Week 7 - Looking Back at Pre-season Predictions

6 weeks are in the books and while it seems a little early, I think now is a good time to take a look at how my pre-season predictions are doing. Was I right? With all the injuries, roster moves (both in real life and in fantasy), and development of players, which teams look like they have the best or worst outlook? (Original predictions in Italics)

Favorites:

Let Bijans be Bijans (David K)

What? David K makes my list 2 years in a row?? This is not a mistake. Sure, Bijan and Garrett could be a risky combo, banking on 2 guys under 23. However, Bijan should dominate on an Atlanta team that runs when they're down 28 and Wilson had 1000+ yards with Flacco and Zach Wilson. Imagine what he can do with Rodgers who loves to overtarget his favorite guys. Add to those 2 a Lamar/Andrews stack in what should be a fast-paced offense, Addison who could be a rookie sleeper next to JJettas, and James Conner, an underrated back who has the backfield to himself, and suddenly, David K has got a squad. Warren and Doubs are great sleepers that he basically got for free and Goff could finish as a top 10 QB. Watch out world. David K is coming for his ship.

Week 7 Prognosis: 3rd place, still looking like one of the frontrunners

David K continues his hold near the top of the rankings but it's not quite because of the reason I had originally predicted. Bijan has been good but not amazing, Wilson has lost Rodgers, and Lamar and Andrews have been underwhelming. Instead, he got to pull off an amazing trade to get a top 3 WR in Diggs and that's just leveled up his entire team's potential every week. If some of the original reasons for optimism start to match the pre-season hype I had for them, David's team could become scary in a hurry.

Jacked Up! (Cho)

Although I'm not a huge Saquon fan this year, the rest of his roster looks great. Amon-Ra already showed us that he's ready to feast as Goff's favorite target. Keenan Allen and Darren Waller could be top 30 players that fell way too far because of the perceived step back they will take due to their age. If Deshaun Watson can regain some of the Houston form (and not sexually harass masseuses), Kenneth Walker holds off Charbonnet and becomes a bell cow back, and one of his lottery ticket WRs pays off (Pickens, Michael Thomas, Alec Pierce), Cho could be coming back to regain the trophy that was once his.

Week 7 Prognosis: 1st place, hasn't dropped one freaking game and hasn't scored under 100 points

This team is dominating for all the reasons I stated. Amon-Ra is truly thriving as a WR1, Keenan Allen is having a ridic season at the ripe old age of 31, and Kenneth Walker has truly been one of the steals of the draft. Add in that Pickens has been great in certain weeks and a few other positive surprises and Cho's team looks like a tough out for the rest of the season. He's almost already clinched a playoff spot.

Any Teams I Would Add to This Tier? None

Dark Horse:

No Punts Intended (Paul)

Although his team is WR heavy, the 3 heavy WRs could all finish as WR1s. Chase should compete for the overall WR1, DeVonta is in a high-powered offense looking at single coverage thanks to AJ, and Ridley will be TLaw's defacto number 1 option. Herbert was criminally underrated due to his struggles last year (he had broken ribs, missed his left tackle, and was stuck in Lombardi's conservative offense) and although his RBs are weak, If Cook or White can both just be RB2s, this WR corp may be enough to destroy most teams.

Week 7 Prognosis: 11th place, a little bit unlucky but also a little bit his own fault

If you just went by points for, Paul would be in 7th place so there's definitely a lack of luck here. He's also lost 3 matchups by fewer than 1.5 points so there's definitely some unluckiness here. However, let's dive in to some of those losses. In week 2, he barely loses because he benched Mostert, even after Mostert had a solid showing in week 1. In week 3, he tries to ride the hot hand at TE and benches Freiermuth for Kincaid, costing him the win and wasting Mostert's 41.7 point performance. And then in week 6, he gets too cute and benches Herbert and plays the other LA QB. If he could get out of his own way and trust the stars to be stars, He could be 5-1. He's got quite a hole to come out of and while his roster has talent, we'll see if Paul can stay out of his own way.

In Time (Eric)

First off, great team name. Somehow an homage to The Office and a pun based on his best player's name all in one. I'm hoping Eric will make the effort to get a picture of the real Justin as his team's profile pic. But look at this roster and try to find a true weakness. It might be TE but outside of Kelce, TE feels like a wasteland this year. He's got 2 RBs that own their backfield and are young enough to have a breakout year, 3 WRs that have clearly defined roles in great offenses and a QB that should run enough to have a great floor any given week. Watch out.

Week 7 Prognosis: 4th place, some injuries may have him trending down but watch out when he's healthy

JJeff and Fields have been 2 of the most dynamic players not just on this team but in the league. Unfortunately for the next few weeks, they won't be a factor due to their injuries. If ETN and Waddle can carry a little more weight than they are used to and survive until the big stars come back, this should be a difficult team to face in the playoffs.

Any Teams I Would Add to This Tier?

BEST TEAM (Mike): His WRs go 5 deep and if Burrow can get back to being a top tier QB, he doesn't really have any major weaknesses.

One Tyreek Hill (Jon): Hill is having a ridic WR1 season and his 2 best RBs might be the ones that were taken later in the draft. If he can figure out the QB and TE positions, he could make a run.

Cellar Dweller:

MotherKuppin Hamstring Rich’s 삼겹살 Brock Party 🎉🥓 (Rich)

It's not entirely his fault as his team was auto-drafted in the first 4 rounds or so (although it is his fault for not showing up) but it's a tough hill to climb when your first round pick may not be available for a while. And even when he comes back, can a 30 year old Kupp regain his form? And if the Rams suck, will they even risk reinjury? Add to that Davante who somehow downgraded again from Carr to Jimmy G, Aaron Jones who lost Rodgers and will probably lose more work to Dillon, and Mattison, who gets a large opportunity but has never really shown explosiveness in the past. The cherry on top is Daniel Jones at QB. I know real life QB competence doesn't equal fantasy competence but keep me away from anything related to Daniel Jones. Without Kupp, this team truly looks like it'll struggle every week to put up over 100 points.

Week 7 Prognosis: 9th place, shown flashes of greatness and Kupp's return may take them out of this tier

So... I was wrong about Kupp. Davante is still great and Aaron Jones just needs to get healthy again for this team to have some cornerstones that can make them compete with the big boys. He even got rid of the Daniel Jones problem with pleasant surprise Brock Purdy. I'm not saying this is a world beating team but the future is better than I could have predicted.

Saticoy Steel (Dan)

What a great Office callback. Dan, I will reward you one day for being so consistent and on top of your team names. But I really don't understand the strategy of drafting Kelce and Hock in the first 5 rounds. The Kelce Mahomes stack may not be as good this year if Kelce has a hard time recovering at all from his knee injury and teams triple team him due to the fact that apparently nobody else on the team can catch a ball. His WRs are pretty weak, with most of them being on poor offenses or too far down the depth chart to be counted on week to week. I don't want to doubt Dan, who honestly may have been a champ last year, but that 5th round pick will keep me scratching my head.

Week 7 Prognosis: 7th place, so I guess we all saw Dan's master plan

Looks like the whole point of taking TJ is understanding that the market for TE would naturally develop. He was able to trade him for a bell cow back in Mixon and although his team's results have been mixed, it's definitely been better overall since the trade. Mahomes and Kelce is still a tandem that can carry a team to a win in any given week and with Mixon, Marquise, and Breece, he has multiple blow up guys that could carry him to a win in any given week. Watch out for Charles Miner (mine her? I hardly knew her!)

Any Teams I Would Add to This Tier?

David Y Team (David Y): We'll talk more about that trade... in a later post. Stay tuned.

it's all in the hips (Jung): It's not really his fault but when you lose your first round pick (Chubb) and your QB that you thought was going to be a value pick (Rodgers), it's tough to come back from. However, Jung's team has been quite plucky lately so if he can get out of this bye week hell with a win, the future may be rosier than it was after week 2.

Good luck to all!

Week 6 - MOTW

In case you're getting sick of my MOTWs (which by the way, I'm 2-0 on the season, and will now continue to track because it makes me look good), we got some other posts coming in the future. I'll do a look back at the pre-season predictions I made, perform a retrospective of the trades that have occurred, and either do a "best possible draft" or "best pickups of the year" post (or maybe both). So there's some good content coming! Also, since I never seem to actually close out the year on a post, I'm not going to give that expectation going forward. I'll just do a playoff preview, pick my winner, and we'll close out the posts for the year like that.

Without further ado...

MOTW

 8. David Y Team (David Y) vs. 9. Rich’s 삼겹살 Brock Party 🎉🥓 (Rich)

(This MOTW is done assuming David picks his best available replacements for his injured and bye week players)

QB: David ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Rich

Dak has struggled a bit thus far, not quite having any explosive weeks and posting under 10 points twice. But if there's any cure for that, it's the Chargers defense. The Chargers currently remind me of Colts of the 00's. They have such a great offense and score so easily that even though they have some stars on defense and usually get to play with knowing they can rush the passer, they still give up tons of points, resulting in massive shootouts. Dak gets a chance to participate in that shootout. On the other side, in a vacuum, I think I take Brock over Dak. But Brock has the unfortunate luxury of going in to Cleveland (west coast going to the Eastern time zone) and facing a ferocious Browns defense who are coming well-rested off a bye. Slight edge to Dak this week (probably a sentence I won't be saying much this year)

WR: David ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 Rich

Just 3 weeks ago, this matchup would have looked a lot closer. But now that Diggs doesn't rep David's team anymore, This one is clearly a lopsided win for Rich. Kupp is back to doing Kupp things, Davante is matchup and QB proof, and Cooper gets to perform at home after rehearsing routes for 2 weeks with DeShaun (hopefully they didn't go get massages together). While David gets DK back from a bye, AJ Brown will be covered in Sauce on Sunday, and Addison is still a WR3 as the absence of JJ creates more targets but the quality of those targets drops dramatically.

RB: David ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Rich

Here's an interesting conundrum for David: because he gave up so much for Ford, does he feel pressured to start him in place of  Pierce or Montgomery? DMont has been red hot as the red zone option for a surprisingly well-oiled Lions attack. Pierce has gotten insane volume (averaging 19 carries or 21 total opps per game over the last 3) as the surprising Texans are allowing him to be effective. Ford gets a tough SF defense but will David feel the pressure to start him anyways? Should be an interesting game time call. Swift has been a nice surprise for Rich but he gets a rough matchup against a solid Jets front 7. Mattison is losing opportunities quickly and even in what looks like a plus matchup against Chicago, if the Bears play like they did last week, he may find that running room is hard to find.

TE/K/DST: David ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Rich

No big surprises or swings here but I think I'm ever so slightly leaning in David's direction. LaPorta has been a target hog, especially in the red zone. Goedert had one blowup game so I think he falls back to earth and posts his typical single digit performance. I always take the best kicker in football over almost anyone else, even though Bass should get plenty of opportunities against the Giants (or will they all be XPs?). And neither defense plays a terrible offense, so I'll take the one with better talent overall.

Winner: Rich

At first glance, it feels like Rich's team should win in a landslide but on closer examination, due to matchups and David's yet to be updated lineup, I think it will actually be pretty close. Both teams are playing to stay alive as 1-5 or 2-4 is a pretty tough hole to climb out of. Unfortunately, I think David will come to rue his his trade as Rich's receivers carry him to the win.

Season MOTW Record: 2-0

Good luck to all!

Week 5 - MOTW

For those that are expecting it or are curious, yes, I will be doing a trade retrospective at some point in the year. There have already been 3 massive trades in our league that have altered rosters and could potentially swing the competitive landscape and potentially even crown the champion this year as a result of the move. We'll give it a couple more weeks because 1. I don't think our league is done making trades based on the roster construction of some teams and 2. We need a couple more weeks to let the results marinate before we judge them properly (although last week was a very fun week between the Davids and we saw the trade literally swing the win from one team to the other).

In the meantime, let's enjoy another MOTW.

MOTW

7. Saticoy Steel (Dan) vs. 8. No Punts Intended (Paul) - (NOTE: For those wondering how I determine who gets listed first in these MOTWs, it's whoever is ahead in the standings. Small perk of being the better team to that point)

QB: Dan ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Paul

As a Mahomes fan (especially when he led me to my latest title), it's hard for me to ever pick against him. But against a Minny defense that allowed Mayfield to throw 2 TDs, got torched for almost a perfect game by Herbert, and couldn't even pick off Bryce Young? Mahomes is about to feast. We'll talk about the main beneficiary to his monster game later in this post. Stafford should have to throw a lot to keep up with Philly but expect a few mistakes and clock control by Philly to limit his effectiveness.

WR: Dan ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 Paul

Paul's wide receiver group may be the best in the league. It makes sense because he took 3 WRs with his first 3 picks but it's a really imposing group. Even with the underperformance of Chase and Ridley and the volatility of Devonta Smith, all 3 of these guys are arguably top 15 WRs for fantasy purposes. Dan's receivers are more opportunistic or sneaky value. Terry McLaurin is thriving under Bienemy, Marquise is the only star in that WR room, and Jeudy still looks like the best receiver for Russ to consistently throw to on a Denver team that throws a lot because they're behind often. But would I start any of them over Paul's WRs? Probably not (maybe Terry against a putrid Chicago defense).

RB: Dan ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Paul

I think this is the most interesting matchup of this matchup. The highest "rated" RB is probably Mixon and he gets a great matchup against a Cardinals defense that just let CMC score 4 times. Breece Hall has been limited by Wilson but he looks to be getting more comfortable coming back from his injury, Wilson is looking a little more competent, and there have been reports that he will no longer be on a snap count (which is good for the Jets because Cook looks cooked). On Paul's side, Dalvin's younger brother finally looks like a back that the Bills can trust on all 3 downs, although his upside is limited by Allen and other Bills receivers that are red zone threats. Mostert is a gamebreaker but Achane keeps eating into his opportunities and just looks better than Mostert. It's hard to say how Miami will use him on any given week but in that offense, even 10-15 touches may be enough to have a solid week. All this to say, I can't give the edge to either team but the performance of these RBs may be what determines the outcome of this matchup.

TE/K/DST: Dan 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ Paul

Kelce. See the Mahomes analysis above. Enough said...

Okay, I guess I'll expand on this one a bit more. Any TE is going to struggle to match up against Kelce but Kincaid? He might not even be the best TE on his own team. Kelce is going to feast against a Minny defense that struggles to guard the pass. Don't be fooled by their matchup rating against TEs. They haven't faced any real TEs and none of them are the first option like Kelce is. The kickers look like they'll be a wash as they should both get opportunities in an interesting game that's played indoors. Miami hasn't been great as a unit but they should feast against Danny Doo Doo who can't do anything since Saquon has been out. New England is dealing with some injuries and depending on how Carr's shoulder progresses this week, might be in for a challenge from a Saints team that got Kamara back.

Winner: Dan

While Paul's receivers are good, I think the gap that Kelce creates will be tough to make up for Paul's team. Dan moves in to playoff position while Paul digs a big hole that he'll have to find a way to get out of (maybe a trade of one of his vaunted receivers?).

Good luck to all!