Week 16 - Championship! And Consolation Championship!

It's finally here. What we've all been waiting for. And while the majority of the league is upset that they're not playing for anything this week, two teams are battling it out for the largest prize we've ever seen in this league. Let's take an in depth look at the positional battles and see where each team can seize an advantage and who is most likely to take home the $1,200.

For the purpose of this analysis, the trailing symbol indicates a high (^), medium (=), or low (v) option. So for example, a RB1v is a low tier RB1 while a RB2^ is a high tier RB2. The low tier RB1 is still better for fantasy purposes than the RB2^. This just helps us create more tiers for us to evaluate. The ranks are based on consensus fantasy experts rankings but will not be the holy grail for determining advantages. All ranks are up to date as of Wednesday.

QB:
Mahomes (1) QB^
vs.
Jackson (10) QBv, Ryan (11) QBv

Advantage: Cho
There's no contest here. Even with a non-plus matchup, Mahomes has been the best QB in the league. Simon needs to play the right QB to limit his damage.

RB:

Zeke (1) RB1^, Howard (24) RB2v, McGuire (23) RB2v
vs.

Saquon (4) RB1^, Chubb (5) RB1=, Carson (8) RB1=

Advantage: Simon
If they were playing 3 RBs, Simon would have a great leg up. His best RB is always a top 5 play, even after a down week against an underrated defense, and his other 2 RBs get great matchups against the Bengals and Chiefs. But Zeke will keep this one close as he gets a terrible Bucs line in a must-win game for the Cowboys. Both Howard and McGuire have beatable matchups as well so this shouldn't be a blowout as the rankings suggest.

WR:

Evans (13) WR2^, Davis (23) WR2v Moore (26) WR3^, Hamilton (47) WR4v
vs.

Hill (6) WR1=, Diggs (11) WR1v, Landry (24) WR2v, Pettis (28) WR3^

Advantage: Simon
Once again, Simon has slightly better depth but when you look at the top 3, the gap shrinks. Hill and Diggs are boom or bust and they're likely to be shadowed by Griffin and Slay, respectively. That could allow Evans to make up some ground, even against a stingy Cowboys defense. Davis faces a tough Redskins secondary that may result in Henry pounding the rock over and over but Moore has an excellent matchup against a burnable Falcons D. We'll see how the loss of Cam affects him this week. If Cho chooses to go with Hamilton, we'll expect a lot of targets but hold our breath on the final results. Landry could be the game-changer depending on which version we see on Sunday: will we get the touchdown threat running down the seams or will we see wasted throws on 5 yard attempts?

TE:

Uzomah (14) TE2^
vs.

Cook (6) TE1=

Advantage: Simon
Assuming Jordan Reed doesn't make a miraculous recovery, this is Simon's biggest advantage. Cook usually bounces back from poor weeks and he just had one last week. Uzomah has shown no reason to trust him, especially with Driskel under center. We'll see if this is the matchup that allows Simon to pull away.

K:

Fairbairn (4) K^
vs.

Legatron (1) K^

Advantage: Push
Both good kickers in great game situations. Greg the Leg gets a slight boost due to playing in a dome but the Rams offense has not looked good lately. Fairbairn should get plenty of opportunities in a shootout against Philly.

DEF:

Broncos (9) DEFv
vs.

Rams (1) DEF^

Advantage: Push
The Rams are the better defense against a rookie QB and a team they've already dominated this season. However, I believe the Denver rank is WAY to low. They may be playing in Oakland but Miller and Chubb should have a field day against one of the worst offenses in the league. Expect similar double digit performances from both defenses.

Winner: Simon
It looks pretty clear cut on paper but that's why we play the games.

As for the consolation bracket, let's do a quick rundown:
- Eric is playing Josh Allen. God help him.
- Receivers are a mediocre wash
- Eric's backfield > Jung's
- Jung is playing Hooper. May God also help him.
- Slight special teams edge to Eric
Winner: Eric
Congrats on your gift card! I'll contact you after your matchup with available vendors.

Good luck to all! Thanks for another great season!

Simon Kim

Week 15 - Playoff MOTW!

What an interesting wild-card round. Paul's team didn't play bad but Cooper played the 3 receivers on Paul's team to a draw, Kittle had one of the best TE performance of the year, and Julio negated the decent showing by Paul's backfield. In the other matchup, Mike woke up to some terrible news. Reports on Baldwin looked very positive until the day of, but unfortunately for Mike, he was fast asleep in Korea. By the time he woke, Cho had rostered any receiver worth picking up (not that any pickup would have sufficed in that ugly Monday night game) and his playoff dreams were crushed.

Now, I don't like writing about my own team but I can't miss out on MOTWs now. So I'll try to be as unbiased in my analysis as we dive into the semi-final matchups. I liked last week's formula so let's keep it going this week:

MOTW 1
1. Bless'm vs. 5. Fournetflix 'n cHiLL
I'm still not sure if Biggie's name was written like that on purpose but I don't know what HLL is so I'll just assume he was doing it to be obnoxious. Simon won both regular season matchups but none of that matters in the playoffs.

Studs: Rivers vs. Fournette
Rivers struggled last week against a hapless Bengals defense. Although the KC defense can definitely ratchet up some pressure, their secondary isn't the toughest to throw on. Additionally, if Melvin Gordon remains out, Rivers will be leaned on heavily to keep up with the high-octane KC offense. He may throw a pick or fumble a ball, but the volume (expect >30 attempts) should make up for it. Fournette gets to face a reeling Redskins team that the Jaguars game plan will work perfectly against. Their run defense hasn't been great, giving up a huge game to Saquon last week, and their offense is being led by Matt Sanchez, meaning the Jaguars should be nursing a lead all game. After a poor showing last week, expect a huge bounce back this week.

Duds: Hill vs. Jones
Neither of these guys are benchable, for obvious reasons, but there are glaring issues for each player. Hill has a tough matchup against Hayward and even if he burns him, rookie sensation Derwin James should be waiting over the top to stop him. He's not 100%, dealing with wrist and heel injuries so expect the Chiefs to target Kelce and Conley more in this game. Jones faces a Chicago defense that just held Gurley to single digit fantasy points (5.8!). Now, we all know what Rodgers can do (see week 1) and that will certainly help open up some lanes for Jones but I just can't see him breaking 100 yards in this one.

X-Factors: Cook vs. Kittle
Both of these bay area TEs have been the top target in the pass game all season. While there's no question that Kittle is the more talented and better TE if all other factors are held equal, Cook gets a favorable matchup and could match Kittle's production for 1 week. If Cook can help neutralize Kittle, one of Biggie's top weapons, Simon's chances will vastly improve.

Winner: Simon
It's hard to pick against a team with 2 of the top 10 RBs and a great special teams matchup (especially if Foles plays). It will be closer than a 1 vs. 5 matchup should be, but I'm guessing Simon's team makes it through.

MOTW 2
2. Orange MFN Charizard vs. 3. Jacked Up!
Cho should feel lucky to even be here. His team performed terribly but he squeaked by thanks to a last second injury report and Melvin Gordon's slowly healing MCL. But it's not a fluke that he's in the smis. David will have his hands full keeping Cho at bay even though he crushed Cho by 30 in week 4.

Studs: Woods vs. Mahomes
Woods gets to face a defense that just gave up 200 yards and 3 TDs to Amari Cooper. While Cooks will probably be the main beneficiary, the Eagles secondary has been decimated, meaning all options are threats to score. The Rams will be looking for a statement win after being embarrassed by the Bears. Mahomes is almost always a stud, but in a divisonal game, at home, to clinch the division, against a middle of the pack defense that he torched for 4 TDs in his first game as a pro? Let's pencil in 30.

Duds: Both backfields
The backfield star power is blinding between these two teams. On one side you have Charizard and the White Wonder. On the other, you got Zeke and Lamar Miller... Okay, Lamar clearly isn't in the same league as the others but he's still have solid RB2 in a matchup where the game flow should favor him. However, I foresee tough days for everyone involved. For Kamara, Carolina has actually been pretty solid against running backs and he's struggled for consistency the last 3 weeks. While the road curse doesn't affect Brees as much in warm weather or divisional games, Brees's struggles could be passed on the Kamara. McCaffrey has been the linchpin of the Panthers offense, scoring exactly 22.1 points in each of the past 2 weeks. However, he faces one of the best run defenses in the league and I'd expect Cam to get more involved as the Panthers look to slow things down, keep the ball in the hands of their playmaker, and grind out a win as they try to get back into the playoff race. Zeke faces an underrated Indy defense and I actually see them struggling to win this game (upset alert!). Zeke won't get shut out completely but I would not be surprised if he's held under 15 points. And lastly, Lamar Miller had a poor showing last week and Blue could take more snaps than Cho would like. I don't think either backfield will bust completely but expect a lower score than they've been showing all season.

X-Factors: Tampa Bay
Winston and Evans play against a tough Baltimore defense in Maryland. Will Winston be able to succeed against that defense without his best WR? If he can, David kills 2 birds with one stone: playing a great QB while producing a dud on the other side. But if Winston's 3 TD game all goes to Evans, the advantage goes to Cho as he's able to negate a QB with a WR.

Winner: David
Cho's players have terrible matchups and I don't think Mahomes does enough to carry the entire team to week 16. The TE position is a matchup I see being very lopsided which should give the edge to David.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Why Didn't They Make the Playoffs? Plus a Shortened Double-header MOTW

The post-season is finally upon us and while 6 people will be fighting for the honor and prize of $1200, 6 others will be wondering where it all went wrong.

But no need to wonder! I'll tell you what went wrong right here! (Some of these are jokes so don't take them too seriously)

12. Shock the F'n World
Reason: Didn't update his team
Pretty easy to fix this. UPDATE YOUR LINEUP!

How to fix: Update your lineup!

11. David Y Team
Reason: Drafted Le'veon Bell and then held onto him for dear life
While he did make a savvy trade using Kelce earlier in the year to try and stay in the playoff hunt, he ultimately failed because he just kept on hoping that Le'veon would return. I'm sure he got some offers before he was officially eliminated and when you're falling multiple games under .500, your first priority is to get in the playoffs. At that point, the best ability in any player is availability.

How to fix: Trade away non-active players for active players. You'll have to trade them at a discount but even if they return in week 10 or 11, it doesn't matter if you're not in the playoff hunt.

10. Berries 'n Kareem
Reason: Drafted a woman-beater and relied on a 41 year old QB
Brady has performed admirably on the real gridiron but in the fantasy gridiron, he's been less than stellar. Even if you combine Fitzpatrick and Jameis into 1 QB and remove Matt Barkley's 1 game performance, Brady ended up as a QB15 during the regular season. When you have someone who has name brand cachet, you need to trade their real life value for some more fantasy value. The Kareem Hunt incident was unfortunate but that's what you get when you support assault.

How to fix: Draft people without criminal records and those who aren't past the middle of their lives

9. Kerryon MyWaywardSon
Reason: Walked under a ladder, broke a mirror, and possibly opened an umbrella inside
I've already highlighted Eric's close losses in a previous post and the only explanation I could come up with is that he's been cursed. Unfortunately for Eric, I think most of these curses last 7 years so I would stop playing fantasy until 2025 if I were him.

How to fix: I think there's some remedy where you bathe yourself in garlic. Doesn't hurt to try.

8. Afghanistananis
Reason: Didn't focus on shoring up his fantasy defense
Dan had a remarkable scoring season, ending up 4th in points scored but he missed the playoffs by 2 wins. The problem? Like the Colts and Saints of years past, while his offense was exploding, his defense couldn't stop the other teams. Look at some of the point totals he's given up: 154 to Simon, 114 to Eric, 121 to David K, 121 to Paul, 133 to Cho, 114 to Simon (again, and without a kicker). It's hard to make the playoffs when you have to score 125+ a week.

How to fix: Break the legs of the players on the teams he faces

7. Fe-Brees
Reason: Too much faith and reliance on his own team
I'm pretty sure I say this every year but Jon Lee has a problem. That problem is trust and faith in his players, even when they don't produce. David Johnson was an RB2 this year (a low-end one if you take away his one 30 point outing) but he has name brand value. If Jon had offered him for Phillip Lindsay or Aaron Jones, does the opposing manager say no? Instead, he kept believing in the putrid offense that is the Cardinals to do the right thing. Also, why he kept holding on to guys like Kenyan Drake and Royce Freeman baffles me. Neither back finished as a top 24 back. Trey Burton was TE8 for the regular season but when Jon needed him the most in the past 3 weeks, he completely shat the bed, averaging less than .6 points per contest (not a typo). The difference between Burton and TE20 is 1.6 ppg, less than the difference between Burton and TE5, Jared Cook. Maybe Jon should have started looking at higher upside players when Burton started disappearing from the offense. Lastly, Brees has always struggled in non-conference games on the road. He continued to deliver on that promise with poor showings at New York (8.58), Baltimore (20.78, not terrible but much lower than what we are used to from Brees), Minnesota (8.8), and Dallas (9.28). He did have one good game on the road against Cincy but their defense is completely putrid. Had Jon replaced Brees in one of these weeks he may have won. He lost the NY week by 9 and the Minnesota week by 36. One of those wins would have put him in the playoffs.

How to fix: Unfixable because Jon will always have irrational confidence in players he drafted.

Side note: I think it would be incredible if Chris ran the table in the consolation bracket to claim the $25 gift card after being berated all year for not setting his lineup. He'd have to beat Eric (an unlucky Gurley owner) and Dan (The best team to not make playoffs) which would just up the hilarity. Don't take your eyes off the bottom half just because they're not playing for a cash prize. They're arguably playing for an even bigger prize: not suffering humiliation.

Now let's do a cliff notes version of the two wild card games this week:

MOTW 1
3. Jacked Up! vs. 6. Just Forsett In
Previous meeting(s): Week 5, Jacked Up! by 1.28 points

Stud matchup: Zeke vs. Michael Thomas
When do we get to stop calling Michael Thomas, Michael Thomas? All the other great receivers have intialized nicknames (OBJ, AB, AJ) or go on a one name basis (Julio, Nuk/DeAndre, Diggs, Cheetah/Tyreek). Hopefully someone can come up with a good nickname after he destroys the horrendous Bucs defense. Zeke will look to match his first showing (30+) against this Philly team that seems to get destroyed by division rival RBs.

Dud matchup: Mahomes vs. Doug Martin
Mahomes??? Yes, Mahomes. Granted, he won't be held to single digits but he's going to struggle on the road against a Ravens secondary that has given QBs trouble all season long. Expect a more human effort from Mahomes this week. Martin (who will forced to play when Melvin ends up sidelined) is going against a tough Pitt run D in a game they'll be playing from behind. Expect Richard to outscore the Muscle Hamster.

X-Factors: Lamar Miller vs. Melvin Gordon's MCL
Lamar Miller started off the season in horrific fashion (less than 10 PPG until the bye week) but has scored in double digits the past 3 weeks. He could be what propels Cho's team to a victory. Mike's entire matchup (and playoff hopes) ride on the fact that Melvin Gordon will be healthy. While Ertz, Cam, the Rapist, and MT are still solid players, nobody has the 40 points ceiling Gordon has. His lack of RB depth is being exposed at the worst possible time.

Winner: Cho
This will be closer than expected, especially if Gordon plays, but with great matchups for his backfield and very good special teams situations, Cho should be able to make it back to the semis.

MOTW 2
4. The Glory Hogans vs. 5. Fournetflix 'n cHiLL
Previous meeting(s): Week 10, Fournetflix 'n cHiLL by 36.36

Stud matchup: Lindsay vs. DeShaun
Lindsay has been one of the finds of the year for Paul and he gets one of the best matchups of the year in week 14. The loss of Sanders may mean heavier boxes but he'll get more carries and targets as a trusted set of hands. DeShaun destroyed the Colts earlier in the season and should be able to do it again. If Biggie is to pull of the upset, he'll need 30+ from DeShaun and I'm sure he'll get it.

Dud matchup: OBJ vs. Fournette
These 2 1st rounders have helped these teams get here but I don't think they'll be the stars in the wild card round. OBJ has to face shadow coverage from Josh Norman and even if he gets past them, needs to get past one of the best safety tandems in the league in Haha + Swearinger. Fournette goes against an underrated Titans front 7 in a game that the Jaguars will probably be playing from behind. Expect a few more touches to go to Yeldon that Biggie will like.

X-Factors: Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
Both players get to root for the team they actually root for but Biggie gets the leg up here. The Steelers face a dying Raiders team that can't throw the long ball, arguably the biggest weakness of the Steelers. On the other hand, Chicago, who has been a top tier defense all year, faces Sean McVay's machine.

Winner: Biggie
I don't know how it's relevant in fantasy football but Biggie's playoff experience shines in this matchup. With less than ideal matchups for some of his key players, Paul will need a big week to stave off the underdog. Unfortunately, he'll come up short and re-live his week 10 horror again. Fun fact: Paul is the only one to have defeated both teams that have earned a bye this week. Hopefully he'll get a chance to repeat the feat if he gets out of this week.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim