6 weeks are in the books and while it seems a little early, I think now is a good time to take a look at how my pre-season predictions are doing. Was I right? With all the injuries, roster moves (both in real life and in fantasy), and development of players, which teams look like they have the best or worst outlook? (Original predictions in Italics)
Favorites:
Let Bijans be Bijans (David K)
What? David K makes my list 2 years in a row?? This is not a mistake. Sure, Bijan and Garrett could be a risky combo, banking on 2 guys under 23. However, Bijan should dominate on an Atlanta team that runs when they're down 28 and Wilson had 1000+ yards with Flacco and Zach Wilson. Imagine what he can do with Rodgers who loves to overtarget his favorite guys. Add to those 2 a Lamar/Andrews stack in what should be a fast-paced offense, Addison who could be a rookie sleeper next to JJettas, and James Conner, an underrated back who has the backfield to himself, and suddenly, David K has got a squad. Warren and Doubs are great sleepers that he basically got for free and Goff could finish as a top 10 QB. Watch out world. David K is coming for his ship.
Week 7 Prognosis: 3rd place, still looking like one of the frontrunners
David K continues his hold near the top of the rankings but it's not quite because of the reason I had originally predicted. Bijan has been good but not amazing, Wilson has lost Rodgers, and Lamar and Andrews have been underwhelming. Instead, he got to pull off an amazing trade to get a top 3 WR in Diggs and that's just leveled up his entire team's potential every week. If some of the original reasons for optimism start to match the pre-season hype I had for them, David's team could become scary in a hurry.
Jacked Up! (Cho)
Although I'm not a huge Saquon fan this year, the rest of his roster looks great. Amon-Ra already showed us that he's ready to feast as Goff's favorite target. Keenan Allen and Darren Waller could be top 30 players that fell way too far because of the perceived step back they will take due to their age. If Deshaun Watson can regain some of the Houston form (and not sexually harass masseuses), Kenneth Walker holds off Charbonnet and becomes a bell cow back, and one of his lottery ticket WRs pays off (Pickens, Michael Thomas, Alec Pierce), Cho could be coming back to regain the trophy that was once his.
Week 7 Prognosis: 1st place, hasn't dropped one freaking game and hasn't scored under 100 points
This team is dominating for all the reasons I stated. Amon-Ra is truly thriving as a WR1, Keenan Allen is having a ridic season at the ripe old age of 31, and Kenneth Walker has truly been one of the steals of the draft. Add in that Pickens has been great in certain weeks and a few other positive surprises and Cho's team looks like a tough out for the rest of the season. He's almost already clinched a playoff spot.
Any Teams I Would Add to This Tier? None
Dark Horse:
No Punts Intended (Paul)
Although his team is WR heavy, the 3 heavy WRs could all finish as WR1s. Chase should compete for the overall WR1, DeVonta is in a high-powered offense looking at single coverage thanks to AJ, and Ridley will be TLaw's defacto number 1 option. Herbert was criminally underrated due to his struggles last year (he had broken ribs, missed his left tackle, and was stuck in Lombardi's conservative offense) and although his RBs are weak, If Cook or White can both just be RB2s, this WR corp may be enough to destroy most teams.
Week 7 Prognosis: 11th place, a little bit unlucky but also a little bit his own fault
If you just went by points for, Paul would be in 7th place so there's definitely a lack of luck here. He's also lost 3 matchups by fewer than 1.5 points so there's definitely some unluckiness here. However, let's dive in to some of those losses. In week 2, he barely loses because he benched Mostert, even after Mostert had a solid showing in week 1. In week 3, he tries to ride the hot hand at TE and benches Freiermuth for Kincaid, costing him the win and wasting Mostert's 41.7 point performance. And then in week 6, he gets too cute and benches Herbert and plays the other LA QB. If he could get out of his own way and trust the stars to be stars, He could be 5-1. He's got quite a hole to come out of and while his roster has talent, we'll see if Paul can stay out of his own way.
In Time (Eric)
First off, great team name. Somehow an homage to The Office and a pun based on his best player's name all in one. I'm hoping Eric will make the effort to get a picture of the real Justin as his team's profile pic. But look at this roster and try to find a true weakness. It might be TE but outside of Kelce, TE feels like a wasteland this year. He's got 2 RBs that own their backfield and are young enough to have a breakout year, 3 WRs that have clearly defined roles in great offenses and a QB that should run enough to have a great floor any given week. Watch out.
Week 7 Prognosis: 4th place, some injuries may have him trending down but watch out when he's healthy
JJeff and Fields have been 2 of the most dynamic players not just on this team but in the league. Unfortunately for the next few weeks, they won't be a factor due to their injuries. If ETN and Waddle can carry a little more weight than they are used to and survive until the big stars come back, this should be a difficult team to face in the playoffs.
Any Teams I Would Add to This Tier?
BEST TEAM (Mike): His WRs go 5 deep and if Burrow can get back to being a top tier QB, he doesn't really have any major weaknesses.
One Tyreek Hill (Jon): Hill is having a ridic WR1 season and his 2 best RBs might be the ones that were taken later in the draft. If he can figure out the QB and TE positions, he could make a run.
Cellar Dweller:
It's not entirely his fault as his team was auto-drafted in the first 4 rounds or so (although it is his fault for not showing up) but it's a tough hill to climb when your first round pick may not be available for a while. And even when he comes back, can a 30 year old Kupp regain his form? And if the Rams suck, will they even risk reinjury? Add to that Davante who somehow downgraded again from Carr to Jimmy G, Aaron Jones who lost Rodgers and will probably lose more work to Dillon, and Mattison, who gets a large opportunity but has never really shown explosiveness in the past. The cherry on top is Daniel Jones at QB. I know real life QB competence doesn't equal fantasy competence but keep me away from anything related to Daniel Jones. Without Kupp, this team truly looks like it'll struggle every week to put up over 100 points.
Week 7 Prognosis: 9th place, shown flashes of greatness and Kupp's return may take them out of this tier
So... I was wrong about Kupp. Davante is still great and Aaron Jones just needs to get healthy again for this team to have some cornerstones that can make them compete with the big boys. He even got rid of the Daniel Jones problem with pleasant surprise Brock Purdy. I'm not saying this is a world beating team but the future is better than I could have predicted.
Saticoy Steel (Dan)
What a great Office callback. Dan, I will reward you one day for being so consistent and on top of your team names. But I really don't understand the strategy of drafting Kelce and Hock in the first 5 rounds. The Kelce Mahomes stack may not be as good this year if Kelce has a hard time recovering at all from his knee injury and teams triple team him due to the fact that apparently nobody else on the team can catch a ball. His WRs are pretty weak, with most of them being on poor offenses or too far down the depth chart to be counted on week to week. I don't want to doubt Dan, who honestly may have been a champ last year, but that 5th round pick will keep me scratching my head.
Week 7 Prognosis: 7th place, so I guess we all saw Dan's master plan
Looks like the whole point of taking TJ is understanding that the market for TE would naturally develop. He was able to trade him for a bell cow back in Mixon and although his team's results have been mixed, it's definitely been better overall since the trade. Mahomes and Kelce is still a tandem that can carry a team to a win in any given week and with Mixon, Marquise, and Breece, he has multiple blow up guys that could carry him to a win in any given week. Watch out for Charles Miner (mine her? I hardly knew her!)
Any Teams I Would Add to This Tier?
David Y Team (David Y): We'll talk more about that trade... in a later post. Stay tuned.
it's all in the hips (Jung): It's not really his fault but when you lose your first round pick (Chubb) and your QB that you thought was going to be a value pick (Rodgers), it's tough to come back from. However, Jung's team has been quite plucky lately so if he can get out of this bye week hell with a win, the future may be rosier than it was after week 2.
Good luck to all!
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