If you remember before week 1, I made some claims on some of the best, worst, and biggest surprise picks of the draft. We're 11 weeks into the season so let's see how some of these claims have aged. Will they be closer to wine or milk?
Wine - Spot On, I must be an oracle
Best Pick - Tet R5P7 - Cho
I'm actually personally upset about this one because he stole him 2 picks early. Tet's been nothing short of amazing in his rookie year: WR10 in total points, WR17 by average (when taking out outliers like Nabers (RIP)). He could continue to carry Cho through the playoffs.
Biggest Surprise - Rashee Rice - Eric
Eric's patience is paying off. Rice has been dominant since he's been back, performing as a true top 12 WR being a target monster and even getting red zone carries to further prop up his fantasy value. He was able to hang on at 3-3 through the suspension and he's just been dominating, going 5-1 since then.
Cheese - Mostly... but not all the way there
Best Pick - Swift R6P5 - Mike
Swift has been good but not quite the RB1 I predicted. He's been the RB16 by total points and RB13 by average (after taking out Skattebo (poor Giants)). Ben Johnson is working his magic as he's reunited with a former Lions player who is familiar with his system.
Worst Pick - Bowers R2P7 - Chris
While some may say this is an unfair assessment because he's missed most of the season with an injury, if you're a top 24 pick, missing games due to injury is just as harmful for your team. And honestly, other than an explosive 3 TD game, the weeks he has played have been underwhelming with 4 single digit performances out of 7 games.
Biggest Surprises - Early Rookie RB picks - Eric, Jon, David K
My take here was that it was kind of a lot to bank on rookies to perform to the level of a top 24 RB consistently. Omarion had some promise until an injury, Henderson has had a truly up and down season where he's shown explosiveness but hasn't earned the trust, and Harvey has showed burst but played behind Dobbins all year until the latter got hurt. I think the risk just wasn't worth it on any of these guys.
Biggest Surprises - Late QB Picks - Eric, Dan
I guess there wasn't a real prediction here but there was some skepticism about Herbert and Caleb being able to sustain as QB1s this season. Both actually started off looking like they could... and then they petered off for various reasons.
Eggs - Kinda? Maybe there's still time...
Worst Pick - Tee Higgins R3P4 - Paul
Tee hasn't been as bad as I expected, especially since Burrow went down. Flacco has given him usable numbers and although I think the price was still a little high, in a season with so much uncertainty at WR, Tee has stepped up the last 4 weeks (and probably this week as well with Chase out) to be a solid WR1/2. However, if anything happens to Flacco and Browning comes back, expect me to say "I told you so."
Biggest Surprises - Elite QB / TE Stack - David K, Jung, Chris, Simon (Kinda), Rich (Kinda)
Once again, not really any major prediction but the results have been so mixed I'll just call this a semi-miss. Jung is the only one currently in playoff position and some of them have really misfired and potentially cost their team the season.
Milk - Do you know anything about football?
Best Pick - Ladd McConkey R3P3 - Jon
Uhh... about this one. I still think this could have been true IF the Chargers o-line didn't die and IF Quentin Johnston hadn't suddenly developed hands and IF Gadsen (shoutout Syracuse) didn't come out of nowhere to be a top 5 TE. But alas, overall WR1 is most definitely a pipe dream.
Best Pick - Christian Kirk R11P4 - Paul
I don't understand how Kirk has fallen off this much. It wasn't so long ago that he was an impact fantasy player in Jacksonville and with how little time Stroud has had to throw behind a porous line, I thought he would feast on receptions in the slot. Injuries were a decent excuse to start but even when he's been back, he hasn't done anything.
Bonus Article: The Curse
What is happening to players that teams are being named after? Let's take a look:
Eric - At first Justin Herbert (Eric didn't change his name after having Justin Jefferson and although this may have just been him forgetting to change his team name, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he was just locked in around his QB1) looked great, and he got a high profile girlfriend, but week by week, his offensive linemen have been getting destroyed left and right. This has resulted in Herbert suffering, with hits to his body and his statlines.
Jung - "Suck my Bijan" may be the worst name but possibly the least affected by the curse. But he's been getting work stolen by Allgeier, Penix is out for the season, and the stumbling Falcons may just shut him down near the end of the season.
Paul - Saquon was incredible last year and nobody realistically expected him to repeat, but RB1 should have been a cakewalk with his line and talent. But instead, he's really struggled week to week and some he hasn't even been startable.
David K - Ridley was supposed to be the focal point for a young talent in Ward. And now? He's out for the season. Additionally, if you look closely at his team's logo, you'll see Shannon Sharpe making some claims and everyone mentioned in it hasn't been all that this season.
Simon - Starts the season with "Nabers Know My Name" and Malik proceeds to have a season ending knee injury. He then changes to "Friend of Bill (for the) W" after Croskey-Merritt shows some promise and Bill ends up getting benched as a 3rd option behind Rodriguez and McNichols.
Rich - Jayden Daniels is following up his second season a little too closely to another Washington legend's second season: RG3. He's spent more time getting hurt than delivering the results Rich wanted. And even when he's been on the field, he hasn't quite been the phenom he was last year.
Jon - When you first look at this you go "what do you mean Gibbs is cursed? Have you seen him thi sseason? He's dominating." You'd be right... BUT look at where Jon's team is in the standings. The curse hasn't affected the player so it's affecting the team he's on as a whole. Who knew naming your team after your star would prevent you from repeating?
Good luck to all!
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