Week 13 - Happy Thanksgiving!

 Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and enjoyed a full day of football (what in the world was Eberflus thinking? How are the Giants this bad? Can Miami ever win a cold weather game?).

It's probably too late to do a MOTW since all but one matchup has had players play and the one MOTW that would be available has an already eliminated team. So instead, let me show you some manager-level stats. I know you guys have already seen FPI (and I might do an updated one for next year) but this analysis is a little bit more straight to the point.

The Premise

What is the goal of every season? To make the playoffs and eventually win the ship. So we can think of success in fantasy in the following ways:

1. Make the playoffs. If you can't make the playoffs, you have no chance at competing for the prize.

2. Winning money. This means finishing first, second, or third so that one the season, you're ending up /neutral at worst.

3. Making it to the finals. Getting to the final game nets you a positive return on your initial fee.

4. Winning this ship. Obviously, the ultimate goal and the biggest payout.

Now clearly the odds for each of these, assuming everyone is evenly matched and has the same shot at winning each year, is very clear as well:

Make playoffs - 6/12 (6 out of 12 teams make it)

Win Money - 3/12 (1st, 2nd, or 3rd)

Make Finals - 2/12

Win - 1/12

So in theory, based on the number of years you've played, it should be relatively easy to see if you are under or overperforming your expectations. If you've played 12 years, you should have made the playoffs 6 times, won money 3 times, made the finals twice, and won once.

But we all know that everyone isn't at the same skill level. Some managers are better than others. But by how much? Let's take a look.

The Data

Seasons played
14	Wins	Finals	Money	Playoffs
Simon	21.4%	35.7%	35.7%	71.4%
Rich	21.4%	28.6%	32.1%	50.0%
Dan	10.7%	35.7%	50.0%	78.6%
Jon	0.0%	7.1%	21.4%	42.9%
Mike	7.1%	14.3%	28.6%	64.3%
Eric	14.3%	14.3%	39.3%	64.3%
Cho	14.3%	28.6%	42.9%	50.0%
13
Paul	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
David K	0.0%	7.7%	15.4%	23.1%
11
David Y	0.0%	9.1%	9.1%	36.4%
10
Jung	5.0%	10.0%	10.0%	50.0%
6
Chris	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%
Target	8.3%	16.7%	25.0%	50.0%

Before we go into some analysis, there's one more sub-section I'd like to show: what happens once a team makes the playoffs? So let's assume a team has made it. Now the percentages change: you have a 3/6 chance of money, 2/6 chance of finals, and 1/6 chance of winning. So who are the best playoff performers?

Seasons played
14	Win	Finals	Money
Simon	30.0%	50.0%	50.0%
Rich	42.9%	57.1%	64.3%
Dan	13.6%	45.5%	63.6%
Jon	0.0%	16.7%	50.0%
Mike	11.1%	22.2%	44.4%
Eric	22.2%	22.2%	61.1%
Cho	28.6%	57.1%	85.7%
13
Paul	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
David K	0.0%	33.3%	66.7%
11
David Y	0.0%	25.0%	25.0%
10
Jung	10.0%	20.0%	20.0%
6
Chris	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Target	16.7%	33.3%	50.0%

The Analysis

- Simon, Rich, and Cho are the model managers in this league. They are at or above the target rate for every single statistical category. The main differences between their teams:

- Simon has never placed third. Finals or bust.

- Rich barely makes the playoffs but he's the most successful at converting for a ship once he's in. A bit of Ricky Bobby flair.

- Cho is the best at ensuring some type of payout once he's made the playoffs by converting to money at a whopping 85.7%

- Dan is a great manager but can't quite win the whole thing at the expected rate once he makes the playoffs.

- Eric doesn't get to the finals at the rate he should. But when he does? He wins.

- Mike makes the playoffs at an extremely high clip (tied for 3rd best) but his team aren't built for the postseason.

- Jung surprisingly makes the playoffs at an acceptable rate but seems like he's barely slipping in as he makes no noise once he's in there.

- David K. struggles overall to make the playoffs but when he does, he seems to get his money's worth.

- Jon makes money at an acceptable clip once he's in but the finals and the ship elude him. He's the only original manager who has yet to taste a championship (could this be the year?!?!)

- Paul, David Y, and Chris... there's not much to write about them other than a big thank you for supporting our prize pool every year. Let's thank them, in the spirit of the holiday, for their donations.

Hope everyone gets to enjoy the rest of their holiday and enjoy some more football on a special Friday edition.

Good luck to all!