Thursday, October 5, 2023

Week 5 - MOTW

For those that are expecting it or are curious, yes, I will be doing a trade retrospective at some point in the year. There have already been 3 massive trades in our league that have altered rosters and could potentially swing the competitive landscape and potentially even crown the champion this year as a result of the move. We'll give it a couple more weeks because 1. I don't think our league is done making trades based on the roster construction of some teams and 2. We need a couple more weeks to let the results marinate before we judge them properly (although last week was a very fun week between the Davids and we saw the trade literally swing the win from one team to the other).

In the meantime, let's enjoy another MOTW.

MOTW

7. Saticoy Steel (Dan) vs. 8. No Punts Intended (Paul) - (NOTE: For those wondering how I determine who gets listed first in these MOTWs, it's whoever is ahead in the standings. Small perk of being the better team to that point)

QB: Dan ◯ ðŸŸ¢ ◯ ◯ ◯ Paul

As a Mahomes fan (especially when he led me to my latest title), it's hard for me to ever pick against him. But against a Minny defense that allowed Mayfield to throw 2 TDs, got torched for almost a perfect game by Herbert, and couldn't even pick off Bryce Young? Mahomes is about to feast. We'll talk about the main beneficiary to his monster game later in this post. Stafford should have to throw a lot to keep up with Philly but expect a few mistakes and clock control by Philly to limit his effectiveness.

WR: Dan   ◯ ◯ ðŸŸ¢ Paul

Paul's wide receiver group may be the best in the league. It makes sense because he took 3 WRs with his first 3 picks but it's a really imposing group. Even with the underperformance of Chase and Ridley and the volatility of Devonta Smith, all 3 of these guys are arguably top 15 WRs for fantasy purposes. Dan's receivers are more opportunistic or sneaky value. Terry McLaurin is thriving under Bienemy, Marquise is the only star in that WR room, and Jeudy still looks like the best receiver for Russ to consistently throw to on a Denver team that throws a lot because they're behind often. But would I start any of them over Paul's WRs? Probably not (maybe Terry against a putrid Chicago defense).

RB: Dan ◯ ◯ ðŸŸ¢  ◯ Paul

I think this is the most interesting matchup of this matchup. The highest "rated" RB is probably Mixon and he gets a great matchup against a Cardinals defense that just let CMC score 4 times. Breece Hall has been limited by Wilson but he looks to be getting more comfortable coming back from his injury, Wilson is looking a little more competent, and there have been reports that he will no longer be on a snap count (which is good for the Jets because Cook looks cooked). On Paul's side, Dalvin's younger brother finally looks like a back that the Bills can trust on all 3 downs, although his upside is limited by Allen and other Bills receivers that are red zone threats. Mostert is a gamebreaker but Achane keeps eating into his opportunities and just looks better than Mostert. It's hard to say how Miami will use him on any given week but in that offense, even 10-15 touches may be enough to have a solid week. All this to say, I can't give the edge to either team but the performance of these RBs may be what determines the outcome of this matchup.

TE/K/DST: Dan ðŸŸ¢ ◯ ◯  ◯ Paul

Kelce. See the Mahomes analysis above. Enough said...

Okay, I guess I'll expand on this one a bit more. Any TE is going to struggle to match up against Kelce but Kincaid? He might not even be the best TE on his own team. Kelce is going to feast against a Minny defense that struggles to guard the pass. Don't be fooled by their matchup rating against TEs. They haven't faced any real TEs and none of them are the first option like Kelce is. The kickers look like they'll be a wash as they should both get opportunities in an interesting game that's played indoors. Miami hasn't been great as a unit but they should feast against Danny Doo Doo who can't do anything since Saquon has been out. New England is dealing with some injuries and depending on how Carr's shoulder progresses this week, might be in for a challenge from a Saints team that got Kamara back.

Winner: Dan

While Paul's receivers are good, I think the gap that Kelce creates will be tough to make up for Paul's team. Dan moves in to playoff position while Paul digs a big hole that he'll have to find a way to get out of (maybe a trade of one of his vaunted receivers?).

Good luck to all!

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