And I could come up with some type of excuse saying why I've been so busy but I know of at least 2 of you that will say something like "busy eating turkey? stop slacking!" or "what's going on with the blog? no update for so long" so I'll just save the excuse.
It's obviously too late for a MOTW this week but instead, let's do a revisit of my last post 4 weeks ago (man, I really have been slacking) and see how the outlooks of these teams have changed.
Championship Favorites
#winnable (Chris)
I'm sure you've heard from me ad naseum but having Mahomes guarantees a ship. But aside from that stat, Mahomes has literally been one of the best performers in fantasy. Only scoring under 20 once and the explosive potential to hit 40+ in any week, he's truly a fantasy cheat code. On top of that, if Taysom Hill gets any more play, Chris may be starting 2 QBs against every other team in the league. With his PF lead and a lineup without any true weakness (could use some more star power at WR), Chris should waltz in to the playoffs.
When we last left off, Chris was 4-3 and sitting pretty with Mahomes promising to lead another team to the promised land. But now? He's lost 3 of 4, including one of the tightest margin losses last week. His team is sliding in multiple areas: Taysom is no longer useful, his WRs have started to tail off, and his RB2 may have lost his starting job. Can Mahomes's magic still carry Chris in to the playoffs? My gut says it will be close.
New Prediction: Just misses playoffs
Jacked Up! (Cho)
Cho's team has kind of flown under the radar but if you really take a look at it, it's a juggernaut. Lamar is having an MVP-esque season, he arguably has 3 WR1s, he has the overall RB1 who could become even better in SF, and a Dallas defense that hunts sacks and turnovers that, even though they may be matchup proof, has a very favorable schedule. If he can upgrade his RB2 before the final push, he may be fighting for a bye.
Most of the comments for Cho's team still holds true. CMC should still carry, his WRs are still all touch hogs, and Lamar is sneakily in the MVP conversation, carrying his offense. So what gives? Why is he in 7th? A 3+ point loss to David Y and a 1+ point loss to Dan has given him just a 2-2 record over the last 4 weeks. If it wasn't for a bit of bad luck, he'd be fighting for a bye instead of struggling to stay in the playoff hunt. I still trust in the talen of this team.
New Prediction: Playoff Lock
Playoff Locks
Trey Lance Refrigeration (Eric)
Imagine if Eric had a decent QB. He's got 3 top 24 WRs, 2 underrated RBs whose pre-draft value got pushed so far down they ended up becoming potential league winners, and the undisputed #1 TE in the game. Wilson has always been a notoriously slow starter in fantasy, always performing better in the second half of seasons. If he can rediscover some of that magic and become a top 8 QB on a consistent basis, this could be the most complete team top to bottom.
So, did Eric get the QB he needed? Wilson hasn't gotten better and Rodgers haven't really been much better (although he has admittedly been better than Wilson). The rest of his roster remains solid, but not spectacular. But with Kelce putting him so far ahead in one position, he can afford some slack at all the other positions. Additionally, he's 6-5, which is apparently huge this year. I think one more win gets him in so even with a tough ROS schedule, he should be able to squeeze one out.
New Prediction: Playoff Lock
Fe-Brees (Jon)
Jon's team has performed about league average to this point but I think his second half outlook looks great. Juju is starting to thrive next to Mahomes. Ken Walker looks like a true RB1. Tyreek has put to rest any question to whether or not he should be a top 5 WR regardless of who is throwing him the ball. Kyler Murray has shown that he can perform if he has the right weapons on the field with him. While Jonathan Taylor is struggling, he has too much talent so I expect him to bounce back. If Dulcich works out for Jon, watch out.
A mixed bag is what I would say since the last time we checked in. Juju got a concussion, Walker has been a little more human recently, and JT still hasn't really shown the RB1 prowess he promised to bring. Murray's injury and Dulcich not being the savior Jon expected keeps this team from realy being locked in as a contender but there's still enough talent here to squeeze out 2 wins against a relatively easy end of season slate.
New Prediction: The Lucky Last One In
Dalvin & the Chubbmunks (Rich)
Arguably the best name this year, Rich's team has actually been incredibly solid. He's just had some horrendous matchup luck with some of the biggest scoring games coming against him. His WR3 spot is in flux after Samuel and London have been dealing with some QB issues, but Dalvin and Chubb carry this team as 2 workhorse backs that are the foundation of their offense. Burrow is discovering that magic again that got them to the super bowl last year and if Hock can be a top 5 TE (which isn't that hard with how poorly the position has been doing), Rich might climb up the standings quickly.
After 2 strong wins, the last 2 weeks have been quite unlucky for Rich. Back to back AJ Brown duds and his RBs not performing at the level that's expected of them, Rich finds himself quite a ways back in 11th place. He's still 2nd best in PF but needing 3 wins out of 3 seems like a tall task for any team.
New Prediction: Out of the playoffs
The Lucky Last One In
So this was a close one between Dan and Mike. But in the end I chose...
Urkel Grue (Dan)
While both teams look pretty solid on paper, I like Dan's fully healthy team better. Waddle, Diggs, and Keenan form a ridiculous trio at WR, along with Mixon and Etienne who have both been utilized in less than ideal settings but are starting to trend in the right direction. Kittle could actually end up as the TE3 with CMC eating up some of his target share but creating more efficient gains when he does get the ball. Carr is a little underwhelming but maybe Geno can be the x-factor that takes this team over the top. Mike's team looks solid too but it just looks like a step down on everything I wrote about Eric's team (3 top 36 WRs, 2 younger but more volatile backs, #2 TE).
What a great call by me! He hasn't lost since the last post and with the way the season is shaking out, he may have locked a first round bye, already accumulating 8 wins and leading the league in PF. With Keenan back, Kittle a bit more dangerous, Geno producing QB1 numbers and solidifying his QB position, and some explosive games from his RBs has made Dan's team a true threat in the playoffs.
New Prediction: Championship Favorite
So who else makes the playoffs?
BEST TEAM (Mike)
The other team that just missed the post last time, Mike is the other team that has not lost since the last post. He's in a similar position as Dan but he has a slightly lower ceiling. His WRs and RBs are a step below Dan's but his true X-factor is Tua, who is having an MVP-esque season. If he can get a little playoff matchup luck, I don't see why he can't win the league in back to back seasons.
Prediction: Championship Favorite
David Y Team (David Y)
This one has less to do with his team's talent and more to do with his existing position. He's already got 6 wins, which really probably means he only needs one more to get in. This doesn't mean his team is devoid of talent. Henry and Adams are arguably top 5 at their positions and his WR depth is deeper than most teams (would have liked to see him trade for another RB before the trade deadline). If Waller can come back and be a top 4 TE, he may be able to compete on more than luck.
Prediction: Playoff Lock
Good luck to all!
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