, with most of them being on poor offenses or too far down the depth chart to be counted on week to week. I don't want to doubt Dan, who honestly may have been a champ last year, but that 5th round pick will keep me scratching my head.

Good luck to all!