Week 12 - Thankful

While we do have some key matchups that could determined playoff seeding (me and Dan, Jon and Jon Sucks, Biggie and Mike, we will instead do a special Thanksgiving edition on who or what, each team can be thankful for.

Dan: Clinching a playoff spot

Thanks to an 8-1 start, Dan is the only team guaranteed team in the playoffs. Staking himself such a big lead in the standings should allow him to maintain an ever important first round bye, especially if he wins this week.

Jon: Team rounding into form

After pulling off what could have been a disastrous trade for Zeke, it looks like Zeke will be just fine under Dalton. Now equipped with 2 top 10 backs, 3 top 25 WRs, 2 top 10 QBs to rotate through, Jon may be the favorite to win his first league championship this season.

Mike: Derrick Henry in second halves

It's a good thing Mike lives in Korea so he's probably not watching many of the games live. Derrick Henry can be frustratingly ineffective in the beginning of games but almost always turns it up in the second half, sometimes scoring double digits just in that half alone. Mike is looking to ride the bulldozer back straight to his first ship.

Eric: Believing in Jon Gruden

Taking the two key players in an offense where the potential was not quite known, Eric staked his entire team's fate in the hands of Chucky. Thankfully, Gruden has turned it into a competent offense, battling for a playoff spot, carrying Eric's team to the fantasy playoffs as well.

Cho: Belichick deciding to ride with Damien

Losing Saquon could have derailed his entire season but Cho didn't give up, continuing to scour the waiver wire for serviceable backs. He landed on some servicable RBs through various weeks (Mike Davis, Moss) but Harris has actually been a borderline RB2 since he took the job from Michel, Burkhead, and White. Usually Bill doesn't commit to one back but I guess Harris has something special, good news for both the Patriots and Cho.

Biggie: KoR3An PrYdE 4 LyF

Biggie's team has literally been carried by 2 Koreans (or I guess 1 and 1/8?): Kyler and Koo. A miracle that he may actually make the playoffs after losing his 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th round picks to injuries, trades, and ill-advised drops, Biggie is grateful just to be in the playoff race.

Paul: Being able to blame bad luck

Paul has had 1403.86 points scored against him this season. He's had people score 161.22, 155.06, 137.16, 135.38, 134.20, and 133.02 points against him. He's lost to his last place brother and even when his opponent scored under 100 points, he lost by 6, losing at the last second on a Mahomes TD. Hopefully this bad luck will disappear along with all of 2020.

David Y: Being able to blame injuries

David's team actually is actually underperforming a bit based on his PF but injuries have definitely affected his team's performance. Losing your top WR and RB for multiple weeks can destroy any team but especially when that RB is CMC and you were the first pick. Losing pick 1 and 25 means your team is relying on players drafted 47th or later to carry your team throughout the season. Hopefully his injury luck next year will be a little bit better.

Chris: Somehow competing without making any roster moves

The fact that Chris has 3 wins is baffling. One of those wins was when Rodgers and Adams combined to put up nearly 80 points (of course, against bad luck Paul). The fact that he's not in last place despite only making 3 moves is fascinating. Maybe he can salvage the season in the consolation bracket.

David K:Not being last

In a huge, nail-biting matchup yesterday, David was able to knock off Jung, escaping the number 12 spot for at least one week. Subject to much of my mockery on this blog, David has rolled off 2 wins in a row, including one against Dan's first place team. Let's see if he can take this momentum into the consolation playoffs and get that gift card.

Jung: Savoring his week 3 win against Dan

It seems like ages ago but when the Cowboys were healthy, Wentz hadn't regressed into Mitch Trubisky, and he still had Nuk and Zeke, his team had the look of a legitimate playoff contender. He had knocked off Chris and Dan to start off 2-1 and the potential looked limitless. Since then, Jung hasn't had a win but he can always claim that he knocked off Dan, a feat that only he and David K can claim so far this season.

Happy Thanksgiving to each and every one of you! I hope you have a safe and enjoyable time with whomever you are celebrating with!

Good luck to all!

SPECIAL PAYOUT NOTE:

Going forward, I will also be updating the table below to keep everyone reminded of the payout structure at the given moment in case there is an abrupt end to the season. Anything grey and crossed out are no longer possibilities and the highlighted text is what the current payout would be if an abrupt cancellation were to happen:

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after <10 regular season games: All money is returned to owners.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 10-12 regular season games: Top 6 seeds (playoff teams) receive $150, Bottom 6 seeds receive $50.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 13 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $250, Seeds 4-6 receive $175
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $300
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $550 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $50 each.
Season shortened prior to start of season 11+ games: We will have to adjust to however Yahoo changes things. If there is a way to adjust it myself, I will work backwards and make room for the playoffs as we currently do (3 of the last 4 weeks, not including the final week of the season). For example, if the season is cut to 12 games, I would try to adjust it so that the regular season is weeks 1-8, and the playoffs are weeks 9-11.
Season shortened prior to start of season <11 games: With the randomness of fantasy football, any fantasy regular season that is less than 7 weeks is too short to determine a proper winner. If this happens, I will return HALF the money back to all participants and we will be playing the shortened season for a smaller prize (Total prize pool of $600). 

Week 11 - MOLW and MOTW

David K might be out of the playoff race but he's made the last 3 last weeks interesting for the playoff teams fighting for a bye.

MOLW:

Dan vs. David K

David had what looked to be a relatively comfortable 21.62 point lead going into Monday night with only a receiver left for Dan against a formidable Bears defense. I thought to myself "as long as Jefferson doesn't catch a TD, David should be okay." Jefferson started the night off with a couple decent chunk gains to gain first downs but wasn't really a threat to David K until late in the third when a HUGE 50+ yard gain (basically a TD) got Dan within striking distance of stealing the win. Jefferson got them to within the 10 yard line to get the TD that would earn Dan that win. Unfortunately for Dan, Thielen picked up his 2nd TD of the night and the Vikings stopped throwing the ball as they protected a lead. David K gave Dan only his 2nd loss of the season but allowed myself, Jon, and Mike to get in position to knock him further down the standings and lose his bye. (Interestingly enough, Dan has only lost to Jung and David K, the 2 lowest ranked teams in the league, each of who do not average 100 ppg).

So the MOTW of this week features 2 of those teams that will be fighting for that #1 playoff seed (with apologies to Cho and Biggie in a huge fight for 6th place).

(One last note: the playoff race is basically down to 7 teams, although Paul, David, and Chris could theoretically make it if Biggie loses this week and they run the table. If Biggie wins this week, the playoff field is all but set with just the positioning to be left to be determined. This seeding is even more important than most years due to the possibility of a cancelled season)

MOTW
2. BEST TEAM vs. 3. Fe-Brees

This is literally for at least the #2 seed, possibly the #1 seed if Dan also falters this week. That bye is ever so tantalizing for the reason stated above, as well as being able to relax for week 14 while other managers have to duke it out in the wild card round.

Studs: Thielen vs. Cook

This is an interesting answer to the question: How will the Vikings try to destroy the Cowboys? Will they demolish a secondary that hasn't been able to stop any QB, even making Mayfield and Daniel Jones look like competent QBs? Or will they run them to death, against a front 7 with more holes than my 14 year old Jordan shimmer shorts? I think somehow the answer will be both as Thielen and Cook should both feast. The matchup may be decided by who feasts more.

Duds: A.J. Brown vs. Godwin

Duds were tough to pick this week but A.J. Brown will most likely be shadowed by Humphrey, resulting in a bigger day for Corey Davis than Brown. That game is expected to be a slog, with 2 run dominant teams in a low scoring game. Godwin on the other hand should be able to avoid the wrath of Jalen Ramsey but with AB, Gronk, and Mike Evans, I'm worried about his overall targets, not just in this game, but for the rest of the season.

X-Factors: Anderson vs. Watson

Robby Anderson is quietly having a monster year. 5th in yards, 5th in receptions, 5th in targets, and 9th in 20+ yard plays. He's cooled down after a scintillating start but if he can find his form again against a weak Lions secondary, he could explode for a 20+ point performance. Watson surely misses Hopkins, but he's still been a force. If you take out last week's game in Cleveland, which was played in a hail-tornado-cane, he's posted 28+ points every week since week 5. Last year, he dominated the Patriots defense but the 2 previous times he's thrown as many INTs as TDs. In what can be seen as a down year for the Patriots, that allowed Joe Flacco to re-live his glory days as a Raven, we'll see if Watson can bounce back from a disappointing showing in Cleveland.

Key Players on Bye:

Mike - None (McKinnon and Brown have not been factors for Mike's team in recent weeks)

Jon - Allen - Thankfully Jon has Watson, in a relatively favorable matchup, to cushion the blow of missing Allen. If anything, it might save him the headache of needing to choose between the two.

Winner: Jon

Honestly, this week is very favorable for Jon. None of his players have a truly terrible matchup and should be involved in very high scoring affairs. Much of Mike's production is based on the Tennessee offense and while they should be able to move the ball, their ceiling is limited against a top tier defense. He's got enough talent to compete but I see his grasp on the bye slipping away this week.

Good luck to all!

SPECIAL PAYOUT NOTE:

Going forward, I will also be updating the table below to keep everyone reminded of the payout structure at the given moment in case there is an abrupt end to the season. Anything grey and crossed out are no longer possibilities and the highlighted text is what the current payout would be if an abrupt cancellation were to happen:

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after <10 regular season games: All money is returned to owners.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 10-12 regular season games: Top 6 seeds (playoff teams) receive $150, Bottom 6 seeds receive $50.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 13 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $250, Seeds 4-6 receive $175
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $300
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $550 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $50 each.
Season shortened prior to start of season 11+ games: We will have to adjust to however Yahoo changes things. If there is a way to adjust it myself, I will work backwards and make room for the playoffs as we currently do (3 of the last 4 weeks, not including the final week of the season). For example, if the season is cut to 12 games, I would try to adjust it so that the regular season is weeks 1-8, and the playoffs are weeks 9-11.
Season shortened prior to start of season <11 games: With the randomness of fantasy football, any fantasy regular season that is less than 7 weeks is too short to determine a proper winner. If this happens, I will return HALF the money back to all participants and we will be playing the shortened season for a smaller prize (Total prize pool of $600). 

Week 10 - MOLW and MOTW

Another week, another terrible Monday night for David Y.

MOLW:

David Y vs. Biggie Cho

David's letdown was worsened based on what happened Sunday night. He took an 86.8-79.24 lead into the big Saints Bucs game. He had RoJo, Cho had a kicker, a defense, and a running back to go on Monday night. Things were looking a bit grim when RoJo only pulled out 3.3 points in a game the entire TB offense faltered. But thanks to their entire team failing, Cho's ancillary players were only able to score 5 points. David took a slender 5.86 point lead into Monday night. With the potential return of Sony Michel, it looked like Damien Harris would have a pretty hard time reaching the total he needed.

The night started off great for David. Harris really had to work hard for his yards, unable to gain chunk yards against a reinvigorated Jets defense. He even fumbled a ball (that he didn't lose) which got him on Bill's bad list, ceding more carries to Burkhead than normal. But after a nail-biting first half, with 5:34 left in the game, Damien Harris hit a 21 yard run, his biggest of the night, to put Cho up by 1.24 points. Furthermore, David couldn't even hope for a fumble to take back the lead as Harris got hurt on the play and left the game for good. Poor David has had 3 Monday night games go against him.

MOTW
7. Koobra Kai vs. 8. The Glory Hogans

Biggie did get destroyed last week, as we expected, and New England couldn't capitalize on Flacco's first start of the season to put up the 45 points he needed for the win. But he did make up a lot of ground in the PF race, putting him in position to actually contend for a playoff spot. Paul is on the precipice of being eliminated for good. At 3-6, 1 more loss pretty much spells doom for him. This is a do or die week for him.

Studs: Kirk vs. Brown

Christian Kirk has been the large beneficiary of defenses focusing on Deandre Hopkins. This should be the case again this week as White follows Hopkins around the formation, Kirk should be able to exploit a secondary that just got ripped apart by the Seahawks. Marquise Brown has been waiting for a breakout game and this could be it. While the Ravens will never be a pass happy team, the Patriots secondary allowed Flacco to look like a star again. If Harbaugh doesn't have at least 6-9 targets in store for Marquise, I would be surprised.

Duds: Green vs. Tennessee

Although Cincy should be throwing a lot, I can see Haden shadowing Green to take him out of the game. Will Burrow have enough time to get the ball to any of his downfield threats? I don't think so. I'm seeing a huge Tyler Boyd game this week. On the flip side, while the Titans matchup against the Colts looks like a great one on paper, I expect the Colts to play conservative, run first football in this matchup. The Titans defense hasn't been great all season and there's no reason to think that they'll be more prepared on a short week.

X-Factors: Mixon and Carson

2 running backs returning from injuries. Both were slated to be low end RB1s this year but injuries have limited their raw point totals. When they do play, they have been solid producers, owning their respective backfield in touches. As both are still projected to be game time calls, this could be the position battle that decides the matchup.

Key Players on Bye:

Biggie - Koo - I know losing a kicker to a bye week usually doesn't matter but Koo is arguably Biggie's second most consistent player behind Kyler. He's only posted a sub-8 point game one time all season. 4 of the last 5 weeks have been 12+ points, the mark of a solid WR2 or RB2. 

Paul - Hurst, Ridley - Losing 2 pieces of the Falcons receiving squad to bye is tough and could be the difference in what should be a close matchup.

Winner: Paul

While Biggie has been trending up, I think the Brees, Kamara, Carson combo is too much for Kyler to overcome on his own. I can see Biggie's receivers putting up slightly higher numbers than Paul's, but the RB situation should be a massacre in favor of Paul. Paul brings Biggie down to .500 and if Cho or Eric falter this week, the race for the 6 seed will be coming down to the wire.

Good luck to all!

SPECIAL PAYOUT NOTE:

Going forward, I will also be updating the table below to keep everyone reminded of the payout structure at the given moment in case there is an abrupt end to the season. Anything grey and crossed out are no longer possibilities and the highlighted text is what the current payout would be if an abrupt cancellation were to happen:

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after <10 regular season games: All money is returned to owners.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 10-12 regular season games: Top 6 seeds (playoff teams) receive $150, Bottom 6 seeds receive $50.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 13 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $250, Seeds 4-6 receive $175
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $300
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $550 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $50 each.
Season shortened prior to start of season 11+ games: We will have to adjust to however Yahoo changes things. If there is a way to adjust it myself, I will work backwards and make room for the playoffs as we currently do (3 of the last 4 weeks, not including the final week of the season). For example, if the season is cut to 12 games, I would try to adjust it so that the regular season is weeks 1-8, and the playoffs are weeks 9-11.
Season shortened prior to start of season <11 games: With the randomness of fantasy football, any fantasy regular season that is less than 7 weeks is too short to determine a proper winner. If this happens, I will return HALF the money back to all participants and we will be playing the shortened season for a smaller prize (Total prize pool of $600). 

Week 9 - MOLW and MOTW

There were no Monday night matchups quite as intense as the previous 2 MOLWs but Biggie was once again involved in an upset win that came down to the wire.

MOLW:

David Y vs. Biggie

Biggie had a 10 point lead and Wayne Gallman while David had RoJo and Gronk. From the get go, it looked like RoJo was going to have a big game until he lost the faith of the entire coaching staff when he fumbled on what actually should have been an incomplete pass. Fournette carried every ball of the first half after that and Gronk was nowhere to be seen. On the other side, Gallman eventually scored a TD that put Biggie up by almost 20 points. However, David staged one last comeback. Gronk scored a TD and RoJo got involved again but Daniel Jones couldn't convert a 2PT conversion that would have sent the game to OT and given David a chance at the TD or 2 catches and 49 yards to put him over the top. 

The fact that Biggie remains at 5-3 and in the playoff picture has to irk some people (specifically, Cho, Paul, and David Y). He has a negative point differential and the 2nd lowest PF in the league. But as the NFC East has shown us this season, a win is a win and all you really need to do is make the playoffs to make some noise. We'll see if Biggie's luck can continue again this week.

MOTW
3. Fe-Brees vs. 6. 1 1/2 koreans

I was a bit hesitant to choose this matchup as the MOTW since I think it might be a blowout and because Biggie's matchup against Paul next week is probably a great candidate for MOTW as the loser may be eliminated from the playoff race. However, these teams sport the same record and this is a great opportunity for the winner to put a game between him and the teams pursuing a wild card spot.

Studs: Watson vs. JuJu

While Dalvin is the obvious answer here, I see a monster game coming from Deshaun. This is the same Jacksonville secondary that got torched for 359 and 3 TDs 3 weeks ago by.... Deshaun Watson. Expect him to clean up the turnovers and potentially throw for more yards in this rematch. JuJu has finally gotten involved in this offense again and he gets a Dallas secondary that hasn't been able to stop anyone. The #1 WR in the past 3 games have posted 6-78-1, 7-90-1, 2-86-2 (ridiculous efficiency) lines and there doesn't really seem to be any reason why JuJu can't be the next one to post a similar line.

Duds: Zeke vs. Kelley

Zeke faces a tough Pittsburgh front that has been stingy on defense all season. On top of that, expect stacked boxes, just like against the Eagles, as they'll have a new QB in the backfield. Kelley hasn't been able to take over the bell cow role and has been the 1B running back behind Justin Jackson. Although the matchup looks easier on paper, I see more of a shootout where Herbert will be asked to try and win the game with his arm.

X-Factors: Hockenson vs. New England

Don't be surprised if Hockenson gets 15+ targets in this one. I know. It seems ridiculous. But with no Golladay against a soft Minny defense (at least by their standards), expect Stafford to look to his big TE over and over again. New England gets a GREAT matchup against the Jets but the real reason they are the X-factor is because they play on Monday night. Biggie has pulled out 2 close wins out of his butt on Monday night. Can New England pull the third?

Key Players on Bye:

Jon - None
Biggie - Mixon, Green, Higgins - Losing his top backfield option is REALLY making me regret writing this matchup as this looks to be a blowout of the week. On top of that, he loses 2 of his WR3 rotation players... why did I pick this matchup?

Winner: Jon

Just for fun, let's look at Jon's 3 lowest scores:

97.12, 102.08, 116.12

And Biggie's 3 highest:

119.52, 111.42, 109.2

My God. Take mercy on Biggie. I think Biggie is going to need a 50 point game from New England.... just to lose by 10. 

Good luck to all!