I was actually going to write this post last week but that Monday night game was so intense, it warranted its own article.
The only problem now is, there's basically only 7 teams that are fighting for the 6 playoff spots. While not completely eliminated, anyone who is 4-7 basically needs to win out, make up big point differentials, and pray for teams to lose. 3-8 teams need to wait until next year.
But for the 7 teams left, knowing one of them will be going home is rough, as all 7 have solid teams. So which team is going to be the odd team out? Which 2 teams will secure the bye? And who is fading and gaining steam at just the right time? Let's take these questions one at a time.
Odd Team Out: Come At The King Best Not Miss
I hate writing about my own team but I couldn't avoid it here. The rest of the season schedule for Simon is the worst of any team. He plays Chris (1st), Mike (6th but 2nd most PF), and David Y (4th but 3rd most PF). He probably has the biggest chance of losing out which doesn't bode well for his chances. Had he won one of his two nailbiters (GG to Dan and Jung), he would have been much more comfortable and probably would have been able to absorb a 3 game losing streak going into the playoffs. But now only a game ahead of Mike and Rich, a back to back seems unlikely. I guess everybody was truly ready to come at the king.
Top 2 Teams: Najee in your bahjee 🍆 (currently 2nd) and Fe-Brees (currently 3rd)
Both of these teams have extremely easy schedules to close out the year. Chris, currently in 1st, has been fading a bit as he faces Simon, Mike, and Jung to end the season. Outside of that matchup with Chris, Jung gets Cho (8th) and Eric (11th). Jon has an even easier path as he faces Dan (9th), Eric (11th), and Rich (7th). But something else makes me think Jon is going to be sneak into the top 2
Hottest Team: Fe-Brees
I don't know if he's the hottest team or if he's just got the hottest player but this season, that might be enough. We've seen RBs carry teams to championships in years past (Shaun Alexander, LT, Derrick Henry) and this year looks like one of those years. Now granted, one RB can't do everything but it's not like Jon's team is devoid of talent outside of JT. Montgomery is a borderline RB1 with the volume and schedule he has and while his WRs are a bit more boom or bust, he can rely on Rodgers and Stafford to rain fire from the QB position. Nobody is going to want to play this team in the playoffs
Honorable Mention: BEST TEAM
Mike's team has been hit with some injuries and unforeseen poor performances .But now that everyone is back and clicking, take a look at this lineup. Mahomes is looking like Mahomes again and that means he's a threat to drop 50 each week. His floor is definitely lower but that ceiling is still there. With Russ back, Lockett becomes dangerous again. Thielen is still the WR 1A or 1B on a Minny team that somehow still has a chance in the NFC. Waddle and Cooks can be deployed based on their matchups and they're both the WR1 on their respective teams. CMC is back and healthy and the time off may actually help him keep his legs through the fantasy postseason. Cincy didn't know how to use Mixon in the first 5 or 6 games but the last 3 games have seen him truly be a borderling RB1/2. Finish off the starting lineup with a rejuvenated Ertz on one of the most dangerous offenses in the league. Mike has a good chance at keeping the Mahomes streak alive (in case you didn't know, every team that has drafted Mahomes since he became the full time starter has won the league).
Fading Team: #winnable
Chris's team has looked unstoppable a lot of weeks. That's why he's in first place. But his team relies a bit too much on explosiveness and some of that looks to be fading for some of his key players. Kupp has still been great but he's regressed a bit on his TD production, which changes his scores from the high 20s to the high teens. Brady is starting to focus more on winning rather than gaudy stats so his 35+ outbursts are turning into consistent 20-something performances instead. Hopkins and CeeDee are both playing in offenses that like to spread the ball around so while they remain elite talents, the range of their production varies wildly. Now, none of this is to say that Chris's team sucks. But when your last 3 performances only netted you 89, 86, and 95 points, I'd say that that's not a team that anyone is afraid of in the playoffs.
Honorable Mention: Najee in your bahjee 🍆
What? Didn't you just say this team was going to be a top 2 seed? And he's won 5 in a row. Yes, I understand but let's take a deeper look at that win streak. 3 of those wins came against non-playoff teams and he only averaged 102.86 points per matchup, hardly a worldbeating score. While Najee and Davante are locks to be great and Chase has been a pleasant surprise. the talent drops off quickly. Russ hasn't been able to regain his form since his injury and Carr has dealt with too much drama to focus on being a great QB. His 3rd WR spot is a little shaky and Swift has been unbelievable but it's still hard to trust anybody on the Lions in the playoffs, even if it's just fantasy playoffs. I don't think Jung's team is an easy out but compared to some of the others in the hunt, I don't think his is as imposing.
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone and good luck to all!
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