Week 13 - MOTW

With only 2 weeks to go, there's a huge matchup this week with 2 teams playing for very different prizes.

MOTW

1. Fe-Brees (Jon) vs. 7. Dak 고기 (Rich)

Jon has vaulted to the top of the standings, winning 5 of his last 6 after starting out .500. But his only lead on the 4 other 8-4 teams is his point differential. If he can pull off a victory this week, he'll all but secure a crucial bye, bringing him one step closer to the prize. Rich isn't fighting for a bye. He's just fighting to get in. He most likely needs to win both of his matchups, hope for some losses to the teams above him, and score enough to usurp one of the other teams that will be 8-6.

Key Players on Bye: 

Jon - Aaron Rodgers (QB1), Jarvis Landry (WR4)

Rich - D.J. Moore (WR2), AJ Dillon (RB2/3)

Key Injuries: 

Jon - None

Rich - Darren Waller (TE1), Chase Edmonds (RB2)

QB: Jon ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Rich

I like Dak better in a vacuum but he plays a stingier New Orleans defense while Stafford is looking to rebound after 3 losses against a beatable Jaguars secondary. Stafford has been the cause of some of those losses, throwing pick sixes over and over again, but I think this is going to be his rebound game. If Rodgers had played, Jon may have been able to steal the green dot.

WR: Jon ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Rich

Both teams miss a WR this week but clearly one is more important than the other. Moore is a clear starter while Landry is most likely only a bye week filler. Jon has 3 end zone threats who all play against beatable secondaries and games that could end up being high scoring. Justin Jefferson should be able to hang but Boyd and Samuel are dart throws. Even at their best, they're most likely not able to match the production of any of Jon's receivers.

RB: Jon ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Rich

JT has been on an absolute tear until last week (why Frank Reich wouldn't use him until the 4th quarter when they had a big lead, I will never understand #firefrankreich). This week, he gets one of the softest defenses in the NFL where the game script should read "FEED JT." Expect an explosion. Montgomery has regained his workhorse role after injury but gets a tough matchup with little to no talent from under center, meaning stacked boxes and capped ceilings. Eli Mitchell was sick last week but I can't trust Shanahan to continue to feed one back. Maybe he explodes for 30 this week but I could also see him score under 10 points. Zeke has been losing touches to Pollard and the matchup this week doesn't help. 

TE/K/DST: Jon ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Rich

Not sure who Jon is going to take on defense yet but whoever he takes and KC should be a wash. I think Joseph and Gay both get many tries as their offenses should move the ball easily in domed conditions. Gronk was a target monster last week but I don't trust any one receiver in the TB offense. I'd guess that last week was higher than average and Goedert's performance last week suffered due to Hurts playing one of his worst games of the season. I think this week, they both regress to the mean and end up cancelling each other out.

Winner: Jon

Missing players due to byes and injuries clearly affects Rich's team more than it does Jon's. Rich's desperation to win this week just isn't enough as his team lacks the talent to face off against the current league leader. Looks like the playoff standings may be set after this week.

Good luck to all!