Originally, I was only going to do a Perfect Team post since I thought all 6 teams for the playoffs would be set but we now have 2 HUGE matchups that could really shake up the playoff race. So maybe I'll save the perfect team post for next week's wild card matchups (since most of the teams in this MOTW have a good chance of being featured again next week).
On to our first MOTW:
MOTW
10. Football is Death (David K) vs. 11. Scary Terry McScorin (Paul)
Just kidding. Just wanted to rag on the Kim brothers again. Ironically, they are the only 2 teams to not feature in any MOTW this year. Maybe they'll make the consolation finals so they can feature at least once on this blog?
But in all fairness, they've had some terrible luck. David lost Ridley (2nd round pick) due to mental health issues, Gus Edwards (4th) to a season ending injury, and Mostert (6th) to nagging issues. Paul's issue haven't been as bad but with Kamara (1st), AJ Brown (2nd), and Kyler (5th) missing large chunks of time due to injury and Trey Sermon (6th) just evaporating into thin air, it's been tough sledding. Michael Thomas not coming back at all definitely deflated Paul's hopeful balloon even further.
MOTW
7. Dak λ₯κΌ¬λͺ½ (Rich) vs. 8. Jacked Up! (Cho)
Thanks to a massive win with the 2nd most points scored last week, Cho is right back in it. He needs some help but if he can knock off his main competition in Rich this week AND make up the point differential on Mike, he'll secure a spot in the playoffs. He's currently trailing Mike by 50 points but if you saw last week, he outscored Mike by almost 70 points; it's a possibility. Rich on the other hand needs to end this 3 game slide. If he can just win and pray for Mike to lose, he already has a 20 point lead on Mike in the tiebreak scenario. But either way, if Mike loses, only one of these teams can get in. Who will it be?
Key Players on Bye:
Rich - Goedert (TE1)
Cho - Gaskin (RB2/3), Indianapolis D (D1)
Key Injuries:
Rich - Chase Edmonds (RB2)
Cho - Michael Carter (RB2/3), AJ Brown (WR3, Suspended)
QB: Rich ◯ ◯ π’ ◯ ◯ Cho
Dak struggled last week against a very solid New Orleans defense and instead of forcing the issue, he did what he needed to win the game. He should get more opportunities to throw against a Football Team team (?) that has allowed QBs to absolutely roast them. But on the other side, Taysom Hill gets arguably the easiest matchup for QBs in the league. A non-competitive Jets team that should be like running a practice against should be ripe for fantasy points. Dak is clearly the better player but with his red zone TD vulturing ability, Taysom should put up a close fight.
WR: Rich ◯ ◯ π’ ◯ ◯ Cho
This one looks to be closer than expected at first glance. Yes, Justin Jefferson, especially without Thielen and possibly Dalvin, is going to be a monster, most likely putting up 20+ points. But his talent drops off fast. D.J. hasn't found much success with Cam (but he does get a Falcons defense that can be torched), and Tre'Quan is a desperation play. Assuming Deebo plays at 100%, I would lean towards Cho winning this battle. All his receivers are WR2 and up as the 1 or 1A/B options in their offense. But Deebo's health and the absence of AB make starting Reynolds a real possibility. And for that, there's too much uncertainty to really call this for either team.
RB: Rich ◯ ◯ π’ ◯ ◯ Cho
Another close matchup as we have backfields that look like mirror images of each other. For one, both Zeke and Aaron Jones have been solid but have started losing some time share to Pollard and Dillon, respectively. They should still be top 24 RBs on the week but the amount vultured could determine this matchup. Both of them play winnable games and should see 15+ touches. Gibson and Mitchell continue to operate as the bellcow back for their respective teams that like to run the ball and control the clock to win close games against better opponents. They both face teams that should make the playoffs and therefore may need to be more involved in the pass catching business this week.
TE/K/DST: Rich ◯ ◯ π’ ◯ ◯ Cho
Another wash? Kittle and Waller are two of the premier TEs in the league, Zuerlein and Gay get to play behind top tier offenses that should set them up for many opportunities (the only question being whether they are FGs or XPs), and although Cho hasn't chosen a defense yet, there's still defenses available that play exploitable opponents.
Winner: Tie? But if I have to pick, Rich
This one is going to be close. I'd say the final score is within 10 points and isn't determined until OBJ and Gay take the field on Monday night. Although the circles don't show it, I'm giving Dak a slight edge over Taysom Hill that I think will be the difference. Also, I don't trust that Deebo will be 100% meaning either a limited performance or a Josh Reynolds substitute.
MOTW
2. #winnable (Chris) vs. 6. BEST TEAM (Mike)
The entire MOTW above is pretty much useless if Mike happens to win this week. But with injuries mounting, it will be an uphill climb. In his way this week is Chris, looking to secure a first round bye. If he loses, he will almost certainly not get the bye as Jon has too many points on him and one the 2 teams below him who are tied on record are facing each other. But if he wins? As long as he outscores the winner of that 3-4 matchup, he'll be drinking mojitos during week 15 while 4 teams fight to the death.
Key Players on Bye:
Chris - Miles Sanders (RB2), Nick Folk (K1)
Mike - Jaylen Waddle (WR3)
Key Injuries:
Chris - Logan Thomas (TE1)
Mike - CMC (RB1, RIP), Thielen (WR1/2), Potentially all his RBs?? (more below)
QB: Chris ◯ ◯ ◯ π’ ◯ Mike
Do I have some vested interest in Mahomes? No. Do I want to continue to see the greatest QB of all time have success? Yes. My theory on Mahomes's stuggles (outside of the numerous drops by his receivers) is that he had a kid this past offseason. I'm sure he can afford all the help he needs but it's still a different stress that he's never had before. But all this doesn't seem to matter when he plays against the Raiders. Expect big points. Brady won't be as focused on stats against a solid Buffalo defense. Instead, he'll be making sure he can win the game, which could entail a lot of Fournette after seeing what the Patriots did to the Bills on Monday night (worst game ever).
WR: Chris π’ ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ Mike
The loss of Thielen hurts a lot here. Even with Thielen this green circle was going to lean Chris's way but now, I can't see how Mike is able to compete. Chris got Hopkins back last week and may have the most formidable receiving corp in the league: 3 legit WR1s on any given week who are the WR1A or 1B on their given teams. Mike has to trust that Lockett blows up the Texans secondary, Cooks tries to match Lockett on the other side of the ball, and that Mooney teaches Dalton or Fields how to get the ball to him. If the top 3 receivers out of the 6 involved are all on one team, that's a strong green circle in their direction.
RB: Chris ◯ ◯ ◯ π’ ◯ Mike
So this one is assuming that all of Mike's running backs are healthy and ready to go. Currently, all 3 startable backs (assuming Hilliard is an insurance option) are listed as questionable. We'll see how they progress in practice this week but if Mixon and Gordon (vs. the Lions) are your two options, that's not bad. It's certainly better than Singletary against a stout TB defense. Chubb is usually reliable but struggled mightily against the Ravens before the bye. He gets the same Ravens defense in a pivotal divisional matchup. I don't think he'll perform as poorly as week 12 but I think his ceiling may be capped.
TE/K/DST: Chris ◯ ◯ π’ ◯ ◯ Mike
No major gamechangers here. Freiermuth and Ertz have both been super TD dependent so it's hard to gauge their level of production. Neither kicker is anything to write home about but it is interesting that they have opposing kickers, giving it more of a head to head feel. Cincy's defense has been underrated but SF hasn't really been turning the ball over much lately as they keep the ball out of Jimmy G's hands. I assume Mike will change out the Cardinals defense for someone with a friendlier matchup OR he may be hoping for another Stafford pick six (3 in the last 4 games).
Winner: Chris
Unfortunately for Mike, all the injuries and underperforming his stars did comes back to bite him as he falls to Chris. I think the WR difference is too much to make up and will decide this matchup.
So who makes the playoffs??
I think Rich just edges out Mike as he wins the high scoring affair against Cho and thanks to the cushion he's built up, Mike can't hold on with his PF.
Good luck to all!
