Welcome back to the league!
We'll start off with some life updates as we always do:
- Jung had a 2nd son!
- Rich is expecting a 2nd!
- David K got married and bought a house!
- David Y had a son (2nd child)!
If there's anybody I missed, I do apologize. Please know that I always want to hear about the things in life that should be celebrated. As I'm getting older, I realize that life is short and we must appreciate the good things in life as they come. Don't be a stranger and reach out any time, especially to share good news!
Now for my first post, I felt kind of stuck on what to do. I was thinking about updating FPI but I didn't have time so let's just get through a quick draft analysis. Instead of doing a favorites column, let's just look at some of the best picks, worst picks, and surprises of the draft. Overall, I think everyone has gotten much better at drafting so we don't get the 3 QB or TE draft like we used to. But there's still plenty to dissect:
(Also, random point but I was reviewing last year's posts and my 2 dark horse candidates ended up meeting in the finals!)
Best Picks:
Never Gonna Gibbs You Up (Jon)
Round 3, Pick 3 - Ladd McConkey
Ladd has been getting a little bit disrespected in fantasy talk this summer but he's a true WR1 that put up great numbers to end the year last year. Herbert may tap into his racism as QBs in the past have (see Stafford, Matt to Kupp, Cooper) and just force feed Ladd to death. I don't see the Chargers being a juggernaut and winning by running the game all the time so he should have plenty of opportunities. He might not threaten for the triple crown like Chase did, but don't be surprised if he's one of the top 3 receivers by year end.
Jacked Up! (Cho)
Round 5, Pick 7 - Tetairoa McMillan
Here's another true WR1 that is in a sneaky good situation. Carolina will have to throw often and with Bryce's improvement over the back half of last year and Tet's clear edge over his competition, we might be seeing an OROY develop in Carolina. When I compare his ceiling to some of the WRs taken before him (e.g. Sutton, DeVonta, Ridley, Pickens, Wilson) I think he's ahead of all of them. Sure, some of them may be in more favorable real football situations, but for fantasy, Tet should feast.
BEST TEAM (Mike)
Round 6, Pick 5 - D'Andre Swift
While he is clearly not as talented as Gibbs, Swift is no slouch. Behind a much improved offensive line and reconnecting with Ben Johnson may be enough to launch him to RB1 status. Finding a player like that in the 6th round is how you win leagues.
Ja Ne Saquon (Paul)
Round 11, Pick 4 - Christian Kirk
While Jayden Higgins is getting all the love by fantasy pundits (and drafted a round earlier even in our league), I think Kirk is being supremely underrated. He's still at a prime age (28) and he gets to play the slot for an offense that should improve this year with C.J. getting much more control at the line of scrimmage. If the o-line is faulty again, expect the short routes to be their bread and butter where Kirk will live. When he's not injured, he's produced at a decent rate and should be a solid WR3 at the worst with WR2 upside. Don't expect a ton of TDs but his target share should keep him in the lineup.
Worst Picks:
#winnable (Chris)
Round 2, Pick 7 - Brock Bowers
It's hard for me to invest in a tight end in the first two rounds, but especially this year. I think the gap between the top TE and the next 3-4 won't be as it has in some of the previous years and with Jeanty added to this team, I can't see as much target funneling to Bowers. Another interesting wrinkle is that in Geno, they get a QB upgrade and usually, better QBs are better at finding all of their receivers / options while mediocre QBs focus on their top options. If you see how Mac Jones focused BTJ or Flacco focused on Downs, you can see how Minshew may have inflated Brock's stats last year. I don't think he will be bad but I think he's getting picked up at peak value and any regression may make this a costly pick with key RBs and WRs still available.
Ja Ne Saquon (Paul)
Round 3, Pick 4 - Tee Higgins
Another similar situation where I don't hate Tee but I think the asking price is too high here. Yes, it's a prolific offense with a great QB. But if you have players that are true WR1s in solid offenses (e.g. McLaurin) or a top tier QB (e.g. Daniels, Hurts) or RBs who own their backfield (Cook, Kamara), is this where you want to take that WR2? Even without mentioning his injury history or how cooked this team is if Burrow gets hurt, I think there's a lot of risk in drafting Tee at his ceiling.
NOTE: Honestly, there's not much more to write. Our league has gotten so much better at drafting that it's hard to find truly terrible picks. Even the ones up top aren't terrible. They're just ones where I think the value may not match the pick that was used.
Biggest Surprises:
In Time (Eric), Never Gonna Gibbs You Up (Jon), Ridley's Parlay (David K)
Round 3, Pick 11 - Omarion Hampton
Round 4, Pick 10 - TreVeyon Henderson
Round 5, Pick 1 - RJ Harvey
I'm not necessarily saying these are bad picks but all these rookies have serious question marks for me to be drafted this high. By taking them all in essentially the first 4 rounds, you're expecting a surefire RB1 or 2. I trust rookie running backs that are clearly going to be the RB1 but at best, these are split backfields. Omarion has to deal with Najee, who isn't sexy, but may be a true thorn in the side for Omarion's volume, especially if Roman trusts the old vet. TreVeyon is on a NE offense that's expected to improve but will they really be that good? And even if they are, is Josh McDaniels ready to hand things off to a rookie when he still has Rhamondre, who was extremely successful the last time they were paired together? And RJ Harvey seems like he has the least competition and the best line to run behind but barring a true season ending injury from Dobbins, I can't see Harvey running away with 60%+ of the touches. Like I said, I think as the season goes on, these could pay off but it feels like they're being drafted closer to the ceiling, which puts a lot of pressure on them to perform. Could Kenneth Walker, Pacheco, or Swift have been better picks for their positions? We'll find out as the season progresses.
In Time (Eric)
Round 6, Pick 2 - Rashee Rice
This may end up being a league winner. It could also put Eric in a hole for the first 6 weeks. I don't hate the pick because the upside is insane if he can return to true WR1 form but coming off a knee injury and now needing maybe a couple of post-suspension weeks to get back into form while Mahomes develops a rapport with other receivers may be a bit expensive of a price if Eric starts the season 1-5 or 2-4. But if Eric can be .500+ and adds a WR1 in the middle of the season? Might as well hand him the trophy.
In Time (Eric), Flonkerton (Dan)
Round 9, Pick 11 - Justin Herbert
Round 9, Pick 12 - Caleb Williams
The last 2 teams to take QBs ended up with guys who are extremely talented but have huge question marks as to how they'll perform. These two probably have some of the widest range of outcomes in the league. I think the biggest surprise was that neither of these teams took a second QB in case this "wait for a QB" strategy failed. If they do fail, both of these teams may be hunting the waiver wire for a hero like last year's Baker Mayfield. (On another note, Dan's strategy this year was so unlike him as he usually secures a top TE and QB. Will see how it pans out for him. Speaking of this...)
The Elite QB - TE Stack
All In
- Ridley's Parlay (David K) - Jackson (3rd) + McBride (2nd)
- Easy Breece-y Beautiful (Jung) - Allen (3rd) + LaPorta (4th)
- #winnable (Chris) - Burrow (4th) + Bowers (2nd)
Kind Of?
- Nabers Know My Name (Simon) - Mahomes (6th) + Kittle (4th)
- J-Daniel Tiger's Neighborhood (Rich) - Daniels (3rd) + Hockenson (7th)
Investing your top 4-5 picks into these two 1-player-start positions can be an interesting strategy. We've seen a couple of managers consistently use this (most notable Dan, Simon, and Mike) in the past but we've got quite a few this year. The upside is obvious: you're going into most matchups with the confidence in 2 positions and hoping the variance in the 5 WR/RBs is enough to wash out and give you the win. The downside is that you wasted key draft capital on players that may not have as much of a marginal advantage as other positions. There must have been a bit more uncertainty in the skill positions this year as we saw a lot more teams chase this strategy. Will it work? Only time will tell.
Good luck to all!
