Sorry I missed the post before Thursday night but I had a crazy week at the office. This was especially unfortunate as the top 2 teams in the league are battling this week for league supremacy... But what's in the past is past. So instead of a MOTW (since all the matchups had at least one player that played Thursday night) I'll take this time to make some crazy, bold predictions for the rest of the season, and try to convince you to take the same stance as me.
(Side note: I may have gotten last week's MOTW incorrect, but I did say it would be a matchup decided by single digits and my player predictions were right for the most part other than Fitz)
Bold Prediction 1: Paul makes the playoffs
Currently sitting in 10th place at 1-5 with the 2nd lowest PF in the league, this sounds absurd at first glance. But we do have to remember that Tyreek was out for 4 weeks, Melvin Gordon is still getting back into the groove in LA, and Hopkins has had a sub-par start to the season (even though DeShaun has been an absolute monster).
While the loss of Mahomes will hurt, Tyreek has too much talent to be less than a WR2 in a talented offense that needs to score to stay in games. Melvin Gordon should get back to fringe RB1 status as he gets re-integrated into the offense and is used as the receiving threat he was last year. If Melvin can become a RB1, that pushes Carson, Michel and McCoy down a slot in the running back pecking order on Paul's team. While they were a little risky as RB1, 2, and 3, respectively, they are over-qualified as RB2, 3, and 4. The sudden depth increase at the RB spot may allow him to trade for a QB or a TE that can help solidify his week to week points floor. Lastly, Hopkins cannot keep producing at this rate if DeShaun continues to go off on a week to week basis. He's currently on pace for 1,050 yards and 5 TDs, which isn't a terrible line but for Nuk, that's unacceptable. Since DeShaun took over at the QB spot, he hasn't scored single digit TDs or had less than 1,300 yards. Expect a huge regression to the mean and a solid second half from Hopkins.
Lastly, his schedule breaks almost perfectly for him. He's already had to face the top teams in the league and his next 5 weeks are the teams that are currently in 11th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 12th. If he can sweep them and steal a game in the last 2 weeks against the currently undefeated teams, he should sneak in. He's only 2 games out of the playoffs and he gets to play his direct competition instead of hoping for the best from other teams.
Bold Prediction 2: Mike misses the playoffs
At 5th place, with a 4-2 record, Mike's position shouldn't seem as precarious as it actually is. But there are a few factors that have me concerned about his rest of season outlook. His WR struggles might be more than a temporary trend, his QB situation is still worrisome, and his schedule is one of the tougher remaining schedules in the league.
At first glance, Mike's WRs should be a group that performs on a week to week basis and isn't a position he needs to worry about. But after hot starts, both Keenan and TY have shown signs of slowing down. I'm slightly less worried about Keenan Allen because the Chargers still throw the ball a ton but the reincorporation of both Henry and Gordon could take a few targets away from the sure handed receiver. TY has a trend that's a lot more worrisome. The Colts have turned back the clock and become a team that wants to run the ball, control the clock, and suffocate you with their defense. While this can be a great formula to win games, it's devastating on the production of WRs. The Colts have built an o-line that can run and with the transition from Luck to Brisset, they're willing to take over the game 5 yards at a time rather than through huge chunk plays in the air. Lastly, Boyd has to deal with AJ Green's return, Ross's return, and even Mixon out of the backfield. There's a lot of balls to be thrown in Cincy as they suck and will have to play catch up in every game, but his magic with Dalton from last year seems to have dissipated this season. Mike's QB situation right now is in flux as he waits for Brees to return, but even if Brees returns, will he be back to his old form? On top of that, Brees is much worse on the road (3/1 TD/INT ratio at home, less than 2/1 on the road; 2% lower comp %; 25 fewer YPG) and he's still got 3 road games left on his schedule. Finally, Mike plays a killer slate of teams, still having to play the 2 undefeated teams, as well as the 4th and 6th place teams.
His current PF slots him as the 7th best team in the league and unfortunately, I believe that'll be where he ends up: playing in the consolation bracket.
Bold Prediction 3: Eric's team names for the following 6 weeks
8: Congratulation on the baby #21
9: YDDOBOB
10: Cougars
11: Eric L Team
12: TY-de
13: Kameron Kelly Knockdown
I hope Eric comes up with better ones than these. I'm looking forward to it (especially with my team's luck and performance, it's one of the only things I look forward to. Cho's K + DEF scored 42 points on me last week. FORTY TWO! The third highest combined special teams score of the year [Week 2 Cho had 53 and Week 5 Jon had 44. Yes, I checked]).
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
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