Week 17 - A First-Time Champion

Wow, what an end to the semi-finals. First, a huge loss for Rich as Hurts exited the game in the first quarter. There's no guarantee that he puts up 21+ points if he stays in the game but I'm sure Rich would have liked those chances over having no shot at any points from the QB position. And in the other semi-final matchup, Dan showed that he might have won that trade with BTJ seemingly taking him to the ship with another monstrous performance. But with Baker and Bucky going on Sunday night, Jon had a chance to turn the tables around. He needed 40 points from the duo and he got 42, giving him a great come from behind victory, even if the Bucs weren't able to get their own win.

And now we go to a crazy end to a crazy season. We'll have a first-time champion AND a first-time Kim-Lee family champion. After being the laughingstock of the league for so long (and Jon trying to distance himself from his family, at least, for fantasy purposes), one finally gets to write a storybook ending and etch their name into the annals of history. Who will come out on top?

MOTW

1. To infinity and bijans (Jon) vs. 2. Ra-Dogging It (Paul)

QB: Jon ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Paul

So I'm kind of cheating because obviously Lamar has already played but I actually think this gap won't be as big as people are expecting. Baker has been a top 5 QB all season and against an improved Carolina team that has surprisingly been involved in shootouts, I expect to see 3+ TDs from Baker as they continue to fight for a playoff spot. Most weeks, Lamar is the clear favorite but on this week, expect a rather tough challenge (within 5 points) from Baker.

WR/TE: Jon ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Paul

Paul's WR group is probably the biggest reason he's gotten to this point. Amon-Ra and Terry have legit been WR1s and Nico probably would have been if he stayed healthy all year. Nico disappointed on Christmas day but it was met with a poor performance by DK on Thursday night. If you look at the remaining options, Kupp and Jauan are in sneaky shootout games so while their normal fantasy opportunity isn't as high as Paul's receivers, they should be able to close the gap a bit. McBride helps to close the gap a bit as the Cardinals should focus on getting him the ball after he had almost no opportunities last week but Paul has chosen one of the hottest TE hands in Chigo to counteract that advantage. Can Chigo continue his ridiculous recent streak of play? This is a gamble to throw a guy like this in during champ week but I like the play.

RB: Jon 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ Paul

This is where the pendulum swings the other way. If Kamara had been healthy and kept some early season form, then I think this green circle goes even further left but even without him, this backfield is rock solid. Bijan has basically been an RB1 every week in the back half of the season. Bucky should be in the same boat but Todd can't seem to commit to one RB in that backfield. At least it's not a 3-way committee and both Bucky and White get to eat. I will say that in most weeks, Pollard and Conner shouldn't be rated this low. But with Tyjae's recent burst performances, the Titans having nothing to play for, and his recent ankle issues, I don't see a lot of upside here. Mix that in with Conner not being 100% and I'd be surprised if both these backs can total up to Bijan's points.

K/DST: Jon ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Paul

Aubrey might be the only kicker in the league that can actually swing the green dot towards his owner's side. He can make anything from 65 yards in and in an offense that can move but not score TDs, he's in a near perfect situation to rack up points. As for defenses, I think both of these defenses are middling but they're both playing terrible offenses and are fighting for playoff positioning. I think Maye is a tougher matchup than DTJ but it's not by much.

Winner: Jon

I think the strength of his backfield and Baker being able to neutralize Lamar is going to be huge in Jon's quest for his first title. While he had some key members go down (Godwin, Kamara, Dobbins), his deep and complete team may have just enough to get him his long awaited first ring.

Good luck to all!

Week 15 - Playoffs?!!? We're talking about playoffs?!?!!

Wow, what an ending to the season. Cho and David K never really had a chance but Eric did his job to win, just didn't score enough points to overthrow the people in front of him. When we look at the 3 teams that were fighting for the 2 spots, Chris looked like he might be in trouble. Simon had clinched by Sunday night thanks to D-Hop's TD and Mike, on the back of Josh Allen, looked to be in great position to steal the 6 spot: he had a 9 point lead with Tee and CD going against Chase. Even if Chase exploded, the other 2 could absorb the points.... right? All game, they did a great job of going back and forth, with CD's early TD creating a pretty big buffer. But it all changed when the Bengals fumbled a punt and shortly after, Burrow hit Chase for a 40 yard TD down the sideline. Dallas and Mike had one more chance and CD did have a grab on the last drive, but it wasn't enough as Cho completed the comeback on another massive game from Chase. So as I predicted before, Chris did end up stealing a spot from a more deserving team (ended up 9th in PF).

But this is a winner's game, so this week, we will focus on the 4 teams trying to get to the money rounds. We'll take a look at each team and not necessarily look at predictions but maybe ask a probing question around their team that could affect their playoff run. We'll start with the top seed:

3. Go Go Bower Rangers (Rich)

Question 1: Can he make it through the untimely injuries?

Rich's team has been one of the most explosive all year. His receiving corp is second to none and his backfield has had enough firepower to keep up with most teams. But two injuries in the past couple of weeks has shaken up the core of his team.

First, Pickens is dealing with a hamstring injury that could last a couple of weeks. The other problem with hamstring injuries is that they have a high rate of reinjury if the player returns too early and hampers their in game performance even when they return. For Rich's team, this actually might be a blessing in disguise. With JSN's recent rise in the Seahawks depth chart, the injury may make the roster decision for Rich. He can start JJettas, Puka, and JSN without having to do deep split, weather, and matchup research.

The other injury might be a little more significant. Kenneth Walker is now dealing with a calf injury, which similar to the hamstring, has a high rate of reinjury if they come back too soon. They might play it safe and keep him out a couple weeks, especially with the way Charbonnet is running. While the Seahawks can use Charbonnet, Rich doesn't have the same level of backup available. Between Tank on a floundering Jags offense, Gus who looks like he doesn't have any more legs to give, and Patrick Taylor who might just get injured by the SF curse before the game even starts, the options are not appealing. Navigating this injury could be what makes or breaks his team. Unless....

Question 2: Will Bowers be the x-factor throughout the playoffs?

Can Brock Bowers continue at his TE1 pace? Other than Kittle and McBride, he's become a true matchup advantage at the TE position. While he is somewhat QB-proof, he'll need at least some competent QB play to extract the value he's shown so far. If AOC goes down and Ridder ends up running the offense... well, we saw how detrimental he was to London, Pitts, and Bijan in Atlanta. If AOC can stay on, expect a high number of targets and usage against favorable matchups for the entire playoff run to help Bowers be the one who that makes up any deficit from any injury related performance dips at the other positions.

4. Rajanigandha (Dan)

Question 1: What can this team rely on?

Usually when you look at a playoff team, they have their own calling cards: a matchup winner or a source of many points you can count on week in and week out. Jon's team has 2 top 6 backs and a top 3 TE. Paul has 3 WR1s and one of the only QBs that can challenge for QB1. And then you look at Dan's team and wonder 'what exactly is this team's fastball?' Gibbs is a solid RB1 and Aaron Jones has been better than expected but the latter has been fading a bit down the stretch. He has 2 fringe QB1s based on matchups. His receivers might be number 1 options on their teams but it's low quality volume in uninspiring offenses. If I'm Dan, I'm a little concerned that there's no position I can go out there and say "I'm banking on this matchup to get me through this week." It's gotten him this far but looking at his PF, there may have been some matchup luck in play.

Question 2: How does his trade affect his playoff run?

To review the trade:

Jon receives Nabers, Legette

Dan receives Meyers, BTJ

The good news for Dan is that both receivers he received in the trade are startable for his team. But the bad news is, that may be more indicative of the state of his WRs than the quality that he got back. Don't get me wrong, I think both those guys are WR2/3 that can fluctuate a bit based on matchup and which QB is throwing to them but with Minshew, Lawrence, and potentially AOC struggling with health issues, their floor and ceilings take a hit with Ridder and Maye. The one bright spot for Dan is that Legette has basically been valueless and Nabers, although he has a higher ceiling out of anyone in that trade, is dealing with this DeVito / Lock mess after the DJ fiasco. So all in all, while it looked like a bigger trade at the time, it may not make a huge difference in the outcome of Dan, and possibly Jon's, team.

5. All Gas No Drake Car CRashee (Simon)

Question 1: Is the CMC injury a blessing in disguise?

Simon waited 9 whole weeks for CMC to return and when he did... he was okay. He got the volume he needed but he didn't have the same explosiveness or nose for the end zone like he did last year. With no Trent Williams, holes were harder to find. He finally looked like himself in the Buffalo game... until he slid down with a non-contact injury. Losing the first overall draft pick is tough to recover from but for Simon's team, that might actually have been what saved him.

If CMC were still around, I can't see a scenario where he's benched. That means one of Chase Brown or Josh Jacobs (and I guess Tyrone Tracy) will be sitting on the bench each week, most likely outscoring CMC. Simon's hand has been forced to play Josh Jacobs and Chase Brown for the rest of the season and that's not a bad position to be in. The fantasy overlords may have taken the decision for him to harm his team out of his own hands.

Question 2: Who is the WR3 for this team?

Simon was adamant not to include D-Hop in trades because he truly believed he could be a solid WR2 with low WR1 upside on given weeks. But alas, nobody beats father time... or the Chiefs. The Chiefs offense has been crumbling in efficiency and D-Hop just hasn't had as much juice as he has in the past. He's a middling WR3 with a possibility of low WR2 upside. Simon's other option is Josh Downs but the Indy receiving hierarchy is a little bit muddled at the moment. Pittman is the defacto alpha but he doesn't really have the chops to be a number 1. Pierce has turned into a deep ball monster but he lacks week to week consistency. Downs plays the slot but he really should be the number one. He separates the best he's got downfield skills, and he's got burst that the other receivers don't have. But does A-Rich know that? Flacco made Downs into a WR2 but with A-Rich, it's not as clear.

While his backfield is decided, his WR3 slot could be a week-to-week guessing game that if he chooses wrong, he might end up missing out on the money.

6. #winnable (Chris)

Question 1: Who is the TE1 for the playoff run?

I still don't understand the logic of drafting Kittle and Kelce if you're not going to trade one but I guess it's worked for Chris so far. But now he might have a bigger dilemma on his hands: who is his TE through the playoffs? Granted, both should be top 6 options in a wasteland position so he's picking from two quality options, not scraping the garbage bin. Nonetheless, the one week he chooses wrong could be deadly for a team that doesn't have much cushion for mistakes against the best competition. Let's see if Chris can manage the TE position correctly through the playoffs.

Question 2: A lot of his roster is made up of not-as-big-names but true fantasy value players (Ridley - WR28 Total, Mooney - WR13 Total, Harris - RB18 Total). Can they continue to perform in win-or-go-home games?

Let's take a look specifically at the 3 I mentioned as they really are the make or break for this team. First up, Ridley. He has been super boom or bust (6 games under 7 points, 3 games over 17 points) but when he booms, he's been incredibly useful. And when I look at his schedule (Cin, Indy, Jax), I see three porous defenses that are going to be easy to score on. Expect Ridley to not only continue but potentially boom for the rest of the playoffs.

Next up is Mooney, one of the waiver wire pickups of the year. Who knew that Kirko Chainz would turn Mooney into a fantasy star? Kirk has been struggling lately but he won't stop targeting Mooney. With games against LV, NYG, Was, I see shootout or easy passing game potential. He may not necessarily find the end zone a ton but between the 20s, expect a lot of volume and a lot of points.

Lastly, Najee has quietly been useful, even as Warren has ramped up his production and Russ has the pass game cooking. However, I think this train might be coming to a stop. He's got Phi, Bal, KC, all solid run defenses that are playing for playoff seeding. The yards are going to come by tough and the Steelers may be underdogs in all these games, necessitating them to throw the ball more. Najee won't be of much use to Chris but with the backup option being ETN, Chris may just have to ride with Najee.

Good luck to all!

Week 14 - Final Playoff Push

We're here. We made it through the topsy turvy season to get to the week of playoff eve. I think it's so crazy that there are bye weeks in week 14 with so many teams fighting for a playoff spot. And we're talking about some key players. We've got the Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, and Commanders. That's a lot of startable players missing for teams that are fighting to make the playoffs. So what are the scenarios going into the last week? Let's take a look at each team that hasn't locked in, how the bye is affecting them, and what they need to get in.

5. #winnable (Chris)

What he needs: Win and in. If he loses, either needs one of Simon or Mike to lose or if they both win, make up the point differential on one of them (currently down 27 points to Mike)

How the byes affect him: Mixon (RB1)

Who he plays: 3rd place, Rich

Prediction: Like I mentioned before in a previous post, I think even with his low PF (8th in the league and not far from being 10th), he's going to steal a spot from a more deserving team.

6. All Gas No Drake Car CRashee (Simon)

What he needs: Win and Mike loses or Both Win and maintain his PF advantage (50 points) or both lose and all 5-8 teams lose or don't make up the point differential)

How the byes affect him: Nix (QB1/2), Downs (WR 3/4)

Who he plays: 11th place, Jung

Prediction: Hate predicting my own team but feels like I could squeak by in a close one or I'm going to lose and pray for Cho to beat Mike (but not by too much) and for Paul to beat Eric's bye-decimated team.

7. BEST TEAM (Mike)

What he needs: Win and Simon loses or both win and make up the PF (50 points) or both lose but become the PF leader amongst 6-8 teams 

How the byes affect him: Zay (WR2/3)

Who he plays: 9th place, Cho

Prediction: One of the teams affected the least by the bye weeks, Mike has to feel good about his chances.

8. In Time (Eric)

What he needs: Win and losses by Simon and Mike and make up the PF differential (23 points to Simon)

How the byes affect him: Henry (RB1), Rhamondre (RB2), Sutton (WR1/2)

Who he plays: 2nd place, Paul

Prediction: Oof. Losing an entire backfield to byes hurts, especially when their current replacements are backup running backs (Charbonnet and Braelon). To add to that, Sutton, who has been on a heater, also sits out, although DeVonta may be back to fill that void. I don't see a playoff future for Eric.

9. Jacked Up! (Cho)

What he needs: Win (which automatically makes Mike lose) and Simon to lose and make up the PF (87 to Simon) and have either Eric lose or score 65 points fewer than himself.

How the byes affect him: Stroud (QB1), Andrews (TE1/2)

Who he plays: 7th place, Mike

Prediction: Even if he can beat Mike, he would need a monster performance. We're talking probably 180+ points. Can he do that without Stroud and Andrews? Njoku is a decent replacement but we'll see who he can get at QB .

10. Buoyed by Jr(s) (David K)

What he needs: Win and losses by Mike and Simon and Eric and to make up the PF (173 to Simon and 86 to Cho)

How the byes affect him: Tank Dell (WR2/3), Boutte (WR3/4), Brian Robinson (RB2), Michael Pittman (WR3/4), Denver (DEF)

Prediction: So TECHNICALLY, he's not eliminated but this isn't exactly a great situation. Not only does he need to make up almost 200 points, he needs every other matchup to go his way WHILE missing 3-4 legitimate starters. Some hills look like they'll be too hard to climb.

Good luck to all!

Week 13 - Happy Thanksgiving!

 Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and enjoyed a full day of football (what in the world was Eberflus thinking? How are the Giants this bad? Can Miami ever win a cold weather game?).

It's probably too late to do a MOTW since all but one matchup has had players play and the one MOTW that would be available has an already eliminated team. So instead, let me show you some manager-level stats. I know you guys have already seen FPI (and I might do an updated one for next year) but this analysis is a little bit more straight to the point.

The Premise

What is the goal of every season? To make the playoffs and eventually win the ship. So we can think of success in fantasy in the following ways:

1. Make the playoffs. If you can't make the playoffs, you have no chance at competing for the prize.

2. Winning money. This means finishing first, second, or third so that one the season, you're ending up /neutral at worst.

3. Making it to the finals. Getting to the final game nets you a positive return on your initial fee.

4. Winning this ship. Obviously, the ultimate goal and the biggest payout.

Now clearly the odds for each of these, assuming everyone is evenly matched and has the same shot at winning each year, is very clear as well:

Make playoffs - 6/12 (6 out of 12 teams make it)

Win Money - 3/12 (1st, 2nd, or 3rd)

Make Finals - 2/12

Win - 1/12

So in theory, based on the number of years you've played, it should be relatively easy to see if you are under or overperforming your expectations. If you've played 12 years, you should have made the playoffs 6 times, won money 3 times, made the finals twice, and won once.

But we all know that everyone isn't at the same skill level. Some managers are better than others. But by how much? Let's take a look.

The Data

Seasons played
14	Wins	Finals	Money	Playoffs
Simon	21.4%	35.7%	35.7%	71.4%
Rich	21.4%	28.6%	32.1%	50.0%
Dan	10.7%	35.7%	50.0%	78.6%
Jon	0.0%	7.1%	21.4%	42.9%
Mike	7.1%	14.3%	28.6%	64.3%
Eric	14.3%	14.3%	39.3%	64.3%
Cho	14.3%	28.6%	42.9%	50.0%
13
Paul	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
David K	0.0%	7.7%	15.4%	23.1%
11
David Y	0.0%	9.1%	9.1%	36.4%
10
Jung	5.0%	10.0%	10.0%	50.0%
6
Chris	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%
Target	8.3%	16.7%	25.0%	50.0%

Before we go into some analysis, there's one more sub-section I'd like to show: what happens once a team makes the playoffs? So let's assume a team has made it. Now the percentages change: you have a 3/6 chance of money, 2/6 chance of finals, and 1/6 chance of winning. So who are the best playoff performers?

Seasons played
14	Win	Finals	Money
Simon	30.0%	50.0%	50.0%
Rich	42.9%	57.1%	64.3%
Dan	13.6%	45.5%	63.6%
Jon	0.0%	16.7%	50.0%
Mike	11.1%	22.2%	44.4%
Eric	22.2%	22.2%	61.1%
Cho	28.6%	57.1%	85.7%
13
Paul	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
David K	0.0%	33.3%	66.7%
11
David Y	0.0%	25.0%	25.0%
10
Jung	10.0%	20.0%	20.0%
6
Chris	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Target	16.7%	33.3%	50.0%

The Analysis

- Simon, Rich, and Cho are the model managers in this league. They are at or above the target rate for every single statistical category. The main differences between their teams:

- Simon has never placed third. Finals or bust.

- Rich barely makes the playoffs but he's the most successful at converting for a ship once he's in. A bit of Ricky Bobby flair.

- Cho is the best at ensuring some type of payout once he's made the playoffs by converting to money at a whopping 85.7%

- Dan is a great manager but can't quite win the whole thing at the expected rate once he makes the playoffs.

- Eric doesn't get to the finals at the rate he should. But when he does? He wins.

- Mike makes the playoffs at an extremely high clip (tied for 3rd best) but his team aren't built for the postseason.

- Jung surprisingly makes the playoffs at an acceptable rate but seems like he's barely slipping in as he makes no noise once he's in there.

- David K. struggles overall to make the playoffs but when he does, he seems to get his money's worth.

- Jon makes money at an acceptable clip once he's in but the finals and the ship elude him. He's the only original manager who has yet to taste a championship (could this be the year?!?!)

- Paul, David Y, and Chris... there's not much to write about them other than a big thank you for supporting our prize pool every year. Let's thank them, in the spirit of the holiday, for their donations.

Hope everyone gets to enjoy the rest of their holiday and enjoy some more football on a special Friday edition.

Good luck to all!

Week 12 - Preseason Predictions: Where are they now?

At the start of the season, I made some bold predictions on where teams would end up by the end of the year. In today's post, we'll look back on those predictions to see how they're doing and predict where they'll end up at the end of the season.

Favorites:

Jacked Up! (Cho)

Current Standing: 11th place

Playoff Chances: Extremely low

Cho has had quite a disappointing season. Chubb didn't return to the form before his injury, Deebo and Waddle have been slightly underwhelming, and Andrews had an incredibly slow start before rounding in to form. All that has combined in to a 3-8 record and being all but eliminated from the playoffs. His PF is actually within striking distance of the top 6 teams and if he is able to win out and get to 6-8 and some funky stuff happens with the teams above him, there's a small, although not likely, chance that he could get in. He has 2 matchups coming up against Eric (currently 6th) and Mike (currently 8th) that should act as elimination games before the playoffs start.

Future Prediction: My guess is that the hole is too big and that this is one season Cho will have to watch from the sidelines.

In Time (Eric)

Current Standing: 6th place

Playoff Chances: 50/50

Eric's team has been a bit boom bust this year, scoring in the 80s 4 times but also topping 135 3 times (with a high of 151). He's just barely hanging on to the number 6 spot with a few teams ready to pounce should he slip. He gets direct matchups with Mike and Cho, where wins would have a dual effect of helping to stave them off from taking his spot and creating a buffer from the other chasers. He is in control of his destiny so let's see if he can get to the postseason.

Future Prediction: Sneaks in to the playoffs as a 5 or 6 seed but can't get to the championship game.

Dark Horse:

To infinity and bijans (Jon)

Current Standing: 1st place

Playoff Chances: Locked In

What a season it's been for Jon. He was undefeated for 8 weeks and only lost to Rich when he dropped 130+ on Jon. If you look at his matchups, there has been an element of luck to Jon's wins as many teams seem to have subpar performances against him (only 3 have broken 100 and 6 are under 90). But that doesn't take away the fact that he has the most points for and his roster is stacked, even absorbing the loss of Godwin.

Future Prediction: Getting the bye, Jon cruises in to the championship game. As weird as it seems to type, I think his performance in the ship depends on who he faces.

Ra-Dogging It (Paul)

Current Standing: 3rd place

Playoff Chances: All but locked in

Another member of the Kim-Lee clan is dominating this season. With a ridiculous WR corp, Paul has primed himself for his best season ever. Of all the teams, he might be the happiest to start getting some of his injured players back with Nico and Pacheco able to join his team for the stretch run and the playoffs, nobody should want to face this team at full strength. Whether or not Paul can manage his team to the ship will be his biggest test thus far.

Future Prediction: Still fighting for the bye (and a direct confrontation with Rich in Week 13 should be one of the matchups of the year), I think Paul just misses out. But I think his team still has the legs to make it to a money game.

Cellar Dweller

#winnable (Chris)

Current Standing: 4th place

Playoff Chances: Looks good thanks to the forgiving schedule

Chris has to have one of the most interesting success stories of the year. I flamed him hard for drafting 2 TEs but somehow he's made it work. I'm surprised he didn't move at least one of them to solidify other parts of his roster but I guess if it's gotten him to where he is now, maybe don't fix it? My only precaution for Chris is that while he is 4th, he's only 1 game away from falling out of playoff contention and he's 7th in PF, showing that he's been more lucky than good. Facing David and Jung should give him at least 1 win to help solidify his spot but I wouldn't be breathing easy if I were Chris.

Future Prediction: Sneaks into the playoffs and leaves someone else with more points scored on the season out.

BEST TEAM (Mike)

Current Standing: 8th place

Playoff Chances: Tough climb but not eliminated

Mike's interesting zero WR strategy hasn't been a resounding success but it's still got him within striking distance of the playoffs. Mike's been a bit unlucky as he once again has the highest points against on the season (continuing a trend from last year) and the teams playing against him would aggregate into the 2nd best team in our league today. The dichotomy of his team this year and his team last year is that last year, his team was stacked with too many WRs and he didn't know which ones to play. This year, thanks to his strategy, he's been struggling at the position. At least until now. His trade deadline move for CD may go down as what saves his season. Is it too late? Only time will tell.

Future Prediction: Just misses playoffs due to some bad luck and facing Jon gives him the last loss that fully eliminates him.

One Last Head Scratcher:

Buoyed by Jr(s) (David K)

Current Standing: 9th place

Playoff Chances: Needs some help / miracles

If only he had drafted Jayden Daniels. Obviously it's hard to say if that would have completely altered his season but the search for a consistent QB has really hampered David's team's ability to perform this season. He passed on Daniels for Spears. He passed on Herbert / Purdy / Goff for Hollywood Brown. He passed on Tua for Corum. He's tried Stafford, Darnold, and Tua to solidfy that spot and eventually dropped all 3 guys he drafted (Spears got dropped 4 times. Stop playing with his heart, David). His late trade for Burrow is exactly what he needed but he might not have time to dig himself out of the hole he's in.

Future Prediction: Misses the playoffs as he drops at least one of his next 3 games.

Good luck to all!

Week 11 - MOTW

If you read my post last week, you were expecting a manager rating or a pre-season pick review. Well, you're getting neither because for some reason I'm really proactive this week and writing this on a Wednesday. So wait one more week (or more) and enjoy another MOTW.

MOTW

3. Go Go Bower Rangers (Rich) vs. 8. BEST TEAM (Mike)

I was going to feature Cho again as he continues his streak of "must-win" games against teams that are close to him in the rankings but went a different direction this time. Rich has been having an incredible season, even though he's flying under the radar due to the dominance of the top 2 teams. But he's the only one to hand Jon a loss and he currently has the longest active win streak. Mike on the other hand has been one of the unluckiest players (again). Teams playing against him would aggregate to the 3rd most PF in our league this season. Can Mike overcome his bad luck and an interesting draft strategy (Zero WR) to sneak in and cause havoc?

QB: Rich ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Mike

Most weeks I'd like to lean Josh Allen but he's playing a tough KC defense in a game I expect to actually be kind of low scoring as each tests the other's mettle. On the other side, Hurts gets the Commanders on a short week so expect a tired defense and a few tush push opportunities that he should easily convert. Let's just all this one a wash.

WR/TE: Rich 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ Mike

Rich might have one of the best pass catching corps (even besting Paul's due to his TE being a consensus top 3 TE while Paul has barely playable TE2s) with 3 WR1s who seem to be matchup proof (as long as they're not punching opponents in the head). Mike's zero WR strategy was an admirable gambit but other than Zay, it's been tough sledding. Tee is pretty good when healthy but that's a big "when." The matchups don't break well either as Rich's WRs are in games where they should feast while Mike's best receiver could get the attention of Joey Porter Jr. It's also crazy to say that LaPorta (who Mike was banking on for his strat) is actually a loser in this positional battle as Bowers comes off a bye with a chance to make some noise against a mediocre Miami LB corp.

RB: Rich ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Mike

If you go Zero WR, then your backfield must be good... right? Well, Saquon says yes. The rest of Mike's backs.... TBD. Dowdle gets volume but he's a low end RB2 at best. Unfortunately, his other option, Rachaad White (who has an awesome story of how he came to the NFL), is on bye this week. Rich's backfield options aren't awe inspiring but they should be RB2/3s just based on volume. Saquon is a clear head above everyone in this room. Edge, Mike.

K/DST: Rich ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Mike

I actually like both kickers here. Bates should just get a ton of run and he's on a high after hitting some clutch FGs last week. Like I mentioned earlier, I expect a gritty game in Orchard Park so Bass should be getting plenty of opportunities in a close game. The defenses make the matchup and I have to lean Mike unless Rich changes something. While I think Chicago will get a boost from firing Waldron, I think they're still too disjointed and Green Bay should be able to force sacks and TOs. Pittsburgh is a great defense and do play well against Lamar, but facing Lamar and Henry together is something they haven't experienced yet. While they may get a few sacks and even a TO, I'm afraid of how many points the Ravens will score.

Winner: Rich

The pass catchers are what allow Rich to run away with this one. I expect the difference in score for the pass catchers to be over 30 points. That'll be a tough deficit for anyone to make up, even a back as great as Barkley.

Good luck to all!

MOTW Record: 3-1

Week 10 - MOTW

Look at that! Back to back weeks. I should pay myself on the back.

Next week, we'll take a look at either another way to look at manager performance (other than FPI) or we can review my pre-season picks. I'll play it by ear. Or maybe I'll forget and not post anything. Anything can happen!

MOTW

10. Jacked Up (Cho) vs. 11 Easy Breece-y Beautiful (Jung)

Cho is getting featured 2 weeks in a row but not for good reason. Another loss last week has put him at 2-7 and he gets to face another 2-7 team in Jung's just to fight for a chance at the playoffs. The good news is, the 6th spot is currently 4-5 so both these teams are only 2 games back. The bad news is, one of them have to lose and if you get to 8 losses, I think you're pretty much eliminated as I don't think a sub-500 team has made it to the playoffs (don't fact check me) and you'd end up being 3 games behind with 4 games to play. So really, this is the beginning of the playoffs for both these teams.

QB: Cho ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Jung

Jayden has been unstoppable but this week might be his toughest challenge yet. He gets a Steelers defense that has been clicking and I'm expecting another tricky game plan from Tomlin. Stroud gets a stingy Lions defense so I don't see a lot of upside here either. Expect sub-20 from both.

WR/TE: Cho 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ Jung

Who knew that losing Tillman would impact this matchup so much? He's legitimately been a WR2/3 with upside since Jameis came in to play. Now Jung has to play Mike Williams in a new system or Jameson coming off of a suspension. Neither seem like great options to go against Deebo in a WR room without Aiyuk and Chase, who should tear this weak Ravens secondary to shreds.

RB: Cho ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯  Jung

Kyren finally didn't score in a game this season but I expect him to bounce back and Chubba should be happy now that he's gotten a fat 8m+/year contract in a game where they should lean on him to win. But Jung's twosome of Breece Hall in a game they should be ahead and DMont being the steady TD machine against a weakened Texans D should tip the scales in Jung's favor.

K/DST: Cho ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Jung

Once again no gamebreakers at these positions but I have to give a slight edge to Cho as I expect KC to dominate Bo Nix and Miami should be tough for the Rams to match up with. If Jung's not careful, the Rams may end up costing him points.

Winner: Cho

Cho bounces back and tries to run the table to make the playoffs. Jung's season looks like it'll be in the rearview mirror, along with David Y, as he prepares his team for the consolation gift card.

Good luck to all!

MOTW Record: 2-1

Week 9 - MOTW

So apparently my thing this year is that I'll be posting once every 3 weeks.

Just kidding (well, hopefully. Life has been crazy so I may accidentally post on this tri-weekly schedule without actually attempting to).

Anyways, it's been an interesting year. Other than Jon's dominant run to the top of the tables, everyone else is still in the playoff race. Even the 2-6 teams are only 2 games out with 6 games to go, which is plenty of time to catch up. Rich's team performance has been quite fascinating and although I do want to write about how he fares against Jon's undefeated team, let's focus on two teams trying to keep their playoff hopes alive.

MOTW

9. Buoyed by Jr(s) (David K) vs. 10. Jacked Up (Cho)

The last time Cho and David were written about in this forum, Cho was looked at as a favorite and I was left scratching my head on David's draft. Well, 8 weeks have flown by and they're neck and neck in the standings. So who can come out victorious to jump a few places in the standings? Let's go position by position.

QB: David ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Cho

While Darnold has cooled off after a scorching start, he's still been a serviceable QB and should be even more so against a weakened Indy D that may turn things into a shootout with Joe Flacco in the picture. Normally, I would rank Stroud ahead but no Nico, no Diggs, and an o-line that is struggling to protect him against a Jets defense that's been underperforming but still has the talent to rattle him makes me predict a sub-20 point outing for Stroud.

WR/TE: David ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Cho

Probably the one strength of David's lineup is his pass catchers. CD is CD, MHJ is finding a groove with K1, and Tank should be the focal point of the Texans passing offense (and offset most of Stroud's yardage points). Chase and Waddle have solid matchups that should help them stay competitive but Jeudy has yet to break out, even with Amari leaving. Stack that with the fact that he's also starting Njoku (cap on the points available in the Browns offense in what should be a shortened game against the Chargers that like to run a lot), David should win this positional matchup.

RB: David ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯  Cho

Kyren is on an absolutely heater and better than any other RB in this matchup. That alone gives Cho a bump on his side. Achane is bouncing back since Tua came back and he dominated the Bills the last time they played, so maybe he can keep things close. B-Rob has been struggling with some injuries lately and if he can't go on Sunday, I see major issues for David's team. Cho's team's RB2 has questions too (Chubb struggling since return, Javonte in a negative game script, Hubbard in an overall low performing Panthers offense) but not as big as David's.

K/DST: David ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Cho

I don't see any gamechangers here. Both defenses have solid matchups against depleted offenses and both kickers should get some opportunities to score points. The only interesting factor is that every kick McLaughlin makes could also be a double whammy by decreasing the KC D's score.

Winner: David K

If Kyren and Chase don't have a monster games, I can actually see this one being a bit lopsided. If Cho loses this, his destiny of fulfilling my prediction at the start of the year might be too far out of reach.

Good luck to all!

MOTW Record: 1-1

Week 6 - First MOTW (and my never published MOTW)

Wow, I'm so annoyed with myself. I actually wrote a MOTW last week on Wednesday... and I never published it. So I guess you guys will get two MOTWs this week. And you'll get to see last week's MOTW and how close (or more realistically, how far) I was from being correct.

MOTW

1. To infinity and bijans (Jon) vs. 3. Ra-dogging it (Paul)

Like I said before, it only makes sense in this ridiculously messed up season, The Kim/Lee family would have 2 of the top 3 teams in the league (step your game up David!). While both teams have been swift and agile in avoiding the injury bug other than one major player (Kupp for Jon, Pacheco for Paul.. although Nico's injury looks like it might be more severe than it was at initial glance), their draft day gambles have paid off and both are already thinking about byes for the playoffs. Who will win to have bragging rights the next time the family meets?

QB: Jon ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Paul

Lamar has been superhuman recently and he gets to go against a Commanders defense that is anything but spectacular. This should be a shootout with Daniels on the other side tearing up the league so expect Lamar to get a full workload and 30+ points in this one. Goff is a bit more hot or cold. He's either scored under 20 or over 30 in every game so far. It will really come down to whether or not this game is competitive and with how banged up the Cowboys are, I feel like this is a classic Dan Campbell "run it down their throats" kind of game. I think Goff isn't asked to do much and scores a modest 15-20 points. Advantage Paul.

WR/TE: Jon ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Paul

If Kupp was healthy, Jon may have the most complete wide receiver + TE group in the league. Godwin has body-swapped with Evans from last year and is vacuuming in targets like he's never done before. DK has been hot and cold but he's the clear alpha on that team going against a banged up 9ers defense on a short week. Brian Thomas is trying to lay claim to the fact that he is indeed the best rookie in this class for a rebounding Jags team, although his matchup with Jaylon is less than favorable. And McBride could still sneakily end up being the TE1 this year in a terrible year for TEs. Can Paul match that? I think Terry and Amon-Ra can come to play but Doubs, even with his fantastic matchup, doesn't seem like he's in the right headspace to compete and Kmet is more of an afterthought the more the Bears start clicking on offense.

RB: Jon ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Paul

This was actually the hardest part about this matchup. Initially I wanted to give the edge to Paul. Conner has been his usual self with 20ish opportunities a game and churning out high teens scoring. And although he's cooled a bit, Mason has been a revelation, generating 70-80% of CMC's rushing abilities, although his ceiling is capped by his inability to be a huge part of the pass game. But Jon's backfield is nothing to scoff at. Bijan has been underperforming but if there's anything to fix a player, it's a matchup against a soft Panther's defense and the positive game script should help his bottom line. And Kamara, assuming he plays, shouldn't be that worried that he is facing a Bucs team he usually struggles against (no TDs in the last 4 games and hasn't combined for 100 yards against them since 2019) as Rattler should be checking it down to him over and over again.

K/DST: Jon ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Paul

Paul still needs to pick up a DST and whoever it is won't be as good as Chicago. They get to go after Lawrence who has had one of the sloppier lines this season. The kicker battle is as good as it gets as normally I would say Aubrey has the edge on any player but with the Falcons offense resurging and playing a Panthers team that gives up plenty of points, to teams and kickers, it should be a close matchup.

Winner: Jon

Jon stays undefeated and thanks the football gods for not having to face Nico. Paul doesn't have to go back to the drawing board but if he wants to fight for a bye, may have to get busy on the trade or waiver market to raise his team's ceiling.

Good luck to all!

MOTW Record: 0-1

BONUS: LAST WEEK'S POST THAT I FORGOT TO PUBLISH

After all that anticipation and buildup for a MOTW... I forgot to post last week. I guess, I shouldn't say I forgot. I had been meaning to all week but time just slipped away. 

So without further ado, here's the very first MOTW of the year for 2 very deserving teams:

MOTW

3. Rajanigandha (Dan) vs. 4. In Time (Eric)

The matchup of 2 "The Office" references (although honestly, Eric is slacking and his reference doesn't even fit his team this year. Get on it, Eric) boasts 2 heavyweights that are looking for another title. While their records show that they're two games apart, they're only separated by 32 points (8 points / week). Let's see if Eric can close the gap on Dan.

QB: Dan ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Eric

Wow, an interesting matchup off the bat. Mahomes hasn't quite been Mahomes this year and now without Rice, I expect him to struggle. HOWEVER, Mahomes in primetime feels like a perfect time for KC to show why they're the 2-time defending Super Bowl champs and I feel a monster MVP-resume game coming. On the other side, Caleb Williams started off the year terribly but he's been improving week by week. With the improved performance and a win last week, I think they take that momentum into a DJ Moore revenge game versus Carolina. Expect a wash here.

WR/TE: Dan ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Eric

First off, let's just say that TE is a wash. I don't feel comfortable recommending any TE over any other TE at this point. As for the receivers, Eric's young receivers (all under 25) takes on a two vets and possibly the youngest and best receiver of the bunch (for fantasy purposes). Eric's team seems more boom/bust, with the matchups looking more boom than bust, but Dan's team has 2 revenge games in store, the aforementioned DJ Moore and Diggs against his former Bills team. I gotta give this one to Dan mostly because his guys are hotter right now and I value the revenge factor highly.

RB: Dan ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 Eric

I would have given this to Dan but I don't think Jonathan Taylor is playing. And if he doesn't play he's starting... Herbert?? Wilson or Bigsby from FA? Meanwhile, Eric is rolling out Derrick Henry, who along with Saquon, might be the most dominant RB in fantasy right now if you consider talent, opportunity, and opponent. Eric should build a big lead in this matchup.

K/DST: Eric ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Eric

Both teams need to pick up and make changes at these positions but I don't think either are going to find an option that really changes the outcomes of this matchup. It's easier to just call it a wash.

Winner: Eric

This one looks like it'll be pretty close but I have to give the nod to Eric. The strength of Dan's backfield negates any advantage Dan gets in the pass catcher department. If everything else is even, give me King Henry!

Good luck to all!