Week 3 - FPI Update

First off, I regret making my team name what it is because it's only been 2 weeks, but both teams that have come at the king (me in this case because I won last year), has not missed. Instead, they've absolutely spanked me. So if you come at the king, please feel free to miss.

In other news, it looks like we got 2 big frontrunners in Mike and Chris (something about the people who were recently in Korea) and then a slew of teams trying to stay in the top 6. It's only 2 weeks in but perennial powerhouses Dan, Eric, and Simon are struggling at the bottom as the only teams with no wins.

How do I know these teams are powerhouses? Well, what a great segue into the actual content of this post: the updated FPI! Did I just update this because I happened to win last year? No... (I actually did plan to update it last year but never found the time to) but if that's what you want to believe, I'm okay with that. Here's some required reading on how it is calculated:

1) All playoff performances are measured since I took over as commissioner of the league (2010).

2) You get points for the following things:
Playoff appearance: 1 point
3rd place: 2 points
2nd place: 3 points
1st place: 5 points

3) More recent performance is weighted more heavily than past performance. Going forward, these percentages will probably stay as performance 10+ years ago will not indicate how well they are currently performing:
2020: 24%
2019: 20%
2018: 16%
2017: 13%

2016: 10%
2015: 7%
2014: 4%
2013: 3%

2012: 2%

2011: 1%

4) Certain GMs have dropped out so their teams are counted as being "inherited" by other fantasy GMs. My analysis mostly focuses around Team FPIs in order to ensure enough history for each team to be statistically significant. However, I will make some pointers on interesting observations from each player's perspective.

5) A quick key to how to decode how good a fantasy team is:
>2: Dynastic. Probably cheating like the Patriots (pre-Brady's departure) or just insanely talented like the Chiefs.
1.1-2: Playoff locks and championship threats. Think Packers and Ravens.
0.8-1.1: Playoff contenders but need a little luck to win the whole thing. Comparable to the Browns, Bills, Rams, and Seahawks.
0.3-0.8: Stepladder for above teams to make playoffs. Will they win some games? Yes. But so do the Cardinals, Titans, and Colts but they're not challenging anybody for the ship.
<0.3: Thanks for your donation to the fantasy football payout fund. We encourage you to follow the Jaguars or Lions this NFL season.

Green is good, Yellow is average, and Red is David K extremely disappointing. (Congrats on David for escaping the position of always being the brunt of my jokes.

Comparisons to real NFL teams (not just this year but their history over the past 10 seasons or so), grouped by Player FPI:

Elite:

Brian Cho (2.41) - KC Chiefs: They were always solid before but recently have become a dynasty with no signs of slowing down.

Simon Kim (2.2) - Baltimore Ravens: Win every once in a while but can't seem to string it back to back. However, they're always in the hunt for the next trophy.

Dan Park (2.09) - New Orleans Saints: Won one ship and consistently in talks to win another one

Solid:

Eric Lee (1.19) - Pittsburgh Steelers: Never really a bad year, but biggest successes were in the past and looking to prove himself and stay elite

Rich Kim (1.17) - New England Patriots: At one point, they were a dynasty. Now? They're falling quick. Will need to be more competitive before they slide further.

Jon Lee (0.85) - Dallas Cowboys: So hyped about themselves every year only to make little to no noise in the playoffs. The confidence never wavers though: they believe they are a great team every year.

Mike Lee (0.84) - San Francisco 49ers: Had good performances, followed by a lull, but returning to competitive form. Could this be their year?

Getting there:

David Kim (0.71) - Houston Texans: Had some great highs and showed unlimited potential to be a juggernaut at various points. But some of their personnel moves are baffling.

The opposite of the "cream of the crop":

David Yim (0.23) - Jacksonville Jaguars: Has shown flashes of competing at random points but it's a surprise when they make the playoffs. They've been struggling recently.

Paul Kim (0.21) - Detroit Lions: Does anyone think they're ever actually going to win?

Chris Chung (0.2) - New York Jets: Not sure if they're actually trying to win...

Jung Kim (0.17) - Cincinnati Bengals: They actually made the playoffs a couple time, but flamed out with nothing to show for it. Lately their team has just been a dumpster fire.

We'll see if we can get back to MOTWs starting next week.

Good luck to all!

2021 - Year 12 under Simon Goodell

Welcome back to the league! This is our 4th straight year with the full cast of characters returning, which always increases the possibilities of rivalries due to the familiarity. Much to David Kim's dismay, I am still commissioner of this league and I want to continue something that I started last year where we focus on the positive life events of the past year:

- Mike welcomed a baby girl into the world

- Rich got married

- David Y got married... again (for those that are confused, he just had his ceremony this year, he isn't moving on to a second wife)

- I had my second son

If there's anybody I missed, I do apologize but it also probably means we haven't talked in a while. Don't be a stranger and reach out any time!

Now as we move on to the football side of things, I know some of you are already annoyed that I didn't post a draft analysis. But with only 2 days between the draft and the start of the season, as well as being extremely busy last week, I didn't get a chance. So what we'll do this week is combine a bit of draft analysis with week 1 outputs to see whether or team should be nervous about a poor start or if they need to temper expectations after a hot one. Also, just to give a preview for week 3, since we probably won't really have enough data to start doing MOTWs quite yet, I'll show you an updated version of the FPI to see which teams are actually consistently performing at a high level.

BEST TEAM

5th Round, Adam Thielen - BOOM: 9 catches, 92 yards, 2 TDs

Outlook: Steal that'll continue to pay dividends

Everyone was hyping up Jefferson this offseason but they seem to have forgotten that Thielen is Cousins's first love. While he won't score 2 TDs every week, in a half PPR league, he should make up his worth by getting 10+ targets a game and recording over 100 receptions on the year.

Scary Terry McScorin

3rd Round, Terry McLaurin - BUST: 4 catches, 62 yards

Outlook: Will not perform at the pre-season expectation of WR1/2

With Fitzmagic leaving due to injury, all the Football Team could muster on offense was shallow routes and screens. McLaurin is a great receiver that should still be startable but with Taylor Heinicke under center, I don't think McLaurin will really be able to live up to his pre-season expectations as a top 15 WR.

Trey Lance Refrigeration

1st Round, Derrick Henry - BUST: 17 carries, 58 yards, 3 catches, 19 yards

Outlook: May not be as dominant as past years but this was just a bad game

It's easy to think that Henry may have too many miles as an RB1 and that he is bound to slow down. However, this one week aberration where the entire Titans team played like garbage is more of a blip than the start of a trend. He won't put up 2k rushing yards, but he will still be a solid RB1 thanks to the volume and run-first philosophy of the team.

richard's cowboys

1st Round, Ezekiel Elliott - BUST: 11 carries, 33 yards, 2 catches, 6 yards

Outlook: Still a mid-RB1 but inability to get involved in passing game still a concern

Zeke had to play one of the toughest defenses in the league so I'm not worried yet. They'll continue to be involved in so many shootouts and with the defense needing to worry about 3 solid receiving options, the lanes will open up. However, in a game that was so pass heavy, there is concern that he only saw 2 targets. We'll see if he can continue to expand his game to be more of a receiving threat.

#ridethewave

4th Round, Cooper Kupp - BOOM: 7 catches, 108 yards, 1 TD

Outlook: Probably his best game of the year

While the Stafford upgrade is expected to help everyone on the Rams, I would actually say that Goff was a better fit for Kupp's skills than Stafford. Kupp is a slot man, running the underneath routes and picking up short yardage. Stafford is better known for taking shots downfield and winning on vertical routes. Woods was overshadowed by Kupp in this one but for the rest of the season, I'll take Woods over Kupp.

Football is Life

2nd Round, Calvin Ridley - BUST: 5 catches, 51 yards

Outlook: Life without Julio is tougher, but it's one bad game

Not having Julio is definitely going to make Ridley work harder, as he will see less single coverage than he's ever seen before. However, he's shown that he can still put up numbers when he's the main receiving option in all the games Julio has missed over the past few years. This was a terrible game from the Falcons as whole so I expect Ridley to brush this one off and still finish as a WR1 by the end of the season.

Fe-Brees

7th Round, Aaron Rodgers - BUST: 133 yards, 2 INT

Outlook: Rodgers won't finish as a top 12 QB... unless he's traded

This one might be better categorized as a conspiracy theory than analysis but I think Rodgers is trying to get himself traded away from the Packers. He knows he doesn't have many years left in the league so I cannot see himself squandering a game this badly unless he had a different motive in mind. I really believe he's trying to lower his value so that he will be attainable by a potential contender who just needs a QB (Indy, Washington, NYG, Las Vegas, Miami, Tennessee and even Pittsburgh should be picking up the phone right now). Last note, Jon, please change your team name. He's not on your team anymore. In fact, he's not even in the league anymore.

Jacked Up!

1st Round, Aaron Jones - BUST: 5 carries, 9 yards, 2 catches, 13 yards

Outlook: Hinges on what happens with the other Aaron but the outlook is poor

Continuing the theory up above, if Rodgers goes, there's no way this Aaron is able to produce at a first round level. Aaron leaving would be basically a whole teardown of the Packers meaning Jones will face stacked boxes and negative game scripts. The fact that Dillon also looked just as good as him in the minimal touches they both got doesn't help his cause. Even if Rodgers stays and continues this self-destruction of value, it won't be good for Jones.

David Y Team

3rd Round, Mike Evans - BUST: 3 catches, 24 yards

Outlook: Somehow Evans went from WR1 to WR3 on his own team in 3 years

Evans used to be the only focal point of this Bucs offense but now, he's arguably the WR3. Not only that, he still has to compete with Gronk for red zone looks if Tom isn't sneaking them in himself. With AB stealing the spotlight and Godwin being a younger, spryer target for Brady, I foresee a very difficult year for Evans, maybe not even being startable (a top 36 WR).

Justice Beaver

1st Round, Saquon Barkley - BUST: 10 carries, 26 yards, 1 catch, 1 yard

Outlook: He won't live up to his 1st round billing, but he'll finish as a top-24 RB

As he continues to increase his workload and get more involved in the pass game (he's a capable receiver), he'll develop a more solid floor and be closer to the player we saw a couple years ago. But he'll never quite get to the expectations people have of him due to the fact that Daniel Jones shouldn't be a starter in the NFL. Now if the Giants trade for Rodgers...

Najee in your bahjee

3rd Round, D'Andre Swift - BOOM: 11 carries, 39 yards, 8 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD

Outlook: His rushing stats won't be pretty but thankfully Goff loves to check down

The Lions are going to lose. A lot. Combine that with the fact that Goff is under center and that teams will be blitzing and going all out on the pass rush and all I see is a lot of underneath passes for Swift to do some damage. He's a tantalizing prospect that could be an RB1 in the right situation but he should still finish in the top 24 thanks to his role as Goff's security blanket.

Good luck to all!