This week, we're going to run a little exercise that may piss everybody off. This is a team that anybody could have built to dominate the league. During the draft, I'm sure you would have gotten laughed out of the room with these picks, but 8 weeks in, you would most likely be undefeated (I didn't go week by week but I have a hard time believing this team could lose) and in prime position for the playoffs
Here were the rules I gave to myself:
1) A player must have been drafted with the 12th pick of that round to be considered eligible for a round. So if a player was taken with the 11th pick in the 4th round, he would only be eligible as a 3rd round selection because the 12th team would not have been able to take him.
2) I considered performance to this point (70%) as well as potential future performance (30%) when weighing who to select (by the way, I made up those percentages). Instead of doing this purely by current rankings, I considered future outlook as well. That's why a player like Lindsay (dominating touches on all 3 downs in the Broncos backfield that's been more than competent on offense with Case Keenum) made it while a player like Breida (who has performed well but is dealing with a potential nagging injury in a QB-less offense with Mostert nipping at his heels) did not.
I'll outline the draft with their current ranking, where they were actually drafted, and who drafted them. Then, we'll examine the ideal team position by position:
Draft
1st - Adam Thielen - #1 WR - 3rd round, 2nd pick by David Y
2nd - Tyreek Hill - #2 WR - 3rd round, 4th pick by Simon
3rd - Emmanuel Sanders - #9 WR - 6th round, 10th pick by Cho
4th - Robert Woods - #13 WR - 7th round, 2nd pick by David Y
5th - Patrick Mahomes II - #1 QB - 10th round, 10th pick by Cho
6th - George Kittle - #5 TE - 7th round, 12th pick by Biggie
7th - Matt Ryan - #3 QB - 8th round, 6th pick by David K
8th - Marlon Mack - #7 RB (season average PPG) - 9th round, 8th pick by Chris
9th - James Conner - #3 RB - Undrafted
10th - DeSean Jackson - #7 WR - 14th round, 11th pick by David Y
11th - Phillip Lindsay - #16 RB - Undrafted
12th - Chicago - #2 DEF - 14th round, 3rd pick by Paul
13th - James White - #10 RB - Undrafted
14th - Harrison Butker - #7 K (removing inactive kickers) - 15th round, 5th pick by Jon
15th - Eric Ebron - #3 TE - Undrafted
Depth Chart
QB: Mahomes II (33.62, #1), Ryan (28.59, #3)
Other than week 5, when both QBs scored under 20 points, you can't go wrong with either option. I don't see this team ever benching Mahomes but Ryan is an over-qualified backup.
WR: Thielen (16, #1), Hill (15.38, #2), Jackson (13.04, #7), Sanders (12.73, #9), Woods (11.78, #13)
Having the top 2 WRs is always a recipe for success but to top that off with 3 guys behind them who are all in the WR1 conversation? That's unreal. The WR3 spot can be changed out based on match ups/bye weeks and, more importantly, none of these guys will be scoring against the ideal team.
RB: Conner (21.17, #3), White (14.29, #10), Mack (17.43, #7), Lindsay (11.34, #16)
This is definitely the "weakest" of the positions on the ideal team. This is because the RBs taken in the first two rounds usually pan out for the teams that take them (my condolences to Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette owners). But 2 Top 10 RBs along with an emerging top 10 back in Mack will allow this team to compete with any other team in the league. Mack may step into the RB1 role on this team if his production continues in Indy and Conner sees a drop-off with Bell's return.
TE: Ebron (10.16, #3), Kittle (9.05, #5)
Other than Ertz, Kelce, and Gronk (is he though in 2018?), there are no sure things at TE anymore. So having 2 top 5 options is more than adequate for FF in 2018.
K: Butker (9.75, #7)
While there have been kickers who have skewed averages due to 20+ point weeks, Butker has been consistent in a high-scoring offense and should continue to reap the benefits of the Mahomes Show.
DEF: Chicago (10.14, #2)
The Rams have a had a slightly higher average but Chicago has been better on a week to week basis. They're almost matchup proof (as long as Mack plays) and we were able to wait 3 extra rounds to get them.
Average PPG: 143.55 (!!!)
I know the scoring in the NFL has been bonkers this year but to put that number into perspective, only 2 teams have topped that number in a given week (Simon - Week 1, David K - Week 4).
Honorable Mentions:
RB:
- Joe Mixon: He's been a top 10 RB but I would have to use a 1st or 2nd round pick on him. I'd rather dominate the WR position than take a RB that's missed 2 games.
- Sony Michel: Went a little too early (7th round) for me to consider using a 6th rounder on him with so many other options on the board. Plus, we're not quite sure what the effects of his injury will be.
- Nick Chubb: While I believe in his talent, I couldn't take him over any of the other backs, especially with things so uncertain in Cleveland
- Matt Breida: As mentioned earlier, he's performed well in place of McKinnon but we don't know whether or not he'll be back to 100% this season and his offensive situation is looking bleak.
- TJ Yeldon: He's performed better than Lindsay on the year (12 PPG) but with Fournette possibly returning and Carlos Hyde taking some carries, his ROS outlook is bleaker than most.
WR:
- Calvin Ridley: He's cooled off after a hot start. Still, a decent option but the 5 above him are more consistent.
- Kenny Golladay: Almost exact same scoring pattern as Ridley (hot start, cool recently). Once again, the better options made the cut.
- Tyler Boyd: Boyd is right behind Woods in scoring average but his booms and busts are more difficult to depend on.
QB:
- Jared Goff: I almost took him over Ryan due to his system but he was a little too far behind (bottom half of QB1s) in performance so far and their ROS outlook is about even.
- Andrew Luck: The closest cut, he's been a top 5 QB so far and should continue slinging it. I wouldn't be upset if you replaced Ryan with Luck.
TE:
- Jared Cook: His boom or busts have been too high and low. But the weeks he booms? Almost no other TE can match his production. His ROS outlook is great too with no Pooper Cooper to compete with for targets.
One interesting observation: the 4th and 5th round in the draft were rough. Who was the best pick? Nobody really panned out from these 2 rounds, even though at this point, you're still drafting key starters. I'd say Cam was the best pick as he's produced as a top 5 QB or Ertz who has been a top 3 TE on a weekly basis. Outside of those 2, you've got a few bright but non-elite players (Juju, Cooks, Dion Lewis), some unlucky injuries (McKinnon, Ajayi), and a slew of underachievers (Cooper, Allen Robinson, Graham, Freeman, Lamar Miller, Demaryius Thomas, Goodwin, DeShaun Watson). It was weird that in the 3rd-5th round, I couldn't find any major value picks for the ideal team.
One other note: David Y dropped both Woods and Jackson and now starts Funchess and Lockett. May God have mercy on his soul.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
Week 8 - MOTW
We got a big one today (TWSS) so let's dive right into it!
MOTW
7. Kerryon MyWaywardSon vs. 8. Berries 'n Kareem
While there is a fierce matchup between Cho and Jon to get a bye in week 14, a little bit further down the table, 2 teams are fighting for their playoff lives. They say (and by they, I mean just me) that the 7th loss is the loss that will leave you out of the playoffs due to the fact that the 7th loss drops you below .500. And outside of an extremely weird season, the top 6 teams will usually have more wins than losses (just like in the NFL!). Jung looked to be an overly lucky team in the beginning of the season due to his higher win total compared to his expected wins based on points. Eric has been on the flip side of that, scoring the 4th highest in the league (only 11.1 points, less than 2 points per week, behind 2nd place), with only 3 wins to show for it. They collide in week 8 with huge stakes on the line: a win gets them back to .500, where a 3-2 rest of season gets them to the playoffs (most likely) but a loss puts them at 3-5, needing a 4-1 stretch, just to have a chance at sniffing the postseason.
Eric's Top 3:
1. Gurley (RB) - 27
2. Mixon (RB) - 23
3. Gronk (TE) - 19
Clearly the strength of Eric's team lies in his backfield. Gurley should continue his monster season against a middle-of-the-pack Packers run D. An interesting aside: I wonder if the Rams success will decrease Gurley's value if they clinch the NFC by week 14 or 15 OR if his record-breaking pace will just increase his reps. This on-field storyline could help determine Eric's fantasy season. Mixon has drawn comparisons to a middle-class man's Bell and when you watch him, you can see glimpses of what make the comparisons apt. His patience behind the line, catching ability, and breaking tackles is reminiscent of Bell (pour one out for David Y, who continues to wait on his return). I can't see him struggling against a Bucs front that just got gashed for over 4 YPC against a rookie in his first start. Gronk should return with a bang against a Bills defense that has a strong secondary and front four but lack some LB talent. Also, in his career, he's absolutely KILLED the Bills. In 13 career games, he's caught 79 YPG, been targeted over 7 times per game, and has 12 TDs (almost 1 per game!). Additionally, any production Gronk gets helps to negate the damage done by Brady.
Jung's Top 3:
1. Brady (QB) - 31
2. Hunt (RB) - 21
2. Patriots (DEF) - 18
Jung is going all in on the Patriots (especially if he follows my advice below) this week and it seems like a wise choice to do so. If Luck can drop over 30 points on the Bills, why wouldn't Brady (who has historically dominated this matchup)? We move on to Hunt who dominated the Broncos in the last matchup. Even when they had the No Fly Zone, the Broncos always gave up more than desired on the ground. Expect them to game plan a little more for Hunt this time around, especially after he gashed them at Mile High, but Chiefs + Arrowhead + Expected Lead is going to be enough yards and scoring opportunities for Hunt to be a top-end RB1. Lastly, the Patriots defense is salivating thinking about the different QB options they will be facing. Do they get the inexperienced rookie Josh Allen? Do they get Nate "I'm pretty sure I can throw better than him" Peterman? No, they get Derek "I was born before fantasy football was a thing" Anderson, who has had 10 days to learn an entire playbook (which doesn't seem like it was a very creative playbook to begin with). Additionally, no Shady + weak talent at the skill positions is going to mean a long day for the Bills. Expect a low scoring game for the Bills offense, at least 3 turnovers, numerous sacks, and a potential defensive TD for the Patriots.
X-Factor: Stafford (QB, Eric) vs. White (RB, Jung)
I'm highlighting two guys that aren't currently in the roster at the time of writing but I think could make the top 3 in scoring if they are started. Stafford gets a still formidable, but no Legion of Boom, defense on a fast track at home in the dome. Outside of a disastrous week 1, Stafford hasn't scored under 19 points and this game has a chance to be a shootout. While the Jags haven't been as good as Jalen Ramsey has advertised, I think they still have the talent to give Wentz a hard time, especially with the energizing chants of the home crowd. If I were Eric, I'd start Stafford. On the other side, Ingram gets a tough Vikings front that is recovering from its weird 2 game slide. Even though Ingram is the lead back, he still splits work with Kamara and he struggled in both meetings against the Vikings last year (11 touches for 71 yards in the regular season, 11 touches for 28 yards in the playoffs, both in Minnesota, as the game on Sunday will be). The Vikings defense returns almost all the same players from those 2 games and should make it a tough day for Ingram. Instead, Jung should look to play James White. He should naturally have a bigger role with Michel out and the Bills have gotten completely destroyed the last couple of weeks by backs that may not have as much talent as White (Mack: 21 for 159 and 2 TDs, Derrick Henry: 5.6 YPC, Aaron Jones + Ty Mont: 19 for 156 and a TD). Additionally, a few short TDs from Brady would allow Jung to double-dip in TDs.
Potential Starters Missing Due to Bye:
Eric - Ridley (WR)
Jung - None
Winner: Eric
While the Patriots should dominate the Bills, leading to a great potential fantasy day for Jung, I have a feeling that they'll cannibalize each other to an extent. Let's say the Patriots score 2 defensive TDs. Will Brady throw much longer in the game? Or let's say Brady stakes them a 3 TD lead. Does the defense start relaxing and give up a few garbage scores? Will they start resting players to prevent injuries? This married with the fact that Gurley is unstoppable and that the best receiver may be on Eric's side (I like DT in his matchup against the Chiefs, kind of interesting though that none of the WRs made the top 3 or X Factor on either team), I'm going to have to go with Eric getting one step closer to the playoffs. One other interesting tidbit: If Eric and Jung had played weeks 1-7 against each other, Eric would be up 4-3, meaning this one could be a close matchup. BUT of those 3 wins by Jung, 2 of them are by less than .2 points (Week 2 by .18 and Week 3 by .04 (!!!)). I hope this becomes a nail biter like the Cho v. Paul matchup last week. The Monday night battles make great entertainment for other owners whose weeks have already wrapped up.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
MOTW
7. Kerryon MyWaywardSon vs. 8. Berries 'n Kareem
While there is a fierce matchup between Cho and Jon to get a bye in week 14, a little bit further down the table, 2 teams are fighting for their playoff lives. They say (and by they, I mean just me) that the 7th loss is the loss that will leave you out of the playoffs due to the fact that the 7th loss drops you below .500. And outside of an extremely weird season, the top 6 teams will usually have more wins than losses (just like in the NFL!). Jung looked to be an overly lucky team in the beginning of the season due to his higher win total compared to his expected wins based on points. Eric has been on the flip side of that, scoring the 4th highest in the league (only 11.1 points, less than 2 points per week, behind 2nd place), with only 3 wins to show for it. They collide in week 8 with huge stakes on the line: a win gets them back to .500, where a 3-2 rest of season gets them to the playoffs (most likely) but a loss puts them at 3-5, needing a 4-1 stretch, just to have a chance at sniffing the postseason.
Eric's Top 3:
1. Gurley (RB) - 27
2. Mixon (RB) - 23
3. Gronk (TE) - 19
Clearly the strength of Eric's team lies in his backfield. Gurley should continue his monster season against a middle-of-the-pack Packers run D. An interesting aside: I wonder if the Rams success will decrease Gurley's value if they clinch the NFC by week 14 or 15 OR if his record-breaking pace will just increase his reps. This on-field storyline could help determine Eric's fantasy season. Mixon has drawn comparisons to a middle-class man's Bell and when you watch him, you can see glimpses of what make the comparisons apt. His patience behind the line, catching ability, and breaking tackles is reminiscent of Bell (pour one out for David Y, who continues to wait on his return). I can't see him struggling against a Bucs front that just got gashed for over 4 YPC against a rookie in his first start. Gronk should return with a bang against a Bills defense that has a strong secondary and front four but lack some LB talent. Also, in his career, he's absolutely KILLED the Bills. In 13 career games, he's caught 79 YPG, been targeted over 7 times per game, and has 12 TDs (almost 1 per game!). Additionally, any production Gronk gets helps to negate the damage done by Brady.
Jung's Top 3:
1. Brady (QB) - 31
2. Hunt (RB) - 21
2. Patriots (DEF) - 18
Jung is going all in on the Patriots (especially if he follows my advice below) this week and it seems like a wise choice to do so. If Luck can drop over 30 points on the Bills, why wouldn't Brady (who has historically dominated this matchup)? We move on to Hunt who dominated the Broncos in the last matchup. Even when they had the No Fly Zone, the Broncos always gave up more than desired on the ground. Expect them to game plan a little more for Hunt this time around, especially after he gashed them at Mile High, but Chiefs + Arrowhead + Expected Lead is going to be enough yards and scoring opportunities for Hunt to be a top-end RB1. Lastly, the Patriots defense is salivating thinking about the different QB options they will be facing. Do they get the inexperienced rookie Josh Allen? Do they get Nate "I'm pretty sure I can throw better than him" Peterman? No, they get Derek "I was born before fantasy football was a thing" Anderson, who has had 10 days to learn an entire playbook (which doesn't seem like it was a very creative playbook to begin with). Additionally, no Shady + weak talent at the skill positions is going to mean a long day for the Bills. Expect a low scoring game for the Bills offense, at least 3 turnovers, numerous sacks, and a potential defensive TD for the Patriots.
X-Factor: Stafford (QB, Eric) vs. White (RB, Jung)
I'm highlighting two guys that aren't currently in the roster at the time of writing but I think could make the top 3 in scoring if they are started. Stafford gets a still formidable, but no Legion of Boom, defense on a fast track at home in the dome. Outside of a disastrous week 1, Stafford hasn't scored under 19 points and this game has a chance to be a shootout. While the Jags haven't been as good as Jalen Ramsey has advertised, I think they still have the talent to give Wentz a hard time, especially with the energizing chants of the home crowd. If I were Eric, I'd start Stafford. On the other side, Ingram gets a tough Vikings front that is recovering from its weird 2 game slide. Even though Ingram is the lead back, he still splits work with Kamara and he struggled in both meetings against the Vikings last year (11 touches for 71 yards in the regular season, 11 touches for 28 yards in the playoffs, both in Minnesota, as the game on Sunday will be). The Vikings defense returns almost all the same players from those 2 games and should make it a tough day for Ingram. Instead, Jung should look to play James White. He should naturally have a bigger role with Michel out and the Bills have gotten completely destroyed the last couple of weeks by backs that may not have as much talent as White (Mack: 21 for 159 and 2 TDs, Derrick Henry: 5.6 YPC, Aaron Jones + Ty Mont: 19 for 156 and a TD). Additionally, a few short TDs from Brady would allow Jung to double-dip in TDs.
Potential Starters Missing Due to Bye:
Eric - Ridley (WR)
Jung - None
Winner: Eric
While the Patriots should dominate the Bills, leading to a great potential fantasy day for Jung, I have a feeling that they'll cannibalize each other to an extent. Let's say the Patriots score 2 defensive TDs. Will Brady throw much longer in the game? Or let's say Brady stakes them a 3 TD lead. Does the defense start relaxing and give up a few garbage scores? Will they start resting players to prevent injuries? This married with the fact that Gurley is unstoppable and that the best receiver may be on Eric's side (I like DT in his matchup against the Chiefs, kind of interesting though that none of the WRs made the top 3 or X Factor on either team), I'm going to have to go with Eric getting one step closer to the playoffs. One other interesting tidbit: If Eric and Jung had played weeks 1-7 against each other, Eric would be up 4-3, meaning this one could be a close matchup. BUT of those 3 wins by Jung, 2 of them are by less than .2 points (Week 2 by .18 and Week 3 by .04 (!!!)). I hope this becomes a nail biter like the Cho v. Paul matchup last week. The Monday night battles make great entertainment for other owners whose weeks have already wrapped up.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Wednesday, October 17, 2018
The Best Sleepers So Far
Usually as the snake has gone back and forth 5 times in the draft and we prepare to start the 11th round, we don't expect to find much value. The chat has died down, the defenses and kickers are starting to come off the board, and most of us have just queued up a few players we have irrational hopes for. But every once in a while, you find a treasure trove, a gold mine. The following players were drafted in the dead time in the draft but are providing real fantasy impact through the first 6 weeks. These may be the picks that end up winning the league. Let's start by taking a look a few guys who didn't make the cut:
Guys drafted a round or two early to be sleepers for this post:
Tarik Cohen - Dan Park - Round 9
Current Production: 20th best RB, mid-tier RB2
Tarik has benefited more from Nagy's system than Jordan Howard has. He's not only making up the value difference in the rounds they were taken; he has surpassed Howard's production.
Andrew Luck - Paul Kim - Round 9
Current Production: 6th best QB, mid-tier QB1
Luck has come out firing, with no regards or worries about the shoulder issues that have plagued him. He'll continue to be a gunslinger for an Indy team that has to throw to stay alive in games. Even without TY or Doyle, he's been able to put up impressive numbers.
Kenny Golladay - Dan Park - Round 10
Current Production: 15th best WR, high-end WR2
Golladay has surpassed Jones in the Lions pecking order and may surpass Tate due to his ridiculous athleticism and catch radius. With the threat of Kerryon in the backfield, the downfield plays should open up for him to continue his success.
Patrick Mahomes - Brian Cho - Round 10
Current Production: Number 1 QB, best QB1
Who would have known that Mahomes would be this good? Other than a 15 point "dud," he hasn't scored less than 24 points in a week and surpassed 30 points 4 times (including a 50-burger). With the KC defense struggling, he'll continue to get opportunities.
Real Steals:
Honorable Mentions:
Geronimo Allison - Eric Lee - Round 11
Current Production: Number 26 WR, high-end WR3
Comparable to TY Hilton (3rd round), Fuller (7th round)
He's done well with the opportunities that have been provided to him. He's missed a few weeks with injury but he's got a great QB throwing to him and has earned his trust on the long ball.
Chris Godwin - Paul Kim - Round 12
Current Production: Number 29 WR, mid-tier WR3
Comparable to Fuller (7th round), Goodwin (5th round)
A third option in a revitalized Bucs offense, he was a steal but Paul may have grabbed the wrong Bucs receiver (see below). But anytime you can get a starter in this range, you've made a great pick.
Jared Goff - Chris Chung - Round 14
Current Production: Number 11 starting QB, low-end QB1
Comparable to Cousins (6th round), Wentz (9th round)
Usually in round 14, you're just looking to get a solid backup QB for your QB1's bye week. But Chris got the QB in one of the most prolific offenses this season. McVay has made Goff a star and we don't see any signs of slowing down.
Top 5:
5. John Brown - Jon Lee - Round 14
Current Production: Number 27 WR, high-end WR3
Comparable to TY Hilton (3rd round), Fuller (7th round)
John Brown has always had some issues in Arizona with injuries but crab cakes seem to be the cure. He's Flacco's favorite target and he uses his speed to get behind the secondary. If there's one thing Flacco is known for, it's his arm strength so expect this combination to keep finding success.
4. Matt Breida - David Kim - Round 12
Current Production: Number 18 RB, mid-tier RB2
Comparable to Hyde (6th round), Lynch (6th round)
Breida had some luck as McKinnon went down before the season began, but he's still had to stave off Alfred Morris to stay relevant. He's done more than an adequate job and he should continue to produce in Shanahan's offense. Expect him to get more involved in the short pass game with Beathard needing more check down options.
3. Tyler Lockett - Jon Lee - Round 11
Current Production: Number 23 WR, low-end WR2
Comparable to Diggs (2nd round), OBJ (1st round)
With a new contract, many players seem to falter but Lockett has only been out there to prove that the contract was worth it. He's been producing at the same level as a few first and second round picks. Wilson usually improves as the season goes on, which can only mean better things for Lockett.
2. Calvin Ridley - Eric Lee - Round 13
Current Production: 16th best WR, high-end WR2
Comparable to Emmanuel Sanders (6th round), Julio Jones (2nd round)
Julio Jones in the first round or Calvin Ridley in the 13th? Even with a 0 point performance in week 1, he's producing at the same level of the guy that lines up on the opposite side of the field as him. He's been more touchdown dependent than most on the list but it shows that Ryan trusts Ridley in the Red Zone. The duo of Alabama receivers continue to power this offense so expect many more looks in the future.
1. DeSean Jackson - David Yim - Round 14
Current Production: 5th best WR, mid-tier WR1
Comparable to Antonio Brown (1st round), DeAndre Hopkins (1st round)
Poor David. Why he decided to drop DeSean after grabbing such a steal is beyond me. He had one bad game with 37 yards but he's been on fire this season. He's slowed a bit since Winston has come on but he's actually getting more targets than before. It'll be hard to keep up this WR1 pace he's been on but even if he slips to WR2 or high-end WR3 status, that's an amazing find in the 14th round.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Guys drafted a round or two early to be sleepers for this post:
Tarik Cohen - Dan Park - Round 9
Current Production: 20th best RB, mid-tier RB2
Tarik has benefited more from Nagy's system than Jordan Howard has. He's not only making up the value difference in the rounds they were taken; he has surpassed Howard's production.
Andrew Luck - Paul Kim - Round 9
Current Production: 6th best QB, mid-tier QB1
Luck has come out firing, with no regards or worries about the shoulder issues that have plagued him. He'll continue to be a gunslinger for an Indy team that has to throw to stay alive in games. Even without TY or Doyle, he's been able to put up impressive numbers.
Kenny Golladay - Dan Park - Round 10
Current Production: 15th best WR, high-end WR2
Golladay has surpassed Jones in the Lions pecking order and may surpass Tate due to his ridiculous athleticism and catch radius. With the threat of Kerryon in the backfield, the downfield plays should open up for him to continue his success.
Patrick Mahomes - Brian Cho - Round 10
Current Production: Number 1 QB, best QB1
Who would have known that Mahomes would be this good? Other than a 15 point "dud," he hasn't scored less than 24 points in a week and surpassed 30 points 4 times (including a 50-burger). With the KC defense struggling, he'll continue to get opportunities.
Real Steals:
Honorable Mentions:
Geronimo Allison - Eric Lee - Round 11
Current Production: Number 26 WR, high-end WR3
Comparable to TY Hilton (3rd round), Fuller (7th round)
He's done well with the opportunities that have been provided to him. He's missed a few weeks with injury but he's got a great QB throwing to him and has earned his trust on the long ball.
Chris Godwin - Paul Kim - Round 12
Current Production: Number 29 WR, mid-tier WR3
Comparable to Fuller (7th round), Goodwin (5th round)
A third option in a revitalized Bucs offense, he was a steal but Paul may have grabbed the wrong Bucs receiver (see below). But anytime you can get a starter in this range, you've made a great pick.
Jared Goff - Chris Chung - Round 14
Current Production: Number 11 starting QB, low-end QB1
Comparable to Cousins (6th round), Wentz (9th round)
Usually in round 14, you're just looking to get a solid backup QB for your QB1's bye week. But Chris got the QB in one of the most prolific offenses this season. McVay has made Goff a star and we don't see any signs of slowing down.
Top 5:
5. John Brown - Jon Lee - Round 14
Current Production: Number 27 WR, high-end WR3
Comparable to TY Hilton (3rd round), Fuller (7th round)
John Brown has always had some issues in Arizona with injuries but crab cakes seem to be the cure. He's Flacco's favorite target and he uses his speed to get behind the secondary. If there's one thing Flacco is known for, it's his arm strength so expect this combination to keep finding success.
4. Matt Breida - David Kim - Round 12
Current Production: Number 18 RB, mid-tier RB2
Comparable to Hyde (6th round), Lynch (6th round)
Breida had some luck as McKinnon went down before the season began, but he's still had to stave off Alfred Morris to stay relevant. He's done more than an adequate job and he should continue to produce in Shanahan's offense. Expect him to get more involved in the short pass game with Beathard needing more check down options.
3. Tyler Lockett - Jon Lee - Round 11
Current Production: Number 23 WR, low-end WR2
Comparable to Diggs (2nd round), OBJ (1st round)
With a new contract, many players seem to falter but Lockett has only been out there to prove that the contract was worth it. He's been producing at the same level as a few first and second round picks. Wilson usually improves as the season goes on, which can only mean better things for Lockett.
2. Calvin Ridley - Eric Lee - Round 13
Current Production: 16th best WR, high-end WR2
Comparable to Emmanuel Sanders (6th round), Julio Jones (2nd round)
Julio Jones in the first round or Calvin Ridley in the 13th? Even with a 0 point performance in week 1, he's producing at the same level of the guy that lines up on the opposite side of the field as him. He's been more touchdown dependent than most on the list but it shows that Ryan trusts Ridley in the Red Zone. The duo of Alabama receivers continue to power this offense so expect many more looks in the future.
1. DeSean Jackson - David Yim - Round 14
Current Production: 5th best WR, mid-tier WR1
Comparable to Antonio Brown (1st round), DeAndre Hopkins (1st round)
Poor David. Why he decided to drop DeSean after grabbing such a steal is beyond me. He had one bad game with 37 yards but he's been on fire this season. He's slowed a bit since Winston has come on but he's actually getting more targets than before. It'll be hard to keep up this WR1 pace he's been on but even if he slips to WR2 or high-end WR3 status, that's an amazing find in the 14th round.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Sorry No MOTW...
Because baby Jonah was born on Monday!
Please excuse the lack of an update this week. Just too exhausted to write one at the moment.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, October 4, 2018
Week 5 - MOTW
David Kim is slacking at work and needs something to read so here we go!
MOTW
6. Berries 'n Kareem vs. 7. The Glory Hogans
While there is a rare 1 v 2 match up and even a 3 v 4 match up, both David and Cho got covered last week. Additionally, those two teams (along with Mike [who by the way, auto-drafted, meaning 8 people are performing worse than a guy who didn't care enough to be at the draft]) should be featured in future MOTWs. So let's give some love to a matchup between 2 2-2 teams that are jockeying for playoff position. While it's too early to say that a loss in week 5 would be catastrophic for either team, a win here provides a .500 road to the playoffs while a loss creates a 2 win deficit that must be overcome with a slew of bye weeks yet to come. Jung and Paul have both had trouble maintaining consistent success and making the playoffs but this could be a good week to start a new trend.
Jung's Top 3:
1. Brady (QB) - 36
2. Lynch (RB) - 18
3. Bryant (K) - 14
Brady has always loved destroying the Colts and with a newfound resurgence after a 1-2 start, along with the return of Edelman, the further incorporation of Josh Gordon into their offense, and a young Colts defense who have not faced Belichick yet, I see Brady going off. The only thing limiting his performance may be that due to the blowout, he doesn't need to play half of the 4th quarter. Reich has proven himself to be an idiotic coach (why would you hand a division rival a win instead of taking the half win with the tie?) and I'm sure he will be outsmarted by the duo across the field. Lynch has Gruden's trust and as the Raiders try to play football from the 90s, Lynch will continue to benefit. A kicker being one of your top 3 scorers usually signals a poor week from the rest of your team and that could be the case for Jung. Adams will be covered by Slay, Hunt faces a tough Jaguars defense, and Fuller will face a stingier than expected Cowboys secondary. Bryant will be in a high scoring game against the Steelers who can't seem to stop anything. Fast-paced, with tons of red zone opportunities should allow the ever-reliable Bryant to break out with a massive game.
Paul's Top 3:
1. Juju SS (WR) - 26
2. Coleman (RB) - 21
3. Luck (QB) - 21
I just realized that Smith-Schuster actually stands for Super-Saiyan. Evidenced by his Rasengan celebration earlier this season, Juju is very aware of the anime world. So much so, he probably is from the anime world. That's the only way to explain his other-worldly start to the season... or the fact that AB is getting triple teamed on every pass play. Nonetheless, expect him to have a great game against an Atlanta team that lost it's best corner, best safety, and best linebacker. If this game doesn't post at least 100 combined points from the two teams, I will be highly disappointed. The current over/under is 57.5 meaning a 31-28 score would win that bet. You're telling me that these two defenses are limiting each other to 4 TDs? I expect the cover to occur before the end of the 3rd quarter. (Sorry, I got distracted by gambling). Coleman is another beneficiary of this matchup. Freeman may return but he's going to get the lion's share of pass targets. With Julio and Ridley taking all the attention, Coleman should break a bunch of big plays from the backfield. Luck will get his share of opportunities against the Patriots, but with no Hilton or Doyle, I dont' think Hines, Ebron, and Grant are enough for him to put up a big line, even when playing from behind. Expect a lot of frustrating 3 and outs.
X-Factor: Hunt (RB, Jung) vs. OBJ (WR, Paul)
Both of these guys could be held to less than 6 points or explode for 20+. Hunt goes against a stingy defense BUT there are two factors working in his favor: 1. The Jags are marginally easier to run on than to pass on and 2. Mahomes is not a human being so if anyone can find a chink in the Jags armor, it's going to be him (BTW, Mahomes is my new favorite player in the NFL. It's nice to have one since Manning retired [actually, since his arm turned into a noodle in 2015]. I think a combination of Julio, OBJ, Zeke, and Tyreek Hill had filled the void since them but this is official). OBJ has struggled because Eli has struggled because the O-line has struggled. However, after his outburst on the sidelines last week, expect the Giants to dial up his number. A lot. Expect 12+ targets. The result will depend on how many of those he ends up catching.
Winner: Paul
This one is close but I just like Paul's match ups slightly more than Jung's. He's got a few more guys that could blow up and Edelman should mitigate some of the Brady damage. Additionally, he's still got guys like Lindsay, Hines, and Lewis that he may want to consider over Cook for a higher floor AND ceiling.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
MOTW
6. Berries 'n Kareem vs. 7. The Glory Hogans
While there is a rare 1 v 2 match up and even a 3 v 4 match up, both David and Cho got covered last week. Additionally, those two teams (along with Mike [who by the way, auto-drafted, meaning 8 people are performing worse than a guy who didn't care enough to be at the draft]) should be featured in future MOTWs. So let's give some love to a matchup between 2 2-2 teams that are jockeying for playoff position. While it's too early to say that a loss in week 5 would be catastrophic for either team, a win here provides a .500 road to the playoffs while a loss creates a 2 win deficit that must be overcome with a slew of bye weeks yet to come. Jung and Paul have both had trouble maintaining consistent success and making the playoffs but this could be a good week to start a new trend.
Jung's Top 3:
1. Brady (QB) - 36
2. Lynch (RB) - 18
3. Bryant (K) - 14
Brady has always loved destroying the Colts and with a newfound resurgence after a 1-2 start, along with the return of Edelman, the further incorporation of Josh Gordon into their offense, and a young Colts defense who have not faced Belichick yet, I see Brady going off. The only thing limiting his performance may be that due to the blowout, he doesn't need to play half of the 4th quarter. Reich has proven himself to be an idiotic coach (why would you hand a division rival a win instead of taking the half win with the tie?) and I'm sure he will be outsmarted by the duo across the field. Lynch has Gruden's trust and as the Raiders try to play football from the 90s, Lynch will continue to benefit. A kicker being one of your top 3 scorers usually signals a poor week from the rest of your team and that could be the case for Jung. Adams will be covered by Slay, Hunt faces a tough Jaguars defense, and Fuller will face a stingier than expected Cowboys secondary. Bryant will be in a high scoring game against the Steelers who can't seem to stop anything. Fast-paced, with tons of red zone opportunities should allow the ever-reliable Bryant to break out with a massive game.
Paul's Top 3:
1. Juju SS (WR) - 26
2. Coleman (RB) - 21
3. Luck (QB) - 21
I just realized that Smith-Schuster actually stands for Super-Saiyan. Evidenced by his Rasengan celebration earlier this season, Juju is very aware of the anime world. So much so, he probably is from the anime world. That's the only way to explain his other-worldly start to the season... or the fact that AB is getting triple teamed on every pass play. Nonetheless, expect him to have a great game against an Atlanta team that lost it's best corner, best safety, and best linebacker. If this game doesn't post at least 100 combined points from the two teams, I will be highly disappointed. The current over/under is 57.5 meaning a 31-28 score would win that bet. You're telling me that these two defenses are limiting each other to 4 TDs? I expect the cover to occur before the end of the 3rd quarter. (Sorry, I got distracted by gambling). Coleman is another beneficiary of this matchup. Freeman may return but he's going to get the lion's share of pass targets. With Julio and Ridley taking all the attention, Coleman should break a bunch of big plays from the backfield. Luck will get his share of opportunities against the Patriots, but with no Hilton or Doyle, I dont' think Hines, Ebron, and Grant are enough for him to put up a big line, even when playing from behind. Expect a lot of frustrating 3 and outs.
X-Factor: Hunt (RB, Jung) vs. OBJ (WR, Paul)
Both of these guys could be held to less than 6 points or explode for 20+. Hunt goes against a stingy defense BUT there are two factors working in his favor: 1. The Jags are marginally easier to run on than to pass on and 2. Mahomes is not a human being so if anyone can find a chink in the Jags armor, it's going to be him (BTW, Mahomes is my new favorite player in the NFL. It's nice to have one since Manning retired [actually, since his arm turned into a noodle in 2015]. I think a combination of Julio, OBJ, Zeke, and Tyreek Hill had filled the void since them but this is official). OBJ has struggled because Eli has struggled because the O-line has struggled. However, after his outburst on the sidelines last week, expect the Giants to dial up his number. A lot. Expect 12+ targets. The result will depend on how many of those he ends up catching.
Winner: Paul
This one is close but I just like Paul's match ups slightly more than Jung's. He's got a few more guys that could blow up and Edelman should mitigate some of the Brady damage. Additionally, he's still got guys like Lindsay, Hines, and Lewis that he may want to consider over Cook for a higher floor AND ceiling.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
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