Draft Analysis

So apparently Yahoo has been paying very close attention to our league... Between keeping track of the pick'ems and draft report cards, it seems like whatever we implement in our league, Yahoo does for all leagues. Hopefully they don't find out about this blog or MOTW is going to be a national thing.

Anyways, the biggest problem with the report card given by Yahoo is that it is so computerized. After reading 2 or 3, you can tell that they just regurgitate the same information over and over and over. Instead, let's take a real good look at each team's strengths and weaknesses.

One last note before I start: I'm pretty impressed with how everybody drafted. I really think there isn't a "bad" team per se after the draft. Of course, injuries and failure to meet expectations might derail some teams but almost every team has solid balance.

We'll go in the order of the draft:

Funky Fresh (David Yim)
Strength: RB
Weakness: WR
Best Pick: 1st Round, Adrian Peterson
Worst Pick: 7th Round, Kyle Rudolph
Sleeper: 12th Round, Owen Daniels

For his first draft ever, David was able to hold his own. Don't get me wrong, he lucked into the best possible drafting slot in a year where the number 1 overall pick was all but certain. However, he had many opportunities to throw his advantage away in the middle rounds and although I would have done some things differently, I think he'll be fine. Between Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson, he has a potential 3,000 rushing yards and 25 TDs just from his RB spot. Neither RB has to worry about TD vultures as well so all goal line scores should be done by the franchise back.

Although Demaryius is a solid anchor for any WR corp, Torrey Smith and James Jones leave something to be desired. Both are speedy WRs who rely on TDs to get a lot of their fantasy points. Torrey is now basically the only receiving option left on the Ravens so he'll see double coverages most nights and James Jones will have to battle Cobb, Jordy, and Finley for TD catches, assuming the Packers don't hand it off to Lacy in short-yardage situations.

Owen Daniels might end up eclipsing Kyle Rudolph, even though he was taken 5 rounds later. Kyle Rudolph was too streaky last year to justify being taken that much earlier after the top tier TEs (Graham, Witten, Gronk) had already been drafted. But taking Daniels may have saved David due to the fact that when healthy, Daniels could be a top 5 TE in this deflated year for the TE position.

The Powerhouse (Nelson Kim)
Strength: QB
Weakness: RB
Best Pick: 7th Round, Lance Moore
Worst Pick: 5th Round, Darren McFadden
Sleeper: 5th Round, Darren McFadden

By grabbing Aaron Rodgers, Nelson assured himself of never having to worry about the QB spot all season after week 4. Can he produce the same numbers without Greg Jennings who runs with a broken leg doe? Yes, yes he can. The emergence of Cobb as an underneath threat along with a solid running game should keep Rodgers among the top 3 fantasy QBs.

Lance Moore should be a force to be reckoned with this season. With Brees and Payton reunited, we can expect the Saints to throw the ball 50+ times a game. Colston and Graham can only catch so many and Sproles should take the attention of the linebackers. That leaves Moore to feast on 8-12 targets a game and pull in over 1,000 yards against single coverage.

However, Nelson's team might not have the power in the backfield it needs. The Muscle Hamster did pull off an incredible rookie campaign but he was one of the worst goal line backs in the league. Will losing those touches near the end zone hurt his fantasy value? And not only that his RB2 is none other than Darren McFadden. After completely screwing Nelson's team 2 years ago, Nelson has put his faith in a man who hasn't been fully healthy for a whole season in his whole NFL career. Will the gamble pay off? If it does, he might end up with 2 top 10 backs. If it doesn't, he'll have to hope Foster stays out for a while so Ben Tate can get some play.

Badonkagronk (Mike Lee)
Strength: TE
Weakness: QB
Best Pick: 2nd Round, Jimmy Graham
Worst Pick: 5th Round, Mike Wallace
Sleeper: 9th Round, Josh Gordon

1,310 yards. 11 TDs. Seems like a top 5 fantasy WR at first glance but instead, it's Jimmy's numbers from 2011. Even last year, battling a wrist injury (a pretty significant injury for someone who makes a living catching the ball), losing his offensive-minded coach,  and missing a game and a half, he was able to put up almost 1,000 yards and score 9 times. Jimmy Graham is such a cut above the rest of the TEs in the league, it's like having a 4th receiver.

What can you say about Romo? He's been a fantasy roller coaster. One game he'll throw 400+ yards with 4 TDs and no picks (week 16) and another he'll throw 5 picks and fumble another (week 4). You never know what you're going to get with Romo. I would be very disappointed if I had to start him week in and week out when the QB position is so deep this year. In the past Romo was a lock for the top 10. With the 4 breakout stars of last year (Luck, Wilson, Kaep, RG3), the continual dominance of some of the greatest QBs of our generation (Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers), and the new crop of rising all stars (Stafford, Ryan, Flacco, Newton), Romo might lose the spot of a starting fantasy QB soon.

If Brandon figures out how to not be horrible Gordon might end up a better player than Mike Wallace, who will be seeing double teams every weekend with a QB that might not even be able to get him the ball. But then again, I don't know if I trust a Brown not named Trent.

Jacked Up! (Brian Cho)
Strength: RB
Weakness: QB
Best Pick: 6th Round, Rob Gronkowski
Worst Pick: 6th Round, Rob Gronkowski
Sleeper: 9th Round, Chris Givens

The ridiculous thing about this team is that he has 4 RBs that are starters for their teams. Not only that, the 2 top backs are great at the goal line and will be heavily depended upon by their respective offenses. The only thing that could derail this tandem is injuries. Speaking of which...

Oh, how quickly we forget the greatness of the Gronk. Last year, he was projected to go in the top 15 picks. Now, he has fallen to the end of the 6th round. Did we forget that in 2011, less than 2 full years ago, he dominated the league and broke records? Of course, so many things have happened since then. The broken arm. The dancing in the club. Another surgery that ended his season. A third surgery before this season started. Then a fourth surgery to fix the third surgery. 4 surgeries in 16 months is not what you want to hear about your TE, especially one that also has some character issues. But if he can come back healthy, this sixth round selection will be a steal.

The St. Louis Rams haven't had much to celebrate lately. They drafted a franchise QB in Sam Bradford. They were supposed to create a formidable defense when Chris Long was drafted. They were supposed to be the ones who changed the landscape of the NFC West. Instead, they sat back and watched Wilson and Kaepernick overtake Bradford. They saw Willis, Smith, and Bowman create the best LB corp and Chancellor, Sherman, Browner, and Thomas become the best secondary in the league. And they saw both teams make the playoffs while the Rams watched at home. They hope that will all change as Givens separates himself from the rest of the pack at WR. If Sam Bradford can finally have that long ball threat to spread the field while he's on offense, they might be able to get the rest of their offense going. Boy was that a long way to say that Chris Givens might be a good pick this year.

its my vick in a box (Biggie)
Strength: QB
Weakness: WR
Best Pick: 3rd Round, Cam Newton
Worst Pick: 5th Round, Le'Veon Bell
Sleeper: 12th Round, Andre Roberts

Cam Newton is one of those guys whose fantasy value and real-life value couldn't be further apart. In real life, Cam's a great player, but not necessarily a winner. In 2 years, the Panthers have only won 11 games, which would barely get them into the playoffs. If they could win that many in one season. However, in fantasy, there's almost no better centerpiece to build your team around. He can pass. He can run. I'm sure if he wanted to, he could catch. Haven't you seen that UA commercial? His idea of a night out is practicing. Cam will finish as a top 3 QB this year. Mark my words.

DeSean Jackson. One of the biggest question marks in the league 5 years into his career. He has the speed and agility to be a number 1 receiver but he disappears in way too many games. And trusting an NFL player who doesn't even weigh 180 pounds? He's just asking for an injury. Let's hope Andre Roberts can bring back the Carson Palmer that took the Bengals to the playoffs.

Le'Veon Bell was injured on Monday night during a pre-season game. Biggie had the game on. He chose to draft Le'Veon Bell even after he had the opportunity to see him get injured. Le'Veon Bell is expected to miss at least 6 weeks with a Lisfranc injury. I know you like the Steelers but you can't let your bias affect you that much. You didn't see me draft Manning when he had that surgery on his neck. Who did draft him in the fourth round that year he didn't play? Hmm.... Oh yeah! This guy:

Donkey Ndamukong (Jon Lee)
Strength: RB
Weakness: TE
Best Pick: 2nd Round, MJD
Worst Pick: 6th Round, Shane Vereen
Sleeper: 10th Round, DeAndre Hopkins

MJD in the second round?! Past Simon from 2011 is asking how this is possible. I mean, he is 28 and has a lot of wear and tear on him but this is MJD we're talking about, a solid first round fixture for as long as we can remember. MJD looks like he's fully recovered and if he comes back with a chip on his shoulder for being drafted so low (because we all know that football players actually do pay attention to where they are drafted), watch out.

It's not really about the fact that he drafted Shane Vereen. I like Shane Vereen. Well, I don't actually know the guy but I'm sure I would like him (other than the fact that he plays for the Patriots). I think if Ridley goes down or fumbles one too many times, the job could easily be his for the taking. However, if you already have Ray Rice and MJD, why are you wasting a 6th round pick on another RB? He could have taken a WR (DeSean, Vincent Brown, or Lance Moore) or TE (Vernon Davis or Gronk) to fill out his starters but instead he takes a backup that he most likely won't play the entire season unless there is an injury. He might be hoping to trade him but let's be serious: trades are rarer in this league than the number of dogs that willingly enter Michael Vick's home.

DeAndre who? Houston's been looking for a counterpart to AJ for the longest time. They hope they've found a 1,000 yard receiver to complement Andre before Andre gets fed up with the Texans. Although I don't really advocate drafting 2 WRs on the same team, if DeAndre and The Andre both end up in the top 30, I change my advoca....tion.

Suck Mike Ditka (JY)
Strength: WR
Weakness: RB
Best Pick: 5th Round, Jordy Nelson
Worst Pick: 3rd Round, Tom Brady
Sleeper: 10th Round, DHB

Last year, we made fun of JY for drafting Jordy so early. This year, he might have the steal of the draft if Jordy can produce like he was supposed to last year. Knee injuries are unpredictable but Jordy should be part of a well-balanced passing attack that forces teams to single cover him. With the best current QB in the league on his team, Jordy could come in as a top-12 receiver.

How did Tom Brady go before both Peyton Manning? His receivers are nowhere near as good as Manning's (in fact he lost one to Manning this off-season. If you haven't heard about this, you shouldn't be playing in our league). I still think Brady is a top 10 QB. I'd just say he's closer to 10 than 1 and the 3rd round was WAY too early to take him, especially with some great WRs (Cruz, Wayne, Bowe, Roddy) and RBs (Miller,Wilson) still on the board.

Can DHB revive his life in Indy? The name of his game is speed. He ran a 4.3 40 at the combine but that hasn't translated to NFL success. Although he probably never should have been a first round pick, he still has the talent to be a solid NFL player. Maybe the turf in the Lucas Oil Stadium, Luck's arm, and Wayne's tutelage can bring out the player he was supposed to be. Watch out T.Y. DHB is coming for you.

Orangevodjuiceka (Dan Park)
Strength: WR
Weakness: RB
Best Pick: 8th Round, Rashard Mendenhall
Worst Pick: 12th Round, Kendall Wright
Sleeper: 10th Round, Alshon Jeffrey

Dan Park has always had a weird draft strategy. He's never adhered to standard convention but instead seems to reach on players a half round to a round before they should be drafted. But because he attacks positions that others are not targeting, he usually ends up with only one weak position on his team. This season was no different.

His WRs are ridiculous. Having Megatron makes up for half a receiver in case your WR3 is weak, but nobody in their right mind is going to call Reggie Wayne a weak WR. Instead, Dan Park arguably has 3 WR1s on his roster that could all catch 1200/10 this year. Not only that, he has Alshon Jeffery, a threat to become a solid WR3 in fantasy by believing in one little "fact": not all of Cutler's passes can be too Marshall.... right?

I don't know why he drafted Kendall Wright. He's out with a moderately severe injury, he's a 3rd stringer on his own team, and the Titans aren't going to be a prolific passing team this year. But Mendenhall in the 8th round could pay off. Although Mendenhall is better known for never living up to expectations, he pretty much has the starting job in Arizona. He does have to play 3 of the better defenses in the league 6 times by virtue of being in the NFC West but I'd be surprised if he doesn't get 1,000+ yards.

No Romo (David Kim)
Strength: WR
Weakness: WR3, TE
Best Pick: 2nd Round, Brandon Marshall
Worst Pick: 5th Round, Matt Ryan
Sleeper: All his RB2s; 15th Round, Denard Robinson??

Want to see a sick catch? Check this out. Yep, that was Jordan Cameron, a rookie who is supposed to finish close to the top 5 for TEs. Did you watch the video? He wasn't the guy who made the catch, he was the guy who missed the wide open pass and deflected it into the air for the opposition to intercept. That'll earn your QB's trust.

But Brandon Marshall should be able to make up for any lack of production by Cameron. I'll be surprised if he gets targeted less than 25 times a game. And even at just a 50% catch rate, he'll have 13+ catches a game. Average around 10 yards a catch and you have a record breaking season on your hands. Of course, if that fails, good old Roddy should be good for at least 1,200/8. After that, it becomes a little murky. Mike Williams has had one awesome rookie season and hasn't shown signs of growth since then. He was the No. 1 option that year but they've acquired VJax since. Freeman doesn't show signs of growth and with Doug Martin and a mobile QB, maybe they start moving away from the pass and move towards an option based offense.

The one pattern I've noticed about David is he clearly does a lot of research prior to the draft. He almost reads too many articles which is shown by his drafting of "sleepers" AKA "lottery tickets". You want to balance your roster with these lottery tickets and consistent performers, but he just wants the big score. You look at Montee Ball, Ahmad Bradshaw, and David Wilson, and they're all on every expert's "must-draft" list. Ball has never taken an NFL snap and Wilson had a disappointing year. Bradshaw is in Indy where they've never been a dominant running team. But he's got 3 lottery tickets and only needs 1 to hit. Lastly... DENARD ROBINSON??? Over/under at week 2 where he'll prove to be completely useless and dropped to roam free agency for the rest of our season. This isn't even a lottery ticket. This is betting on a horse at Belmont with 5,000 to 1 odds.

Forte Shades of Jay (Eric Lee)
Strength: WR
Weakness: TE
Best Pick: 7th Round, Giovani Bernard
Worst Pick: 5th Round, Cecil Shorts
Sleeper: 10th Round, Aaron Dobson

We haven't had a repeat championship yet but Eric's put himself in a decent position to be the first. But we'll dive into more of this next week in our Season Predictions. The main reason for this observation is his strength at WR. He has 2 legit WR1 candidates in Dez Bryant, who might finish as a top 3 WR, and Vincent Jackson, and Cecil Shorts could sneak into the top-25 if Gabbert can learn how to throw the ball. I think Cecil was taken too high because I don't know if I'll ever believe in Gabbert but it's up to him to prove me wrong.

Taking Giovani Bernard a round after BJGE was a steal. I believe Bernard will finish the year with much better numbers and that would be Eric's backup. Although BJGE might finish drives as a goal line back, Bernard should quietly put up a 1,000+ yard campaign and might be trade bait halfway through the season when injuries start to hit.

Will Dobson be the latest unknown that Brady turns into a fantasy monster? How many of you guys knew that Wes Welker used to play on the Dolphins? I did (that's right, this is a place for me to gloat about my amazing football knowledge). But that's not that point. The point is that after he went on the Patriots, he became a household name, in both fantasy and real life. He's been a consistent top-60 pick player and has amassed more receptions than anybody in the NFL in the last 5 years. I'm not saying that Dobson is the same player. Welker showed flashes of talent in the one Dolphins game I watched before he came to the Pats. He was breaking tackles and breaking off long runs on punt returns. But Dobson has been put in a place to succeed, especially with a great RB and TE to take the attention off himself. He'll be the 4th option behind Gronk, Ridley, and Amendola, but he'll get enough targets to warrant a roster spot. What he does with those targets will ultimately determine his worth.

Ben There Raped That (Paul Kim)
Strength: RB
Weakness: WR
Best Pick: 5th Round, Matthew Stafford
Worst Pick: 4th Round, Darren Sproles
Sleeper: All his WR3s

Playing it by the book, Paul drafted the 2 best players available on the board by the time it got to the 12th pick. In Jackson and Forte, he's got 2 established vets who have new situations that should be beneficial to their stats. Jackson plays behind a much better offense that has an excellent passing game to deflect some attention away from him. He probably won't be seeing too many 8-in-the-box schemes anymore. Forte, on the other hand, has the familiarity of playing with his teammates from last season but behind an upgraded line and a coach whose focus is on offense. If both these guys can stay healthy, it should be a top-10 season for both.

Now that you've drafted these guys, you use your 4th round pick on.... another running back? With no flex position, what is Sproles going to do on your bench? A very poor decision by Paul. He could have taken a WR to shore up his weakest position (Decker, Nicks, Bowe, Wayne, Colston, Welker, Torrey Smith, and Garcon were still available), especially since his WR1 is an injury prone Danny Amendola. Instead, he chose to back up his RB spot. We'll see how this decision plays out 7 weeks from now. Of course, Sanders, Broyles, Randle, LaFell, and Patterson are guys who are on the cusp of being everyday fantasy starters. It looks like the penchant to gamble on lottery tickets runs in the family.

Matthew Stafford could be a top-5 QB this season. He was extremely unlucky last season and the team just didn't play like the playoff team from 2011. Although he was taken after Kaep, Wilson, and Matt Ryan, he could easily eclipse all their numbers. Remember, he's one of 3 active players (along with Brees and Brady) to eclipse 5,000 passing yards in a season. I'm not saying he belongs next to them in the HOF yet, but I'm saying the potential has been shown. We'll see if he can return to form this year.

Draft Winner: Jacked Up! (Brian Cho)
With no gaping holes at any specific position, some sleepers that should make great reserves, and Janikowski as his kicker, Cho drafted a better team than most of us could at his draft position. Does this mean he'll be the favorite to win? You'll have to check next week.

Runner-up: The Powerhouse (Nelson Kim) - If the only hole is your RB2 spot, you can win the league. Don't believe me? In 2010 my RB2 was Jahvid Best and the ship was mine. Believe.

Draft Loser: Suck Mike Ditka (JY Lee)
Although his drafting skills have been getting better and better, he's still making some costly mistakes. He drafted Brady too high, the wrong RB (BJGE) in the Bengals offense when both were still on the board, drafted a TE too early after the elite options were gone, and drafted a mediocre defense before the last 2 rounds.

Runner-up: TIE
Funky Fresh (David Yim) - He took his defense and kicker way too early and his bench lacks some depth. And I don't think I've ever seen 2 DEF drafted by one team before...
Ben There Raped That (Paul Kim) - Not only did he make that egregious Sproles pick, he compounded it by taking ANOTHER RB in the 7th round. That's 4 RBs in 7 rounds when we can only play 2... Also, take enough WRs?

Sorry for any typos. I didn't proofread.

Don't forget to vote with a comment on the post below!!

Simon Kim