We're midway though the season and with 6 regular season games to go, everyone is still in it. Yes, if you're 2-6 you probably need, at a minimum, to go 5-1, but I'd say that until you get that 8th loss, you're not 100% out. No team has remained undefeated to this point and 6 teams still have a shot at fighting for the bye. Even with all this drama, there wasn't a clear an obvious MOTW for the week so what I've decided to do is go back on my post-week 1 predictions and see how I did. I've taken the week 1 information and taken a snippet of my analysis and we'll judge how close I was to actuality on a scale of 1 (WTF were you thinking) to 5 (I'm a clairvoyant).
BEST TEAM
5th Round, Adam Thielen - BOOM: 9 catches, 92 yards, 2 TDs
Outlook: Steal that'll continue to pay dividends
...getting 10+ targets a game and recording over 100 receptions on the year...
Rating: 4
The WR16 by total and WR13 by average, Thielen has been the consistent force he's been in previous years. He's got 43 catches and 471 yards through 7 games (already had bye), which puts him well on pace to break 100 catches. He's not quite at 10+ targets but I don't think Mike's complaining about 8.4 a game.
Scary Terry McScorin
3rd Round, Terry McLaurin - BUST: 4 catches, 62 yards
Outlook: Will not perform at the pre-season expectation of WR1/2
...I don't think McLaurin will really be able to live up to his pre-season expectations as a top 15 WR...
Rating: 5
Granted I cheated a little bit on this one since I got to see Fitzpatrick go down in game 1, but Terry has been WR17 on total and WR21 by average so far this year. While this isn't terrible production, Terry was supposed to be top 15, if not top 12 this year, hence his draft position in the third round. While he's not a long way off (1.65 ppg away from WR15), a 3rd rounder was steep price to pay for a middling WR2.
Trey Lance Refrigeration
1st Round, Derrick Henry - BUST: 17 carries, 58 yards, 3 catches, 19 yards
Outlook: May not be as dominant as past years but this was just a bad game
...He won't put up 2k rushing yards, but he will still be a solid RB1...
Rating: 3
So I have to give myself credit in knowing that Henry wasn't going to struggle this season. However, Henry was on pace to easily break 2k yards and not just be a solid RB1 but be THE RB1. He outpaces every RB by a huge margin in total or average. The sad news is that due to his injury, his fantasy season may be over, tanking Eric's season.
richard's cowboys
1st Round, Ezekiel Elliott - BUST: 11 carries, 33 yards, 2 catches, 6 yards
Outlook: Still a mid-RB1 but inability to get involved in passing game still a concern
...with the defense needing to worry about 3 solid receiving options, the lanes will open up...
Rating: 5
The RB10 by total and RB7 by average (taking out CMC and Jordan Howard due to their small sample size), Zeke has been a solid first round pick, scoring below 10 just once since that first week (and even that was 9.3 points). However, the pass game concerns are still lingering, averaging less than 3 catches and 20 yards per game, capping his ceiling.
#ridethewave
4th Round, Cooper Kupp - BOOM: 7 catches, 108 yards, 1 TD
Outlook: Probably his best game of the year
...for the rest of the season, I'll take Woods over Kupp...
Rating: -1?
How wrong was I on this one? Literally the WR1 by total or average. 6 games over 20 points, only 1 single digit game, and that first game has been his 6th game so far this season (out of 8 games). Woods hasn't been bad either in a revitalized Rams offense, but Kupp is 10 ppg clear of running mate. Kupp is providing such good value, he might carry Chris to his first ship (much to the chagrin of Jon and David K).
Football is Life
2nd Round, Calvin Ridley - BUST: 5 catches, 51 yards
Outlook: Life without Julio is tougher, but it's one bad game
...I expect Ridley to brush this one off and still finish as a WR1 by the end of the season...
Rating: 1
WR1 feels like a long way off at this point. We thought all of the targets vacated by Julio would be absorbed by Ridley and Pitts, with the majority going to Calvin. But CPatt's emergence and the Falcons generally sucking has really hampered his ability to produce. He hasn't had a week over 16 points and due to personal matters, he's already missed 2 games, with the potential to miss more. The WR54 by total and WR31 by average, Ridley looks to be one of the bigger busts of the year.
Fe-Brees
7th Round, Aaron Rodgers - BUST: 133 yards, 2 INT
Outlook: Rodgers won't finish as a top 12 QB... unless he's traded
...I really believe he's trying to lower his value so that he will be attainable by a potential contender...
Rating: 2
So it turns out Rodgers wasn't part of a conspiracy... he just had a really bad game... but now, with all this COVID drama, maybe he actually IS part of a conspiracy, just a different one... The crazy thing is, by average, he's actually not a top 12 QB (sitting at QB13 at the moment). By total he's QB8 but missing games due to COVID is sure to drag that down. In the end, my prediction may be right after all.
Jacked Up!
1st Round, Aaron Jones - BUST: 5 carries, 9 yards, 2 catches, 13 yards
Outlook: Hinges on what happens with the other Aaron but the outlook is poor
...Jones will face stacked boxes and negative game scripts...
Rating: 1
So this was a derivative of the conspiracy above so with that one blowing up in my face, this has almost no chance of being correct. Jones has been the RB4 by total and RB10 by average. I will say that his biggest issue has been consistency. He has 3 games below 10 points, making him hard to trust as a true RB1 every week. But even with those risks, he's still easily a top 16 RB.
David Y Team
3rd Round, Mike Evans - BUST: 3 catches, 24 yards
Outlook: Somehow Evans went from WR1 to WR3 on his own team in 3 years
...I foresee a very difficult year for Evans, maybe not even being startable (a top 36 WR)...
Rating: 1
Tom Brady continues to torment me by making my prediction flop once more. Surprisingly, AB, Godwin, and Evans have all been top 25 WRs thanks to the free-flowing and efficient TB offense. The hard part may be picking which receivers are going to pop in which weeks, but all 3 are not just startable but cornerstones to the teams that own them. As the WR11 by average and WR6 by total, Evans is still a superb fantasy piece.
Justice Beaver
1st Round, Saquon Barkley - BUST: 10 carries, 26 yards, 1 catch, 1 yard
Outlook: He won't live up to his 1st round billing, but he'll finish as a top-24 RB
...he'll develop a more solid floor [...] but he'll never quite get to the expectations people have of him...
Rating: 3
This one is tough to rate. In the games he's played and finished, he's improved every week as NY ramped him up from his injuries, peaking at 27 points in week 4. But the injury bug hit him again and now we're uncertain of when he will return. I will say that when he's healthy, he actually may be able to finish as an RB1 and if he's able to return this or next week, it might be what propels Dan from last place into the playoffs (or more realistically, to the consolation bracket win).
Najee in your bahjee
3rd Round, D'Andre Swift - BOOM: 11 carries, 39 yards, 8 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD
Outlook: His rushing stats won't be pretty but thankfully Goff loves to check down
...could be an RB1 in the right situation but he should still finish in the top 24...
Rating: 4
I may not have been bullish enough on Swift after his solid first game. The RB12 by average and RB8 by total, Swift has been a solid back-end RB1 thanks to his ability to catch the ball and the Lions always playing from behind (literally. They're 0-8). While his rushing numbers don't look great, (11 attempts and 36 yards), his receiving numbers have carried his fantasy value (RB league leading 6 catches and 52 yards a game). Swift's numbers are basically a WR36 and a split backfield RB36 combined; individually, those numbers look atrocious but combined, they create a building block for a playoff team.
Good luck to all!
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