Week 16 - Championship Week

While I hate writing MOTWs about my own team, I must say, I love the chance to write it on championship week since it means I actually made it to the big money game.

We'll do a slightly different variation of the typical MOTW:

MOTW

1. Microgement vs. 3. Quarantine @ Mahomes

The key to this matchup is pretty simple: How much of Mahomes's greatness will Hill and Kelce negate? The best way to stop a dominant QB on the other side is to own their top target (look no further than Diggs negating half of Allen's points last week in Simon's win over Jon). For Dan, he owns the top TWO weapons on the Chiefs, the most explosive offense in the league. Let's see a week to week breakdown of the comparison of Mahomes vs. Hill + Kelce points:

1: 26.44 vs. 27.1 (102.5%) [H2H matchup]

2: 31.48 vs. 38.8 (123.3%)

3: 48.00 vs. 30.4 (63.3%)

4: 24.24 vs. 22.9 (94.5%)

5: 33.70 vs. 37.6 (111.6%)

6: 24.60 vs. 23.0 (93.5%)

7: 14.00 vs. 19.1 (136.4%)

8: 46.64 vs. 44.7 (95.8%)

9: 38.88 vs. 49.5 (127.3%)

11: 25.52 vs. 44.36 (173.8%)

12: 37.28 vs. 63.6 (170.6%) [H2H matchup]

13: 21.32 vs. 35.4 (166.0%)

14: 22.62 vs. 48.2 (213.0%)

15: 31.86 vs. 33.2 (104.2%)

As you can see, in almost every week, they have negated all of Mahomes's contributions (week 3 being the only major outlier). Worse for Simon, it looks like Mahomes is focusing on them even more as the season comes to a close. In every week since week 9, they have combined to surpass Mahomes's points every week. But it's not like benching Mahomes is an option for Simon, he's probably his MVP (or second only to Diggs).

So what does Simon need? He needs a WR and TE combination to outplay Wilson or Mayfield at the same ratio that Hill and Kelce outscore Mahomes. The best combination for this may be Hopkins against a depleted 49ers defense that he already dropped for 20+ points earlier in the season, and Kittle or Henry having a blowup game, catching AT LEAST one score. Now, this is easier said than done and Simon will probably be looking to get a bit of a boost by winning the special teams battle, as well as the backfield battle, as his RBs are slightly better than Dan's (although Fournette has a ridiculous matchup that should make him and RB1).

Winner: Honestly, it's too close to call. Dan has clobbered Simon in 2 previous matchups but each week in fantasy starts from scratch. Whoever wins will be a well-deserved champion.

Good luck to all!

P.S. David K and Biggie duke it out for the right to a $25 gift card. People, don't forget to keep competing, even if you don't make the playoffs!

SPECIAL PAYOUT NOTE:

I will be updating the table below to keep everyone reminded of the payout structure at the given moment in case there is an abrupt end to the season. Anything grey and crossed out are no longer possibilities and the highlighted text is what the current payout would be if an abrupt cancellation were to happen:

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after <10 regular season games: All money is returned to owners.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 10-12 regular season games: Top 6 seeds (playoff teams) receive $150, Bottom 6 seeds receive $50.

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 13 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $250, Seeds 4-6 receive $175
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $300
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $550 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $50 each. (If the season is cancelled before games are played this week. Otherwise, prize payouts will be paid)
Season shortened prior to start of season 11+ games: We will have to adjust to however Yahoo changes things. If there is a way to adjust it myself, I will work backwards and make room for the playoffs as we currently do (3 of the last 4 weeks, not including the final week of the season). For example, if the season is cut to 12 games, I would try to adjust it so that the regular season is weeks 1-8, and the playoffs are weeks 9-11.
Season shortened prior to start of season <11 games: With the randomness of fantasy football, any fantasy regular season that is less than 7 weeks is too short to determine a proper winner. If this happens, I will return HALF the money back to all participants and we will be playing the shortened season for a smaller prize (Total prize pool of $600). 

Week 15 - Semi-finals

We're here. 14 weeks done, 4 teams left, fighting for 3 money spots. As my team is still involved in the playoffs, instead of straight MOTWs, we will be looking at key players in each of the semi-final matchups.

1. Microgement vs. 4. BEST TEAM

Dan's quest towards back to back championships continues while Mike is trying to live up to his team's name. Will Mike take a step towards his first championship? Or will Dan get a chance to defend his crown?

Studs: Swift vs. Henry

It seems unfair to compare a rookie RB in a non-favorable game script to arguably the best late season rusher in the league. But these two backs facing off against each other this week get to face terrible run defenses that should propel both to RB1 status. Swift's ability to stay involved in the passing game allows him to hold value even if they fall behind. But no matter how poorly they're doing, the Lions will continue to have to run the ball to keep the defense honest and the Titans are one of the worst at stopping the run.

Duds: Hill vs. Hill

Tyreek Hill a dud?? Seems impossible but hear me out. The Saints are most likely going to shadow him with Lattimore and bring help over the top. The bad news for Mike is that a lot of the production Hill would normally have should end up going to Kelce, who is also owned by Dan. For Mike, the QB on the other side of the KC v. NO game is going to struggle. KC shut down a much better talent in Lamar Jackson so I don't see how Tayson Hill is going to have much more success. He's going to have to throw a lot to keep up with the Chiefs offense and I think his TOs are about to spike.

2. Fe- Brees vs. 3. Quarantine @ Mahomes

Studs: Akers vs. Taylor

Both these rookie running backs get a couple things that should make them RB1s for this week's matchup:

1. Recent control of their backfield as the top running option
2. Ability to catch balls out of the backfield
3. Games they should win, resulting in many attempts
4. Bad defenses that give up tons of yards and points

Expect them to cancel each other out.

Duds: Cook vs. Diggs

Now, Cook could and Diggs could still finish in the top 12 at their position, just based on volume alone. But if you take a closer look, you'll see why they could also come away with less than desired performances. Cook faces a stingy Chicago defense in a fight for the playoffs. In the last game against the Bears, he couldn't break 100 yards on 30 attempts. He should be involved in the passing game in what should be a brawl for playoff positioning, but he might not have the 25+ points we've become accustomed to expecting from him. As for Diggs, the Broncos defense has actually been more solid than their record would show. And with him blowing up on Sunday night, you can expect the Broncos to create a game plan to limit his touches. He should still get a decent amount of volume, but I just don't know if the quality of those opportunities will allow him to have a big day.

Good luck to all!

SPECIAL PAYOUT NOTE:

Going forward, I will also be updating the table below to keep everyone reminded of the payout structure at the given moment in case there is an abrupt end to the season. Anything grey and crossed out are no longer possibilities and the highlighted text is what the current payout would be if an abrupt cancellation were to happen:

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after <10 regular season games: All money is returned to owners.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 10-12 regular season games: Top 6 seeds (playoff teams) receive $150, Bottom 6 seeds receive $50.

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 13 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $250, Seeds 4-6 receive $175
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $300 (If the season is cancelled before games are played this week)
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $550 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $50 each. (If the games this week are completed)
Season shortened prior to start of season 11+ games: We will have to adjust to however Yahoo changes things. If there is a way to adjust it myself, I will work backwards and make room for the playoffs as we currently do (3 of the last 4 weeks, not including the final week of the season). For example, if the season is cut to 12 games, I would try to adjust it so that the regular season is weeks 1-8, and the playoffs are weeks 9-11.
Season shortened prior to start of season <11 games: With the randomness of fantasy football, any fantasy regular season that is less than 7 weeks is too short to determine a proper winner. If this happens, I will return HALF the money back to all participants and we will be playing the shortened season for a smaller prize (Total prize pool of $600). 

Week 14 - Playoff Predictions

 A week 13 that couldn't really bring much excitement delivered on not bringing any excitement. The playoff standings are EXACTLY what I predicted they would be last week, although Justin Tucker's missed FG allowed the standings to play out that way (otherwise, Mike would have taken the 3 seed by less than a point). We'll see if this has any bearing on the playoffs.

Let's get into playoff predictions:

Champion: Jon

With Hockenson's recent bump in targets and production and Andy Dalton bringing enough juice on offense to make the run game a threat again, does Jon's team have a weakness? His WR depth all of a sudden looks like it could be an issue if there's an unexpected injury but if you throw the best 9 best players out there, there's not many teams that can compete with Jon's complete roster (he only needs Zeke to be an RB2!!).

Runner-Up: Dan

Dan's biggest advantage against every opponent is having a 4th receiver at the TE spot. If he were a receiver, he'd be the WR3. The difference between him and 2nd place Darren Waller (not counting Kittle due to his missed games) is larger than the difference between Waller and 7th place Goedert. Dan lost fuller but Coutee may be able to fill the void as he did on Sunday against a good Colts defense. His RBs still don't inspire the most confidence and Wilson hasn't been as otherworldly as he was at the start of the season, but good luck picking out a true weakness on this squad.

Dark Horse: Mike

I guess I'm indirectly predicting a winner of this week's 4-5 matchup but Mike's team still has all the components to be a championship team. Roeth and Taysom both have pretty fantasy friendly schedules, his WRs go 6 deep, and he has 2 legitimate number 1 RBs in Henry and Chubb. I don't think I need to remind people of Henry's late season heroics from years past. While other teams are tiring out and getting ready for the playoffs, this is the time for Henry to shine. Let's just say I'm happy I don't have to face him early on.

This is no disrespect to Cho, Eric, and myself, who are all previous champions. But I'd say 2 of the 3 best contenders for the ship this year are ones who haven't tasted the glory of winning the league yet. Maybe 2020 can end on a positive note for one of these teams.

Good luck to all!

SPECIAL PAYOUT NOTE:

Going forward, I will also be updating the table below to keep everyone reminded of the payout structure at the given moment in case there is an abrupt end to the season. Anything grey and crossed out are no longer possibilities and the highlighted text is what the current payout would be if an abrupt cancellation were to happen:

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after <10 regular season games: All money is returned to owners.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 10-12 regular season games: Top 6 seeds (playoff teams) receive $150, Bottom 6 seeds receive $50.

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 13 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $250, Seeds 4-6 receive $175 (If the season is cancelled before games are played this week)
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $300 (If the games this week are completed)
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $550 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $50 each.
Season shortened prior to start of season 11+ games: We will have to adjust to however Yahoo changes things. If there is a way to adjust it myself, I will work backwards and make room for the playoffs as we currently do (3 of the last 4 weeks, not including the final week of the season). For example, if the season is cut to 12 games, I would try to adjust it so that the regular season is weeks 1-8, and the playoffs are weeks 9-11.
Season shortened prior to start of season <11 games: With the randomness of fantasy football, any fantasy regular season that is less than 7 weeks is too short to determine a proper winner. If this happens, I will return HALF the money back to all participants and we will be playing the shortened season for a smaller prize (Total prize pool of $600). 

Week 13 - We Made It

Last week, Dan almost made me pay up with a 200 point showing, and worst of all, he did it against me. Unfortunately, Russell couldn't take advantage of a terrible Philly secondary and Dan only scored in the 170s... only...

Somehow, we've made it through the regular season of the fantasy playoffs. Although there have been some interesting situations (more Tuesday games than I can count, a Wednesday afternoon game, and a WR playing QB that was a TERRIBLE fantasy player), it was a pretty normal fantasy seasons. Some unfortunate injuries, just like every year, derailed a few teams (CMC, Saquon, Dak, OBJ) but overall, COVID didn't really seem to make or break the season for anybody.

I was hoping for an intense MOTW to end the season but with Biggie 70 points behind Cho, the chances of him winning AND outscoring Cho by 70 is slim to none. Even the top 2 seeds look pretty locked unless Jon loses and Mike wins as Mike probably can't catch up on points. Here's the way the teams COULD go into the playoffs (I assume anything greater than a 60 point difference will not be made up in 1 week) with my predicted scenario bolded:

1: Dan or Jon

2: Dan, Jon, or Mike

3: Jon, Mike, or Simon

4: Mike or Simon

5: Eric or Cho

6: Eric or Cho

Once the seeding is completed, I'll do a playoff preview for next week's post.

For the people in the bottom half of the bracket, don't forget to compete for your $25 gift card. David Kim is on a mission to win it as he's climbed from 12 to 8 in a matter of weeks. We'll see if he can keep this hot streak going and not walk away empty handed.

Good luck to all!

SPECIAL PAYOUT NOTE:

Going forward, I will also be updating the table below to keep everyone reminded of the payout structure at the given moment in case there is an abrupt end to the season. Anything grey and crossed out are no longer possibilities and the highlighted text is what the current payout would be if an abrupt cancellation were to happen:

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after <10 regular season games: All money is returned to owners.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 10-12 regular season games: Top 6 seeds (playoff teams) receive $150, Bottom 6 seeds receive $50. (If the season is cancelled before games are played this week)
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 13 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $250, Seeds 4-6 receive $175 (If the games this week are completed)
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $300
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $550 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $50 each.
Season shortened prior to start of season 11+ games: We will have to adjust to however Yahoo changes things. If there is a way to adjust it myself, I will work backwards and make room for the playoffs as we currently do (3 of the last 4 weeks, not including the final week of the season). For example, if the season is cut to 12 games, I would try to adjust it so that the regular season is weeks 1-8, and the playoffs are weeks 9-11.
Season shortened prior to start of season <11 games: With the randomness of fantasy football, any fantasy regular season that is less than 7 weeks is too short to determine a proper winner. If this happens, I will return HALF the money back to all participants and we will be playing the shortened season for a smaller prize (Total prize pool of $600). 

Week 12 - Thankful

While we do have some key matchups that could determined playoff seeding (me and Dan, Jon and Jon Sucks, Biggie and Mike, we will instead do a special Thanksgiving edition on who or what, each team can be thankful for.

Dan: Clinching a playoff spot

Thanks to an 8-1 start, Dan is the only team guaranteed team in the playoffs. Staking himself such a big lead in the standings should allow him to maintain an ever important first round bye, especially if he wins this week.

Jon: Team rounding into form

After pulling off what could have been a disastrous trade for Zeke, it looks like Zeke will be just fine under Dalton. Now equipped with 2 top 10 backs, 3 top 25 WRs, 2 top 10 QBs to rotate through, Jon may be the favorite to win his first league championship this season.

Mike: Derrick Henry in second halves

It's a good thing Mike lives in Korea so he's probably not watching many of the games live. Derrick Henry can be frustratingly ineffective in the beginning of games but almost always turns it up in the second half, sometimes scoring double digits just in that half alone. Mike is looking to ride the bulldozer back straight to his first ship.

Eric: Believing in Jon Gruden

Taking the two key players in an offense where the potential was not quite known, Eric staked his entire team's fate in the hands of Chucky. Thankfully, Gruden has turned it into a competent offense, battling for a playoff spot, carrying Eric's team to the fantasy playoffs as well.

Cho: Belichick deciding to ride with Damien

Losing Saquon could have derailed his entire season but Cho didn't give up, continuing to scour the waiver wire for serviceable backs. He landed on some servicable RBs through various weeks (Mike Davis, Moss) but Harris has actually been a borderline RB2 since he took the job from Michel, Burkhead, and White. Usually Bill doesn't commit to one back but I guess Harris has something special, good news for both the Patriots and Cho.

Biggie: KoR3An PrYdE 4 LyF

Biggie's team has literally been carried by 2 Koreans (or I guess 1 and 1/8?): Kyler and Koo. A miracle that he may actually make the playoffs after losing his 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th round picks to injuries, trades, and ill-advised drops, Biggie is grateful just to be in the playoff race.

Paul: Being able to blame bad luck

Paul has had 1403.86 points scored against him this season. He's had people score 161.22, 155.06, 137.16, 135.38, 134.20, and 133.02 points against him. He's lost to his last place brother and even when his opponent scored under 100 points, he lost by 6, losing at the last second on a Mahomes TD. Hopefully this bad luck will disappear along with all of 2020.

David Y: Being able to blame injuries

David's team actually is actually underperforming a bit based on his PF but injuries have definitely affected his team's performance. Losing your top WR and RB for multiple weeks can destroy any team but especially when that RB is CMC and you were the first pick. Losing pick 1 and 25 means your team is relying on players drafted 47th or later to carry your team throughout the season. Hopefully his injury luck next year will be a little bit better.

Chris: Somehow competing without making any roster moves

The fact that Chris has 3 wins is baffling. One of those wins was when Rodgers and Adams combined to put up nearly 80 points (of course, against bad luck Paul). The fact that he's not in last place despite only making 3 moves is fascinating. Maybe he can salvage the season in the consolation bracket.

David K:Not being last

In a huge, nail-biting matchup yesterday, David was able to knock off Jung, escaping the number 12 spot for at least one week. Subject to much of my mockery on this blog, David has rolled off 2 wins in a row, including one against Dan's first place team. Let's see if he can take this momentum into the consolation playoffs and get that gift card.

Jung: Savoring his week 3 win against Dan

It seems like ages ago but when the Cowboys were healthy, Wentz hadn't regressed into Mitch Trubisky, and he still had Nuk and Zeke, his team had the look of a legitimate playoff contender. He had knocked off Chris and Dan to start off 2-1 and the potential looked limitless. Since then, Jung hasn't had a win but he can always claim that he knocked off Dan, a feat that only he and David K can claim so far this season.

Happy Thanksgiving to each and every one of you! I hope you have a safe and enjoyable time with whomever you are celebrating with!

Good luck to all!

SPECIAL PAYOUT NOTE:

Going forward, I will also be updating the table below to keep everyone reminded of the payout structure at the given moment in case there is an abrupt end to the season. Anything grey and crossed out are no longer possibilities and the highlighted text is what the current payout would be if an abrupt cancellation were to happen:

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after <10 regular season games: All money is returned to owners.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 10-12 regular season games: Top 6 seeds (playoff teams) receive $150, Bottom 6 seeds receive $50.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 13 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $250, Seeds 4-6 receive $175
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $300
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $550 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $50 each.
Season shortened prior to start of season 11+ games: We will have to adjust to however Yahoo changes things. If there is a way to adjust it myself, I will work backwards and make room for the playoffs as we currently do (3 of the last 4 weeks, not including the final week of the season). For example, if the season is cut to 12 games, I would try to adjust it so that the regular season is weeks 1-8, and the playoffs are weeks 9-11.
Season shortened prior to start of season <11 games: With the randomness of fantasy football, any fantasy regular season that is less than 7 weeks is too short to determine a proper winner. If this happens, I will return HALF the money back to all participants and we will be playing the shortened season for a smaller prize (Total prize pool of $600). 

Week 11 - MOLW and MOTW

David K might be out of the playoff race but he's made the last 3 last weeks interesting for the playoff teams fighting for a bye.

MOLW:

Dan vs. David K

David had what looked to be a relatively comfortable 21.62 point lead going into Monday night with only a receiver left for Dan against a formidable Bears defense. I thought to myself "as long as Jefferson doesn't catch a TD, David should be okay." Jefferson started the night off with a couple decent chunk gains to gain first downs but wasn't really a threat to David K until late in the third when a HUGE 50+ yard gain (basically a TD) got Dan within striking distance of stealing the win. Jefferson got them to within the 10 yard line to get the TD that would earn Dan that win. Unfortunately for Dan, Thielen picked up his 2nd TD of the night and the Vikings stopped throwing the ball as they protected a lead. David K gave Dan only his 2nd loss of the season but allowed myself, Jon, and Mike to get in position to knock him further down the standings and lose his bye. (Interestingly enough, Dan has only lost to Jung and David K, the 2 lowest ranked teams in the league, each of who do not average 100 ppg).

So the MOTW of this week features 2 of those teams that will be fighting for that #1 playoff seed (with apologies to Cho and Biggie in a huge fight for 6th place).

(One last note: the playoff race is basically down to 7 teams, although Paul, David, and Chris could theoretically make it if Biggie loses this week and they run the table. If Biggie wins this week, the playoff field is all but set with just the positioning to be left to be determined. This seeding is even more important than most years due to the possibility of a cancelled season)

MOTW
2. BEST TEAM vs. 3. Fe-Brees

This is literally for at least the #2 seed, possibly the #1 seed if Dan also falters this week. That bye is ever so tantalizing for the reason stated above, as well as being able to relax for week 14 while other managers have to duke it out in the wild card round.

Studs: Thielen vs. Cook

This is an interesting answer to the question: How will the Vikings try to destroy the Cowboys? Will they demolish a secondary that hasn't been able to stop any QB, even making Mayfield and Daniel Jones look like competent QBs? Or will they run them to death, against a front 7 with more holes than my 14 year old Jordan shimmer shorts? I think somehow the answer will be both as Thielen and Cook should both feast. The matchup may be decided by who feasts more.

Duds: A.J. Brown vs. Godwin

Duds were tough to pick this week but A.J. Brown will most likely be shadowed by Humphrey, resulting in a bigger day for Corey Davis than Brown. That game is expected to be a slog, with 2 run dominant teams in a low scoring game. Godwin on the other hand should be able to avoid the wrath of Jalen Ramsey but with AB, Gronk, and Mike Evans, I'm worried about his overall targets, not just in this game, but for the rest of the season.

X-Factors: Anderson vs. Watson

Robby Anderson is quietly having a monster year. 5th in yards, 5th in receptions, 5th in targets, and 9th in 20+ yard plays. He's cooled down after a scintillating start but if he can find his form again against a weak Lions secondary, he could explode for a 20+ point performance. Watson surely misses Hopkins, but he's still been a force. If you take out last week's game in Cleveland, which was played in a hail-tornado-cane, he's posted 28+ points every week since week 5. Last year, he dominated the Patriots defense but the 2 previous times he's thrown as many INTs as TDs. In what can be seen as a down year for the Patriots, that allowed Joe Flacco to re-live his glory days as a Raven, we'll see if Watson can bounce back from a disappointing showing in Cleveland.

Key Players on Bye:

Mike - None (McKinnon and Brown have not been factors for Mike's team in recent weeks)

Jon - Allen - Thankfully Jon has Watson, in a relatively favorable matchup, to cushion the blow of missing Allen. If anything, it might save him the headache of needing to choose between the two.

Winner: Jon

Honestly, this week is very favorable for Jon. None of his players have a truly terrible matchup and should be involved in very high scoring affairs. Much of Mike's production is based on the Tennessee offense and while they should be able to move the ball, their ceiling is limited against a top tier defense. He's got enough talent to compete but I see his grasp on the bye slipping away this week.

Good luck to all!

SPECIAL PAYOUT NOTE:

Going forward, I will also be updating the table below to keep everyone reminded of the payout structure at the given moment in case there is an abrupt end to the season. Anything grey and crossed out are no longer possibilities and the highlighted text is what the current payout would be if an abrupt cancellation were to happen:

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after <10 regular season games: All money is returned to owners.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 10-12 regular season games: Top 6 seeds (playoff teams) receive $150, Bottom 6 seeds receive $50.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 13 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $250, Seeds 4-6 receive $175
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $300
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $550 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $50 each.
Season shortened prior to start of season 11+ games: We will have to adjust to however Yahoo changes things. If there is a way to adjust it myself, I will work backwards and make room for the playoffs as we currently do (3 of the last 4 weeks, not including the final week of the season). For example, if the season is cut to 12 games, I would try to adjust it so that the regular season is weeks 1-8, and the playoffs are weeks 9-11.
Season shortened prior to start of season <11 games: With the randomness of fantasy football, any fantasy regular season that is less than 7 weeks is too short to determine a proper winner. If this happens, I will return HALF the money back to all participants and we will be playing the shortened season for a smaller prize (Total prize pool of $600). 

Week 10 - MOLW and MOTW

Another week, another terrible Monday night for David Y.

MOLW:

David Y vs. Biggie Cho

David's letdown was worsened based on what happened Sunday night. He took an 86.8-79.24 lead into the big Saints Bucs game. He had RoJo, Cho had a kicker, a defense, and a running back to go on Monday night. Things were looking a bit grim when RoJo only pulled out 3.3 points in a game the entire TB offense faltered. But thanks to their entire team failing, Cho's ancillary players were only able to score 5 points. David took a slender 5.86 point lead into Monday night. With the potential return of Sony Michel, it looked like Damien Harris would have a pretty hard time reaching the total he needed.

The night started off great for David. Harris really had to work hard for his yards, unable to gain chunk yards against a reinvigorated Jets defense. He even fumbled a ball (that he didn't lose) which got him on Bill's bad list, ceding more carries to Burkhead than normal. But after a nail-biting first half, with 5:34 left in the game, Damien Harris hit a 21 yard run, his biggest of the night, to put Cho up by 1.24 points. Furthermore, David couldn't even hope for a fumble to take back the lead as Harris got hurt on the play and left the game for good. Poor David has had 3 Monday night games go against him.

MOTW
7. Koobra Kai vs. 8. The Glory Hogans

Biggie did get destroyed last week, as we expected, and New England couldn't capitalize on Flacco's first start of the season to put up the 45 points he needed for the win. But he did make up a lot of ground in the PF race, putting him in position to actually contend for a playoff spot. Paul is on the precipice of being eliminated for good. At 3-6, 1 more loss pretty much spells doom for him. This is a do or die week for him.

Studs: Kirk vs. Brown

Christian Kirk has been the large beneficiary of defenses focusing on Deandre Hopkins. This should be the case again this week as White follows Hopkins around the formation, Kirk should be able to exploit a secondary that just got ripped apart by the Seahawks. Marquise Brown has been waiting for a breakout game and this could be it. While the Ravens will never be a pass happy team, the Patriots secondary allowed Flacco to look like a star again. If Harbaugh doesn't have at least 6-9 targets in store for Marquise, I would be surprised.

Duds: Green vs. Tennessee

Although Cincy should be throwing a lot, I can see Haden shadowing Green to take him out of the game. Will Burrow have enough time to get the ball to any of his downfield threats? I don't think so. I'm seeing a huge Tyler Boyd game this week. On the flip side, while the Titans matchup against the Colts looks like a great one on paper, I expect the Colts to play conservative, run first football in this matchup. The Titans defense hasn't been great all season and there's no reason to think that they'll be more prepared on a short week.

X-Factors: Mixon and Carson

2 running backs returning from injuries. Both were slated to be low end RB1s this year but injuries have limited their raw point totals. When they do play, they have been solid producers, owning their respective backfield in touches. As both are still projected to be game time calls, this could be the position battle that decides the matchup.

Key Players on Bye:

Biggie - Koo - I know losing a kicker to a bye week usually doesn't matter but Koo is arguably Biggie's second most consistent player behind Kyler. He's only posted a sub-8 point game one time all season. 4 of the last 5 weeks have been 12+ points, the mark of a solid WR2 or RB2. 

Paul - Hurst, Ridley - Losing 2 pieces of the Falcons receiving squad to bye is tough and could be the difference in what should be a close matchup.

Winner: Paul

While Biggie has been trending up, I think the Brees, Kamara, Carson combo is too much for Kyler to overcome on his own. I can see Biggie's receivers putting up slightly higher numbers than Paul's, but the RB situation should be a massacre in favor of Paul. Paul brings Biggie down to .500 and if Cho or Eric falter this week, the race for the 6 seed will be coming down to the wire.

Good luck to all!

SPECIAL PAYOUT NOTE:

Going forward, I will also be updating the table below to keep everyone reminded of the payout structure at the given moment in case there is an abrupt end to the season. Anything grey and crossed out are no longer possibilities and the highlighted text is what the current payout would be if an abrupt cancellation were to happen:

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after <10 regular season games: All money is returned to owners.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 10-12 regular season games: Top 6 seeds (playoff teams) receive $150, Bottom 6 seeds receive $50.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 13 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $250, Seeds 4-6 receive $175
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $300
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $550 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $50 each.
Season shortened prior to start of season 11+ games: We will have to adjust to however Yahoo changes things. If there is a way to adjust it myself, I will work backwards and make room for the playoffs as we currently do (3 of the last 4 weeks, not including the final week of the season). For example, if the season is cut to 12 games, I would try to adjust it so that the regular season is weeks 1-8, and the playoffs are weeks 9-11.
Season shortened prior to start of season <11 games: With the randomness of fantasy football, any fantasy regular season that is less than 7 weeks is too short to determine a proper winner. If this happens, I will return HALF the money back to all participants and we will be playing the shortened season for a smaller prize (Total prize pool of $600). 

Week 9 - MOLW and MOTW

There were no Monday night matchups quite as intense as the previous 2 MOLWs but Biggie was once again involved in an upset win that came down to the wire.

MOLW:

David Y vs. Biggie

Biggie had a 10 point lead and Wayne Gallman while David had RoJo and Gronk. From the get go, it looked like RoJo was going to have a big game until he lost the faith of the entire coaching staff when he fumbled on what actually should have been an incomplete pass. Fournette carried every ball of the first half after that and Gronk was nowhere to be seen. On the other side, Gallman eventually scored a TD that put Biggie up by almost 20 points. However, David staged one last comeback. Gronk scored a TD and RoJo got involved again but Daniel Jones couldn't convert a 2PT conversion that would have sent the game to OT and given David a chance at the TD or 2 catches and 49 yards to put him over the top. 

The fact that Biggie remains at 5-3 and in the playoff picture has to irk some people (specifically, Cho, Paul, and David Y). He has a negative point differential and the 2nd lowest PF in the league. But as the NFC East has shown us this season, a win is a win and all you really need to do is make the playoffs to make some noise. We'll see if Biggie's luck can continue again this week.

MOTW
3. Fe-Brees vs. 6. 1 1/2 koreans

I was a bit hesitant to choose this matchup as the MOTW since I think it might be a blowout and because Biggie's matchup against Paul next week is probably a great candidate for MOTW as the loser may be eliminated from the playoff race. However, these teams sport the same record and this is a great opportunity for the winner to put a game between him and the teams pursuing a wild card spot.

Studs: Watson vs. JuJu

While Dalvin is the obvious answer here, I see a monster game coming from Deshaun. This is the same Jacksonville secondary that got torched for 359 and 3 TDs 3 weeks ago by.... Deshaun Watson. Expect him to clean up the turnovers and potentially throw for more yards in this rematch. JuJu has finally gotten involved in this offense again and he gets a Dallas secondary that hasn't been able to stop anyone. The #1 WR in the past 3 games have posted 6-78-1, 7-90-1, 2-86-2 (ridiculous efficiency) lines and there doesn't really seem to be any reason why JuJu can't be the next one to post a similar line.

Duds: Zeke vs. Kelley

Zeke faces a tough Pittsburgh front that has been stingy on defense all season. On top of that, expect stacked boxes, just like against the Eagles, as they'll have a new QB in the backfield. Kelley hasn't been able to take over the bell cow role and has been the 1B running back behind Justin Jackson. Although the matchup looks easier on paper, I see more of a shootout where Herbert will be asked to try and win the game with his arm.

X-Factors: Hockenson vs. New England

Don't be surprised if Hockenson gets 15+ targets in this one. I know. It seems ridiculous. But with no Golladay against a soft Minny defense (at least by their standards), expect Stafford to look to his big TE over and over again. New England gets a GREAT matchup against the Jets but the real reason they are the X-factor is because they play on Monday night. Biggie has pulled out 2 close wins out of his butt on Monday night. Can New England pull the third?

Key Players on Bye:

Jon - None
Biggie - Mixon, Green, Higgins - Losing his top backfield option is REALLY making me regret writing this matchup as this looks to be a blowout of the week. On top of that, he loses 2 of his WR3 rotation players... why did I pick this matchup?

Winner: Jon

Just for fun, let's look at Jon's 3 lowest scores:

97.12, 102.08, 116.12

And Biggie's 3 highest:

119.52, 111.42, 109.2

My God. Take mercy on Biggie. I think Biggie is going to need a 50 point game from New England.... just to lose by 10. 

Good luck to all!

Week 8 - MOLW and MOTW

One piece of news: I will be changing the time for trade review from 2 days to 1 day. I believe this will help people who are trying to trade facilitate the trade more quickly and not hold up players while waiting for confirmation. As a reminder, I will be letting basically any trade go through since the agreement between two teams on what looks to be an uneven trade could be due to different valuations by the different managers. Unless there is obvious collusion (which will then be investigated), expect all trades to be allowed.

On to our ridiculous MOLW

MOLW:

Jung vs. Biggie

It all came down to Monday night where Jung just needed 5.7 points from Jimmy Graham. He got oh so close with 5.6 points but the most ridiculous part of that was when Jung was down .52 points, Jimmy caught the ball and proceeded to gain.... 0 yards. Afterwards, he didn't see the field again. However, losing on Monday night was probably better than the alternative: Biggie actually got a stat correction and New England got credit for a blocked kick that earned him an extra 2 points. Imagine going up by a point on Monday night, only to lose it to a stat correction later in the week.

MOTW
1. Microgement vs. 2. BEST TEAM
Was there any other choice? The top 2 teams face off to stay at 1 loss. Both teams have proven they belong here and want to get one step closer (as well as create a cushion) to the bye. Who will reign supreme?

Studs: Wilson vs. Brown

I'm pretty sure any week Dan is in the MOTW, Russell will be his stud but this week should present a great opportunity. A weakened SF defense is exactly what Russell is probably looking to destroy as a bounce back game from last week's loss. Expect 3+ TDs. AJ Brown is entering the elite conversation as any game he plays, he becomes a target monster. Against a Cincy defense that got torn apart by Baker Mayfield, expect a monstrous outing.

Duds: KC offense vs. Carr

KC's offense doesn't suffer from a lack of talent. Instead, they might have too much. As we saw in last week's win over the Broncos, their own success could be the biggest limitation. Expect this game to be over at halftime, limiting the opportunities for Kelce and Hill. Carr faces a pesky defense that can get at the QB. Carr doesn't fare well under pressure and this could be a sub-20 point game for him.

X-Factors: Jefferson vs. Tucker

Justin Jefferson will get involved early and often as the Vikings try to keep up with the Rodgers-led Packers offense. He's become a favorite of Cousins and while the Packers secondary isn't awful, the sheer volume of targets could make for a huge day. Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh is always a bloodbath, usually being decided by the slimmest of margins. I could see a FG battle brewing and see Tucker coming out with 15+ points.

Key Players on Bye:

Dan - Fuller: Losing his WR2/3 will hurt. We'll see if it's the deciding factor.
Mike - None

Winner: Mike

I think the explosivity doesn't show up for Dan's team this week and when push comes to shove, Mike has a more talented fantasy roster. Wilson is the only piece of Dan's team that scares me but top to bottom, I'll have to pick the team with more opportunities for big games.

Good luck to all!

Week 7 - Power Rankings

 For those who thought I forgot to post yesterday, I did not. But when I looked at the matchups and saw no MOTW potential and realized the game on Thursday was Eagles v. Giants, I knew I could wait until later to post an article.

So instead of a MOTW this week, let's break down the league into tiers of teams (Teams listed in a tier are not ranked. They are listed in order of their actual rank)

True Contenders (No major weaknesses, championship potential)

2. BEST TEAM

With the return of AJ Brown and Nick Chubb to return shortly, Mike's team looks ready to go on a monster run. After this week, Henry, Thielen, Brown, and Ben will all have their byes behind them so the impact of missing players should be minimal. The one area he may look to improve is TE but other than that, he just needs his players to stay healthy.

4. Fe-Brees

With 4 of the top 30 wide receivers, 2 top 15 RBs, and 2 QBs that could both finish in the top 8, Jon has a wealth of options at his skill positions. Similar to Mike, his TE situation could be a little bit better and he should be scouring the waiver wire for defenses more often, but if his team can stay healthy, he may be the favorite to win it all.

Playoff Threats (One major hole or a few minor holes, may need a little luck to win it all)

1. Microgement

No disrespect to last year's champ and the runaway leader this year both in wins and PF, but a lot of his run has been fueled by some ridiculous boom performances (Justin Jefferson, Will Fuller, Russell Wilson). The problem with this is, most players will regress to a more normal mean. This is why Jefferson and Fuller aren't regarded as top 10 wide receivers. However, if Russell can keep this up, maybe none of this matters. This reminds me of Brady in '07 or Manning in '13 where they could literally carry a mediocre team by scoring 40 points a week. Not to say that Dan's team is mediocre: he still has plenty of top end talent in Tyreek and Kelce and the other players are no slouches either. But his backfield is a huge area of concern with no true RB1s. If he can keep his magic touch on roster moves for 10 more weeks, maybe he repeats as champ.

5. Jon Sucks

Eric's shakiest pieces are at WR3 and RB2, with an additional question at the man under center. Wentz has performed admirably and has had some great weeks but you wonder if a QB, who has had injury issues in the past, who is playing under pressure on almost every play will even make it through the season. Moore, Claypool, and Fulgham are all interesting options but none of them exude must-start vibes. At RB, Montgomery and Robinson are definitely getting the opportunities to be a high-end RB2 but we'll see if they can do more with the touches they're given.

Dark Horses (Underperforming or unlucky teams with a better outlook ahead)

6. The Glory Hogans

Paul's team has been one of the most consistent teams in the league, scoring over 100 points in every matchup so far. He has a question mark at WR3 and QB (Is Drew Brees even a startable fantasy QB anymore?) but his RB depth and elite TE help to make these questions moot. His team got hammered by byes (Brees, Kamara, Carson, Jackson last week, Gaskin, Brown this week) but that should just make the latter half of the season that much easier. We'll see if he can upgrade his team by dealing one of his RBs or just rides it out with the current squad.

9. David Y Team

David's been a little bit unlucky: injury to McCaffrey, Mahomes being ridiculous on Monday night. However, he does rank in the top half in the league in scoring and when he gets CMC back, should be able to climb out of the hole he's currently in. His RB2 spot was a question mark but RoJo has taken a stronghold in the backfield of an offense that's getting stronger every week. As long as he can prevent getting 7 losses before his team gets back to full strength, I can see David paving a way into the playoffs.

11. #ridethewave

Yes, we all know that Chris has been relatively MIA. However, if he plays a healthy player, even if we believe it's the wrong choice, we have to respect the manager's decision. Chris has dug himself in quite the hole but he's got 2 great, top 20 receivers (and a 3rd who is quite underrated), a decent backfield if Ekeler returns soon, and ARod leading the way with an MVP caliber season. The real question for Chris's team is whether or not he actually plays the stars needed to win.

Outside Looking In (Need major roster renovations or certain players to blow up)

7. Jacked Up!

Cho's position here isn't entirely his fault. Losing your first round pick for the season will hurt anyone's chances, especially when they were supposed to carry your backfield. Additionally, Mike Davis has been a solid fill in but his time as a bellcow back are about to end and Cho hasn't been able to find a suitable replacement. His receivers are talented but have had down years due to various circumstances, and Stafford has been very disappointing, not cracking 30 points in a game this year. I will never count a manager out who has won the league before but the climb into the playoffs is much steeper for Cho than some of the teams below him in the standings.

8. 초록불

How Biggie is 3-3 is beyond me. He only has more points than Chris and David K. His draft didn't pan out so great but it's not like he picked bad players: Julio has been injured and couldn't find the end zone (until he was traded), Juju has had his spotlight taken away from him, Bell's situation has been in flux, and Gallup has been forgotten as he has been overtaken by Lamb. Looking at previous seasons, Biggie is always active on the waiver wire so don't expect him to go away quietly without a fight.

10. Wizzeak!

Jung has had two of the most impressive stars in the league in Hopkins and Zeke but with little behind that to support him, especially melting Matty Ice, he's fallen to 2-4. Will trading Hopkins for more depth and more risk be the answer? While KC looks like a RBBC for now, someone with Bell's skillset could replicate what Hunt is doing in Cleveland and vault him into the top 20, even without being the bellcow. Parker is no Hopkins but he's a solid WR3 with WR2 potential and we'll see how the change to Tua at QB affects his prospects going forward. If Ryan can keep up last week's performance and Zeke can stop fumbling away the ball, he could find his way into the playoffs. 5 of his next 6 games are against teams that are not in the top 4 at the moment.

David Kim (David Kim)

12. DK & Pony Show

What is there to say about David's team? His team actually isn't as bad as his record and points would show. Evans has been a TD machine, Newton and Brady have shown QB1 flashes, and CEH and Kareem Hunt have been top 24 RBs. But so many points are wasted on the bench as David continues to choose the wrong players. Some decisions are easier to criticize in hindsight but others seem less defensible even in the moment. But the real question is, based on his luck in matchups this year, would playing the right choices change anything? His aggregated opponent stats would rank as the 2nd best team in the league with 782 points. I never say a team is out of the playoffs until they get 7 losses but it's hard for me to see David make his way back this year.

Good luck to all!

Week 6 - MOLW and MOTW

Sorry for missing the week 5 post. I could come up with an excuse but I'll get ridiculed either way by David Kim so I'll just leave it at that.

First, let's recap 2 of the matchups of last week that went down to the wire on Monday night:

Jon vs. Dan

In what should have been the matchup of the week, had I not forgotten, Jon and Dan were fighting for first place in a tightly contested matchup. Dan took just under a 30 point lead into Monday night but Jon still had Josh Allen to get him the win. It didn't start off great with a interception on the first drive but after his 2nd TD to Yeldon in the 4th quarter while staring at a large deficit, a garbage time comeback seemed possible. After a Titans score, the Bills would get the ball back but Josh Allen wouldn't see the field again. Thanks to a Andre Roberts fumble, Jon's hope dissipated with about 5 minutes left in the game.

David K. vs. Mike

David is still looking for that elusive win and he took a double digit lead going into Monday night but Mike still had Derrick Henry left to play. It didn't look good for David. But the game started and Henry was having a hard time moving the ball. At the half, he had 24 yards and a TD, averaging less than 2.5 yards per carry. It wasn't likely but David could still hold onto the hope that the Titans could keep him at bay. Of course, that hope only lasted until the 4th quarter when Derrick Henry got carry after carry to ice the game, culminating in a TD to seal the deal. David continues to look for his first win.

MOTW
8. The Glory Hogans vs. 9. David Y Team
Both teams are 2-3 and have faced a bit of bad luck up to this point. Paul has had the most points scored against him so far this season and David has had to deal with the loss of CMC and the ridiculous Mahomes game on Monday night. Who gets back to .500 and, most likely, back into the playoff picture?

Studs: Ridley vs. Lamar

Ridley gets to pick on a Vikings defense that can't stop anybody. With the Vikings offense putting up points as well, expect Ryan to throw early and often to Ridley to stay in the game, especially if Julio doesn't play again this week. Lamar gets to face a Philly defense that's reeling from injuries. The one concern is that this game may be a blowout as Philly can't move the ball as the Ravens defense pours through their decimated offensive line, but I think 3 quarters of Lamar is enough to put up 30 points.

Duds: Samuel vs. Singletary

Samuel suffers from the problem of "who is going to throw me the ball?" There's 3 QBs on the SF roster and it's entirely possible that none of them are NFL starting caliber QBs. Also keep in mind that he may see some Jalen Ramsey and that Donald will make it hell for Jimmy G, Mullens, or Beathard. Singletary gets a decent matchup against a Chiefs defense that can be run on, but I just can't see the Bills running much in a game that should decided by balls thrown in the air. Additionally, the return on Zach Moss isn't going to increase the number of touches he gets.

X-Factors: Somebody not on the roster yet vs. Indy

As noted below, Paul has a ridiculous number of players on bye. He'll have to make a saavy pickup or two and that could be what propels him to victory this week. As for David, Indy has sneakily been the top fantasy defense, relying on forcing turnovers and controlling the line of scrimmage. While they won't be scoring touchdowns at the current rate, they get a relatively easy matchup against Joe Burrow and the Bengals where they should be able to score double digit points.

Key Players on Bye:

Paul - Brees, Carson, Kamara, Jackson - How Paul will find a QB and a defense without dropping any of his bye week players will be an interesting challenge. I've also never seen someone missing their RB1, RB2, and RB3 in a given week without injuries playing a factor.
David -None

Winner: David

Paul is missing too much top tier talent and the backfield advantage, even without CMC, has to swing in his favor. The QB gap should be sizable too, as Paul will be starting somebody off the scrap heap. Paul does have a few studs that may give him hope in pulling off the upset but in the end, he'll be looking at 2-4 and focusing on week 7.

Good luck to all!

Week 4 - COVID Hits

And there it is. Only took us 4 weeks for COVID to alter our fantasy football landscape. The Steelers and the Titans may have to take an impromptu bye week this week, affecting many matchups this week, especially since many teams are dealing with the rash of injuries that has ravaged the league.

Since the most obvious MOTW this week includes my team, and I don't write about my team unless it's the playoffs, let's look into the impacts this Steelers Titans bye week has on the season.

Teams with Players who actually matter:

- Jon Lee: James Conner (RB2 on depth chart)

In a big week for Jon as he fights to keep his place atop the charts, he will be without his starting RB. The good news is, he has a solid backup in Antonio Gibson and if Pittsburgh makes up this game, it's one less bye week to worry about in the future. Even if he loses this week, his team has performed well and being at .500 through four games won't derail his chances at the playoffs.

Impact: 5 (out of 10)

Panic: 1 (out of 10)

- Biggie: Juju (WR2 on depth chart)

Losing Juju hurts but he's got a more than serviceable backup in Preston Williams who should be involved in a shootout against Russell "75 TD season" Wilson. This may be a hot take but with the Steelers Titans matchup being a potential ground and pound game, Williams may have been the better play this week anyways.

Impact: 3

Panic: 1

- Mike: Derrick Henry (RB1 on depth chart), A.J. Brown (WR3/4 on depth chart), Rapist (QB2 on depth chart)

Poor Mike. Although he probably would not have played the rapist, he does lose 2 key position players in a matchup to fight for the right to stay in the top half of the standings. With a weaker PF, every win will matter a lot more to Mike. The good news at WR is that Mike has been operating without AJ Brown anyways and his depth is legitimately 6 WRs deep. RB is slightly dicier where he replaces a top 5 back in Henry with Darrell Henderson. At least Henderson is trending upwards.

Impact: 8

Panic: 3

- Cho: Dionte Johnson (WR4 on depth chart), Jonnu Smith (TE1 on depth chart)

Cho is looking to crawl out of the cellar back to .500 this week but he'll have to do it without his star TE, who is having a breakout season. The good news is, TE is one of the more volatile, lower point producing positions unless you have an elite option. And you could do worse than Gronk as your fill-in. Nonetheless, when you're in the bottom half, every missing option feels twice as impactful.

Impact: 2

Panic: 3

It looks like this issue happening early in the year won't disturb too many teams and instead it will vault the trade value of some options who have had their bye weeks early. Let's hope this is an aberration and that other teams and players are more cautious going forward so we can continue our season.

Good luck to all!

Week 3 Observations

First off, to everyone who was expecting a post last week, I apologize. I got super busy with work and prepping for a mini-family vacation to the beach that I did not get a chance to post anything. If that excuse isn't good enough, too bad.

As for this week, I think it's still slightly too early to do a MOTW but I just wanted to make a few observations as well as explain how MOTW's may change slightly going forward.

First, the observations:

- At least through 2 weeks, no matchup has been decided due to the new rule changes. A large number of receptions hasn't pushed a potential loser into a winning position nor has a missed kick ruined someone's week. But I am looking forward to the first nail-biter that comes down to someone's kicker just not needing to kick one but getting their 29 yard chip shot blocked.

- The old adage in our league was "If you score 100 points, you had a pretty good week. If you score 110 and lose, that's just unfortunate." Based on the first two weeks (which, btw, seem like really volatile scoring weeks but I'm probably wrong) it looks like we'll have to change those scores to 125 and 130, respectively. I'm sure as we get more week to week data, those numbers will settle into place (my prediction is about 115 and 125 to account for about 30-32 receptions per week + the small chance of negative points from kickers) but I kind of miss just aiming for the round 100 number.

- I can't wait to see the first time somebody breaks 200 points. That seems absurd to me but just last week, Dan's team hit 161 with some missed opportunities like Edelman not scoring, Ingram with a low output on the ground, and Fuller disappearing with a big fat zero. A couple more things lining up right and we could have seen something special. If someone does hit 200 points this season, I'll get them a small surprise gift.

As for the update to MOTW's going forward, I want to do a look back at the real MOTW of the previous week, based on how close the matchup was, if there were any extraordinary plays or performances that altered the outcome, and what it means for the standings in our league. This probably means forward looking MOTW's are shorter but I think it helps to reflect on the previous week as well.

Last note: this last week had so many injuries that created havoc on the waiver wire. Just a friendly reminder that while we still have to act on injuries, we shouldn't hope for them. Not judging here, as I used to hope for injuries all the time, but let's try to remember that these are people before they are pawns in our quest for league domination.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

2020 - Focusing on the Positives

This past year has been one of the weirdest I've ever lived through. In my 10 years of working, I've never been home for this long (6 months and counting). And I could sit here and talk about COVID or BLM but I think we've gotten enough of that from all our other media sources. Instead, let's focus on some other things, especially, positive things. Since the last football season ended:

- Jon welcomed a baby girl into the world

- David Y got married (just 3 days ago actually and was the reason we couldn't draft on Monday)

- Paul got engaged

If there's anybody I missed, I do apologize but it also probably means we haven't talked in a while. Don't be a stranger and reach out any time!

Some of you are probably thinking "WTF is going on with Simon?" But this is all an introduction and segue into the column, which is going to be a quick draft review (don't have time to go into too many details) but the caveat is that it's all going to be positive things about each team. Just think of this as my yearly draft review column if Jon was writing the column and he owned every team. So without further ado:

1. David Y Team (David Y)

Favorite Pick: Lamar Jackson, 2nd round

Do I think he might regress a bit? Yes. But I still don't know how defenses are supposed to stop a guy who can just juke or outrun all your defenders. The Titans just dared him to throw in the playoffs and attacked the box aggressively but not every team is fit to do that. And who knows how much further he's come as a passer?

Favorite Sleeper (Picked in round 9 or later): Mike Gesicki, 10th round

Obviously we love the name (If David's team isn't Shibal Gesicki by next week, I might have to change it for him). But once Tua takes over, this Jimmy Graham-lite TE should be a big part of turning around the offense in Miami.

2. Jacked Up! (Brian)

Favorite Pick:Robert Woods, 4th round

They lost Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley and really didn't gain any replacements so I think Woods and Kupp are in line for huge workloads. While Kupp does better on the underneath routes, I think Woods will come to be Goff's go to option.

Favorite Sleeper: Jalen Reagor, 14th round

It's kind of ironic that in what's been labeled the greatest wide receiver draft class in a long time, none of them look to be huge fantasy impacts from day 1. Well, between Alshon's injuries and DeSean's antisemitism, I think Reagor will be the number 1 option here soon enough.

3. Wizzeak! (Jung) [probably my favorite team name this year. "Adios, turd nuggets!"]

Favorite Pick: David Johnson, 4th round

This is a ridiculous value pick for a guy who was a top 5 option just a few years ago. Sure, he hasn't quite impressed since then but injuries and terrible schemes are the bigger issues than his talent. He only has to fend off Duke Johnson and with Nuk gone, DJ could become Watson's best friend.

Favorite Sleeper: Ian Thomas, 15th round

No more Olsen means it's time for Thomas to shine. He should get plenty of targets from a conservative Teddy.

4. The Glory Hogans (Paul)

Favorite Pick: Chris Carson, 3rd round

Carson is one of those guys you set and forget. His floor is a RB2 and his ceiling could vault him into a top 10 finish. While Seattle has a great QB, they're still a run first team and Carson fits the mold well.

Favorite Sleeper: Kerryon Johnson, 12th round

For all the hype around their new rookie and the signing of AP, we forget that Kerryon is still the lead back in Detroit. He never got a full workload, and still may not, but he's been a productive back nonetheless.

5. Fe-Brees (Jon)

Favorite Pick: James Conner, 3rd round

Sure, he had a bad year last year. But with the rapist back under center and no major competition for his starting job, he may be closer to his 2018 version than his 2019 version.

Favorite Sleeper: Sony Michel, 14th round

We're still not 100% sure of the effects of his injury and how Bill is going to split up this RBBC, but Sony has been solid in his first 2 years. If he can come back healthy, are Burkhead and White really going to prevent him from being the RB1?

6. DK vs. Everybody (David K)

Favorite Pick: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, 1st round

If you can't tell, I'm all in on the Chiefs this year. And this includes their rookie with great hands in the backfield. The Chiefs' biggest problem (hard to find one from a team that won the Super Bowl) last year was red zone efficiency and CEH could be the answer in both the run game and the screen game.

Favorite Sleeper: Cam Newton, 11th round

We don't know the status of his shoulder but Cam + Bill should make for a very interesting season. If he doesn't have great numbers, let's at least hope for an entertaining season.

7. BEST TEAM (Mike)

Auto-drafted

8. Suzy Y Team (Eric)

Favorite Pick: Keenan Allen, 5th round

The fact that one of the most consistent receivers and best route runners dropped to the late 5th round is ridiculous. Even if Tyrod and Herbert are no Rivers, Allen should put up WR2 numbers based on his talent alone.

Favorite Sleeper: James Robinson, 13th round

While I hate Eric for taking him, I must applaud his choice. Whatever Robinson showed was enough for the Jaguars to let go of Fournette, a top 5 pick. Sure, the Jaguars will suck. But let's see what this guy can do with his 20 touches a game and a bit of Minshew Magic.

9. #ridethewave (Chris)

Favorite Pick: Austin Ekeler, 2nd round

Somebody I wanted before eventually selecting Sanders, I think Ekeler is going to do just fine, as he showed during Gordon's absence last year. With the added boost of our .5 PPR, his receiving skills will be that much more valuable.

Favorite Sleeper: Aaron Rodgers, 9th round

I know the situation isn't ideal for him but if being slighted on draft day got him an MVP and a Super Bowl win, I wonder how he'll take the latest move of the Packers drafting his successor.

10. fresh cream cakes (Biggie) [shout-out: go visit Tous Les Jour in Wicker Park to get some of your own fresh cream cakes!]

Favorite Pick: Juju Smith-Schuster, 3rd round

I think Juju was one pick away from going to Dan and us having the best Office x FF crossover of all time with the team name of "Voodoo Mama Juju". But yeah, Juju is going to be great. He has the sexual assaulter back to throw him deep balls and he should be a solid WR1.

Favorite Sleeper: Sterling Shephard, 9th round

Someone has to catch balls in NY, right? I keep hearing how Daniel Jones is going to be good but none of his receivers are going in the top 6 rounds. Seems odd to me...

11. Microgement (Dan) [please never stop coming up with these names]

Favorite Pick: Tyreek Hill, 1st round, Travis Kelce, 2nd round

He not only neutralizes Mahomes when he plays against him, he's also guaranteeing 150 yards and a TD every week from 2 positions. And that's just the floor. Watch out for KC.

Favorite Sleeper: Justin Jefferson, 9th round

Replacing Diggs will be a tall order but with the extra attention paid to Adam Thielen, expect this very talented receiver to be a useful spot starter in fantasy.

Good luck to all!