Week 16 - Championship

We all made it alive to the final week of one of the weirdest seasons ever. A white player was the #1 RB, Jameis Winston might lead the league in yards, TDs, AND INTs, and a defense was the MVP through the first 8 weeks of the season. But only 2 players remain alive in fantasy as they fight it out for the final prize. It only makes sense that in the weirdest season, the playoffs went chalk.

Last week was a doozy with Cho surviving by a point (a Jack Doyle fourth quarter reception to be exact) and Dan surviving by less than .1 points (David is kicking himself for not playing Lockett). Let's see if the final week can bring as much drama.

MOTY
1. BOBODDY vs. 2. Jacked Up!
Dan is finally one win away from getting the prize he so covets. Always a solid fantasy player, Dan always seems to stumble one game shy of eternal glory. Can he make this weird season the one where he breaks through the glass ceiling to join the champions of years past? Meanwhile, Cho looks to complete his three-peat, effectively building his savings account off the backs of everyone in the league. Who will take the final prize home?

Studs: Ingram vs. Julio
Ingram gets a second shot at a Cleveland team that held him to just 7.7 point the last time they faced off. Since then, Baltimore has become a Super Bowl favorite while Cleveland is waiting for 2020. No Myles + clinching the bye + revenge game is enough for Ingram to break out for a huge game. Julio is always a stud but he should be able to do serious damage against a Jaguars defense that no longer has Jalen Ramsey. No sleight towards Bouye but this secondary just hasn't been the same since they traded him away. Expect a ton of Julio stat padding as all he has to play for is increasing his career totals.

Duds: Golladay vs. Bell
Golladay has been a revelation this year but he gets a tough matchup this week against a Denver defense that's finally finding its groove under Vic Fangio. Expect him to get the majority of attention resulting in a better day for Marvin Jones. Bell gets a revenge match against Pittsburgh but unfortunately, his offensive line won't let him get the vengeance he craves. Pitt's defense has looked great the past couple of weeks since the addition of Fitzpatrick and they're still fighting for their playoff spot. Expect them to focus on the primary source of offense for the Jets.

X-Factors: Perriman vs. McLaurin
Both these guys are making debuts for their teams. Perriman just got picked up this week and has been a stud since Evans went down. And now with Godwin nursing an injury, we might see Perriman get close to 15 targets this week against a beatable secondary. McLaurin isn't new to Cho's team but he's been unplayable for a while until last week. As Haskins has improved for the Redskins, McLaurin's stock has been able to recover from the free-fall it took in week 7. Can he exploit a underwhelming Giants secondary to come through in the clutch for Cho?

Winner: Dan
Dan's only weakness all season has been his WR depth and he may just have plugged it with the best stopper available in the market. Perriman is a legit WR1/2 this week and could be exactly what Dan needs to finally take home the trophy. I'd say Dan has more talent but Cho has more favorable matchups. It'll be close but Dan finally joins the hall of champions.

Good luck to all!

Don't forget to fill out the survey!

Simon Kim

Week 15 - Semifinals

We're finally down to our final four after the wild card round went chalk and we have 3 familiar faces and an upstart threatening to upset the balance of the league. Who is going to come out of this for chance at the 4 figure prize?

(On another note, the consolation bracket started off with 2 upsets of the Kim brothers by a Kim and another Kim. The semifinals will be Kim vs. Kim and Kim vs. Lee (but really Kim))

MOTW 1
1. BOBODDY vs. 4. David Y Team
At first glance, this looks like a runaway victory for Dan. But with Pat's hand concerns and Dallas's urgency to make the playoffs, this could be much closer than we think. David is hoping that this deep playoff run ends with his first ever ring. But Dan's thinking "wait your turn and pay your dues" as his championship is long overdue. Who takes the step towards the final?

Studs: CMC vs. Zeke
The two first round running backs have been critical for their respective teams all season. While neither have a plus matchup and could be playing from behind depending on the game flow, they're both pass catching options that won't be phased out by more passing plays. I see the two RB1s pretty much cancelling each other out.

Duds: Ingram vs. Laird
Now these are clearly 2 different levels of RB2s but Ingram faces a surprisingly tough Jets run defense on a short week. Not only will the Jets slow him down but I can see Harbaugh limiting his snaps to preserve him for the real life playoff run that is to come. On the other side, Laird is just not a good running back. Even worse, he plays for the Dolphins, meaning he has to play from behind in most games. 

X-Factors: Shepard and Landry vs. Slayton and Samuel
While both stud WRs on each team should get theirs, the WR2 and 3 positions provide some intrigue. Landry gets a great matchup against a terrible Cardinals secondary. With the Browns still fighting for the playoffs, he could produce one of his best games of the year. David has Samuel, who has scored 10+ points in the last 5 weeks and 6 of the past 7. He's clearly earned Jimmy and Kyle's trust and gets a Falcons secondary that is only out-worsed by the Eagles and Cardinals (what's with all the bird teams being terrible at guarding the pass?). Shepard and Slayton present the most interesting matchup as they should both be successful against the Dolphins absent pass defense (are Dolphins birds?). The big question will be who gets more targets? Eli seems to like Slayton more but Jones could be back for this game.

Winner: Dan
It's still hard to bet against Mahomes and the superiority of this backfield compared to David's. Additionally, Ertz > Njoku and even special teams leans slightly in Dan's direction. David's coup will have to wait one more season.

MOTW 2
2. Jacked Up! vs. 3. Jacked Down!
Cho is looking to 3-peat for the first time in league history but his opponent owns 3 trophies of his own. Both teams do have some flaws but the talent on their team stacks up well against each other. Can Eric stop Cho from joining him in the pantheon of greatest fantasy managers?

Studs: Jones vs. Thomas
Who is the best WR in the league? Maybe a question we'll never be able to answer but two of the best face off and should have monster games. Julio gets a tough matchup against the 49ers but with Ridley dealing with injuries and the Falcons playing from behind, expect Julio to get 10+ targets. Michael Thomas should feast on an Indy D that's better at stopping the run than the pass and have been giving up huge point totals in the past few weeks.

Duds: Bell vs. Ekeler
Baltimore's defense has been overshadowed by the second coming of Vick but they have been great all season. They don't quite match up to the Lewis, Reed, Suggs, defenses of the past but they don't have glaring weak spots. Bell will have a tough time finding holes and gaps. And even if he does, can his QB find him? Ekeler has been a godsend for Eric's team as Lindsay has regressed but he gets a tough matchup this week against the Vikings defense that's reverting back to 2017, when they were arguably the best defense in the league.

X-Factors: Sanders vs. Waller 
Sanders has been dealing with a nagging rib injury for the past few weeks but looked great in the game against New Orleans. He won't be throwing a TD in every game but we'll see if he can find success against a soft Falcons secondary. Waller has been quiet since the hype train in week 1 but this seems like the perfect game for him to reintroduce himself to the league. A close game against an inconsistent defense while still fighting for a playoff spot is the perfect formula for a monster game.

Winner: Eric
Cho has some rough matchups this week and Derrick Henry and Thielen's statuses are still up in the air. The good news is, he might be able to get one more vintage performance from New England this week to make up the talent gap at other positions.

Good luck to all!

Simon

Week 14 - Playoff Predictions

Sorry I'm late posting this one. Got swamped with work and didn't get to post before my flight home. Fell asleep super early and so here we are. Also, I can't believe all the Kims (including honorary Jon "Lee" Kim) missed the playoffs.

Instead of doing in-depth matchups for this week (especially since David Y and Chris's matchup has already begun) I'll do a few quick playoff predictions.

Winner - Dan Park
He finally gets the monkey off his back and captures his first title. His team has never scored under 85 points and now that Mahomes is back, Browns have an easy schedule, Golladay is looking like a true WR1, and Ertz has been picking up his production (minus the stinker last week in Miami), it will be hard to derail this team. He's got a few other wild cards in the mix: Kareem Hunt could be useful down the stretch, Sterling is finally back healthy, and Rudolph has been a monster in the past 3 weeks (10+ per game). It'll take a heroic effort to derail Dan's season.

Runner Up - Eric
Mr. Opposite ended with the 2nd highest score of the year and he'll make the finals again thanks to a solid team at every position. His biggest issue is at QB where he'll need to find the right streamer every week but he's got 3 WRs that are arguably top 15 options on every given week, Cook, assuming he is healthy, has never scored under 10 points, and he's got some interesting RB2 options, all with the possibility of posting RB1 numbers on a given week.

Biggest Disappointment - Cho
Cho rode the New England D for the first 7 weeks while they feasted on a soft schedule but his end of season run was disappointing to say the least. He went 3-3, averaging 84 points a game. Luckily, he hung on to his first round bye but a slew of untimely injuries may derail his quest at a 3-peat. New England does get Cincinnati and Buffalo to end the fantasy season so if they can conjure up some 25+ point magic again, maybe Cho makes me look like a fool.

Dark Horse - David Y
David's success is purely dependent on the Cowboys as he has their 3 best skill position players. The Cowboys will be fighting for their playoff lives meaning we should expect heavy doses of Amari and Zeke in the coming weeks. The Rams and Eagles are nothing close to the shutdown defenses they were of the past 2 years so they should both be able to put up significant points. His biggest question is at RB2 where he's hoping for a lottery ticket to hit, but the rest of his roster is solid enough to win the league.

For all people in the consolation bracket, don't give up! The Kim Bowl will determine the winner of the $25 gift card.

Good luck to all!

Simon

Week 13 - What Went Wrong?

As of now, only 4 teams are completely out of the playoff picture: Paul Kim, Rich Kim, David Kim, and Simon Kim (a curse on Kims? Only Jung can break that curse this year. If Jung and Jon don't make playoffs, it would be ridiculous because Jon is from the Kim clan as well).

Let's go back and see where things went wrong for these teams, starting with the most obvious:

12. Simon Kim
What happened?: A risk, a rape, and a ridiculous regular season schedule
Simon started off the draft with a questionable move: Kamara over McCaffrey? Kamara has never reached the volumes CMC has and while he's been a very fun runner to watch, there always seemed to be a ceiling on his potential. But he really went all in on the risky plays when he drafted AB and Gurley in the next two rounds. If all things broke right, he had 3 first rounders on his roster. Well, things didn't come close to breaking right. Brown got accused of rape. Gurley found out he's on a team with the worst QB not named Trubisky. Josh Gordon gets caught up in a horrific on-field injury and the hopes of a comeback season go down the drain. But all of this couldn't prepare him for the schedule he was about to face. Every team that faced him seem to have their best week against him. Let's take a look:
Dan: 1st and 2nd best scoring weeks (143.62, 134.1)
Jung: 4th (103.96)
David Y: 2nd (128.94)
Jon: 4th (123)
Biggie: 2nd (129.16)
Cho: 1st (125.6)
Mike: 2nd (109.32)
Eric: 6th (124.78) [thanks for treating me like all other teams]
David K: 2nd (104.44)
Chris: 3rd (121.42)
Paul: 4th (93.74)
It's like everyone's team prepped extra hard just to play Simon.

11. David K
What happened?: Wasted 1st rounder + 3 backs flirting with greatness
David started with one of the most questionable moves on draft day: making Davante the first receiver off the board. That's the easy decision to criticize. The issues he had at running back weren't really his fault (although, I guess he could have consolidated the potential of 2 of them into 1 solid back). Josh Jacobs looked great in week 1 but his streakiness made him hard to trust on a week to week basis. Some weeks he looked like a top 5 back; others he looked like he shouldn't even be started. But sadly, this was David's best option in the backfield. Mixon struggled all season on a team that still hasn't won a game and Mack's flakiness can be attributed to nagging injuries and stacked boxes due to the absence of Luck. All 3 of the backs were rated in the top 24 coming in to the season but none of them materialized into a true RB1.

10. Biggie
What happened?: Steelers, Browns, and Rams offenses implode
Take a look at Biggie's first 8 picks:

1.	(8)	James Conner (Pit - RB)
2.	(17)	JuJu Smith-Schuster (Pit - WR)
3.	(32)	Aaron Jones (GB - RB)
4.	(41)	Brandin Cooks (LAR - WR)
5.	(56)	Cooper Kupp (LAR - WR)
6.	(65)	Baker Mayfield (Cle - QB)
7.	(80)	Will Fuller V (Hou - WR)
8.	(89)	David Njoku (Cle - TE)

6 of his top 8 were players on the 3 teams mentioned above. Unfortunately for him:
1) Roethlisberger gets hurt for the season, tanking the entire Steelers offense. On top of that, Conner deals with injuries all season
2) Goff showed us that last year's Super Bowl was more indicative of his talents and that the regular season was mostly due to a solid o-line and superhuman Gurley. Goff looks like he did his rookie year and everyone in LA is reading the details of his $134 million dollar contract
3) Cleveland could never live up to the hype they had during the offseason but Baker really struggled against solid competition this season. He showed that he's more Ryan Fitzpatrick than Drew Brees and Njoku still has bricks tied to his hands

9: Paul
What happened? Slow start to season and a few key injuries
Paul is probably one of the unluckier ones this season as he didn't do too much wrong. Sure, he may have reached on Melvin and Michel but overall he didn't have too many bad picks. Cam was seen as a solid value pick that late, he had 2 stud receivers to carry him through most matchups, and Vance was supposed to be the Steelers latest receiving weapon that developed into a fantasy stud. Well, through the first 7 weeks, he was only able to muster 83 points a game. Hill missed a few unplanned weeks, Melvin missed a few planned weeks, and Cam missed the rest of the season a few games in. Now that he's moved past those injuries, his team is actually looking pretty solid. He's averaging over 99 ppg in the last 5 weeks, going 3-2. But that miserable start was too much to overcome, needing a perfect last 6 weeks to make the playoffs.

Don't forget to fill out the survey: https://forms.gle/T3uavxQDzEWH1HZk6

Happy Thanksgiving!

Good luck to all!

Simon

Week 12 - State of the League Survey

It's finally here!

I'll be using the results of this survey to shape the rules and structure for the league for the next 5-10 years. Please only fill it out once! It shouldn't take you longer than 10 minutes to complete the whole thing.

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfz4WAvCqjzIoIpPlxj8CKbBaO35cAdyQ7qObVdCQGoj8c8xQ/viewform?usp=sf_link

Please take some time over the weekend or the holidays to fill it out. Thanks in advance for participating.

And as always, good luck this week!

Simon

Week 11 - MOTW

It's almost playoff time! Just like how the fantasy season has been a weird one, the NFL has been just as fluky. The Raiders might overtake the Chiefs for supremacy in the AFC West, the NFC East division winner may finish at .500, the Browns sucked but could still make the playoffs, and the Dolphins have somehow won 2 games while the Bengals have yet to win one.

The top tier of the league seems to have their places set, especially with Dan already securing his spot in the playoffs. Even David Y looks relatively safe, although, not secured. I'd say there's 5 teams fighting for those last 2 spots. Let's take a look at 2 of them that are in must-win mode in week 11.

Side note: Eric, I legit laughed out loud at your team name. Well played.

MOTW
7. Mud Dogs vs. 9. DK vs. Everybody
Jung has had an up and down season having a 4 game losing streak followed by a 4 game winning streak to put him back at the cusp of making the playoffs. He'll need to keep this win streak going to play for the big cash prize to pay for the hospital bills (Congrats to Jung and Aimee on the birth of ::REDACTED:: [this is just in case Jung and Aimee want to keep ::REDACTED::'s name off the internet on some random blog]). In week 11, he faces David K, who has been on almost the exact same streak as him: 4 losses followed by 3 wins and then one blowout loss last week. Which Kim will emerge victorious?

Studs: J. Brown vs. Jacobs
No matchup in the NFL is as exciting for an offensive player than the Dolphins (maybe the Bengals). John Brown has been a solid addition for Josh Allen but this might be the game where he explodes and establishes himself as a Bill for life. No Minkah means no resistance down the field. Josh Jacobs gets a similar draw as he faces the other best matchup for an offensive player. He's the clear bell cow back in Oakland and they should lead with enough time for him to get 20+ touches.

Duds: Murray vs. whichever QB David picks up
Murray has calmed down after a rocky start to the season and in his last 2, he's surpassed the 25 point barrier. But he faces a rough matchup against an SF defense that wants to avenge a tough Monday night loss to the Seahawks. Murray played well against them at home last time, but it'll be a totally different situation in Levi's. He'll be hard pressed to surpass the 20 point barrier. David loses A-aron in one of the biggest matchups of the year. He'll have to look to the free agent pool to pick the best option but nothing out there is that appealing. Do you take Foles off a bye/injury against a solid Indy defense? Rudolph against a torchable Browns secondary? Is Mayfield actually back on track? Do you hope Dalton throws a ton as they try to come back against the Raiders? We'll find out who he decides to pick for this pivotal matchup but let's say that he most likely will not be carrying David K's scoring load.

X-Factors: Diggs vs. Samuel and Sutton
Diggs had a 3 week stretch where he surpassed 140 yards every game. And then he's gone back to the form he had at the beginning of the season. We haven't heard any complaints from him yet (maybe because Minny is winning) but his performance against the Broncos will be crucial in determining who comes out victorious. On the other side, David is missing his 2 best receivers to the bye so his normal WR3s will need to have big weeks to make up for their missing production. The good news is, they both get plus matchups in games where the ball should be thrown a lot. If they can play like WR1/2s for 1 week, David might be able to pull this one out.

Key Players on Bye:
Jung - None
Mike - Rodgers, Adams, Metcalf - Yikes. Losing your top 2 WRs and your back-in-form QB is a rough proposition when fighting for your playoff life.

Winner: Jung
David is just missing too many pieces to have a real shot at winning this matchup. Downgrading from a top tier QB1 to a bottom tier QB2 is rough, and losing 2 WRs and hoping for the best is not a great way to win a matchup. Jacobs will do his best but this might be the week that David is officially eliminated from the playoffs.

MOTW record: 2-3 (Maybe the curse is real?)

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Week 10 - MOTW

I'm getting sick of writing about my own team. Let's dive right in.

(Also, a quick reminder to make sure that you message me regarding any issues you would like the league's feedback on. The survey is only weeks away!)

MOTW
5. David Y Team vs. 6. BEST TEAM
The two teams with the worst names in the league face off in a huge week 10 game. The winner will be 6-4, pretty much needing 1 win over the next 3 weeks to get into the playoffs. The loser will drop to .500 and need 2 of 3 wins and maybe a lot of points to win the tiebreaker to get in. For David and Mike, the playoffs start this week.

Studs: Cooper vs. Brees
While Minnesota's defense is pretty staunch, they've been susceptible to big plays by the top WRs. Julio and Ridley both scored a TD, Davante got over 100 yards, Alshon got a TD, Marvin Jones dropped 4 scores, and Tyreek put up a 140 and a TD. You'll see that the list has all kinds of receivers: speedsters, end zone threats, quick slant slot receivers. Amari should have a productive day, even if his team doesn't get the win. Brees gets to face the worst pass defense in the league. He tore up Arizona in his first game back and now he gets the Falcons at home to ease him back from his injury. Expect 300+ yards and 3+ TDs with the only thing limiting him being the huge lead the Saints build over the Falcons.

Duds: Zeke vs. D. Freeman
The reasons that allow Cooper to succeed (playing from behind, weak secondary) will be Zeke's downfall. Minnesota is one of the best at stopping the run. D. Freeman had 8 carries for 19 yards, Josh Jacobs had 10/44, and Howard had 13/39. Now they did have a few big performances against them (Aaron Jones and Damien Williams both had 100+ and a score) and none of the duds are as good as Zeke, but I think game flow will dictate a light day for Zeke. Nobody can shut him down completely but I don't think we'll see the Zeke we're used to. Freeman falls into a similar narrative as the Falcons will be playing from behind most likely starting in the 2nd quarter. On top of that, the Saints run defense has been their strength, stopping big names throughout the season. Freeman's best bet will be to get involved in the passing game to boost his production.

X-Factors: Tough Matchups vs. Ridiculously Easy Matchups
Cowboys vs. a rugged Minnesota team that keeps the other offense off the field by running the clock. Lockett against the best defense in football. Jimmy Graham vs. being guarded by Luke Kuechly. David's team is going into the slaughterhouse for what looks to be a down week for every player on his roster. Even Cooper is listed as the stud only because he has the most favorable of the Cowboys skill players. Contrast that with Mike's team. Saquon vs. the reeling Jets. Keenan vs. a burnable Raiders secondary. Hooper vs. a vulnerable middle of the field in a shootout. There's just so many easy matchups for Mike's stars, is this really a fair fight?

Key Players on Bye:
David Y - Watson, Howard, Chark - David could really have used a few of these other guys. DeShaun has been as hot as any QB in the league. Howard is in a split backfield but they've been effective running the ball (and should still be more useful that Darrell Henderson). And Chark could start over Renfrow as he is better at pretty much every aspect of football than Renfrow.
Mike - R. Freeman, Sanu - While he will miss the options to choose Royce and Sanu, I don't know if either would start. The only one I could really see starting is Sanu over Watkins or Boyd but it's not a bonafide upgrade like David would have with his players.

Winner: Mike
The matchups just lean too heavily towards Mike's way. David has an uphill fight to make the playoffs while Mike gets to prove one of my predictions wrong (of him missing the playoffs).

[On another note, Paul is doing a great job in making sure my prediction of him making the playoffs goes down the drain]

MOTW record: 2-2

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Week 9 - MOTW

Another week, another loss. Now that I'm out of the playoff race, I'm really just hoping my opponent scores a ridiculous amount of points so I can do a postmortem on how ridiculously unlucky my team was.

On another note, I am starting to build the survey around what the league wants to see changed for our league. If you have any suggestions on things you want the league to respond to (e.g. PPR, PPFD, auction, keeper, etc.) please e-mail, text, kakao, gchat, whatsapp, or linkedin message me with what you would like to see on the survey. Please do this by 9/16 at the latest so I can be sure that I am able to incorporate it.

That's all the league related stuff for now. On to the important stuff.

MOTW
1. KISS vs. 2. BOBODDY
As always, Eric continues to blow me away with these amazing "opposite" names. I predicted YDDOBOB and he knew I was trying to hard. Keep It Simple Stupid. Best advice he ever gave me. Hurts my feelings every time.

The fantasy gods are giving me another shot at the 1 vs. 2 matchup after I missed Cho vs. Dan. Let's see who gets to pull a full game ahead of the other and gets one step closer to securing the bye.

Studs: Cook vs. Golladay
Cook should feast as he's been doing all season against a Chiefs run defense that couldn't stop Aaron Jones even when they knew he was going to run it to kill the clock. The Packers were able to kill 5 minutes off the clock and win the game. I can't imagine what Dalvin is about to do to them. Golladay gets a Raiders defense that hasn't really been able to stop anybody. Stafford has been quietly having a great season (16/4 ratio, almost 300 yards per game) and Golladay has been one of the key beneficiaries. Expect a 20+ point game.

Duds: Tate vs. Brady
It's not that I think Tate will be bad. It's more that he's probably going to have the worst game of the players on Eric's team. I don't think everyone will be phenomenal but Tate gets a tough matchup on a defense that can focus their attention on him. I believe the Giants will try to run it, shorten the game, and rely on Saquon as much as possible. Brady has been solid up to this point but he's running out of receivers to throw it to. On top of that, he's facing the first decent defense since week 4 when he faced the Bills. In that week, he scored less than 5 points and struggled to find his receivers. With a crafty Baltimore defense led by Earl Thomas and the newly acquired Marcus Peters, expect Michel to handle the rock a ton.

X-Factors: Darnold vs. Ertz
Darnold has had an up and down season... but mostly down. He got mono, posted one of the worst lines this season (-6.66 points against NE), and hurt his thumb. If there's one thing to cure all of these ailments, it's facing the Miami Dolphins. Expect a multi-TD game, with the only thing that's able to slow him down being the huge score differential. Ertz has been one of the most disappointing players, regardless of position. He was supposed to be in the A tier of TEs along with Kelce and Kittle. While those guys have had struggles of their own, Ertz has been arguably the worst one of all. Can he get back on track against a Bears team that is also reeling. Surprisingly, although they defend most parts of the field well, covering TEs across the middle of the field isn't their strength. They can rush the passer, stuff the run, and cover the outside, but the middle might be the place to find the most opportunities. Let's see if Ertz can cash in.

Key Players on Bye:
Eric - Goff, Michael Thomas - Not having one of the best WRs is going to hurt, but luckily Golden Tate has been a startable wide receiver. Goff is more hit or miss but it will be hard to beat Darnold's matchup against the Dolphins.
Dan - AJ Green, Mahomes (INJ) - The 2nd Bengals receiver Dan has traded for won't be playing this week but he has a much higher ceiling to help Dan out. Mahomes' injury usually wouldn't result in too large of a drop off since Dan has Brady, but Brady's matchup is slightly foreboding.

Winner: Eric
I see a slightly down week for CMC and Ingram which will be the difference in this one. Darnold matches Brady step for step, negating the positional advantage for Dan. Eric's superior pass catchers widen the lead while special teams should mostly be a wash.

MOTW record: 2-1

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Week 8 - What a Weird Season

Another week, another loss for Simon. Even worse, the KC defense played a great game on Thursday night to give me hope, only for Matt Ryan to throw it all away on Sunday. It also didn't help that 5 of my guys were out on Sunday.

Anyways, I wanted to take a look back at this fantasy season because it's been one like no other. The first round picks haven't been living up to their hype and the number of undrafted players making huge impacts are ridiculous. One defense is a top 15 fantasy player (INCLUDING QBs!!) and the TE position has been the most unpredictable since before the Tony Gonzalez/Antonio Gates/Jimmy Graham/Rob Gronkowski days. The only position that has been playing out as expected is kicker. Go figure.

Anyways, let's just cherry pick some crazy stats so far this season:
- New England is averaging 21.71 points per game. That's a 2 TDs and 97 rushing yards per game added to Cho's team every week! That's better than having Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, or Zeke. No WR can even match those numbers on a week to week basis. Even for a QB, that would be a 2 TD, 1 INT, 300 yard passing game EVERY WEEK. New England has been the 12th best player in the league, regardless of position. But the biggest kicker is the difference between them and the next best defense in the league. The gap between them and second place SF is 7.54 points. That is bigger than the difference between second place SF and 19th place Seattle. No other position has that big of a gap between first and second place in terms of startability.
QB: Russell Wilson => Lamar Jackson = .28 ~ Lamar Jackson => 3rd place DeShaun Watson
WR: Chris Godwin => Michael Thomas = 3.56 ~ Michael Thomas => 25th place John Brown (Remember that while this gap is bigger than the defense, we play 3 WRs. So John Brown is still a WR2/3)
RB: CMC => Dalvin Cook = 4.31 ~ Dalvin Cook => 6th place Aaron Jones
TE: (Not counting 2 game Henry) Hooper => Waller = 1.03 ~ Waller => 3rd place Mark Andrews
For a 13th round pick, you could do worse than the NE defense. The crazier thing is that they were the 10th defense taken off the board so 9 other teams are ruing the fact that they let this opportunity go.
- TE has been an infinite crapshoot this year. Let's see how the drafted TEs are doing based on the spot they were drafted:
1. Kelce - Drafted 1.11 - 4th - 60.1 total points
2. Kittle - 2.7 - 8th - 45.4
3. Ertz - 3.3 - 7th - 46.4
4. Engram - 6.1 - 6th - 50.4
5. O.J. Howard - 6.6 - 40th - 15.6
6. Henry - 6.8 - 13th - 37.7 (in 3 games!)
7. Cook - 7.2 - 19th - 28.8
8. McDonald - 8.4 - 23rd - 24.7
9. Njoku - 8.5 - 48th - 9.7
10. Ebron - 8.9 - 12th - 38.6
11. Hooper - 9.1 - 1st - 78.6
12. Andrews - 11.6 - 3rd - 60.9
13. Walker - 11.10 - 17th - 28.8
I think you get the point. If you look at these rankings, it looks like there's not rhyme or reason as to how the TEs were ranked before the season. And this chart doesn't even show the true volatility as we only start one TE. Only half of the first 13 TEs that were taken are even startable in our league. The #2 (Waller), 5 (Dissly), 9 (Everett), 10 (Olsen), 11 (Graham), 14 (Fells), and 15 (Witten) TEs weren't even taken in the draft. TE is usually the safest position to draft early because the cream at the top has usually stayed pretty consistent. This year has destroyed any notion of consistency for the position. We'll see what it means going forward.
- Has there ever been a season where this many startable WRs weren't even drafted? Let's see all the undrafted WRs that are in the top 50 based on total points scored this season:
#4, DJ Chark
#13, Terry McLaurin
#32, Phillip Dorsett
#36, DeMarcus Robinson
#38, John Ross
#44, A.J. Brown
#48, Zach Pascal
#49, Nelson Agholor
#50, Chris Conley
Somebody could have waited for the last 5 rounds of the drafted and still snagged 5 of the top 40 WRs, as well as having 1 in each WR tier as well. That's gotta be unheard of. A few trends obviously emerge. 1, Minshew-mania is alive and well with both Chark and Conley becoming real weapons. 2, the rookie WRs have really adapted well to the NFL. McLaurin, and AJ Brown on this list are all rookies. Other rookies like Marquise Brown, DK Metcalf, and Mecole Hardman have all been in the top 50 as well. Other rookie WRs (Harry, Deebo Samuel, Diontae Johnson, Myers, Slayton, Preston Williams) have shown flashes and may still have the ability to improve on the rest of the season.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Week 7 - Bold Predictions for the ROS

Sorry I missed the post before Thursday night but I had a crazy week at the office. This was especially unfortunate as the top 2 teams in the league are battling this week for league supremacy... But what's in the past is past. So instead of a MOTW (since all the matchups had at least one player that played Thursday night) I'll take this time to make some crazy, bold predictions for the rest of the season, and try to convince you to take the same stance as me.

(Side note: I may have gotten last week's MOTW incorrect, but I did say it would be a matchup decided by single digits and my player predictions were right for the most part other than Fitz)

Bold Prediction 1: Paul makes the playoffs
Currently sitting in 10th place at 1-5 with the 2nd lowest PF in the league, this sounds absurd at first glance. But we do have to remember that Tyreek was out for 4 weeks, Melvin Gordon is still getting back into the groove in LA, and Hopkins has had a sub-par start to the season (even though DeShaun has been an absolute monster).

While the loss of Mahomes will hurt, Tyreek has too much talent to be less than a WR2 in a talented offense that needs to score to stay in games. Melvin Gordon should get back to fringe RB1 status as he gets re-integrated into the offense and is used as the receiving threat he was last year. If Melvin can become a RB1, that pushes Carson, Michel and McCoy down a slot in the running back pecking order on Paul's team. While they were a little risky as RB1, 2, and 3, respectively, they are over-qualified as RB2, 3, and 4. The sudden depth increase at the RB spot may allow him to trade for a QB or a TE that can help solidify his week to week points floor. Lastly, Hopkins cannot keep producing at this rate if DeShaun continues to go off on a week to week basis. He's currently on pace for 1,050 yards and 5 TDs, which isn't a terrible line but for Nuk, that's unacceptable. Since DeShaun took over at the QB spot, he hasn't scored single digit TDs or had less than 1,300 yards. Expect a huge regression to the mean and a solid second half from Hopkins.

Lastly, his schedule breaks almost perfectly for him. He's already had to face the top teams in the league and his next 5 weeks are the teams that are currently in 11th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 12th. If he can sweep them and steal a game in the last 2 weeks against the currently undefeated teams, he should sneak in. He's only 2 games out of the playoffs and he gets to play his direct competition instead of hoping for the best from other teams.

Bold Prediction 2: Mike misses the playoffs
At 5th place, with a 4-2 record, Mike's position shouldn't seem as precarious as it actually is. But there are a few factors that have me concerned about his rest of season outlook. His WR struggles might be more than a temporary trend, his QB situation is still worrisome, and his schedule is one of the tougher remaining schedules in the league.

At first glance, Mike's WRs should be a group that performs on a week to week basis and isn't a position he needs to worry about. But after hot starts, both Keenan and TY have shown signs of slowing down. I'm slightly less worried about Keenan Allen because the Chargers still throw the ball a ton but the reincorporation of both Henry and Gordon could take a few targets away from the sure handed receiver. TY has a trend that's a lot more worrisome. The Colts have turned back the clock and become a team that wants to run the ball, control the clock, and suffocate you with their defense. While this can be a great formula to win games, it's devastating on the production of WRs. The Colts have built an o-line that can run and with the transition from Luck to Brisset, they're willing to take over the game 5 yards at a time rather than through huge chunk plays in the air. Lastly, Boyd has to deal with AJ Green's return, Ross's return, and even Mixon out of the backfield. There's a lot of balls to be thrown in Cincy as they suck and will have to play catch up in every game, but his magic with Dalton from last year seems to have dissipated this season. Mike's QB situation right now is in flux as he waits for Brees to return, but even if Brees returns, will he be back to his old form? On top of that, Brees is much worse on the road (3/1 TD/INT ratio at home, less than 2/1 on the road; 2% lower comp %; 25 fewer YPG) and he's still got 3 road games left on his schedule. Finally, Mike plays a killer slate of teams, still having to play the 2 undefeated teams, as well as the 4th and 6th place teams.

His current PF slots him as the 7th best team in the league and unfortunately, I believe that'll be where he ends up: playing in the consolation bracket.

Bold Prediction 3: Eric's team names for the following 6 weeks
8: Congratulation on the baby #21
9: YDDOBOB
10: Cougars
11: Eric L Team
12: TY-de
13: Kameron Kelly Knockdown

I hope Eric comes up with better ones than these. I'm looking forward to it (especially with my team's luck and performance, it's one of the only things I look forward to. Cho's K + DEF scored 42 points on me last week. FORTY TWO! The third highest combined special teams score of the year [Week 2 Cho had 53 and Week 5 Jon had 44. Yes, I checked]).

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Week 6 - Some Venting + MOTW

In everyone's life, they want to give up on fantasy. It seems that all things in the fantasy world are aligning against them to rape them so thoroughly in the butt, that they can't even sit down in front of the computer to put in a waiver claim. Last year, this happened to somebody (I think it was Dan or Mike) who consistently got screwed, no matter how many points they scored. I am that team this year.

Granted, my team hasn't been scoring that well but I'm currently 8th in PF but sitting at 0-5. Let's take a look at the week to week performances of my opponents:

Week 1: Dan - 143.62, highest score in the league, Dan's highest score this season (Jesus Christ, Mahomes and CMC)
Week 2: Jung - 103.96, 4th highest score in the league, Jung's highest score this season (OBJ and Kelce's only good game of the season so far)
Week 3: David Y - 128.94, highest score in the league, David's 2nd highest score this season (Cowboys played Miami)
Week 4: Jon - 123, 3rd highest score in the league, Jon's 2nd highest score this season (Fournette's best game and Bengals are hapless in Pittsburgh)
Week 5: Rich - 129.16, 3rd highest score in the league, Rich's highest score this season (WTF, Aaron Jones)

With Cho, Mike, and Eric as my next 3 matchups, I may be out of the playoff race by week 8. I'll do a proper post-mortem on my team when we do our annual "What Went Wrong?" column but for now, I'll be crying in the corner.

The plus side is, I'll now have more time and energy to devote to MOTW. But with a lot more sinister and jaded undertones.

MOTW
7. Fe-Brees vs. 9. Mud Dogs
Jung and Jon are at a crucial juncture in the season where their teams haven't quite performed to the level of a champion but they're on the cusp of breaking into the playoffs. A win would be one step in the right direction while a loss would have them pouting with me at home about how the fantasy gods hate them. A loss here (or maybe even a win) could trigger a trade to make one last run at the playoffs (or shore up a position of weakness that they overcame in their week 6 win). Who will take a step towards playoff glory?

Studs: DJ vs. Fitz
I'm all in on the Cardinals this week (I would have put Murray here but I love Fitz and will give him praise every time I can).They're playing against one of the worst secondaries in the league and that should mean a nice bounce back week for Fitz. While Atlanta has been solid against the run, DJ should do plenty of damage as a receiver. The biggest question will be how close the game remains. A Falcons lead bodes well for Jung as Arizona tries to come back, but if the Cardinals take a huge lead by the half, DJ should get close to 30 touches to close out the game.

Duds: Fournette vs. Kelce
Fournette (who HAD to have a great game against me) faces a stiff Saints defense that has shut down some of the best backs in the league (Zeke 18 carries for 35 yards, Carson 15 for 52, 16 for 63). Fournette's specialty has never been efficiency so if the Jags fall behind, expect a single digit performance from Leonard. Kelce has to deal with his QB being slightly hobbled after getting repeatedly destroyed by the Colts on SNF. He won't be able to bust out of his slump against the Texans who have been solid against solid TEs (Hooper 56 yards, Olsen 5, Cook 37).

X-Factors: Williams vs. Diggs
Which Williams on Jon's team am I talking about? I actually don't know since both of them are quite the X-factor this week. Mike hasn't quite been the TD machine we expected him to be but gets a beatable Pittsburgh secondary that will be focused on slowing down Keenan Allen. On the other hand, Preston Williams has been a bright spot in the otherwise trainwreck of a season for the Dolphins (I can't believe they haven't traded him away for a 4th round pick yet). Can he get his first score since week 1 against a team who is just as invested in losing as the Dolphins are? Diggs didn't quite pop open last week, even as he pulled off his best Antonio Brown impression and threw Cousin so far under the bus, he was able to retrieve all the footballs stuck under it. In a matchup that should require a decent amount of throwing, against a secondary that lost Maddox 2 weeks ago (which is somehow a loss??? He was terrible against the Packers, getting repeatedly flagged and beat on routes), can Diggs get his groove back?

Key Players on Bye:
Jon - None
Jung - David Montgomery - Already lacking at RB, Jung will be at Saturday prayer meeting for White and Coleman to perform at levels that haven't been seen before.

Winner: Jung
I actually think this matchup will be decided by less than 10 points. Jung's running backs are pitiful and Jon's WR2 and 3 situation leaves a lot to be desired. But Jung's RBs have solid matchups and the TE chasm looks like it's going to be quite large (a dud by Kelce is still a top 6 score in the league). Special teams leans slightly Jung's way which should be the difference in a close battle to get a step closer to the post-season.

MOTW record: 2-0

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Week 5 - MOTW

Before we get into the MOTW this week, I want Eric to explain why he changed his name to "The Shameful Savages." At first glance, it doesn't really make sense but here's an explanation, in his own words:

"Before you attack me for having a bad opposite team name this week[, l]et me explain. First of all, this is Paul's fault. His team [name] wasn't even good even when he had Chris Hogan and now it's even worse. I had to play around with his team name and I made the executive decision to change his team name reference to Hulk Hogan and therefore I went with Hulk Hogan's rival, Randy Savage"

While I think his opposite team name is terrible, I must say that this his logic is relatively sound. Although, he could have used someone like Calvin Johnson (black, super tall, good at football) or TY Hilton (black, super short, good at football) to represent somebody who is the opposite of Hogan, I'll accept his change based on his reasoning. I also blame all this on Paul who hasn't changed his name even though Hogan is not just not on his team anymore, he's not even relevant in the NFL today. #blamePaul

MOTW
2. Jacked Up! vs. 4. #ridethewave
Cho's team's quest at a 3-peat in the league is off to a great start. While he does owe a bit to a favorable schedule (no opponent has scored over 100 points), he's done his part and scored 100 in each matchup. Chris, after being berated for being an absentee owner, has climbed up to 4th place thanks to the team Yahoo drafted for him. His team is much more star dependent but stars are what make or break fantasy matchups. Can he go on and crush his opponent like his SF Shock did (btw, congratulations to Chris Chung's e-sports team for winning the OWL Grand Finals!)? Or will Cho's string of victories continue for the 5th straight week?

Studs: Julio vs. Chubb
While the Texans aren't necessarily a bad defense, their secondary can be scored on. And with the Falcons defense looking similar to last year, Julio will need to be targetted early and often for the Falcons to have a chance. For Chris, Chubb comes off a monster game and should continue that against an SF team that has a better record than they actually are.

Duds: Shephard vs. Woods

With no Saquon, expect a ton of attention from the Vikings D as they look to shut down the passing game of the Giants. I trust their secondary more than I do their ability to cover Engram with their LBs so Shephard may have a slow day. Woods had a great game last week but that was more of an abberation due to game flow than consistent trend. He's the clear 3rd option in the passing game and against a run heavy, clock killing team like thr Seahawks, expect fewer targets than last week.

X-Factors: Thielen vs. RB2
Thielen has had an up and down season, through no fault of his own. Cousins has looked like the worst version of himself through 4 weeks but after a heart to heart, will Thielen be force fed against the floundering Giants? I'm not sure who Chris will end up playing at RB2. He's got some name value but so many question marks around health litter his backfield. If Damien plays, expect a solid game. If not, I can't imagine more than 6 points from the position.

Key Players on Bye: NONE

Winner: Cho
While I think this might be a tough week for Cho to break 100 points due to some non-plus matchups, Chris looks like he has bigger problems. I don't think any of his WRs break double digits and his RB2 situation looks rough. Cho continues to increase the gap between him and the other vying for a bye.

Per Dan's request, I'll be keeping track of my MOTW record to see if the MOTW jinx is real or not. So far, no real: 1-0

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Week 4 - MOTW

It's finally here!

Your long awaited first MOTW of the season. We'll keep a format similar to last year where I call out studs, duds, and X-factors instead of going through every single position.

We'll start off with 2 teams that are crushing it in the scoring category. And while both teams have done well up to this point, I foresee a blowout loss for one of these teams.

(Also, special shoutout to Eric. Although I usually hate when people keep changing their team name, I'm okay with his consistent format of creating a name that is the opposite of his opponents. I'm looking forward to some of his future matchups; what's the opposite of Fe-Brees, The Glory Hogans, and BOBODDY?)

MOTW
1. BOBODDY vs. 4. David Y Team
Dan's team has been rampaging through the season. His strategy of nabbing a top tier QB and TE paid off as his RBs and WRs have been able to outperform their ADPs. David Y took a big risk with Zeke but it's paid off with no missed games. His decision to draft Dak and Cooper as well have also been paying massive dividends as the Cowboys offense is on fire right now and get to play against some of the weakest defenses in the league in their division.

Studs: Golladay vs. Lockett
Golladay has been all over the place this season but expect big things against a weak Kansas secondary in a game the Lions will be throwing a ton to stay in. While Marvin Jones seems to have the most pivotal plays, Golladay is still the best WR on this team and expect Stafford to look for the big target often. Lockett should have a field day against an Arizona secondary that allowed 4 TDs to Kyle Allen and the Panthers last week. While they are generally weaker against TEs, WRs still feast as long as Patrick Peterson is lurking in the backfield. The only thing limiting Lockett would be if they get out to too big of a lead.

Duds: Ertz vs. Zeke
While it seems like Ertz is due for a huge game this week after being mostly bottled up in the first 3, he'll have to wait for at least one more week. The Packers defense has been relentless in getting after the QB and they've been shutting down every TE they've faced thus far. Now, granted, none of the TEs so far have been on Ertz's level (Shaheen, Rudolph, and Fant aren't exactly fantasy stars), but the linebackers and safeties seem capable of limiting damaging throws to the big men over the middle of the field. Zeke will never be completely shut down but the matchup against the Saints doesn't bode well for him. The Saints have shut down 2 great running backs the last 2 weeks in Gurley and Carson and they are easier to pass on than run on. If Zeke does perform, it'll be due to his ability to catch balls out of the backfield.

X-Factors: Ross vs. MVS
John Ross has cooled off faster than any other player in the NFL over the past 3 weeks. He looked primed to be a star after week 1 (AJ who?) and then cratered last week with an awful performance, including multiple drops. If he can't perform against a banged up Steelers secondary that has given up at least 1 TD to WRs every week, he may disappear once AJ comes back. MVS should have a great week against a Philly defense who can't use the injury excuse anymore. Last year, their entire starting secondary was injured, but this year, even when healthy, only Malcolm Jenkins has looked competent. With much attention being placed on Davante, MVS should burn them for long gains. Philly likes to blitz often so he'll see a ton of single coverage and Rodgers is one of the best against blitzes.

Winner: Dan
I think the Cowboys may struggle more than they have in the last 3 weeks when they played 3 of the worst teams in the NFL (Giants, Redskins, Dolphins). Any regression to the mean for the Cowboys means a tough week for David. Additionally, having all the key skill players on a team can be great when they're a historically great offense, but in games where points are harder to come by, you limit the total potential for your team.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Panic or Peculiarity?

The season is two weeks old and we've already got 4 0-2 teams who may be wondering how their life went so wrong. While 2 games can reveal some massive flaws, it doesn't make or break a season. So, which of these teams need to panic and which ones can move on from a peculiar 2 weeks to start the season?

(As always, I won't write about my team unless it's a league-wide review or the playoff MOTWs)

(Also, for teams at the top of the table who want some media coverage due to your success, hang tight; MOTW is returning next week)

10. Fe-Brees (Jon)
Reasons for Panic:
1. Mike Evans usage - Unlike Godwin, Mike Evans has not benefited from the arrival from Coach Arians (but, nobody is suffering more than newly minted fullback O.J. Howard, RIP). Evans's targets are down, Godwin looks like the new number 1 option, and they're wasting valuable snaps on forcing Peyton Barber to average 3 YPC.
2. David Johnson's failed return - Similar to Evans, DJ hasn't quite boomed as much as we expected from a new coach (and QB). The good news is that they look more competent on offense. The problem is that they're using a lot of 4 WR sets where DJ gets to do more blocking than running routes.
3. No 2nd RB - Duke Johnson (who I believed was a reach as the #1 RB in Houston) has completely lost his lead back duties to Hyde. He's nothing more than a 3rd down receiving back, just like he was in Cleveland. Fournette continues to struggle and the absence of Foles will only exacerbate that.

Reasons for Peculiarity:
1. Scoring outburst in week 1 - Jon didn't have a terrible week 1 but is opponent dropped 135 on him. It's tough to win when your opponent scores that many points on you.
2. Wentz's fantasy potential - Wentz looks really good, with no ill effects lingering from his injuries, and with the ground game and defense struggling, the Eagles look like they'll be throwing a ton. If he can score 20 points without Alshon and DJax, he should be a top 5 QB by the end of the year.
3. Hunter Henry's injury - Henry's return could provide a boost to Jon by improving his TE spot or providing him with a trade chip to improve his team.

Panic level: 8/10
The issues with his stars are real. They should regress to the mean a bit but not enough to make up the value that he drafted them with. Jon may need to make a few shrewd moves to stay in the playoff hunt.

11. The Glory Hogans (Paul)
Reasons for Panic:
1. Cam's injuries - What's going on with Cam? He's missing easy throws and doesn't seem to want to run the ball. If the Panthers keep losing, they'll most likely shut him down to save him for next year, dealing a huge blow to Paul.
2. Inconsistent backfield - Both Carson and Michel are good running backs on winning teams, but their outputs have been limited by various factors. Carson has Penny taking carries for no reason and Michel has to deal with White, Burkhead, and the plethora of receivers that need touches on the Pats offense.
3. Rough upcoming schedule - Paul plays plays the number 5, 2, and 6 ranked teams from week 4-6. He would have gone 1-5 against that group in the first 2 weeks. Not a great way to stay in the playoff race.

Reasons for Peculiarity:
1. Unlucky start to the season - Both of his opponents scored 100+ points in his first 2 matchups. 100 points isn't insurmountable but breaking 100 isn't something that happens easily.
2. Tyreek Hill and Melvin Gordon's return - These are two guys who should finish in the top 15 in their respective positions. If Paul's team can stay afloat long enough, they will give him a solid team that could make a run to the postseason.
3. Nuk - Having Nuk on your team is like having a nuke if you're a country. You always feel safe knowing that you have one of the most powerful forces in your back pocket.

Panic level: 3/10
I think Paul will be okay. Even with the injury/holdout, he has a solid team that can compete on a week to week basis. As long as he doesn't get to 7 losses before the return of his stars, he'll be in the playoff hunt.

12. steel city 4ever (Rich)
Reasons for Panic:
1. Juju and Conner's production dip - Having the rapist gone is definitely going to be detrimental for the other Steelers skill positions. Don't get me wrong, they'll still be the #1 options in the air and ground, respectively, but expect a 20%ish discount on their projected numbers. Conner's injury doesn't add any reassurances.
2. Cooks + Kupp - I hate harping on this point but unless you have two receivers from a historically great offense (Manning's Broncos, Manning's Colts, Brady's Patriots, Mahomes's Chiefs) it doesn't make sense to have 2 options. And when that team is led by Goff, who couldn't manage any TDs in a Super Bowl, you DEFINITELY shouldn't have two of them.
3. Baker, Njoku connection non-existent - While the Browns dreamed big this offseason, the reality hasn't been as welcoming. Nobody has suffered more then Njoku as OBJ is clearly the mouth to feed in this offense. He's been running decoy routes or blocking more than he's been a TD monster.

Reasons for Peculiarity:
1. Unlucky start to the season - Both of his opponents scored 100+ points in his first 2 matchups. 100 points isn't insurmountable but breaking 100 isn't something that happens easily.
2. Penny and Fuller's increasing workload - One man's annoyance is another man's fantasy treasure. As Penny continues to steal touches from Carson and Fuller gets more looks from Watson, they could become every week startable players.
3. Aaron Jones catching balls - While Aaron Jones was going to be successful, he's added a more dynamic receiving game to his already physical style of running. This allows him to be the other Aaron's check down options and possibly play all 3 downs.

Panic level: 10/10
This team is screwed. Rich may need to make some sweeping changes and drastic moves to stay afloat in the playoff race.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Week 2!

The first week of football started off with possibly the worst game of the week (How do Bears fans believe in Trubisky?) but ended with one of the greatest games we've seen (Poor DeShaun Watson). I'm so glad football is back but if every game was like GB v. CHI, I may have to reconsider my NFL fandom.

But anyways, we had some monster performances (Could this finally be the year Dan takes the prize? Other than possibly missing a true WR1, his team has no visible weaknesses; Eric's poaching backup running back strategy may have panned out with Ekeler expected to carry a heavy load in to at least November) and some equally awful duds (Rich, David K, I'm praying for you guys).

It's too early for a MOTW and unfortunately I didn't have enough time to update the FPI or do any other in-depth analysis due to my client's go-live this past weekend. BUT... actually, I have nothing positive to promise. Just that starting in week 3, I will be delivering a post every week and that you can look forward to the survey mentioned in the previous post around week 13 so you can take it when you want some alone time from the family during Thanksgiving.

Anyways, 1 week doesn't make a season. If you won, don't rest on your laurels. If you didn't, you've got 12 more games to come back.

Good luck to all!

Fantasy 2019 is here! Draft Highlights and More!

Welcome to 2019!

Thanks for everyone who could make it to the draft, with a special shout out to Mike, logging on during work hours. We had the liveliest chat in a while so I hope that this continues in the years to come. Let's hope Chris's no show isn't indicative of how he will perform his managerial duties on a day to day basis.

We're going to do a quick version of the draft analysis and then I want to give some more details on a "State of the League" survey that will go out in the next few weeks.

Just Forsett In (Mike Lee)
Best Pick: 2nd Round, Devonta Freeman
Worst Pick: 6th Round, Sammy Watkins
Sleeper: 14th Round, Jimmy Garoppolo
Grade: B+

If you haven't heard, I'm all in on the Atlanta offense this year. 13 of their 15 fantasy weeks (excluding their bye) are in a dome and the 2 non-dome games are in Carolina and SF, relatively warmer weather stadiums. Matt Ryan's struggle in bad weather is well documented so the entire Falcons offense should show more punch with this quirk in their schedule. Freeman should bounce back this season without Tevin Coleman. Sammy Watkins may play in the highest ceiling offense in the league, but his upside is quite limited. the Chiefs have drafted additional playmakers and with the addition of McCoy, that's a few less targets to spread around. Jimmy G has got some great weapons on offense that should make him an instant fantasy threat. Kyle Shanahan made Matt Ryan into an MVP so even if Jimmy isn't as talented, expect QB1 numbers.

Afghanistananis (Dan Park)
Best Pick: 4th Round, Kenny Golladay
Worst Pick: 2nd Round, Patrick Mahomes
Sleeper: 13th-15th, Trio of Patriots
Grade: B

All aboard the Golladay hype train! While he'll never be able to match Calvin Johnson's stats, Babytron should be able to put up low-end WR1 numbers as the focal point of the Lions passing attack. No more Tate should mean Kenny gets fed. While I love Patrick Mahomes, taking a QB in the 2nd round hampers the entire rest of your team. While Dan's running backs should be solid, his WRs talent and depth have taken a hit due to the high capital invested in the QB position. We'll see if Mahomes can continue the magic from last year. Never say die with the Patriots. While he's dropped Harry at this point, Brady and Gostkowski are great fliers in the last 3 rounds. Brady may not have been a QB1 last year, but you'd be foolish not to keep him as your backup QB in case he blows up. At kicker, Gostkowski may never reach the heights of a Tucker or Zuerlein, but he'll always finish the season in the top 6.

David Y Team (David Yim)
Best Pick: 3rd Round, Amari Cooper
Worst Pick: 1st Round, Ezekiel Elliott
Sleeper: 14th Round, Jordan Reed
Grade: C-

The 2nd Cowboy David took should be one of the stars of his team. Amari showed great chemistry with Dak, and while his TD totals should regress, he should still get 10 targets a game. As for the first Cowboy... when will David learn? Last year Bell, this year Zeke. Now, the situation is slightly different since Le'Veon was on an unsigned franchise tag and Zeke is under contract. But why take this risk 2 years in a row with tons of other options available? And if you take Zeke, why not handcuff with Pollard? He's since dropped him but Jordan Reed could have been a sneaky stash. It's always a big if, but IF Jordan Reed stays healthy, there's nothing keeping him from joining the Kelce, Kittle, Ertz class of TEs.

Fe-brees (Jon Lee)
Best Pick: 2nd Round, Mike Evans
Worst Pick: 5th Round, Duke Johnson Jr.
Sleeper: 10th Round, Geronimo Allison
Grade: C

While everyone is hyped up on Chris Godwin this year, I don't see why all the factors that should benefit Godwin won't benefit Evans as well. Evans is one of the best contested catch receivers in the league and if he gets better, cleaner looks, I don't think he's going to develop a case of spontaneous butterfingers. As for Duke Johnson, he's never been able to show he's a feature back type player, even when Cleveland was struggling and didn't have much competition in the backfield. Why would anyone believe that he's going to perform better than Lamar Miller behind the same o-line (Note: Texans have improved their o-line since the draft but there was no way to know this at the time)? Additionally, the addition of Hyde more likely than not pushes Duke into a 3rd down back role. I'm always a fan of drafting the slot receiver in Aaron Rodgers offenses since they have tons of opportunities to run after the catch. Allison in the 10th round is a great value pick and he could even usurp Corey Davis or Mike Williams of a starting spot.

Shock the F'n World (Chris Chung)
N/A
Grade: Absent

Yahoo drafted for him.

O-PI Awareness* Tour (David Kim)
Best Pick: 4th Round, Josh Jacobs
Worst Pick: 1st Round, Davante Adams
Sleeper: 15th Round, Kirk Cousins
Grade: B+

Josh Jacobs is going to be one of the few bell cow backs in the league. He's fast, he's strong, he can catch, he's young, he's got little competition, and he's in old-school Gruden's offense. We'll see if the line can create enough holes for him but he should get plenty of opportunity to thrive. The three backs on David's team, Mack and Mixon being the others, form a great trio that could all finish in the top 20. But while I love his 2-4 picks, his 1st pick was questionable. Will Davante Adams get a ton of balls thrown his way? Yes. But is it enough to pick over Nuk, or James Conner? No. While it's not egregious, as Davante is still a first rounder, we'll see if this is the difference between a solid playoff run and a championship. I do like the Rodgers/Davante stack strategy. David's truly going boom or bust with the Packers offense. Kirk Cousins was a QB1 last year and should develop further chemistry with Diggs and Thielen (and new addition Doctson). While Rodgers will start for David most weeks, Cousins should be a great insurance plan.

trubiskuits (Rich Kim)
Best Pick: 6th Round, Baker Mayfield
Worst Pick: 5th Round, Cooper Kupp
Sleeper: 11th Round, Jameis Winston
Grade: B-

Baker has a chance at being a top 3 QB this year, especially with additional weapons in his arsenal, the biggest being OBJ. Taken after Rodgers and Watson, he has a chance at overtaking them both. My biggest problem with the Kupp pick isn't necessarily the pick itself, even if I thought it was a slight reach in the 5th round. My biggest issue is that you just drafted Brandin Cooks the round before. Even if the Rams don't regress at all from last year's prolific offense, I still see them struggling to feed both Kupp and Cooks enough times for both to be playable on a week to week basis. Once again, there's a lot of hype around the Arians train and I do believe that Arians can make Jameis into a fantasy relevant QB once again. He's got great receivers around him (Evans, Godwin, Howard), they should trail in plenty of games, and their backfield is so bad that their best option may be to throw 70 times a game.

The Glory Hogans (Paul Kim)
Best Pick: 3rd Round, Chris Carson
Worst Pick: 5th Round, Melvin Gordon
Sleeper: 12th Round, Mecole Hardman
Grade: B

Chris Carson is going to be a beast this year. He was the 14th best RB last year and that's with 4 games where he carried the ball less than 10 times and splitting the backfield regularly with 2 other backs. One of the backs that steals his carries (Mike Davis) is gone and he should be healthy enough to keep Penny at bay. Melvin Gordon is currently Paul's worst pick because he might not play at all this year. Melvin can forgo the season and still become a free agent due to meeting the required number of years to pursue free agency (unlike Zeke who will need to put in at least 1 more season). If Gordon can even play half the season, this may turn into a great pick, but each week he misses will steadily decrease the value Paul could see from taking Melvin so high. It's always worth taking a flier on uber-athletic players in the best offenses in the league. Hardman fits that to a tee as he runs a sub 4.35 forty and gets to play with football genius Mahomes. Would you rather have Watkins in the 6th or Hardman in the 12th? Give me Hardman. If Paul can't cash in this year, somebody next year should be taking him in the single digit rounds.

Don't Stop BellLeveon (Eric Lee)
Best Pick: 5th Round, Robby Anderson
Worst Pick: 3rd Round, Julian Edelman
Sleeper (10th round or later): 15th Round, Golden Tate
Grade: B

I had to give Eric a B because his entire bench is backup backs. His strategy (?) is that Gordon holds out, Gurley gets hurt, Ballage disappoints, and Royce Freeman doesn't recover from his injury. But on to his best pick... Robby Anderson finished as a WR3 last year and his opportunities should only get better with a legit threat in the backfield in Bell and an improving Darnold. His other WR spot was filled by Edelman, which may have been a waste of a draft pick. With Josh Gordon's return and DT suiting up, I don't see many TDs coming Edelman's way. And this is even before we get to Gronk's potential return. Edelman should see plenty of targets but the lack of scores will prevent him from living up to his 3rd round draft slot. He's since been dropped but Tate is the only healthy human with hands in the Giants' WR corp. 4 games is easy to wait out for a solid WR3.

Berries'n Kareem (Jung Kim)
Best Pick: 3rd Round, Stefon Diggs
Worst Pick: 1st Round, Travis Kelce
Sleeper: 11th Round, DeSean Jackson
Grade: C

Stefon Diggs started developing much better chemistry with Cousins over the latter half of 2018. After only catching 3 TDs in the first half, he had 6 TDs in the second. Diggs clearly has Cousins's trust in the red zone and should see double digit scores in 2019. While Kelce is clearly the best TE on the best offense, it's tough to build your team's depth if you take a TE in round 1. Jung's WR depth is severely hampered due to this pick and if Murray can't develop into a QB1, Jung's team could be out of the playoff hunt before week 8. Always draft DeSean Jackson. Even when he's retired.

Jacked Up! (Brian Cho)
Best Pick: 1st Round, Le'Veon Bell
Worst Pick: 4th Round, Derrick Henry
Sleeper: 11th Round, Emmanuel Sanders
Grade: B-

While there's a lot of speculation on how Bell will do outside of the Steeler's offense and after a year away from football, he's a supremely talented player who just got to refresh his legs for a whole year. While injuries are always a concern, it was just last year that Bell was considered a top 3 pick. Getting him at the end of the first round is a steal. But Bell's backfield mate on Cho's team gives me pause. While his last 3 weeks of the season last year were incredible (238 + 4TDs, 170 + 2TDs, 92 + TD), he was positively mediocre outside of that. Maybe I just don't trust the Titans offense but I don't see what they've done to ensure they can continue this kind of production for Henry. Dion Lewis still lurks on 3rd downs and I expect a lot of stacked boxes against Tennessee. While I don't endorse a lot of athletes who return from Achilles injuries, if Sanders can return to 80%, he's still the best receiver on that Broncos team. Once Flacco realizes that Sanders can get the most separation on a consistent basis, I can't see Sutton or Hamilton threatening his production.

Draft Winner(s): Mike Lee, David Kim
Just as his name says, Mike may have drafted the best team this year. With solid players at every position and arguably the greatest sure thing in fantasy right now, only major injuries should be able to derail him. David's three backfield monsters look like the most talented and deepest 3 backs on any team in the league. Combine that with Dede, who should get tons of shots from Foles, and Samuel, quietly becoming the number one receiving option on the Panthers, and the Rodgers+Davante stack, David could finally take 2 heartbreaking season finishes and cash in on the grand prize this year.

Draft Loser: David Yim
No Zeke. Injury prone QB. Luck-less Ebron. When's AJ coming back? Are any of his bench players actually going to be startable? While his team shouldn't be horrendous (nobody got a D or F this year!), he has way more question marks than most other teams. I see David struggling unless Zeke reports before the season starts. Otherwise, he'll have to make a move like he did last year (trading Kelce away) to keep his team afloat.

Last but not least...

League Survey
In the coming weeks, I will put together a survey to get your feedback in regards communication, draft setup, scoring, fees, and more.  This will be my 10th year as commissioner and I thought 10 years in is a good time to get feedback from our members and tweak the league as necessary. I'll share the feedback with the entire league and make changes if the entire league is asking for them. On issues that are more split, we'll try to get arguments for and against the topic and we can put the issue up for vote. I look forward to your participation!

P.S. People, please update your team names! Some of them are horrendously boring (David Y Team), don't make sense anymore (Kerryon MyWaywardSon), or both (Fe-Brees).

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim