Week 12 - Precisely Predicting the Propitious Playoff Participants

I was actually going to write this post last week but that Monday night game was so intense, it warranted its own article.

The only problem now is, there's basically only 7 teams that are fighting for the 6 playoff spots. While not completely eliminated, anyone who is 4-7 basically needs to win out, make up big point differentials, and pray for teams to lose. 3-8 teams need to wait until next year.

But for the 7 teams left, knowing one of them will be going home is rough, as all 7 have solid teams. So which team is going to be the odd team out? Which 2 teams will secure the bye? And who is fading and gaining steam at just the right time? Let's take these questions one at a time.

Odd Team Out: Come At The King Best Not Miss

I hate writing about my own team but I couldn't avoid it here. The rest of the season schedule for Simon is the worst of any team. He plays Chris (1st), Mike (6th but 2nd most PF), and David Y (4th but 3rd most PF). He probably has the biggest chance of losing out which doesn't bode well for his chances. Had he won one of his two nailbiters (GG to Dan and Jung), he would have been much more comfortable and probably would have been able to absorb a 3 game losing streak going into the playoffs. But now only a game ahead of Mike and Rich, a back to back seems unlikely. I guess everybody was truly ready to come at the king.

Top 2 Teams: Najee in your bahjee 🍆 (currently 2nd) and Fe-Brees (currently 3rd)

Both of these teams have extremely easy schedules to close out the year. Chris, currently in 1st, has been fading a bit as he faces Simon, Mike, and Jung to end the season. Outside of that matchup with Chris, Jung gets Cho (8th) and Eric (11th). Jon has an even easier path as he faces Dan (9th), Eric (11th), and Rich (7th). But something else makes me think Jon is going to be sneak into the top 2

Hottest Team: Fe-Brees

I don't know if he's the hottest team or if he's just got the hottest player but this season, that might be enough. We've seen RBs carry teams to championships in years past (Shaun Alexander, LT, Derrick Henry) and this year looks like one of those years. Now granted, one RB can't do everything but it's not like Jon's team is devoid of talent outside of JT. Montgomery is a borderline RB1 with the volume and schedule he has and while his WRs are a bit more boom or bust, he can rely on Rodgers and Stafford to rain fire from the QB position. Nobody is going to want to play this team in the playoffs

Honorable Mention: BEST TEAM

Mike's team has been hit with some injuries and unforeseen poor performances .But now that everyone is back and clicking, take a look at this lineup. Mahomes is looking like Mahomes again and that means he's a threat to drop 50 each week. His floor is definitely lower but that ceiling is still there. With Russ back, Lockett becomes dangerous again. Thielen is still the WR 1A or 1B on a Minny team that somehow still has a chance in the NFC. Waddle and Cooks can be deployed based on their matchups and they're both the WR1 on their respective teams. CMC is back and healthy and the time off may actually help him keep his legs through the fantasy postseason. Cincy didn't know how to use Mixon in the first 5 or 6 games but the last 3 games have seen him truly be a borderling RB1/2. Finish off the starting lineup with a rejuvenated Ertz on one of the most dangerous offenses in the league. Mike has a good chance at keeping the Mahomes streak alive (in case you didn't know, every team that has drafted Mahomes since he became the full time starter has won the league).

Fading Team: #winnable

Chris's team has looked unstoppable a lot of weeks. That's why he's in first place. But his team relies a bit too much on explosiveness and some of that looks to be fading for some of his key players. Kupp has still been great but he's regressed a bit on his TD production, which changes his scores from the high 20s to the high teens. Brady is starting to focus more on winning rather than gaudy stats so his 35+ outbursts are turning into consistent 20-something performances instead. Hopkins and CeeDee are both playing in offenses that like to spread the ball around so while they remain elite talents, the range of their production varies wildly. Now, none of this is to say that Chris's team sucks. But when your last 3 performances only netted you 89, 86, and 95 points, I'd say that that's not a team that anyone is afraid of in the playoffs.

Honorable Mention: Najee in your bahjee 🍆

What? Didn't you just say this team was going to be a top 2 seed? And he's won 5 in a row. Yes, I understand but let's take a deeper look at that win streak. 3 of those wins came against non-playoff teams and he only averaged 102.86 points per matchup, hardly a worldbeating score. While Najee and Davante are locks to be great and Chase has been a pleasant surprise. the talent drops off quickly. Russ hasn't been able to regain his form since his injury and Carr has dealt with too much drama to focus on being a great QB. His 3rd WR spot is a little shaky and Swift has been unbelievable but it's still hard to trust anybody on the Lions in the playoffs, even if it's just fantasy playoffs. I don't think Jung's team is an easy out but compared to some of the others in the hunt, I don't think his is as imposing.

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone and good luck to all!

Week 11 - Another Crazy Monday Night

Man, Monday night games sure are fun. Unless you lose. Then it's not as fun. But once again, we had some intense finishes in matchups this week, with 2 ending with a margin of less than 2 points. Let's break them down from least to most exciting:

6. Rich vs. Mike

The only matchup that didn't have any Monday night players was actually a thriller on Sunday night. If Mahomes had been able to put up a 60 spot with a few more kicks from Butker and a Waller injury, we could have seen one of the most ridiculous comebacks ever. But the gap Rich built during the day was too big to overcome.

5. David Y vs. Eric

Before: David up 35.1

Final: David wins by 28.4

Eric had a huge deficit to overcome but with Aiyuk regaining form recently and Higbee an end zone threat, it looked like this could be a possibility. But alas, game script was determined in the first quarter in what had to be one of the shortest football games in history (it ended in under 3 hours). The 49ers ran the ball more than 40 times and Higbee, even though he had multiple opportunities, couldn't finish his catches. A matchup that should have been more intriguing lost its appeal before halftime.

4. Dan vs. Chris

Before: Dan up 26.9

Final: Dan wins by 8.2

Dan was up a solid amount with 2 players left on Chris's squad. Unfortunately for Dan, one of these players was Kupp, who could make up that deficit on his own. The other was the Rams defense who just added Von Miller and was probably ready to go and wreak havoc on non-elite QB, Jimmy G. Well, Kupp did his part, adding 122 yards on 11 catches. All the Rams needed to do was limit the 49ers to 13 points or less, sack him 4 times and generate a couple turnovers. Instead, they got trounced by the 49ers run game, only sacked Jimmy once, and couldn't get the 49ers to turn over the ball. The game script nobody expected came to fruition, resulting in a rare loss for Chris.

3. Cho vs. David K

Before: David K up 33.52

Final: Cho wins by 14.58 (MONDAY NIGHT COMEBACK)

Honestly, the game script favored David. Gay hadn't had many opportunities and probably wouldn't as the Rams were trying to close a big deficit and OBJ was on a limited snap count due to just joining the team. David absorbed Kittle's first TD and even Deebo's rush TD. All that was left was for the 49ers to run the clock out. Officially, he lost the lead in the 3rd quarter on a short pass to Deebo. But he still had a small chance if there was a fumble or negative yards. Instead, Deebo caught a 40 yard TD (we'll cover this play later) that put this matchup away for good before Gay added an unnecessary FG (more to come on this one too) to pour salt in the wound. David K must hate Mondays more than the rest of us.

2. Simon vs. Paul

Before: Simon up 14.3

Final: Simon wins by 1.02

My goodness was this close. Simon needed every single one of those 14 points he had built up on Sunday to hold off Jimmy G. With Darrell Henderson completely phased out of the game due to the Rams playing from behind, Simon just had to pray that Jimmy G wouldn't get 21 points. The game script was actually favorable as they continued to run the ball over and over. But in the 4th quarter, after the Rams stopped the 49ers on 3rd down, Simon walked away to tend to his children, expecting a punt from the 49ers. Instead, they went for it on 4th and 6 and not only did they convert, it became a TD, adding 7.6 points to Paul's score. At this point the matchup was within 2 points. Thankfully for Simon, after the TD, the 49ers didn't attempt another pass. Although Simon got hemorrhoids from squeezing his butthole as he barely hung on, it was a small price to pay for a fantasy win.

1. Jung vs. Jon

Before: Jung up 13.54

Final: Jung wins by 1.72

Jung had to have expected to lose. Jung had a pretty poor showing on Sunday (<82 points) and Stafford just needed to put up 14 points to put away another win for Jon. And then a pick. And then a pick six. All of a sudden, Stafford was at negative points and the 49ers were eating the clock away. The bad news is, when a team is down, they're going to throw the ball more. Eventually Stafford got his first TD. And while they went 3 and out over and over an in the 2nd half, there was a drive near the end of the game where the 49ers were sitting back in a shell and allowing the Rams to move the ball. It seemed inevitable that Stafford would continue to throw, score a TD, and eventually make up the few points that Jon needed to win. Then all of a sudden, on 4th and goal from the 19, they... kicked a FG?? In a 24 point game, they kicked a FG?!?! Now I understand that the chances of converting on 4th and 19 is slim to none but if you're not just running the ball to kill the clock, what's the harm in going for it on that play? This one baffled me. But Jung didn't care. He had survived.

ONE FRIENDLY REMINDER: The trade deadline is this Saturday so all trades must be accepted by 11:59PM that day (I don't know what time zone but I think it is Pacific).

Good luck to all!

Week 10 - MOTW

 We've officially crossed the halfway mark of the NFL season, although we're even further along in our fantasy one. With only 5 more weeks until playoffs, look out for a playoff prediction column next week. In the meantime, we look at two of the teams trying to stay in the hunt...

MOTW

5. BEST TEAM (Mike) vs. 6. Dak 고기 ALL DAY (Rich)

Two teams currently in the playoff race. One will move to 6-4 and build an extra game cushion from falling out of contention and even possibly compete for the bye. One will fall to 5-5, one game closer to the 4-6 teams that are trying to steal a playoff spot in the last few weeks of the season. Mike's team has been ravaged by missed games so he needs every win he can get until his team is healthy again. Rich has been a bit unlucky (4th most PA) but has some great matchups this week to try to extend his win streak to 2 games.

Key Players on Bye: 

Mike - Brandin Cooks (WR2), Joe Mixon (RB1/2)

Rich - None

Key Injuries: 

Mike - Kareem Hunt (RB2)

Rich - Chase Edmonds (RB2)

QB: Mike ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Rich

I don't believe in this narrative of Mahomes's demise. I think there are concerns that Kelce can't get open, teams are taking the deep ball away from Hill, and that nobody has emerged as a viable WR2 for this offense (#freeJoshGordon), but in a divisional matchup that they need to win, I think Mahomes comes through. He'll need to for Mike to stand a chance against Dak playing against a terrible Atlanta team that he should thoroughly dominate to bounce back from a terrible showing against the Broncos (but even in that terrible real-life showing, he put up 22 fantasy points).

WR: Mike ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Rich

It speaks to Mike's team's depth that he can lose somebody like Cooks and still be competitive at the WR position. Lockett gets Wilson back this week and Thielen and Waddle are WR1s or WR1A/B in their respective offenses. Rich has 3 WR1 or 1A/B's as well so this should be a high-scoring position battle. The interesting fight will be between Jefferson and Thielen; whoever gets more love from Cousins this week might decide this matchup.

RB: Mike ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Rich

My goodness. Mike is down Mixon AND Hunt. How is he supposed to compete in this category? Thankfully he got CMC back which helps bring some power to the position (EDIT: this was previously a green circle all the way on Rich's side before Mike but CMC in). It's kind of ridiculous that Melvin is his RB4 when everyone is healthy. Zeke (who should dominate a weak Falcons D) and either AP (who should be in even better shape and more prepared) or D'Ernest (who will be a true workhorse back if Chubb can't play) will be a formidable matchup and I expect this to be a wash.

TE/K/DST: Mike ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Rich

This is a bit TBD based on who Rich picks up for his defense (best options may be a reinvigorated NE, a Broncos team playing at home, or the Packers if Wilson doesn't play). No matter who he picks, the Cardinals may be the best defense to own this week against a horrendous Panthers offense that can't move the ball at all and prefers to give it to the opponents. On the flip side, Ertz has been great for the Cardinals but Waller should feast in a matchup against the Chiefs, especially with no more Ruggs. Kickers seem like a wash, just like this overall matchup.

Winner: Rich, by a hair

Man this one is close. The green circles tell the story as none of them lean one way or the other (obviously this is my assessment, others may disagree). I'll pick Rich just because there's a little more certainty and higher floor to his team. I think certain people on Mike's team (Mahomes, Lockett, Ertz) need to buck an ongoing trend in play to really match up against Rich's team. While I think Mike's ceiling is slightly higher, Rich's floor is miles ahead.

Good luck to all!

Week 9 - How Did I Do?

We're midway though the season and with 6 regular season games to go, everyone is still in it. Yes, if you're 2-6 you probably need, at a minimum, to go 5-1, but I'd say that until you get that 8th loss, you're not 100% out. No team has remained undefeated to this point and 6 teams still have a shot at fighting for the bye. Even with all this drama, there wasn't a clear an obvious MOTW for the week so what I've decided to do is go back on my post-week 1 predictions and see how I did. I've taken the week 1 information and taken a snippet of my analysis and we'll judge how close I was to actuality on a scale of 1 (WTF were you thinking) to 5 (I'm a clairvoyant).

BEST TEAM

5th Round, Adam Thielen - BOOM: 9 catches, 92 yards, 2 TDs

Outlook: Steal that'll continue to pay dividends

...getting 10+ targets a game and recording over 100 receptions on the year...

Rating: 4

The WR16 by total and WR13 by average, Thielen has been the consistent force he's been in previous years. He's got 43 catches and 471 yards through 7 games (already had bye), which puts him well on pace to break 100 catches. He's not quite at 10+ targets but I don't think Mike's complaining about 8.4 a game.

Scary Terry McScorin

3rd Round, Terry McLaurin - BUST: 4 catches, 62 yards

Outlook: Will not perform at the pre-season expectation of WR1/2

...I don't think McLaurin will really be able to live up to his pre-season expectations as a top 15 WR...

Rating: 5

Granted I cheated a little bit on this one since I got to see Fitzpatrick go down in game 1, but Terry has been WR17 on total and WR21 by average so far this year. While this isn't terrible production, Terry was supposed to be top 15, if not top 12 this year, hence his draft position in the third round. While he's not a long way off (1.65 ppg away from WR15), a 3rd rounder was steep price to pay for a middling WR2.

Trey Lance Refrigeration

1st Round, Derrick Henry - BUST: 17 carries, 58 yards, 3 catches, 19 yards

Outlook: May not be as dominant as past years but this was just a bad game

...He won't put up 2k rushing yards, but he will still be a solid RB1...

Rating: 3

So I have to give myself credit in knowing that Henry wasn't going to struggle this season. However, Henry was on pace to easily break 2k yards and not just be a solid RB1 but be THE RB1. He outpaces every RB by a huge margin in total or average. The sad news is that due to his injury, his fantasy season may be over, tanking Eric's season.

richard's cowboys

1st Round, Ezekiel Elliott - BUST: 11 carries, 33 yards, 2 catches, 6 yards

Outlook: Still a mid-RB1 but inability to get involved in passing game still a concern

...with the defense needing to worry about 3 solid receiving options, the lanes will open up...

Rating: 5

The RB10 by total and RB7 by average (taking out CMC and Jordan Howard due to their small sample size), Zeke has been a solid first round pick, scoring below 10 just once since that first week (and even that was 9.3 points). However, the pass game concerns are still lingering, averaging less than 3 catches and 20 yards per game, capping his ceiling.

#ridethewave

4th Round, Cooper Kupp - BOOM: 7 catches, 108 yards, 1 TD

Outlook: Probably his best game of the year

...for the rest of the season, I'll take Woods over Kupp...

Rating: -1?

How wrong was I on this one? Literally the WR1 by total or average. 6 games over 20 points, only 1 single digit game, and that first game has been his 6th game so far this season (out of 8 games). Woods hasn't been bad either in a revitalized Rams offense, but Kupp is 10 ppg clear of running mate. Kupp is providing such good value, he might carry Chris to his first ship (much to the chagrin of Jon and David K).

Football is Life

2nd Round, Calvin Ridley - BUST: 5 catches, 51 yards

Outlook: Life without Julio is tougher, but it's one bad game

...I expect Ridley to brush this one off and still finish as a WR1 by the end of the season...

Rating: 1

WR1 feels like a long way off at this point. We thought all of the targets vacated by Julio would be absorbed by Ridley and Pitts, with the majority going to Calvin. But CPatt's emergence and the Falcons generally sucking has really hampered his ability to produce. He hasn't had a week over 16 points and due to personal matters, he's already missed 2 games, with the potential to miss more. The WR54 by total and WR31 by average, Ridley looks to be one of the bigger busts of the year.

Fe-Brees

7th Round, Aaron Rodgers - BUST: 133 yards, 2 INT

Outlook: Rodgers won't finish as a top 12 QB... unless he's traded

...I really believe he's trying to lower his value so that he will be attainable by a potential contender...

Rating: 2

So it turns out Rodgers wasn't part of a conspiracy... he just had a really bad game... but now, with all this COVID drama, maybe he actually IS part of a conspiracy, just a different one... The crazy thing is, by average, he's actually not a top 12 QB (sitting at QB13 at the moment). By total he's QB8 but missing games due to COVID is sure to drag that down. In the end, my prediction may be right after all.

Jacked Up!

1st Round, Aaron Jones - BUST: 5 carries, 9 yards, 2 catches, 13 yards

Outlook: Hinges on what happens with the other Aaron but the outlook is poor

...Jones will face stacked boxes and negative game scripts...

Rating: 1

So this was a derivative of the conspiracy above so with that one blowing up in my face, this has almost no chance of being correct. Jones has been the RB4 by total and RB10 by average. I will say that his biggest issue has been consistency. He has 3 games below 10 points, making him hard to trust as a true RB1 every week. But even with those risks, he's still easily a top 16 RB.

David Y Team

3rd Round, Mike Evans - BUST: 3 catches, 24 yards

Outlook: Somehow Evans went from WR1 to WR3 on his own team in 3 years

...I foresee a very difficult year for Evans, maybe not even being startable (a top 36 WR)...

Rating: 1

Tom Brady continues to torment me by making my prediction flop once more. Surprisingly, AB, Godwin, and Evans have all been top 25 WRs thanks to the free-flowing and efficient TB offense. The hard part may be picking which receivers are going to pop in which weeks, but all 3 are not just startable but cornerstones to the teams that own them. As the WR11 by average and WR6 by total, Evans is still a superb fantasy piece. 

Justice Beaver

1st Round, Saquon Barkley - BUST: 10 carries, 26 yards, 1 catch, 1 yard

Outlook: He won't live up to his 1st round billing, but he'll finish as a top-24 RB

...he'll develop a more solid floor [...] but he'll never quite get to the expectations people have of him...

Rating: 3

This one is tough to rate. In the games he's played and finished, he's improved every week as NY ramped him up from his injuries, peaking at 27 points in week 4. But the injury bug hit him again and now we're uncertain of when he will return. I will say that when he's healthy, he actually may be able to finish as an RB1 and if he's able to return this or next week, it might be what propels Dan from last place into the playoffs (or more realistically, to the consolation bracket win).

Najee in your bahjee

3rd Round, D'Andre Swift - BOOM: 11 carries, 39 yards, 8 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD

Outlook: His rushing stats won't be pretty but thankfully Goff loves to check down

...could be an RB1 in the right situation but he should still finish in the top 24...

Rating: 4

I may not have been bullish enough on Swift after his solid first game. The RB12 by average and RB8 by total, Swift has been a solid back-end RB1 thanks to his ability to catch the ball and the Lions always playing from behind (literally. They're 0-8). While his rushing numbers don't look great, (11 attempts and 36 yards), his receiving numbers have carried his fantasy value (RB league leading 6 catches and 52 yards a game). Swift's numbers are basically a WR36 and a split backfield RB36 combined; individually, those numbers look atrocious but combined, they create a building block for a playoff team.

Good luck to all!