Week 16 - Playoffs?

Let me start this post by saying that I hate Sean McVay. Don't tell me you're splitting carries when one guy is going to take 70% of the snaps. Don't tell me you're going by feel if you're going to allow Michel to get multiple negative yard plays and still don't sub him out. In my memory of the season, every other RB1 who returned from injury or COVID was reinstated in that role upon their return. Except Henderson. I hope the McVay never wins a ring.

With that said, congratulations to the four participants in this year's playoffs. None of the remaining teams have won so we will be welcoming somebody new to the champions' circle. We got some old blood (Jon and Mike) and some new blood (Chris and David Y). Instead of traditional MOTWs, let's do some team by team analysis before we make matchup predictions. Since this year has been so wacky and full of injuries, we'll focus on key moves made by each manager, their biggest losses, and how I predict they will do in the next two weeks.

1. Fe-Brees (Jon)

Best Move: Trading Devonta Smith for Javonte Williams

Key Losses: Chris Godwin (WR2), T.J. Hockenson (TE1)

Star Player: Jonathan Taylor

Like I mentioned a few weeks ago, JT could carry Jon all the way to the ship this year. The number of running backs that have gotten hurt, entered into time shares, or may end up missing time due to COVID has been staggering. Amidst all of that, JT has been the clear cut RB1. I honestly think even with the two losses mentioned above, Jon has the most complete team left in the playoffs. Chase Claypool isn't the worst replacement for Godwin and Gronk should actually be helped by the loss of Godwin. But JT + DMont should be the key to Jon taking home his first ever trophy but I'm predicting a second place finish. More on that to come.

2. #winnable (Chris)

Best Move: Picking up Nick Folk

Key Losses: DeAndre Hopkins (WR1/2), Logan Thomas (TE1), Henry Ruggs (WR3/4)

Star Player: Cooper Kupp

If JT is carrying Jon to the ship, Kupp is the equivalent from the WR spot for Chris. Stafford has proven that he grew up in the south, showing his racism by only targeting Kupp since he moved to LA. Kupp is far and away the WR1 on the year as he sets a record-breaking pace in real life, not just in fantasy. But I think Chris has to settle for third as he goes up against a team that has a weapon that makes you invincible in fantasy. More on that to come.

4. David Y Team (David Y)

Best Move: Picking up Van Jefferson

Key Losses: Sterling Shepard (WR3/4), D.J. Chark (WR3/4), Elijah Moore (WR2/3), Mike Evans (WR2) - maybe?, Tyreek Hill (WR1) - maybe?, Austin Ekeler (RB1) - maybe?

Star Player: Austin Ekeler

My goodness, this roster is in trouble. David has mostly avoided huge injuries and misses due to COVID but if you look at his roster right now, it's all red. Evans is dealing with a hamstring issue, Hill is on the COVID list, and Ekeler has both an ankle injury AND on the COVID list. If his players can play, he's got as good a shot as any but I have a feeling that his luck runs out with a disappointing 4th place finish.

6. BEST TEAM (Mike)

Best Move: Drafting Patrick Mahomes

Key Losses: CMC (RB1)

Star Player: Patrick Mahomes

I've harped on this multiple times now but whoever drafts Mahomes has won our league the last 3 years. I believe this is the best move any manager can make. Why he isn't going first overall baffles me every year when it's a guaranteed ship. No, this is not correlation. This is 100% causation. Mike gets his first trophy as Mahomes gets 40+ in each of the next two weeks. Also, all his guys have already had COVID this year so looks like they'll be ready for the remaining two weeks.

Good luck to all!

Rule Refresher:

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $400, Seeds 4-6 receive $250 (If the season is cancelled before all games are played this week)
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $450
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 16 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $825 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $75 each.

Week 15 - COVID Rule Refresher

Sorry about not posting this week but had a busy one with prepping for the move back to Chicago. The main thing I wanted to highlight based on the surge of NFL COVID cases is the payout structure in case the fantasy season gets cancelled. We will use the same rules as last year, just adjusted for our payouts this year (I believe this means making every value about 50% larger). Since we are in the playoffs, I've updated the rules for potential outcomes below.

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $400, Seeds 4-6 receive $250 (If the season is cancelled before all games are played this week)
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $450 (If the games this week are completed)
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 16 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $825 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $75 each.

Hopefully we can finish out the season but in case we can't we'll have to adjust to the payouts above. Thanks for understanding and stay safe!

Good luck to all!

Week 14 - Double MOTW!

Originally, I was only going to do a Perfect Team post since I thought all 6 teams for the playoffs would be set but we now have 2 HUGE matchups that could really shake up the playoff race. So maybe I'll save the perfect team post for next week's wild card matchups (since most of the teams in this MOTW have a good chance of being featured again next week). 

On to our first MOTW:

MOTW

10. Football is Death (David K) vs. 11. Scary Terry McScorin (Paul)

Just kidding. Just wanted to rag on the Kim brothers again. Ironically, they are the only 2 teams to not feature in any MOTW this year. Maybe they'll make the consolation finals so they can feature at least once on this blog?

But in all fairness, they've had some terrible luck. David lost Ridley (2nd round pick) due to mental health issues, Gus Edwards (4th) to a season ending injury, and Mostert (6th) to nagging issues. Paul's issue haven't been as bad but with Kamara (1st), AJ Brown (2nd), and Kyler (5th) missing large chunks of time due to injury and Trey Sermon (6th) just evaporating into thin air, it's been tough sledding. Michael Thomas not coming back at all definitely deflated Paul's hopeful balloon even further.

MOTW

7. Dak 똥꼬몽 (Rich) vs. 8. Jacked Up! (Cho)

Thanks to a massive win with the 2nd most points scored last week, Cho is right back in it. He needs some help but if he can knock off his main competition in Rich this week AND make up the point differential on Mike, he'll secure a spot in the playoffs. He's currently trailing Mike by 50 points but if you saw last week, he outscored Mike by almost 70 points; it's a possibility. Rich on the other hand needs to end this 3 game slide. If he can just win and pray for Mike to lose, he already has a 20 point lead on Mike in the tiebreak scenario. But either way, if Mike loses, only one of these teams can get in. Who will it be?

Key Players on Bye: 

Rich - Goedert (TE1)

Cho - Gaskin (RB2/3), Indianapolis D (D1)

Key Injuries: 

Rich - Chase Edmonds (RB2)

Cho - Michael Carter (RB2/3), AJ Brown (WR3, Suspended)

QB: Rich ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Cho

Dak struggled last week against a very solid New Orleans defense and instead of forcing the issue, he did what he needed to win the game. He should get more opportunities to throw against a Football Team team (?) that has allowed QBs to absolutely roast them. But on the other side, Taysom Hill gets arguably the easiest matchup for QBs in the league. A non-competitive Jets team that should be like running a practice against should be ripe for fantasy points. Dak is clearly the better player but with his red zone TD vulturing ability, Taysom should put up a close fight.

WR: Rich ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Cho

This one looks to be closer than expected at first glance. Yes, Justin Jefferson, especially without Thielen and possibly Dalvin, is going to be a monster, most likely putting up 20+ points. But his talent drops off fast. D.J. hasn't found much success with Cam (but he does get a Falcons defense that can be torched), and Tre'Quan is a desperation play. Assuming Deebo plays at 100%, I would lean towards Cho winning this battle. All his receivers are WR2 and up as the 1 or 1A/B options in their offense. But Deebo's health and the absence of AB make starting Reynolds a real possibility. And for that, there's too much uncertainty to really call this for either team.

RB: Rich ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Cho

Another close matchup as we have backfields that look like mirror images of each other. For one, both Zeke and Aaron Jones have been solid but have started losing some time share to Pollard and Dillon, respectively. They should still be top 24 RBs on the week but the amount vultured could determine this matchup. Both of them play winnable games and should see 15+ touches. Gibson and Mitchell continue to operate as the bellcow back for their respective teams that like to run the ball and control the clock to win close games against better opponents. They both face teams that should make the playoffs and therefore may need to be more involved in the pass catching business this week.

TE/K/DST: Rich ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Cho

Another wash? Kittle and Waller are two of the premier TEs in the league, Zuerlein and Gay get to play behind top tier offenses that should set them up for many opportunities (the only question being whether they are FGs or XPs), and although Cho hasn't chosen a defense yet, there's still defenses available that play exploitable opponents.

Winner: Tie? But if I have to pick, Rich

This one is going to be close. I'd say the final score is within 10 points and isn't determined until OBJ and Gay take the field on Monday night. Although the circles don't show it, I'm giving Dak a slight edge over Taysom Hill that I think will be the difference. Also, I don't trust that Deebo will be 100% meaning either a limited performance or a Josh Reynolds substitute.

MOTW

2. #winnable (Chris) vs. 6. BEST TEAM (Mike)

The entire MOTW above is pretty much useless if Mike happens to win this week. But with injuries mounting, it will be an uphill climb. In his way this week is Chris, looking to secure a first round bye. If he loses, he will almost certainly not get the bye as Jon has too many points on him and one the 2 teams below him who are tied on record are facing each other. But if he wins? As long as he outscores the winner of that 3-4 matchup, he'll be drinking mojitos during week 15 while 4 teams fight to the death.

Key Players on Bye: 

Chris - Miles Sanders (RB2), Nick Folk (K1)

Mike - Jaylen Waddle (WR3)

Key Injuries: 

Chris - Logan Thomas (TE1)

Mike - CMC (RB1, RIP), Thielen (WR1/2), Potentially all his RBs?? (more below)

QB: Chris ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Mike

Do I have some vested interest in Mahomes? No. Do I want to continue to see the greatest QB of all time have success? Yes. My theory on Mahomes's stuggles (outside of the numerous drops by his receivers) is that he had a kid this past offseason. I'm sure he can afford all the help he needs but it's still a different stress that he's never had before. But all this doesn't seem to matter when he plays against the Raiders. Expect big points. Brady won't be as focused on stats against a solid Buffalo defense. Instead, he'll be making sure he can win the game, which could entail a lot of Fournette after seeing what the Patriots did to the Bills on Monday night (worst game ever). 

WR: Chris 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ Mike

The loss of Thielen hurts a lot here. Even with Thielen this green circle was going to lean Chris's way but now, I can't see how Mike is able to compete. Chris got Hopkins back last week and may have the most formidable receiving corp in the league: 3 legit WR1s on any given week who are the WR1A or 1B on their given teams. Mike has to trust that Lockett blows up the Texans secondary, Cooks tries to match Lockett on the other side of the ball, and that Mooney teaches Dalton or Fields how to get the ball to him. If the top 3 receivers out of the 6 involved are all on one team, that's a strong green circle in their direction.

RB: Chris ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Mike

So this one is assuming that all of Mike's running backs are healthy and ready to go. Currently, all 3 startable backs (assuming Hilliard is an insurance option) are listed as questionable. We'll see how they progress in practice this week but if Mixon and Gordon (vs. the Lions) are your two options, that's not bad. It's certainly better than Singletary against a stout TB defense. Chubb is usually reliable but struggled mightily against the Ravens before the bye. He gets the same Ravens defense in a pivotal divisional matchup. I don't think he'll perform as poorly as week 12 but I think his ceiling may be capped.

TE/K/DST: Chris ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Mike

No major gamechangers here. Freiermuth and Ertz have both been super TD dependent so it's hard to gauge their level of production. Neither kicker is anything to write home about but it is interesting that they have opposing kickers, giving it more of a head to head feel. Cincy's defense has been underrated but SF hasn't really been turning the ball over much lately as they keep the ball out of Jimmy G's hands. I assume Mike will change out the Cardinals defense for someone with a friendlier matchup OR he may be hoping for another Stafford pick six (3 in the last 4 games).

Winner: Chris

Unfortunately for Mike, all the injuries and underperforming his stars did comes back to bite him as he falls to Chris. I think the WR difference is too much to make up and will decide this matchup.

So who makes the playoffs??

I think Rich just edges out Mike as he wins the high scoring affair against Cho and thanks to the cushion he's built up, Mike can't hold on with his PF.

Good luck to all!

Week 13 - MOTW

With only 2 weeks to go, there's a huge matchup this week with 2 teams playing for very different prizes.

MOTW

1. Fe-Brees (Jon) vs. 7. Dak 고기 (Rich)

Jon has vaulted to the top of the standings, winning 5 of his last 6 after starting out .500. But his only lead on the 4 other 8-4 teams is his point differential. If he can pull off a victory this week, he'll all but secure a crucial bye, bringing him one step closer to the prize. Rich isn't fighting for a bye. He's just fighting to get in. He most likely needs to win both of his matchups, hope for some losses to the teams above him, and score enough to usurp one of the other teams that will be 8-6.

Key Players on Bye: 

Jon - Aaron Rodgers (QB1), Jarvis Landry (WR4)

Rich - D.J. Moore (WR2), AJ Dillon (RB2/3)

Key Injuries: 

Jon - None

Rich - Darren Waller (TE1), Chase Edmonds (RB2)

QB: Jon ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Rich

I like Dak better in a vacuum but he plays a stingier New Orleans defense while Stafford is looking to rebound after 3 losses against a beatable Jaguars secondary. Stafford has been the cause of some of those losses, throwing pick sixes over and over again, but I think this is going to be his rebound game. If Rodgers had played, Jon may have been able to steal the green dot.

WR: Jon ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Rich

Both teams miss a WR this week but clearly one is more important than the other. Moore is a clear starter while Landry is most likely only a bye week filler. Jon has 3 end zone threats who all play against beatable secondaries and games that could end up being high scoring. Justin Jefferson should be able to hang but Boyd and Samuel are dart throws. Even at their best, they're most likely not able to match the production of any of Jon's receivers.

RB: Jon ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Rich

JT has been on an absolute tear until last week (why Frank Reich wouldn't use him until the 4th quarter when they had a big lead, I will never understand #firefrankreich). This week, he gets one of the softest defenses in the NFL where the game script should read "FEED JT." Expect an explosion. Montgomery has regained his workhorse role after injury but gets a tough matchup with little to no talent from under center, meaning stacked boxes and capped ceilings. Eli Mitchell was sick last week but I can't trust Shanahan to continue to feed one back. Maybe he explodes for 30 this week but I could also see him score under 10 points. Zeke has been losing touches to Pollard and the matchup this week doesn't help. 

TE/K/DST: Jon ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Rich

Not sure who Jon is going to take on defense yet but whoever he takes and KC should be a wash. I think Joseph and Gay both get many tries as their offenses should move the ball easily in domed conditions. Gronk was a target monster last week but I don't trust any one receiver in the TB offense. I'd guess that last week was higher than average and Goedert's performance last week suffered due to Hurts playing one of his worst games of the season. I think this week, they both regress to the mean and end up cancelling each other out.

Winner: Jon

Missing players due to byes and injuries clearly affects Rich's team more than it does Jon's. Rich's desperation to win this week just isn't enough as his team lacks the talent to face off against the current league leader. Looks like the playoff standings may be set after this week.

Good luck to all!

Week 12 - Precisely Predicting the Propitious Playoff Participants

I was actually going to write this post last week but that Monday night game was so intense, it warranted its own article.

The only problem now is, there's basically only 7 teams that are fighting for the 6 playoff spots. While not completely eliminated, anyone who is 4-7 basically needs to win out, make up big point differentials, and pray for teams to lose. 3-8 teams need to wait until next year.

But for the 7 teams left, knowing one of them will be going home is rough, as all 7 have solid teams. So which team is going to be the odd team out? Which 2 teams will secure the bye? And who is fading and gaining steam at just the right time? Let's take these questions one at a time.

Odd Team Out: Come At The King Best Not Miss

I hate writing about my own team but I couldn't avoid it here. The rest of the season schedule for Simon is the worst of any team. He plays Chris (1st), Mike (6th but 2nd most PF), and David Y (4th but 3rd most PF). He probably has the biggest chance of losing out which doesn't bode well for his chances. Had he won one of his two nailbiters (GG to Dan and Jung), he would have been much more comfortable and probably would have been able to absorb a 3 game losing streak going into the playoffs. But now only a game ahead of Mike and Rich, a back to back seems unlikely. I guess everybody was truly ready to come at the king.

Top 2 Teams: Najee in your bahjee 🍆 (currently 2nd) and Fe-Brees (currently 3rd)

Both of these teams have extremely easy schedules to close out the year. Chris, currently in 1st, has been fading a bit as he faces Simon, Mike, and Jung to end the season. Outside of that matchup with Chris, Jung gets Cho (8th) and Eric (11th). Jon has an even easier path as he faces Dan (9th), Eric (11th), and Rich (7th). But something else makes me think Jon is going to be sneak into the top 2

Hottest Team: Fe-Brees

I don't know if he's the hottest team or if he's just got the hottest player but this season, that might be enough. We've seen RBs carry teams to championships in years past (Shaun Alexander, LT, Derrick Henry) and this year looks like one of those years. Now granted, one RB can't do everything but it's not like Jon's team is devoid of talent outside of JT. Montgomery is a borderline RB1 with the volume and schedule he has and while his WRs are a bit more boom or bust, he can rely on Rodgers and Stafford to rain fire from the QB position. Nobody is going to want to play this team in the playoffs

Honorable Mention: BEST TEAM

Mike's team has been hit with some injuries and unforeseen poor performances .But now that everyone is back and clicking, take a look at this lineup. Mahomes is looking like Mahomes again and that means he's a threat to drop 50 each week. His floor is definitely lower but that ceiling is still there. With Russ back, Lockett becomes dangerous again. Thielen is still the WR 1A or 1B on a Minny team that somehow still has a chance in the NFC. Waddle and Cooks can be deployed based on their matchups and they're both the WR1 on their respective teams. CMC is back and healthy and the time off may actually help him keep his legs through the fantasy postseason. Cincy didn't know how to use Mixon in the first 5 or 6 games but the last 3 games have seen him truly be a borderling RB1/2. Finish off the starting lineup with a rejuvenated Ertz on one of the most dangerous offenses in the league. Mike has a good chance at keeping the Mahomes streak alive (in case you didn't know, every team that has drafted Mahomes since he became the full time starter has won the league).

Fading Team: #winnable

Chris's team has looked unstoppable a lot of weeks. That's why he's in first place. But his team relies a bit too much on explosiveness and some of that looks to be fading for some of his key players. Kupp has still been great but he's regressed a bit on his TD production, which changes his scores from the high 20s to the high teens. Brady is starting to focus more on winning rather than gaudy stats so his 35+ outbursts are turning into consistent 20-something performances instead. Hopkins and CeeDee are both playing in offenses that like to spread the ball around so while they remain elite talents, the range of their production varies wildly. Now, none of this is to say that Chris's team sucks. But when your last 3 performances only netted you 89, 86, and 95 points, I'd say that that's not a team that anyone is afraid of in the playoffs.

Honorable Mention: Najee in your bahjee 🍆

What? Didn't you just say this team was going to be a top 2 seed? And he's won 5 in a row. Yes, I understand but let's take a deeper look at that win streak. 3 of those wins came against non-playoff teams and he only averaged 102.86 points per matchup, hardly a worldbeating score. While Najee and Davante are locks to be great and Chase has been a pleasant surprise. the talent drops off quickly. Russ hasn't been able to regain his form since his injury and Carr has dealt with too much drama to focus on being a great QB. His 3rd WR spot is a little shaky and Swift has been unbelievable but it's still hard to trust anybody on the Lions in the playoffs, even if it's just fantasy playoffs. I don't think Jung's team is an easy out but compared to some of the others in the hunt, I don't think his is as imposing.

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone and good luck to all!

Week 11 - Another Crazy Monday Night

Man, Monday night games sure are fun. Unless you lose. Then it's not as fun. But once again, we had some intense finishes in matchups this week, with 2 ending with a margin of less than 2 points. Let's break them down from least to most exciting:

6. Rich vs. Mike

The only matchup that didn't have any Monday night players was actually a thriller on Sunday night. If Mahomes had been able to put up a 60 spot with a few more kicks from Butker and a Waller injury, we could have seen one of the most ridiculous comebacks ever. But the gap Rich built during the day was too big to overcome.

5. David Y vs. Eric

Before: David up 35.1

Final: David wins by 28.4

Eric had a huge deficit to overcome but with Aiyuk regaining form recently and Higbee an end zone threat, it looked like this could be a possibility. But alas, game script was determined in the first quarter in what had to be one of the shortest football games in history (it ended in under 3 hours). The 49ers ran the ball more than 40 times and Higbee, even though he had multiple opportunities, couldn't finish his catches. A matchup that should have been more intriguing lost its appeal before halftime.

4. Dan vs. Chris

Before: Dan up 26.9

Final: Dan wins by 8.2

Dan was up a solid amount with 2 players left on Chris's squad. Unfortunately for Dan, one of these players was Kupp, who could make up that deficit on his own. The other was the Rams defense who just added Von Miller and was probably ready to go and wreak havoc on non-elite QB, Jimmy G. Well, Kupp did his part, adding 122 yards on 11 catches. All the Rams needed to do was limit the 49ers to 13 points or less, sack him 4 times and generate a couple turnovers. Instead, they got trounced by the 49ers run game, only sacked Jimmy once, and couldn't get the 49ers to turn over the ball. The game script nobody expected came to fruition, resulting in a rare loss for Chris.

3. Cho vs. David K

Before: David K up 33.52

Final: Cho wins by 14.58 (MONDAY NIGHT COMEBACK)

Honestly, the game script favored David. Gay hadn't had many opportunities and probably wouldn't as the Rams were trying to close a big deficit and OBJ was on a limited snap count due to just joining the team. David absorbed Kittle's first TD and even Deebo's rush TD. All that was left was for the 49ers to run the clock out. Officially, he lost the lead in the 3rd quarter on a short pass to Deebo. But he still had a small chance if there was a fumble or negative yards. Instead, Deebo caught a 40 yard TD (we'll cover this play later) that put this matchup away for good before Gay added an unnecessary FG (more to come on this one too) to pour salt in the wound. David K must hate Mondays more than the rest of us.

2. Simon vs. Paul

Before: Simon up 14.3

Final: Simon wins by 1.02

My goodness was this close. Simon needed every single one of those 14 points he had built up on Sunday to hold off Jimmy G. With Darrell Henderson completely phased out of the game due to the Rams playing from behind, Simon just had to pray that Jimmy G wouldn't get 21 points. The game script was actually favorable as they continued to run the ball over and over. But in the 4th quarter, after the Rams stopped the 49ers on 3rd down, Simon walked away to tend to his children, expecting a punt from the 49ers. Instead, they went for it on 4th and 6 and not only did they convert, it became a TD, adding 7.6 points to Paul's score. At this point the matchup was within 2 points. Thankfully for Simon, after the TD, the 49ers didn't attempt another pass. Although Simon got hemorrhoids from squeezing his butthole as he barely hung on, it was a small price to pay for a fantasy win.

1. Jung vs. Jon

Before: Jung up 13.54

Final: Jung wins by 1.72

Jung had to have expected to lose. Jung had a pretty poor showing on Sunday (<82 points) and Stafford just needed to put up 14 points to put away another win for Jon. And then a pick. And then a pick six. All of a sudden, Stafford was at negative points and the 49ers were eating the clock away. The bad news is, when a team is down, they're going to throw the ball more. Eventually Stafford got his first TD. And while they went 3 and out over and over an in the 2nd half, there was a drive near the end of the game where the 49ers were sitting back in a shell and allowing the Rams to move the ball. It seemed inevitable that Stafford would continue to throw, score a TD, and eventually make up the few points that Jon needed to win. Then all of a sudden, on 4th and goal from the 19, they... kicked a FG?? In a 24 point game, they kicked a FG?!?! Now I understand that the chances of converting on 4th and 19 is slim to none but if you're not just running the ball to kill the clock, what's the harm in going for it on that play? This one baffled me. But Jung didn't care. He had survived.

ONE FRIENDLY REMINDER: The trade deadline is this Saturday so all trades must be accepted by 11:59PM that day (I don't know what time zone but I think it is Pacific).

Good luck to all!

Week 10 - MOTW

 We've officially crossed the halfway mark of the NFL season, although we're even further along in our fantasy one. With only 5 more weeks until playoffs, look out for a playoff prediction column next week. In the meantime, we look at two of the teams trying to stay in the hunt...

MOTW

5. BEST TEAM (Mike) vs. 6. Dak 고기 ALL DAY (Rich)

Two teams currently in the playoff race. One will move to 6-4 and build an extra game cushion from falling out of contention and even possibly compete for the bye. One will fall to 5-5, one game closer to the 4-6 teams that are trying to steal a playoff spot in the last few weeks of the season. Mike's team has been ravaged by missed games so he needs every win he can get until his team is healthy again. Rich has been a bit unlucky (4th most PA) but has some great matchups this week to try to extend his win streak to 2 games.

Key Players on Bye: 

Mike - Brandin Cooks (WR2), Joe Mixon (RB1/2)

Rich - None

Key Injuries: 

Mike - Kareem Hunt (RB2)

Rich - Chase Edmonds (RB2)

QB: Mike ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Rich

I don't believe in this narrative of Mahomes's demise. I think there are concerns that Kelce can't get open, teams are taking the deep ball away from Hill, and that nobody has emerged as a viable WR2 for this offense (#freeJoshGordon), but in a divisional matchup that they need to win, I think Mahomes comes through. He'll need to for Mike to stand a chance against Dak playing against a terrible Atlanta team that he should thoroughly dominate to bounce back from a terrible showing against the Broncos (but even in that terrible real-life showing, he put up 22 fantasy points).

WR: Mike ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Rich

It speaks to Mike's team's depth that he can lose somebody like Cooks and still be competitive at the WR position. Lockett gets Wilson back this week and Thielen and Waddle are WR1s or WR1A/B in their respective offenses. Rich has 3 WR1 or 1A/B's as well so this should be a high-scoring position battle. The interesting fight will be between Jefferson and Thielen; whoever gets more love from Cousins this week might decide this matchup.

RB: Mike ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Rich

My goodness. Mike is down Mixon AND Hunt. How is he supposed to compete in this category? Thankfully he got CMC back which helps bring some power to the position (EDIT: this was previously a green circle all the way on Rich's side before Mike but CMC in). It's kind of ridiculous that Melvin is his RB4 when everyone is healthy. Zeke (who should dominate a weak Falcons D) and either AP (who should be in even better shape and more prepared) or D'Ernest (who will be a true workhorse back if Chubb can't play) will be a formidable matchup and I expect this to be a wash.

TE/K/DST: Mike ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Rich

This is a bit TBD based on who Rich picks up for his defense (best options may be a reinvigorated NE, a Broncos team playing at home, or the Packers if Wilson doesn't play). No matter who he picks, the Cardinals may be the best defense to own this week against a horrendous Panthers offense that can't move the ball at all and prefers to give it to the opponents. On the flip side, Ertz has been great for the Cardinals but Waller should feast in a matchup against the Chiefs, especially with no more Ruggs. Kickers seem like a wash, just like this overall matchup.

Winner: Rich, by a hair

Man this one is close. The green circles tell the story as none of them lean one way or the other (obviously this is my assessment, others may disagree). I'll pick Rich just because there's a little more certainty and higher floor to his team. I think certain people on Mike's team (Mahomes, Lockett, Ertz) need to buck an ongoing trend in play to really match up against Rich's team. While I think Mike's ceiling is slightly higher, Rich's floor is miles ahead.

Good luck to all!

Week 9 - How Did I Do?

We're midway though the season and with 6 regular season games to go, everyone is still in it. Yes, if you're 2-6 you probably need, at a minimum, to go 5-1, but I'd say that until you get that 8th loss, you're not 100% out. No team has remained undefeated to this point and 6 teams still have a shot at fighting for the bye. Even with all this drama, there wasn't a clear an obvious MOTW for the week so what I've decided to do is go back on my post-week 1 predictions and see how I did. I've taken the week 1 information and taken a snippet of my analysis and we'll judge how close I was to actuality on a scale of 1 (WTF were you thinking) to 5 (I'm a clairvoyant).

BEST TEAM

5th Round, Adam Thielen - BOOM: 9 catches, 92 yards, 2 TDs

Outlook: Steal that'll continue to pay dividends

...getting 10+ targets a game and recording over 100 receptions on the year...

Rating: 4

The WR16 by total and WR13 by average, Thielen has been the consistent force he's been in previous years. He's got 43 catches and 471 yards through 7 games (already had bye), which puts him well on pace to break 100 catches. He's not quite at 10+ targets but I don't think Mike's complaining about 8.4 a game.

Scary Terry McScorin

3rd Round, Terry McLaurin - BUST: 4 catches, 62 yards

Outlook: Will not perform at the pre-season expectation of WR1/2

...I don't think McLaurin will really be able to live up to his pre-season expectations as a top 15 WR...

Rating: 5

Granted I cheated a little bit on this one since I got to see Fitzpatrick go down in game 1, but Terry has been WR17 on total and WR21 by average so far this year. While this isn't terrible production, Terry was supposed to be top 15, if not top 12 this year, hence his draft position in the third round. While he's not a long way off (1.65 ppg away from WR15), a 3rd rounder was steep price to pay for a middling WR2.

Trey Lance Refrigeration

1st Round, Derrick Henry - BUST: 17 carries, 58 yards, 3 catches, 19 yards

Outlook: May not be as dominant as past years but this was just a bad game

...He won't put up 2k rushing yards, but he will still be a solid RB1...

Rating: 3

So I have to give myself credit in knowing that Henry wasn't going to struggle this season. However, Henry was on pace to easily break 2k yards and not just be a solid RB1 but be THE RB1. He outpaces every RB by a huge margin in total or average. The sad news is that due to his injury, his fantasy season may be over, tanking Eric's season.

richard's cowboys

1st Round, Ezekiel Elliott - BUST: 11 carries, 33 yards, 2 catches, 6 yards

Outlook: Still a mid-RB1 but inability to get involved in passing game still a concern

...with the defense needing to worry about 3 solid receiving options, the lanes will open up...

Rating: 5

The RB10 by total and RB7 by average (taking out CMC and Jordan Howard due to their small sample size), Zeke has been a solid first round pick, scoring below 10 just once since that first week (and even that was 9.3 points). However, the pass game concerns are still lingering, averaging less than 3 catches and 20 yards per game, capping his ceiling.

#ridethewave

4th Round, Cooper Kupp - BOOM: 7 catches, 108 yards, 1 TD

Outlook: Probably his best game of the year

...for the rest of the season, I'll take Woods over Kupp...

Rating: -1?

How wrong was I on this one? Literally the WR1 by total or average. 6 games over 20 points, only 1 single digit game, and that first game has been his 6th game so far this season (out of 8 games). Woods hasn't been bad either in a revitalized Rams offense, but Kupp is 10 ppg clear of running mate. Kupp is providing such good value, he might carry Chris to his first ship (much to the chagrin of Jon and David K).

Football is Life

2nd Round, Calvin Ridley - BUST: 5 catches, 51 yards

Outlook: Life without Julio is tougher, but it's one bad game

...I expect Ridley to brush this one off and still finish as a WR1 by the end of the season...

Rating: 1

WR1 feels like a long way off at this point. We thought all of the targets vacated by Julio would be absorbed by Ridley and Pitts, with the majority going to Calvin. But CPatt's emergence and the Falcons generally sucking has really hampered his ability to produce. He hasn't had a week over 16 points and due to personal matters, he's already missed 2 games, with the potential to miss more. The WR54 by total and WR31 by average, Ridley looks to be one of the bigger busts of the year.

Fe-Brees

7th Round, Aaron Rodgers - BUST: 133 yards, 2 INT

Outlook: Rodgers won't finish as a top 12 QB... unless he's traded

...I really believe he's trying to lower his value so that he will be attainable by a potential contender...

Rating: 2

So it turns out Rodgers wasn't part of a conspiracy... he just had a really bad game... but now, with all this COVID drama, maybe he actually IS part of a conspiracy, just a different one... The crazy thing is, by average, he's actually not a top 12 QB (sitting at QB13 at the moment). By total he's QB8 but missing games due to COVID is sure to drag that down. In the end, my prediction may be right after all.

Jacked Up!

1st Round, Aaron Jones - BUST: 5 carries, 9 yards, 2 catches, 13 yards

Outlook: Hinges on what happens with the other Aaron but the outlook is poor

...Jones will face stacked boxes and negative game scripts...

Rating: 1

So this was a derivative of the conspiracy above so with that one blowing up in my face, this has almost no chance of being correct. Jones has been the RB4 by total and RB10 by average. I will say that his biggest issue has been consistency. He has 3 games below 10 points, making him hard to trust as a true RB1 every week. But even with those risks, he's still easily a top 16 RB.

David Y Team

3rd Round, Mike Evans - BUST: 3 catches, 24 yards

Outlook: Somehow Evans went from WR1 to WR3 on his own team in 3 years

...I foresee a very difficult year for Evans, maybe not even being startable (a top 36 WR)...

Rating: 1

Tom Brady continues to torment me by making my prediction flop once more. Surprisingly, AB, Godwin, and Evans have all been top 25 WRs thanks to the free-flowing and efficient TB offense. The hard part may be picking which receivers are going to pop in which weeks, but all 3 are not just startable but cornerstones to the teams that own them. As the WR11 by average and WR6 by total, Evans is still a superb fantasy piece. 

Justice Beaver

1st Round, Saquon Barkley - BUST: 10 carries, 26 yards, 1 catch, 1 yard

Outlook: He won't live up to his 1st round billing, but he'll finish as a top-24 RB

...he'll develop a more solid floor [...] but he'll never quite get to the expectations people have of him...

Rating: 3

This one is tough to rate. In the games he's played and finished, he's improved every week as NY ramped him up from his injuries, peaking at 27 points in week 4. But the injury bug hit him again and now we're uncertain of when he will return. I will say that when he's healthy, he actually may be able to finish as an RB1 and if he's able to return this or next week, it might be what propels Dan from last place into the playoffs (or more realistically, to the consolation bracket win).

Najee in your bahjee

3rd Round, D'Andre Swift - BOOM: 11 carries, 39 yards, 8 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD

Outlook: His rushing stats won't be pretty but thankfully Goff loves to check down

...could be an RB1 in the right situation but he should still finish in the top 24...

Rating: 4

I may not have been bullish enough on Swift after his solid first game. The RB12 by average and RB8 by total, Swift has been a solid back-end RB1 thanks to his ability to catch the ball and the Lions always playing from behind (literally. They're 0-8). While his rushing numbers don't look great, (11 attempts and 36 yards), his receiving numbers have carried his fantasy value (RB league leading 6 catches and 52 yards a game). Swift's numbers are basically a WR36 and a split backfield RB36 combined; individually, those numbers look atrocious but combined, they create a building block for a playoff team.

Good luck to all!

Week 8 - MOTW

 After that amazing week 6 MNF game, week 7's was a clunker. It started off great with DK's big catch and run and then the entire night just became a bore fest. It looked like Kamara was out there practicing his route running.

So instead of looking at last week, let's look forward to a huge matchup this week.

MOTW

2. David Y Team (David Y) vs. 4. Fe-Brees (Jon)

David has stayed in 2nd place after proving me wrong in week 6 and beating up David K in week 7. He takes on Jon, who has a ridiculously explosive team. David will work on keeping himself in pole position for the bye and distancing himself from one of his biggest competitors for that spot. Jon takes his young, potential-filled squad to close that gap on David and get himself in the top 2.

Key Players on Bye: 

David - Mark Andrews (TE1), Josh Jacobs (RB2)

Jon - Latavius Murray (RB3)

QB: David ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Jon

I know what you're thinking: how is Hurts an advantage over Stafford? Well, Stafford gets to play the garbage Texans team so he really might only be throwing the ball for 2 quarters as they will not risk injury to Stafford while beating up on a lowly team. The Rams have much higher aspirations than to beat the worst team in the league. On top of that, Hurts doesn't play a tough defense either. Add the fact that Hurts adds value with his feet and you'd actually rather have Hurts than Stafford this week (watch me eat my words after Stafford throws 3 TDs to Kupp in the first quarter).

WR: David ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Jon

Once again, David's receivers seem to be being disrespected here but Jon actually might have the highest TD potential WR in the league. Mike Williams is the clear and obvious target for Herbert in the end zone, Metcalf can outjump almost anybody, and Godwin plays in a monstrous offense that allows any of their receivers to be an end zone threat. Yards and catches might be similar across the 2 teams but Jon's TD chances are much higher.

RB: David ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Jon

Ekeler has been unstoppable and coming off a bye week, he should have more pop than normal. But Taylor is looking like an RB1, not just this week, not just a top 12 RB, but potentially the best RB in all of fantasy (other than Najee, Kamara, and Ekeler, I can't think of any other back involved in both the pass and run with ridiculous volume). So even if you call that a wash, David has to play Mike Davis, who is really more of a CPatt handcuff at this point, against an emerging Javonte who looks way more explosive and home-run hitting than Melvin Gordon.

TE/K/DST: David ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Jon

Hockensen has an edge over RSJ but it's not as big as you might think. Heinicke loves his TE and with Logan Thomas out, RSJ has feasted. Hock isn't 100% so this matchup will be extremely close. Bass is in the most explosive offense while Succop isn't far behind. In neutral situations, I'd like Bass but with rain expected in Miami and Succop kicking in a dome, I'll call this a wash. Tampa gets Jameis and as much as I'd love to see Jameis throw 5 TDs one the Franchise that abandoned him, I'm thinking he's more likely to throw 5 picks. Carolina gets an improving Falcons offense, albeit, one that is still prone to turnovers. It's a slight edge to David, basically making these entire 3 positions a wash.

Winner: Jon

I'd like David's chances a little more if he had Josh Jacobs and Mark Andrews, as I think they could potentially be enough to tilt this match in his favor. However, with the given situation, praying for Mike Davis is never a position you want to be in if you're trying to win a week.

Good luck to all!

Week 7 - About Monday Night

Holy crap. I don't think I've seen a Monday night game that affected so many matchups without actually changing the result of any of them. Usually by Monday night, there's only 1 or 2 matchups that can actually be swung but even the ones that seemed to be out of reach got way too close for comfort for some of the managers. Although none of the matchups got overturned, let's take a look at each of the matchups before and after Monday night, from least to most intense.

6. Chris vs. Jon

Not going into this one since it was the only matchup that didn't hinge on Monday's night result. Chris had a huge lead and the only player on Monday night. Unless Singletary had run backwards from the opponents 1 yard line into his own end zone and fumbled it multiple times, there was no way this matchup was swinging.

5. David Y vs. Jung

Before: David up 11.18

Final: David wins by 18.18

This one looked like it had some potential to be a nail-biter. With Dawson Knox a legitimate threat and nothing but his kicker to stop the onslaught, David looked like he might have to hang on until the end of the night. Fortunately for David, Buffalo kicked multiple field goals in the first half and Knox was relatively uninvolved. On top of that, Knox fractured his hand, limiting his effectiveness in the second half. What could have been a comeback by Jung became a rather uneventful night.

4. Eric vs. Paul

Before: Eric up by 6.92

Final: Eric wins by 12.42

Eric had a small lead and Derrick Henry against THREE players for Paul. Sure, Eric had the best player of the bunch but with the Titans expected to need to throw a lot to stay in the game against Buffalo's explosive offense, AJ Brown got a bump in value while Henry should have had a more mediocre game. Instead, the Titans defense came out of nowhere to force turnovers and limit the effectiveness of Josh Allen (kind of) and were able to control the ground game all night. Henry fell into the end zone three times, neutralizing the threat of a comeback every time one of Paul's guys would get a decent chunk gain. If one of the TDs had flipped from Henry to an AJ Brown fade, it would have been enough to flip this score.

3. Mike vs. David K

Before: Mike up by 41.38

Final: Mike wins by 6.66

Honestly, even though Josh Allen is explosive, I had written this one off as a win for Mike. There was no way that Allen was posting another 40burger a week after he dropped 42. But from the get go, Josh Allen looked unstoppable. Sure, there were drives that stalled out into field goals but he was racking up points consistently and before their final drive, Josh was 9.96 points away from pulling off the comeback. I don't know if David was doing the match, but with 82 yards to go, he would need a couple of Josh Allen runs on a TD drive to win the week (to be exact, he would need 12 yards rushing and 70 yards passing). They moved down the field with ease, getting him the passing yards he needed, but once Zach Moss took it inside the Titans 10, it was GG for David. You might think the failed 4th and 1 was what killed David's chance but it was actually over 3 plays before (unless you think about the fact that maybe they shouldn't have gone for it in the first place, kicked the FG, and gotten Allen more stats in OT).

2. Simon vs. Cho

Before: Simon up by 8.1

Final: Simon wins by 3.56

I felt pretty confident going into this matchup. I assumed that even if Tannehill threw, he would have to pepper Julio with targets and that Buffalo could do a good job in limiting the Titans. But once it got to the 4th quarter with Julio out, Tannehill having rushed a TD himself, and Buffalo looking like they couldn't stop a peewee football team, I started to get nervous. Thankfully, the Titans kept feeding Henry, limiting Tannehill's chances to continue to score points. Additionally, McDermott's decision to go for it on 4th down and failing allowed the game to end, rather than giving Tannehill some additional chances at adding more points AND allowing Tennessee to break the 35 point threshold, making me lose 3 more points in the process. All in all, an extremely stressful night.

1. Dan vs. Rich

Before: Rich up by 23.48

Final: Rich wins by 4.08

Outside of Eric and Paul's matchup which was a true tossup, this one looked to be the most realistic one to be overturned. Sure, Diggs hasn't performed up to his potential but he always performs in primetime and with the number of targets he's been getting against a weak and banged up Titans secondary, this one looked like a comeback special waiting to happen. And it should have... if the Titans hadn't had a HUGE defensive pass interference penalty in the 4th quarter. With 1:48 to go, Diggs beat the corner so bad, he had no choice but to tackle him before the ball got there. Diggs still almost made the catch but almost isn't good enough in fantasy. That catch would have given Dan 10.9 points, more than enough to win the matchup. But alas, he stays in the cellar, hoping for a better week 7.

Good luck to all!

Week 6 - MOTW

We're 5 weeks in and nobody is winless or undefeated. It may be early to say (especially in the new 17 week fantasy season), but I think it portends a crazy end to this season where multiple teams will have a shot in week 14 to get into the playoffs. Let's focus on two teams that can either create some distance from the rest of the league or fall further into the muddled middle.

MOTW

2. David Y Team (David Y) vs. 4. Najee in your bahjee 🍆 (Jung)

Surprisingly, David and Jung are actually 2 of the 3 newest members to our league, even though they joined in 2013 and 2015, respectively (Note: Jung was part of season 1, along with Nelson and Sim, but he took a break for 4 years before making his glorious return). Both have been to the playoffs a handful of time in their years in the league but neither have placed in a money position. With both off to a 3-2 start with high point totals, this could be a great year for one team, if not both, to make their mark on the history of the league. Winning this week would be a key step in improving those odds by getting them closer to the much desired bye.

QB: David ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Jung

While at first it looks like this will be an advantage for Hurts, who will be in a shootout against a secondary that can't stop anyone at the moment, the previous sentence can perfectly fit the description of Heinicke's matchup as well. Somehow both Super bowl participants can't stop anyone through the air and that requires the QB to put up big points. Expect 25+ from both.

WR: David ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Jung

This is no diss to Tyreek, Evans, or Toney (especially Toney who has been ridiculous after the catch; Toney has a chance at being a pickup of the year winner) but Jung legitimately fields 3 top 18 WRs. Adams is a top 3 WR, especially against the Bears. Cooper is a bit more of a dice roll but I expect Bill to focus on stopping Zeke or CeeDee, allowing Cooper to put in a great week. Chase has proven that his year off hasn't prevented the chemistry with Burrow from disappearing and is carving out a WR1 role in an underrated Bengals offense, and this week, he gets a terrible Lions defense.

RB: David ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Jung

At first I wanted to give this to Jung but as good as Najee and Swift have been, Ekeler is on another level. He's legitimately pushing RB1 status in this ridiculous Herbert-led offense. Damien Williams and Jacobs both can put up enough points to make sure nobody gets the advantage in this matchup.

TE/K/DST: David ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Jung

Kickers and DST look to be about even so the edge goes to David for having the 3rd best TE in fantasy you can have right now. Andrews seems like he's on a tier by himself just below the Kelce-Waller level but ahead of every other TE option. Knox has been a legitimate weapon but he's not getting enough weekly volume to put him on the same level as Andrews. 

Winner: Jung

I think the key will be that Heinicke can keep up with Hurts. When Wilson went down, it looked like this week might be a lost cause for Jung, but instead, he's found the best possible replacement. The WR difference should be the deciding factor in this pivotal matchup. This should be a close matchup with both managers watching the Monday night game closely to see how it ends.

Good luck to all!

Week 5 - Why are the weeks flying by so fast?

I didn't even realized I missed last week's post until halfway through the Bengals Jags game. For some reason, this year's season seems to be flying by and we're already a quarter of the way through the NFL season (I guess a little less than a quarter since we play 17 weeks now).

I would try to make up for last week's miss but let's just move on and look forward to the MOTW

MOTW

11. Justice Beaver (Dan) vs. 12. Trey Lance Refrigeration (Eric)

The sight of these two FPI juggernauts as the 2 teams fighting to avoid being the laughingstock of the league seems surreal. But I guess everything in 2021 seems not quite normal. Let's see what brought each of these teams to this point and who is going to avoid being in the cellar going into week 6 (if Eric wins, he would be ahead of Dan in the standings even though they're both 1-3 thanks to being ahead in PF at the moment).

Dan: Usually, Dan's strategy has revolved around having a great QB and a great TE and looking for some flyers at the other positions. He did take a flyer on Pitts, who was supposed to be a top 4 TE, in the 4th round, but didn't pick up a QB until the 10th round. With Pitts not living up to expectations and the QB he waited on (Trevor Lawrence) not being able to take on the expectations that have dogged him from day 1 at Clemson, the bookends of Dan's lineup was not carrying the weight needed to lead his team to victories. He did get his first victory last week thanks to picking up the greatest rushing QB in the league named... Sam Darnold? If Darnold can consistently produce 20+ point outings, it may be enough to support his monster backfield and WRs, who are sure to regress to the mean (Diggs and Tee have been disappointing and injured, respectively).

Eric: His drafted started off great, nabbing two RBs that could both finish in the top 12. But it all kind of went downhill when he started drafting his WRs. ARob is living through Nagy hell (as are all Bears fans), Aiyuk somehow became forgotten after an incredible rookie season, Jeudy got hit with the injury bug after a promising week 1, and Pittman has been getting looks but not producing. His bench is pretty thin outside of his main starters but he has enough top level talent to compete most weeks. Maybe he considers trading a star into 2-3 usable players.

STUDS: Henry vs. Diggs

These two guys are about to go off this week. I don't just mean 100 yards and a TD. I'm talking 25+ for both of them. Henry goes against the Jags where he should get 30+ touches because the game will be in hand by halftime. With Brown and Julio still on the mend, I expect to see them trust Henry in the backfield for a game they should win. Diggs is going to be involved in a shootout on primetime and there's nothing he likes more than showing he belongs in the "elite" conversation. Expect him to hang one of his top 3 performances of the year against KC.

DUDS: Pittman vs. JuJu

Pittman is most likely going to be taken out of the game by Humphrey and with the Colts o-line banged up, I can't see him getting a lot of time to get downfield, even if he gets by the coverage. Juju's bust won't really be his fault but more due to the fact that the rapist can't seem to throw anymore. Combine that with an underrated Broncos defense that's been making life living hell for QBs and it makes it hard to see a big day for any of the Steelers receivers.

Winner: Eric

I think Eric staves off the 0-5 start thanks to his backfield in what will end up being a close matchup. Henry and CEH are just enough to edge Saquon and Robinson, leaving Lamar to be the best of the rest. Lamar should perform well enough against Indy to lead  Eric to victory.

Good luck to all!

Week 3 - FPI Update

First off, I regret making my team name what it is because it's only been 2 weeks, but both teams that have come at the king (me in this case because I won last year), has not missed. Instead, they've absolutely spanked me. So if you come at the king, please feel free to miss.

In other news, it looks like we got 2 big frontrunners in Mike and Chris (something about the people who were recently in Korea) and then a slew of teams trying to stay in the top 6. It's only 2 weeks in but perennial powerhouses Dan, Eric, and Simon are struggling at the bottom as the only teams with no wins.

How do I know these teams are powerhouses? Well, what a great segue into the actual content of this post: the updated FPI! Did I just update this because I happened to win last year? No... (I actually did plan to update it last year but never found the time to) but if that's what you want to believe, I'm okay with that. Here's some required reading on how it is calculated:

1) All playoff performances are measured since I took over as commissioner of the league (2010).

2) You get points for the following things:
Playoff appearance: 1 point
3rd place: 2 points
2nd place: 3 points
1st place: 5 points

3) More recent performance is weighted more heavily than past performance. Going forward, these percentages will probably stay as performance 10+ years ago will not indicate how well they are currently performing:
2020: 24%
2019: 20%
2018: 16%
2017: 13%

2016: 10%
2015: 7%
2014: 4%
2013: 3%

2012: 2%

2011: 1%

4) Certain GMs have dropped out so their teams are counted as being "inherited" by other fantasy GMs. My analysis mostly focuses around Team FPIs in order to ensure enough history for each team to be statistically significant. However, I will make some pointers on interesting observations from each player's perspective.

5) A quick key to how to decode how good a fantasy team is:
>2: Dynastic. Probably cheating like the Patriots (pre-Brady's departure) or just insanely talented like the Chiefs.
1.1-2: Playoff locks and championship threats. Think Packers and Ravens.
0.8-1.1: Playoff contenders but need a little luck to win the whole thing. Comparable to the Browns, Bills, Rams, and Seahawks.
0.3-0.8: Stepladder for above teams to make playoffs. Will they win some games? Yes. But so do the Cardinals, Titans, and Colts but they're not challenging anybody for the ship.
<0.3: Thanks for your donation to the fantasy football payout fund. We encourage you to follow the Jaguars or Lions this NFL season.

Green is good, Yellow is average, and Red is David K extremely disappointing. (Congrats on David for escaping the position of always being the brunt of my jokes.

Comparisons to real NFL teams (not just this year but their history over the past 10 seasons or so), grouped by Player FPI:

Elite:

Brian Cho (2.41) - KC Chiefs: They were always solid before but recently have become a dynasty with no signs of slowing down.

Simon Kim (2.2) - Baltimore Ravens: Win every once in a while but can't seem to string it back to back. However, they're always in the hunt for the next trophy.

Dan Park (2.09) - New Orleans Saints: Won one ship and consistently in talks to win another one

Solid:

Eric Lee (1.19) - Pittsburgh Steelers: Never really a bad year, but biggest successes were in the past and looking to prove himself and stay elite

Rich Kim (1.17) - New England Patriots: At one point, they were a dynasty. Now? They're falling quick. Will need to be more competitive before they slide further.

Jon Lee (0.85) - Dallas Cowboys: So hyped about themselves every year only to make little to no noise in the playoffs. The confidence never wavers though: they believe they are a great team every year.

Mike Lee (0.84) - San Francisco 49ers: Had good performances, followed by a lull, but returning to competitive form. Could this be their year?

Getting there:

David Kim (0.71) - Houston Texans: Had some great highs and showed unlimited potential to be a juggernaut at various points. But some of their personnel moves are baffling.

The opposite of the "cream of the crop":

David Yim (0.23) - Jacksonville Jaguars: Has shown flashes of competing at random points but it's a surprise when they make the playoffs. They've been struggling recently.

Paul Kim (0.21) - Detroit Lions: Does anyone think they're ever actually going to win?

Chris Chung (0.2) - New York Jets: Not sure if they're actually trying to win...

Jung Kim (0.17) - Cincinnati Bengals: They actually made the playoffs a couple time, but flamed out with nothing to show for it. Lately their team has just been a dumpster fire.

We'll see if we can get back to MOTWs starting next week.

Good luck to all!

2021 - Year 12 under Simon Goodell

Welcome back to the league! This is our 4th straight year with the full cast of characters returning, which always increases the possibilities of rivalries due to the familiarity. Much to David Kim's dismay, I am still commissioner of this league and I want to continue something that I started last year where we focus on the positive life events of the past year:

- Mike welcomed a baby girl into the world

- Rich got married

- David Y got married... again (for those that are confused, he just had his ceremony this year, he isn't moving on to a second wife)

- I had my second son

If there's anybody I missed, I do apologize but it also probably means we haven't talked in a while. Don't be a stranger and reach out any time!

Now as we move on to the football side of things, I know some of you are already annoyed that I didn't post a draft analysis. But with only 2 days between the draft and the start of the season, as well as being extremely busy last week, I didn't get a chance. So what we'll do this week is combine a bit of draft analysis with week 1 outputs to see whether or team should be nervous about a poor start or if they need to temper expectations after a hot one. Also, just to give a preview for week 3, since we probably won't really have enough data to start doing MOTWs quite yet, I'll show you an updated version of the FPI to see which teams are actually consistently performing at a high level.

BEST TEAM

5th Round, Adam Thielen - BOOM: 9 catches, 92 yards, 2 TDs

Outlook: Steal that'll continue to pay dividends

Everyone was hyping up Jefferson this offseason but they seem to have forgotten that Thielen is Cousins's first love. While he won't score 2 TDs every week, in a half PPR league, he should make up his worth by getting 10+ targets a game and recording over 100 receptions on the year.

Scary Terry McScorin

3rd Round, Terry McLaurin - BUST: 4 catches, 62 yards

Outlook: Will not perform at the pre-season expectation of WR1/2

With Fitzmagic leaving due to injury, all the Football Team could muster on offense was shallow routes and screens. McLaurin is a great receiver that should still be startable but with Taylor Heinicke under center, I don't think McLaurin will really be able to live up to his pre-season expectations as a top 15 WR.

Trey Lance Refrigeration

1st Round, Derrick Henry - BUST: 17 carries, 58 yards, 3 catches, 19 yards

Outlook: May not be as dominant as past years but this was just a bad game

It's easy to think that Henry may have too many miles as an RB1 and that he is bound to slow down. However, this one week aberration where the entire Titans team played like garbage is more of a blip than the start of a trend. He won't put up 2k rushing yards, but he will still be a solid RB1 thanks to the volume and run-first philosophy of the team.

richard's cowboys

1st Round, Ezekiel Elliott - BUST: 11 carries, 33 yards, 2 catches, 6 yards

Outlook: Still a mid-RB1 but inability to get involved in passing game still a concern

Zeke had to play one of the toughest defenses in the league so I'm not worried yet. They'll continue to be involved in so many shootouts and with the defense needing to worry about 3 solid receiving options, the lanes will open up. However, in a game that was so pass heavy, there is concern that he only saw 2 targets. We'll see if he can continue to expand his game to be more of a receiving threat.

#ridethewave

4th Round, Cooper Kupp - BOOM: 7 catches, 108 yards, 1 TD

Outlook: Probably his best game of the year

While the Stafford upgrade is expected to help everyone on the Rams, I would actually say that Goff was a better fit for Kupp's skills than Stafford. Kupp is a slot man, running the underneath routes and picking up short yardage. Stafford is better known for taking shots downfield and winning on vertical routes. Woods was overshadowed by Kupp in this one but for the rest of the season, I'll take Woods over Kupp.

Football is Life

2nd Round, Calvin Ridley - BUST: 5 catches, 51 yards

Outlook: Life without Julio is tougher, but it's one bad game

Not having Julio is definitely going to make Ridley work harder, as he will see less single coverage than he's ever seen before. However, he's shown that he can still put up numbers when he's the main receiving option in all the games Julio has missed over the past few years. This was a terrible game from the Falcons as whole so I expect Ridley to brush this one off and still finish as a WR1 by the end of the season.

Fe-Brees

7th Round, Aaron Rodgers - BUST: 133 yards, 2 INT

Outlook: Rodgers won't finish as a top 12 QB... unless he's traded

This one might be better categorized as a conspiracy theory than analysis but I think Rodgers is trying to get himself traded away from the Packers. He knows he doesn't have many years left in the league so I cannot see himself squandering a game this badly unless he had a different motive in mind. I really believe he's trying to lower his value so that he will be attainable by a potential contender who just needs a QB (Indy, Washington, NYG, Las Vegas, Miami, Tennessee and even Pittsburgh should be picking up the phone right now). Last note, Jon, please change your team name. He's not on your team anymore. In fact, he's not even in the league anymore.

Jacked Up!

1st Round, Aaron Jones - BUST: 5 carries, 9 yards, 2 catches, 13 yards

Outlook: Hinges on what happens with the other Aaron but the outlook is poor

Continuing the theory up above, if Rodgers goes, there's no way this Aaron is able to produce at a first round level. Aaron leaving would be basically a whole teardown of the Packers meaning Jones will face stacked boxes and negative game scripts. The fact that Dillon also looked just as good as him in the minimal touches they both got doesn't help his cause. Even if Rodgers stays and continues this self-destruction of value, it won't be good for Jones.

David Y Team

3rd Round, Mike Evans - BUST: 3 catches, 24 yards

Outlook: Somehow Evans went from WR1 to WR3 on his own team in 3 years

Evans used to be the only focal point of this Bucs offense but now, he's arguably the WR3. Not only that, he still has to compete with Gronk for red zone looks if Tom isn't sneaking them in himself. With AB stealing the spotlight and Godwin being a younger, spryer target for Brady, I foresee a very difficult year for Evans, maybe not even being startable (a top 36 WR).

Justice Beaver

1st Round, Saquon Barkley - BUST: 10 carries, 26 yards, 1 catch, 1 yard

Outlook: He won't live up to his 1st round billing, but he'll finish as a top-24 RB

As he continues to increase his workload and get more involved in the pass game (he's a capable receiver), he'll develop a more solid floor and be closer to the player we saw a couple years ago. But he'll never quite get to the expectations people have of him due to the fact that Daniel Jones shouldn't be a starter in the NFL. Now if the Giants trade for Rodgers...

Najee in your bahjee

3rd Round, D'Andre Swift - BOOM: 11 carries, 39 yards, 8 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD

Outlook: His rushing stats won't be pretty but thankfully Goff loves to check down

The Lions are going to lose. A lot. Combine that with the fact that Goff is under center and that teams will be blitzing and going all out on the pass rush and all I see is a lot of underneath passes for Swift to do some damage. He's a tantalizing prospect that could be an RB1 in the right situation but he should still finish in the top 24 thanks to his role as Goff's security blanket.

Good luck to all!