Week 13 - Happy Thanksgiving!

 Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and enjoyed a full day of football (what in the world was Eberflus thinking? How are the Giants this bad? Can Miami ever win a cold weather game?).

It's probably too late to do a MOTW since all but one matchup has had players play and the one MOTW that would be available has an already eliminated team. So instead, let me show you some manager-level stats. I know you guys have already seen FPI (and I might do an updated one for next year) but this analysis is a little bit more straight to the point.

The Premise

What is the goal of every season? To make the playoffs and eventually win the ship. So we can think of success in fantasy in the following ways:

1. Make the playoffs. If you can't make the playoffs, you have no chance at competing for the prize.

2. Winning money. This means finishing first, second, or third so that one the season, you're ending up /neutral at worst.

3. Making it to the finals. Getting to the final game nets you a positive return on your initial fee.

4. Winning this ship. Obviously, the ultimate goal and the biggest payout.

Now clearly the odds for each of these, assuming everyone is evenly matched and has the same shot at winning each year, is very clear as well:

Make playoffs - 6/12 (6 out of 12 teams make it)

Win Money - 3/12 (1st, 2nd, or 3rd)

Make Finals - 2/12

Win - 1/12

So in theory, based on the number of years you've played, it should be relatively easy to see if you are under or overperforming your expectations. If you've played 12 years, you should have made the playoffs 6 times, won money 3 times, made the finals twice, and won once.

But we all know that everyone isn't at the same skill level. Some managers are better than others. But by how much? Let's take a look.

The Data

Seasons played
14	Wins	Finals	Money	Playoffs
Simon	21.4%	35.7%	35.7%	71.4%
Rich	21.4%	28.6%	32.1%	50.0%
Dan	10.7%	35.7%	50.0%	78.6%
Jon	0.0%	7.1%	21.4%	42.9%
Mike	7.1%	14.3%	28.6%	64.3%
Eric	14.3%	14.3%	39.3%	64.3%
Cho	14.3%	28.6%	42.9%	50.0%
13
Paul	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
David K	0.0%	7.7%	15.4%	23.1%
11
David Y	0.0%	9.1%	9.1%	36.4%
10
Jung	5.0%	10.0%	10.0%	50.0%
6
Chris	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%
Target	8.3%	16.7%	25.0%	50.0%

Before we go into some analysis, there's one more sub-section I'd like to show: what happens once a team makes the playoffs? So let's assume a team has made it. Now the percentages change: you have a 3/6 chance of money, 2/6 chance of finals, and 1/6 chance of winning. So who are the best playoff performers?

Seasons played
14	Win	Finals	Money
Simon	30.0%	50.0%	50.0%
Rich	42.9%	57.1%	64.3%
Dan	13.6%	45.5%	63.6%
Jon	0.0%	16.7%	50.0%
Mike	11.1%	22.2%	44.4%
Eric	22.2%	22.2%	61.1%
Cho	28.6%	57.1%	85.7%
13
Paul	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
David K	0.0%	33.3%	66.7%
11
David Y	0.0%	25.0%	25.0%
10
Jung	10.0%	20.0%	20.0%
6
Chris	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Target	16.7%	33.3%	50.0%

The Analysis

- Simon, Rich, and Cho are the model managers in this league. They are at or above the target rate for every single statistical category. The main differences between their teams:

- Simon has never placed third. Finals or bust.

- Rich barely makes the playoffs but he's the most successful at converting for a ship once he's in. A bit of Ricky Bobby flair.

- Cho is the best at ensuring some type of payout once he's made the playoffs by converting to money at a whopping 85.7%

- Dan is a great manager but can't quite win the whole thing at the expected rate once he makes the playoffs.

- Eric doesn't get to the finals at the rate he should. But when he does? He wins.

- Mike makes the playoffs at an extremely high clip (tied for 3rd best) but his team aren't built for the postseason.

- Jung surprisingly makes the playoffs at an acceptable rate but seems like he's barely slipping in as he makes no noise once he's in there.

- David K. struggles overall to make the playoffs but when he does, he seems to get his money's worth.

- Jon makes money at an acceptable clip once he's in but the finals and the ship elude him. He's the only original manager who has yet to taste a championship (could this be the year?!?!)

- Paul, David Y, and Chris... there's not much to write about them other than a big thank you for supporting our prize pool every year. Let's thank them, in the spirit of the holiday, for their donations.

Hope everyone gets to enjoy the rest of their holiday and enjoy some more football on a special Friday edition.

Good luck to all!

Week 12 - Preseason Predictions: Where are they now?

At the start of the season, I made some bold predictions on where teams would end up by the end of the year. In today's post, we'll look back on those predictions to see how they're doing and predict where they'll end up at the end of the season.

Favorites:

Jacked Up! (Cho)

Current Standing: 11th place

Playoff Chances: Extremely low

Cho has had quite a disappointing season. Chubb didn't return to the form before his injury, Deebo and Waddle have been slightly underwhelming, and Andrews had an incredibly slow start before rounding in to form. All that has combined in to a 3-8 record and being all but eliminated from the playoffs. His PF is actually within striking distance of the top 6 teams and if he is able to win out and get to 6-8 and some funky stuff happens with the teams above him, there's a small, although not likely, chance that he could get in. He has 2 matchups coming up against Eric (currently 6th) and Mike (currently 8th) that should act as elimination games before the playoffs start.

Future Prediction: My guess is that the hole is too big and that this is one season Cho will have to watch from the sidelines.

In Time (Eric)

Current Standing: 6th place

Playoff Chances: 50/50

Eric's team has been a bit boom bust this year, scoring in the 80s 4 times but also topping 135 3 times (with a high of 151). He's just barely hanging on to the number 6 spot with a few teams ready to pounce should he slip. He gets direct matchups with Mike and Cho, where wins would have a dual effect of helping to stave them off from taking his spot and creating a buffer from the other chasers. He is in control of his destiny so let's see if he can get to the postseason.

Future Prediction: Sneaks in to the playoffs as a 5 or 6 seed but can't get to the championship game.

Dark Horse:

To infinity and bijans (Jon)

Current Standing: 1st place

Playoff Chances: Locked In

What a season it's been for Jon. He was undefeated for 8 weeks and only lost to Rich when he dropped 130+ on Jon. If you look at his matchups, there has been an element of luck to Jon's wins as many teams seem to have subpar performances against him (only 3 have broken 100 and 6 are under 90). But that doesn't take away the fact that he has the most points for and his roster is stacked, even absorbing the loss of Godwin.

Future Prediction: Getting the bye, Jon cruises in to the championship game. As weird as it seems to type, I think his performance in the ship depends on who he faces.

Ra-Dogging It (Paul)

Current Standing: 3rd place

Playoff Chances: All but locked in

Another member of the Kim-Lee clan is dominating this season. With a ridiculous WR corp, Paul has primed himself for his best season ever. Of all the teams, he might be the happiest to start getting some of his injured players back with Nico and Pacheco able to join his team for the stretch run and the playoffs, nobody should want to face this team at full strength. Whether or not Paul can manage his team to the ship will be his biggest test thus far.

Future Prediction: Still fighting for the bye (and a direct confrontation with Rich in Week 13 should be one of the matchups of the year), I think Paul just misses out. But I think his team still has the legs to make it to a money game.

Cellar Dweller

#winnable (Chris)

Current Standing: 4th place

Playoff Chances: Looks good thanks to the forgiving schedule

Chris has to have one of the most interesting success stories of the year. I flamed him hard for drafting 2 TEs but somehow he's made it work. I'm surprised he didn't move at least one of them to solidify other parts of his roster but I guess if it's gotten him to where he is now, maybe don't fix it? My only precaution for Chris is that while he is 4th, he's only 1 game away from falling out of playoff contention and he's 7th in PF, showing that he's been more lucky than good. Facing David and Jung should give him at least 1 win to help solidify his spot but I wouldn't be breathing easy if I were Chris.

Future Prediction: Sneaks into the playoffs and leaves someone else with more points scored on the season out.

BEST TEAM (Mike)

Current Standing: 8th place

Playoff Chances: Tough climb but not eliminated

Mike's interesting zero WR strategy hasn't been a resounding success but it's still got him within striking distance of the playoffs. Mike's been a bit unlucky as he once again has the highest points against on the season (continuing a trend from last year) and the teams playing against him would aggregate into the 2nd best team in our league today. The dichotomy of his team this year and his team last year is that last year, his team was stacked with too many WRs and he didn't know which ones to play. This year, thanks to his strategy, he's been struggling at the position. At least until now. His trade deadline move for CD may go down as what saves his season. Is it too late? Only time will tell.

Future Prediction: Just misses playoffs due to some bad luck and facing Jon gives him the last loss that fully eliminates him.

One Last Head Scratcher:

Buoyed by Jr(s) (David K)

Current Standing: 9th place

Playoff Chances: Needs some help / miracles

If only he had drafted Jayden Daniels. Obviously it's hard to say if that would have completely altered his season but the search for a consistent QB has really hampered David's team's ability to perform this season. He passed on Daniels for Spears. He passed on Herbert / Purdy / Goff for Hollywood Brown. He passed on Tua for Corum. He's tried Stafford, Darnold, and Tua to solidfy that spot and eventually dropped all 3 guys he drafted (Spears got dropped 4 times. Stop playing with his heart, David). His late trade for Burrow is exactly what he needed but he might not have time to dig himself out of the hole he's in.

Future Prediction: Misses the playoffs as he drops at least one of his next 3 games.

Good luck to all!

Week 11 - MOTW

If you read my post last week, you were expecting a manager rating or a pre-season pick review. Well, you're getting neither because for some reason I'm really proactive this week and writing this on a Wednesday. So wait one more week (or more) and enjoy another MOTW.

MOTW

3. Go Go Bower Rangers (Rich) vs. 8. BEST TEAM (Mike)

I was going to feature Cho again as he continues his streak of "must-win" games against teams that are close to him in the rankings but went a different direction this time. Rich has been having an incredible season, even though he's flying under the radar due to the dominance of the top 2 teams. But he's the only one to hand Jon a loss and he currently has the longest active win streak. Mike on the other hand has been one of the unluckiest players (again). Teams playing against him would aggregate to the 3rd most PF in our league this season. Can Mike overcome his bad luck and an interesting draft strategy (Zero WR) to sneak in and cause havoc?

QB: Rich ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Mike

Most weeks I'd like to lean Josh Allen but he's playing a tough KC defense in a game I expect to actually be kind of low scoring as each tests the other's mettle. On the other side, Hurts gets the Commanders on a short week so expect a tired defense and a few tush push opportunities that he should easily convert. Let's just all this one a wash.

WR/TE: Rich 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ Mike

Rich might have one of the best pass catching corps (even besting Paul's due to his TE being a consensus top 3 TE while Paul has barely playable TE2s) with 3 WR1s who seem to be matchup proof (as long as they're not punching opponents in the head). Mike's zero WR strategy was an admirable gambit but other than Zay, it's been tough sledding. Tee is pretty good when healthy but that's a big "when." The matchups don't break well either as Rich's WRs are in games where they should feast while Mike's best receiver could get the attention of Joey Porter Jr. It's also crazy to say that LaPorta (who Mike was banking on for his strat) is actually a loser in this positional battle as Bowers comes off a bye with a chance to make some noise against a mediocre Miami LB corp.

RB: Rich ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Mike

If you go Zero WR, then your backfield must be good... right? Well, Saquon says yes. The rest of Mike's backs.... TBD. Dowdle gets volume but he's a low end RB2 at best. Unfortunately, his other option, Rachaad White (who has an awesome story of how he came to the NFL), is on bye this week. Rich's backfield options aren't awe inspiring but they should be RB2/3s just based on volume. Saquon is a clear head above everyone in this room. Edge, Mike.

K/DST: Rich ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Mike

I actually like both kickers here. Bates should just get a ton of run and he's on a high after hitting some clutch FGs last week. Like I mentioned earlier, I expect a gritty game in Orchard Park so Bass should be getting plenty of opportunities in a close game. The defenses make the matchup and I have to lean Mike unless Rich changes something. While I think Chicago will get a boost from firing Waldron, I think they're still too disjointed and Green Bay should be able to force sacks and TOs. Pittsburgh is a great defense and do play well against Lamar, but facing Lamar and Henry together is something they haven't experienced yet. While they may get a few sacks and even a TO, I'm afraid of how many points the Ravens will score.

Winner: Rich

The pass catchers are what allow Rich to run away with this one. I expect the difference in score for the pass catchers to be over 30 points. That'll be a tough deficit for anyone to make up, even a back as great as Barkley.

Good luck to all!

MOTW Record: 3-1

Week 10 - MOTW

Look at that! Back to back weeks. I should pay myself on the back.

Next week, we'll take a look at either another way to look at manager performance (other than FPI) or we can review my pre-season picks. I'll play it by ear. Or maybe I'll forget and not post anything. Anything can happen!

MOTW

10. Jacked Up (Cho) vs. 11 Easy Breece-y Beautiful (Jung)

Cho is getting featured 2 weeks in a row but not for good reason. Another loss last week has put him at 2-7 and he gets to face another 2-7 team in Jung's just to fight for a chance at the playoffs. The good news is, the 6th spot is currently 4-5 so both these teams are only 2 games back. The bad news is, one of them have to lose and if you get to 8 losses, I think you're pretty much eliminated as I don't think a sub-500 team has made it to the playoffs (don't fact check me) and you'd end up being 3 games behind with 4 games to play. So really, this is the beginning of the playoffs for both these teams.

QB: Cho ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Jung

Jayden has been unstoppable but this week might be his toughest challenge yet. He gets a Steelers defense that has been clicking and I'm expecting another tricky game plan from Tomlin. Stroud gets a stingy Lions defense so I don't see a lot of upside here either. Expect sub-20 from both.

WR/TE: Cho 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ Jung

Who knew that losing Tillman would impact this matchup so much? He's legitimately been a WR2/3 with upside since Jameis came in to play. Now Jung has to play Mike Williams in a new system or Jameson coming off of a suspension. Neither seem like great options to go against Deebo in a WR room without Aiyuk and Chase, who should tear this weak Ravens secondary to shreds.

RB: Cho ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯  Jung

Kyren finally didn't score in a game this season but I expect him to bounce back and Chubba should be happy now that he's gotten a fat 8m+/year contract in a game where they should lean on him to win. But Jung's twosome of Breece Hall in a game they should be ahead and DMont being the steady TD machine against a weakened Texans D should tip the scales in Jung's favor.

K/DST: Cho ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Jung

Once again no gamebreakers at these positions but I have to give a slight edge to Cho as I expect KC to dominate Bo Nix and Miami should be tough for the Rams to match up with. If Jung's not careful, the Rams may end up costing him points.

Winner: Cho

Cho bounces back and tries to run the table to make the playoffs. Jung's season looks like it'll be in the rearview mirror, along with David Y, as he prepares his team for the consolation gift card.

Good luck to all!

MOTW Record: 2-1