Welcome back to the league! This is our 4th straight year with the full cast of characters returning, which always increases the possibilities of rivalries due to the familiarity. Much to David Kim's dismay, I am still commissioner of this league and I want to continue something that I started last year where we focus on the positive life events of the past year:
- Mike welcomed a baby girl into the world
- Rich got married
- David Y got married... again (for those that are confused, he just had his ceremony this year, he isn't moving on to a second wife)
- I had my second son
If there's anybody I missed, I do apologize but it also probably means we haven't talked in a while. Don't be a stranger and reach out any time!
Now as we move on to the football side of things, I know some of you are already annoyed that I didn't post a draft analysis. But with only 2 days between the draft and the start of the season, as well as being extremely busy last week, I didn't get a chance. So what we'll do this week is combine a bit of draft analysis with week 1 outputs to see whether or team should be nervous about a poor start or if they need to temper expectations after a hot one. Also, just to give a preview for week 3, since we probably won't really have enough data to start doing MOTWs quite yet, I'll show you an updated version of the FPI to see which teams are actually consistently performing at a high level.
BEST TEAM
5th Round, Adam Thielen - BOOM: 9 catches, 92 yards, 2 TDs
Outlook: Steal that'll continue to pay dividends
Everyone was hyping up Jefferson this offseason but they seem to have forgotten that Thielen is Cousins's first love. While he won't score 2 TDs every week, in a half PPR league, he should make up his worth by getting 10+ targets a game and recording over 100 receptions on the year.
Scary Terry McScorin
3rd Round, Terry McLaurin - BUST: 4 catches, 62 yards
Outlook: Will not perform at the pre-season expectation of WR1/2
With Fitzmagic leaving due to injury, all the Football Team could muster on offense was shallow routes and screens. McLaurin is a great receiver that should still be startable but with Taylor Heinicke under center, I don't think McLaurin will really be able to live up to his pre-season expectations as a top 15 WR.
Trey Lance Refrigeration
1st Round, Derrick Henry - BUST: 17 carries, 58 yards, 3 catches, 19 yards
Outlook: May not be as dominant as past years but this was just a bad game
It's easy to think that Henry may have too many miles as an RB1 and that he is bound to slow down. However, this one week aberration where the entire Titans team played like garbage is more of a blip than the start of a trend. He won't put up 2k rushing yards, but he will still be a solid RB1 thanks to the volume and run-first philosophy of the team.
richard's cowboys
1st Round, Ezekiel Elliott - BUST: 11 carries, 33 yards, 2 catches, 6 yards
Outlook: Still a mid-RB1 but inability to get involved in passing game still a concern
Zeke had to play one of the toughest defenses in the league so I'm not worried yet. They'll continue to be involved in so many shootouts and with the defense needing to worry about 3 solid receiving options, the lanes will open up. However, in a game that was so pass heavy, there is concern that he only saw 2 targets. We'll see if he can continue to expand his game to be more of a receiving threat.
#ridethewave
4th Round, Cooper Kupp - BOOM: 7 catches, 108 yards, 1 TD
Outlook: Probably his best game of the year
While the Stafford upgrade is expected to help everyone on the Rams, I would actually say that Goff was a better fit for Kupp's skills than Stafford. Kupp is a slot man, running the underneath routes and picking up short yardage. Stafford is better known for taking shots downfield and winning on vertical routes. Woods was overshadowed by Kupp in this one but for the rest of the season, I'll take Woods over Kupp.
Football is Life
2nd Round, Calvin Ridley - BUST: 5 catches, 51 yards
Outlook: Life without Julio is tougher, but it's one bad game
Not having Julio is definitely going to make Ridley work harder, as he will see less single coverage than he's ever seen before. However, he's shown that he can still put up numbers when he's the main receiving option in all the games Julio has missed over the past few years. This was a terrible game from the Falcons as whole so I expect Ridley to brush this one off and still finish as a WR1 by the end of the season.
Fe-Brees
7th Round, Aaron Rodgers - BUST: 133 yards, 2 INT
Outlook: Rodgers won't finish as a top 12 QB... unless he's traded
This one might be better categorized as a conspiracy theory than analysis but I think Rodgers is trying to get himself traded away from the Packers. He knows he doesn't have many years left in the league so I cannot see himself squandering a game this badly unless he had a different motive in mind. I really believe he's trying to lower his value so that he will be attainable by a potential contender who just needs a QB (Indy, Washington, NYG, Las Vegas, Miami, Tennessee and even Pittsburgh should be picking up the phone right now). Last note, Jon, please change your team name. He's not on your team anymore. In fact, he's not even in the league anymore.
Jacked Up!
1st Round, Aaron Jones - BUST: 5 carries, 9 yards, 2 catches, 13 yards
Outlook: Hinges on what happens with the other Aaron but the outlook is poor
Continuing the theory up above, if Rodgers goes, there's no way this Aaron is able to produce at a first round level. Aaron leaving would be basically a whole teardown of the Packers meaning Jones will face stacked boxes and negative game scripts. The fact that Dillon also looked just as good as him in the minimal touches they both got doesn't help his cause. Even if Rodgers stays and continues this self-destruction of value, it won't be good for Jones.
David Y Team
3rd Round, Mike Evans - BUST: 3 catches, 24 yards
Outlook: Somehow Evans went from WR1 to WR3 on his own team in 3 years
Evans used to be the only focal point of this Bucs offense but now, he's arguably the WR3. Not only that, he still has to compete with Gronk for red zone looks if Tom isn't sneaking them in himself. With AB stealing the spotlight and Godwin being a younger, spryer target for Brady, I foresee a very difficult year for Evans, maybe not even being startable (a top 36 WR).
Justice Beaver
1st Round, Saquon Barkley - BUST: 10 carries, 26 yards, 1 catch, 1 yard
Outlook: He won't live up to his 1st round billing, but he'll finish as a top-24 RB
As he continues to increase his workload and get more involved in the pass game (he's a capable receiver), he'll develop a more solid floor and be closer to the player we saw a couple years ago. But he'll never quite get to the expectations people have of him due to the fact that Daniel Jones shouldn't be a starter in the NFL. Now if the Giants trade for Rodgers...
Najee in your bahjee
3rd Round, D'Andre Swift - BOOM: 11 carries, 39 yards, 8 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD
Outlook: His rushing stats won't be pretty but thankfully Goff loves to check down
The Lions are going to lose. A lot. Combine that with the fact that Goff is under center and that teams will be blitzing and going all out on the pass rush and all I see is a lot of underneath passes for Swift to do some damage. He's a tantalizing prospect that could be an RB1 in the right situation but he should still finish in the top 24 thanks to his role as Goff's security blanket.
Good luck to all!
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