Wow, this past week was brutal. 3 teams all got officially eliminated from the playoff race. Dan, Eric, and Jung, prep your teams for the gift card bowl.
Cho and Paul look relatively safe even though they TECHNICALLY haven't locked in their place. However, Cho leads Jon (the only current outsider who can still sneak in) by over 140 points. There's absolutely no way to make up that differential. Also, while not as massive, Paul leads Jon by over 80 points; another safe margin. This leaves 3 teams fighting for 2 spots: Biggie, Mike, and Jon. Obviously a loss by Jon auto-clinches for Biggie and Mike (and this might happen as Jon plays Todd Gurley off a bye), but in case he does win and one of the other two drops a game (Biggie plays Simon, currently 1st, and Mike plays Chris, currently last), the points tiebreaker will come into effect. Those teams are separated by less than 30 points, with Biggie and Jon (the 2 most likely to be fighting for the final spot) separated by fewer than 4 points.
What does this all mean? It just means if Jon wins and Biggie and Mike lose, one of them is going to upset that they're playing for a gift card when they should be fighting for a 4 figure payday.
Could I have written more for this post? Possibly. But honestly, I was kind of hoping that Dan and Eric would win, Biggie and Jon would lose, and there would be more drama heading into week 13. Instead, we're left with a 3 team race. I'll save my long write-up for the playoff preview next week when the seeds are set.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
Week 12 - MOTW: Playoffs on the Line
We had some serious contenders for this week's MOTW. Eric scored 55 points and won last week to keep his slight playoff hopes alive and Jung and Mike face off trying to rebound from blowout losses to the 2 leaders of the league. However, all the above parties have been in MOTWs this year so to keep my entire fan base happy AND focus on a bubble team that hasn't gotten enough love, we'll look to a clash of 2 former champs.
MOTW
3. Jacked Up! vs. 7. Fournetflix 'n CHiLL
Cho is a long shot to receive a bye but with 4 6-5 teams trying to take his spot, he can't rest easy yet. Biggie on the other hand needs to win this week or his shot at the playoffs may be all but over. He's made up considerable ground in the points tiebreaker but he still trails everyone ahead of him (and even a few teams behind him). But 4 straight wins while averaging 111.71 ppg has gotten him right back in the playoff mix. Let's see if he can continue his ascent.
Cho's Top 3:
1. Zeke (RB) - 20
2. Evans (WR) - 18
3. Jordan Reed (TE) - 16
First things first, the lack of Mahomes is going to kill Cho this week. The best QB on the waiver wire is... Carr against a stingy Ravens D? Darnold at the hell-hole they call Gillette? Keenum against the Steelers? Either way, his QB spot is probably going to look worse when most weeks when Mahomes is scoring 30+. He'll have to lean on his other skill positions to get him the W but it's going to be tough. Zeke should get his. Washington's morale is destroyed and Zeke eats against any opponent. We'll see if this one ends up being a Thanksgiving feast. Next, Evans will be matched up against Richard Sherman but this isn't the Richard Sherman of old. He's beatable and he will be against one of the bigger, more physical receivers in the game. Winston definitely clicks better with Evans than Fitzmagic so expect extra looks in the end zone. Finally... wait, what? Jordan Reed? You're putting him in the top 3 when he's only had 2 games over 10 points all season? Are you insane? Yes, I am insane. But look at the rest of Cho's team. Other than his yet to be named QB, where else are we getting 15+ points? Plus, Dallas can be beat by TEs (see: Ertz, Zach) and McCoy should be looking for his big target in his first start this year.
Biggie's Top 3:
1. Watson (QB) - 30
2. Julio (WR) - 28
3. Fournette (RB) - 26
DeShaun loves the spotlight. He carried his Clemson team to the ship against favorites Alabama in the CFP championship, and he exploded onto the scene with a 13-9 win against Cincy during his rookie year on TNF. With another chance to showcase his skills against a division opponent on prime time television, expect fireworks. The Titans D is good enough to force some mistakes but with DT having one more week to work with the offense and Keke returning to full health, Watson should have plenty of weapons to score big. Julio will get to face an improving Saints D but due to the fact that NO should put up 40+, expect at least 15 targets Julio's way. And with that many targets, you know Julio will explode. Fournette came back just in time for Biggie's stretch run. While the Jaguars and Bortles still suck, their O-line is still good and the Jags should be able to take the lead against a hapless Bills team. That means 25+ touches for Fournette and we all know that with that volume, it's just a matter of time before you end up in the end zone.
X-Factor: Anonymous QB (QB, Cho) vs. Kittle (TE, Biggie)
As aforementioned, the QB chosen by Cho could make or break him this week. For Biggie, Kittle is back from his bye and ready to tear down a TB team that couldn't stop a flag football team from scoring on them. He's developed a connection with Mullens and should put up at least 80 yards and a TD.
Potential Starters Missing Due to Bye:
Cho: Mahomes (QB) (Ouch)
Biggie: None
Winner: Biggie
As you can see, if the top 3 scorers on one team tops the highest scorer on the other team, that's usually the sign of a blowout. Cho's players have some unfortunate matchups and the missing Mahomes makes this a tough week for him. Could this loss lead to an unprecedented slide out of the playoffs? We'll find out next week!
Good luck to all! And Happy Thanksgiving! Enjoy your time with loved ones!
Simon Kim
MOTW
3. Jacked Up! vs. 7. Fournetflix 'n CHiLL
Cho is a long shot to receive a bye but with 4 6-5 teams trying to take his spot, he can't rest easy yet. Biggie on the other hand needs to win this week or his shot at the playoffs may be all but over. He's made up considerable ground in the points tiebreaker but he still trails everyone ahead of him (and even a few teams behind him). But 4 straight wins while averaging 111.71 ppg has gotten him right back in the playoff mix. Let's see if he can continue his ascent.
Cho's Top 3:
1. Zeke (RB) - 20
2. Evans (WR) - 18
3. Jordan Reed (TE) - 16
First things first, the lack of Mahomes is going to kill Cho this week. The best QB on the waiver wire is... Carr against a stingy Ravens D? Darnold at the hell-hole they call Gillette? Keenum against the Steelers? Either way, his QB spot is probably going to look worse when most weeks when Mahomes is scoring 30+. He'll have to lean on his other skill positions to get him the W but it's going to be tough. Zeke should get his. Washington's morale is destroyed and Zeke eats against any opponent. We'll see if this one ends up being a Thanksgiving feast. Next, Evans will be matched up against Richard Sherman but this isn't the Richard Sherman of old. He's beatable and he will be against one of the bigger, more physical receivers in the game. Winston definitely clicks better with Evans than Fitzmagic so expect extra looks in the end zone. Finally... wait, what? Jordan Reed? You're putting him in the top 3 when he's only had 2 games over 10 points all season? Are you insane? Yes, I am insane. But look at the rest of Cho's team. Other than his yet to be named QB, where else are we getting 15+ points? Plus, Dallas can be beat by TEs (see: Ertz, Zach) and McCoy should be looking for his big target in his first start this year.
Biggie's Top 3:
1. Watson (QB) - 30
2. Julio (WR) - 28
3. Fournette (RB) - 26
DeShaun loves the spotlight. He carried his Clemson team to the ship against favorites Alabama in the CFP championship, and he exploded onto the scene with a 13-9 win against Cincy during his rookie year on TNF. With another chance to showcase his skills against a division opponent on prime time television, expect fireworks. The Titans D is good enough to force some mistakes but with DT having one more week to work with the offense and Keke returning to full health, Watson should have plenty of weapons to score big. Julio will get to face an improving Saints D but due to the fact that NO should put up 40+, expect at least 15 targets Julio's way. And with that many targets, you know Julio will explode. Fournette came back just in time for Biggie's stretch run. While the Jaguars and Bortles still suck, their O-line is still good and the Jags should be able to take the lead against a hapless Bills team. That means 25+ touches for Fournette and we all know that with that volume, it's just a matter of time before you end up in the end zone.
X-Factor: Anonymous QB (QB, Cho) vs. Kittle (TE, Biggie)
As aforementioned, the QB chosen by Cho could make or break him this week. For Biggie, Kittle is back from his bye and ready to tear down a TB team that couldn't stop a flag football team from scoring on them. He's developed a connection with Mullens and should put up at least 80 yards and a TD.
Potential Starters Missing Due to Bye:
Cho: Mahomes (QB) (Ouch)
Biggie: None
Winner: Biggie
As you can see, if the top 3 scorers on one team tops the highest scorer on the other team, that's usually the sign of a blowout. Cho's players have some unfortunate matchups and the missing Mahomes makes this a tough week for him. Could this loss lead to an unprecedented slide out of the playoffs? We'll find out next week!
Good luck to all! And Happy Thanksgiving! Enjoy your time with loved ones!
Simon Kim
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Week 11 - In or Out?
10 weeks are in the books and only 1 team has been eliminated for sure. In what will be a frantic finish, with almost every playoff contender facing their direct competition for the coveted spots, the playoffs have basically already started with de facto elimination games occurring every week. We'll take a look at the current standings, remaining schedule, and the effects of the week 11 and 12 bye, to determine which of the 11 teams will make the playoffs and which will be on the outside looking in.
The "All-But-Clinched"
1. Bless'm
2. Orange MFN Charizard
These two teams have a minimum 2 game lead on all the other teams with 3 games to go. To drop out of the playoffs, they would need to lose all of their games, have specific teams finish 8-7 (due to scheduling, some of the teams will eliminate each other as they fight for playoff qualification), and lose the 100+ points for tiebreaker. I just don't see that happening. They also have the inside track on securing the bye. The only question remaining is which one will end up as the 1 vs. the 2 seed.
12. Shock the F'n World
Nobody was shocked to see Chris missing out on the playoffs. While his team has had some pleasant surprises (AP, Mack, Goff), his inability to play them in the proper weeks AND inability to keep his roster updated (WHY IS FREEMAN STILL ON THE ROSTER?) has resulted in a terrible rookie season. He will be put on probation for next year (if he decides to play) and will be kicked out of the league if his inactive management style continues.
The "Heavy Favorites"
3. Jacked Up!
He owns the point tiebreaker against the rest of the league (save the top 2) and he will finish his season playing 3 teams that are currently in the bottom half of the table. He will miss Mahomes in week 12 but 1 win should be enough to secure his place.
4. Fe-Brees
Missing Michel in week 11, Cooks in week 12, and AJ Green potentially through both makes me a little nervous to put him in this tier but he should be able to survive either Biggie or David Y, needing only one of those victories to play past week 13.
The "Anybody's Guess"
This is where the real analysis begins. 5 teams will fight for 2 playoff spots. Let's see what's in store for them in the next 21 days and make a prediction on each team.
5. Just Forsett In
Currently has a 1 game lead on everyone but other than Melvin Gordon and Zach Ertz, his team has struggled; his team isn't averaging over 100 a game. The great news is he gets Chris's team in week 13, a team that has struggled all season and one that Mike beat by almost 30 points earlier this season. That win gets him to 7 but the 8th that clinches his playoff future should be against a Kareem Hunt-less Jung's team in week 12. He'll be one of the weaker teams going into the playoffs but all you need to do is to get in to give yourself a chance.
VERDICT: IN
6. The Glory Hogans
Paul wants the season to end today but unfortunately he needs to keep the horde from coming after him in the next 3 weeks. He should get the first win he needs this week against David Y and follow that up with a win against a Gurley-less Eric's team. However, his own brother may be his demise, dropping him to 7-6, tied with one of the other teams below and losing on the points tiebreaker. Let's hope that loss doesn't put a damper on their Christmas gathering.
VERDICT: OUT
7. Berries 'n Kareem
Due to his relatively low points for, Jung needs 3 wins (or crazy amounts of losses by his competition) to guarantee his spot. Unfortunately, he needs to do this against the 1st, 5th and 9th (who has the 4th highest points in the league) place teams. To make matters worse, Jung might be the team that relies on players with week 11/12 byes the most. He'll be missing Brady, White, Amendola, Stills, and Goodwin for week 11 and Hunt for week 12. I see an unfortunate 1-2 or 0-3 finish for Jung and not even receiving a bye in the relegation bracket.
VERDICT: OUT
8. Fournetflix 'n CHiLL
Fournette is FINALLY back and after trading Ty Mont, GB has finally utilized the other Aaron as a bell cow back. But is that enough to overcome his major point deficiency? He has the 3rd lowest points for and he must face the 4th, 3rd, and 1st place teams to end his season, needing AT LEAST 2 wins to have a chance at the playoffs. Other than Kittle missing for one week, he'll have his full team to face this uphill battle but I just can't see this ending well for Biggie.
VERDICT: OUT
9. Afghanistananis
Dan has only 1 option: win out. At that point, he'll be 7-6 and hoping that his 4th highest points for will be enough to push him into the postseason. He faces the 4th and 1st place team which will make this difficult but he plays a direct competitor in Jung (7th) which will help him leapfrog him in the standings. He's passed through bye-week hell and has his full roster for the next 3 weeks. IF he can get past Cho this week, he faces Simon's team without Hill or Legatron. I think he gets the 3 wins and becomes a team nobody wants to play in the playoffs.
VERDICT: IN
The "I Can't Believe a Team with Gurley Didn't Make the Playoffs"
10. Kerryon MyWaywardSon
While he should get a win in week 11 against Chris's team, week 12 without Gurley may be the week that he receives this 8th loss and ends his playoff push. Even if he wins out, he'll need a specific scenario where all of the 5-5 teams lose 2 of their games and Dan wins fewer games than him. While this is theoretically possible (the 5-5 teams don't play each other), it just seems like too many things needing to go right for his team to make the playoffs. Look at some of the losses Eric has taken:
Week 4: 123.2 - 119.58 (Jared cook catches 110 + 2TD, Case Keenum missing Demaryius on a WIDE OPEN TD pass on Monday night)
Week 5: 115.82 - 114.02 (Ridley cools off after 3 straight weeks of 12+ points, 2 TD a piece from Steelers Antonio and Conner)
Week 10: 122.92 - 118.2 (Melvin Gordon outperforms Gurley, over 40% of Wentz's yards and 100% of his TDs go to Ertz, Mixon underperforms while Kerryon breaks out on bench).
Let's just hope Eric comes back next year to play instead of destroying all of Yahoo's servers.
The "Wait Til Next Year"
11. David Y Team
While not mathematically eliminated, David will have a hard time coming back to nab a playoff spot. Bell's non-existent return + lowest current total points + last 3 games against the 6th (w/o Breida and McCoy), 4th, and 3rd place teams smells like doom for me. This just goes to show, if you don't invest in your team name, your team won't invest in you.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
Byes: Simon, David K
Wild Card: Cho, Jon, Mike (Auto-Draft FTW!), Dan
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
The "All-But-Clinched"
1. Bless'm
2. Orange MFN Charizard
These two teams have a minimum 2 game lead on all the other teams with 3 games to go. To drop out of the playoffs, they would need to lose all of their games, have specific teams finish 8-7 (due to scheduling, some of the teams will eliminate each other as they fight for playoff qualification), and lose the 100+ points for tiebreaker. I just don't see that happening. They also have the inside track on securing the bye. The only question remaining is which one will end up as the 1 vs. the 2 seed.
12. Shock the F'n World
Nobody was shocked to see Chris missing out on the playoffs. While his team has had some pleasant surprises (AP, Mack, Goff), his inability to play them in the proper weeks AND inability to keep his roster updated (WHY IS FREEMAN STILL ON THE ROSTER?) has resulted in a terrible rookie season. He will be put on probation for next year (if he decides to play) and will be kicked out of the league if his inactive management style continues.
The "Heavy Favorites"
3. Jacked Up!
He owns the point tiebreaker against the rest of the league (save the top 2) and he will finish his season playing 3 teams that are currently in the bottom half of the table. He will miss Mahomes in week 12 but 1 win should be enough to secure his place.
4. Fe-Brees
Missing Michel in week 11, Cooks in week 12, and AJ Green potentially through both makes me a little nervous to put him in this tier but he should be able to survive either Biggie or David Y, needing only one of those victories to play past week 13.
The "Anybody's Guess"
This is where the real analysis begins. 5 teams will fight for 2 playoff spots. Let's see what's in store for them in the next 21 days and make a prediction on each team.
5. Just Forsett In
Currently has a 1 game lead on everyone but other than Melvin Gordon and Zach Ertz, his team has struggled; his team isn't averaging over 100 a game. The great news is he gets Chris's team in week 13, a team that has struggled all season and one that Mike beat by almost 30 points earlier this season. That win gets him to 7 but the 8th that clinches his playoff future should be against a Kareem Hunt-less Jung's team in week 12. He'll be one of the weaker teams going into the playoffs but all you need to do is to get in to give yourself a chance.
VERDICT: IN
6. The Glory Hogans
Paul wants the season to end today but unfortunately he needs to keep the horde from coming after him in the next 3 weeks. He should get the first win he needs this week against David Y and follow that up with a win against a Gurley-less Eric's team. However, his own brother may be his demise, dropping him to 7-6, tied with one of the other teams below and losing on the points tiebreaker. Let's hope that loss doesn't put a damper on their Christmas gathering.
VERDICT: OUT
7. Berries 'n Kareem
Due to his relatively low points for, Jung needs 3 wins (or crazy amounts of losses by his competition) to guarantee his spot. Unfortunately, he needs to do this against the 1st, 5th and 9th (who has the 4th highest points in the league) place teams. To make matters worse, Jung might be the team that relies on players with week 11/12 byes the most. He'll be missing Brady, White, Amendola, Stills, and Goodwin for week 11 and Hunt for week 12. I see an unfortunate 1-2 or 0-3 finish for Jung and not even receiving a bye in the relegation bracket.
VERDICT: OUT
8. Fournetflix 'n CHiLL
Fournette is FINALLY back and after trading Ty Mont, GB has finally utilized the other Aaron as a bell cow back. But is that enough to overcome his major point deficiency? He has the 3rd lowest points for and he must face the 4th, 3rd, and 1st place teams to end his season, needing AT LEAST 2 wins to have a chance at the playoffs. Other than Kittle missing for one week, he'll have his full team to face this uphill battle but I just can't see this ending well for Biggie.
VERDICT: OUT
9. Afghanistananis
Dan has only 1 option: win out. At that point, he'll be 7-6 and hoping that his 4th highest points for will be enough to push him into the postseason. He faces the 4th and 1st place team which will make this difficult but he plays a direct competitor in Jung (7th) which will help him leapfrog him in the standings. He's passed through bye-week hell and has his full roster for the next 3 weeks. IF he can get past Cho this week, he faces Simon's team without Hill or Legatron. I think he gets the 3 wins and becomes a team nobody wants to play in the playoffs.
VERDICT: IN
The "I Can't Believe a Team with Gurley Didn't Make the Playoffs"
10. Kerryon MyWaywardSon
While he should get a win in week 11 against Chris's team, week 12 without Gurley may be the week that he receives this 8th loss and ends his playoff push. Even if he wins out, he'll need a specific scenario where all of the 5-5 teams lose 2 of their games and Dan wins fewer games than him. While this is theoretically possible (the 5-5 teams don't play each other), it just seems like too many things needing to go right for his team to make the playoffs. Look at some of the losses Eric has taken:
Week 4: 123.2 - 119.58 (Jared cook catches 110 + 2TD, Case Keenum missing Demaryius on a WIDE OPEN TD pass on Monday night)
Week 5: 115.82 - 114.02 (Ridley cools off after 3 straight weeks of 12+ points, 2 TD a piece from Steelers Antonio and Conner)
Week 10: 122.92 - 118.2 (Melvin Gordon outperforms Gurley, over 40% of Wentz's yards and 100% of his TDs go to Ertz, Mixon underperforms while Kerryon breaks out on bench).
Let's just hope Eric comes back next year to play instead of destroying all of Yahoo's servers.
The "Wait Til Next Year"
11. David Y Team
While not mathematically eliminated, David will have a hard time coming back to nab a playoff spot. Bell's non-existent return + lowest current total points + last 3 games against the 6th (w/o Breida and McCoy), 4th, and 3rd place teams smells like doom for me. This just goes to show, if you don't invest in your team name, your team won't invest in you.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
Byes: Simon, David K
Wild Card: Cho, Jon, Mike (Auto-Draft FTW!), Dan
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Wednesday, November 7, 2018
Week 10 - MOTW: Perennially Potent Player Partakes in Pressure Packed Playoff Push against Perpetually Positive Partner (of Jane)
I didn't realize how hard it would be to write an alliterative title but I'm quite proud of my work. If only Jane's name was Patty or Pam. I also may or may not have spent more time writing the title than the MOTW below.
MOTW
6. Fe-Brees vs. 8. Afghanistananis
Even with a win last week, Jon's team is fading fast. David Johnson still hasn't lived up to his top-5 billing, even after his OC got fired. AJ Green will miss a few weeks, his RB2 slot is still a mess until Michel can come back healthy, the Baltimore WRs are fading... but none of that seems to matter as long as Brees continues his MVP-worth season. He'll have a chance to solidify his position in the playoffs against a direct competitor for one of the spots. Dan has been one of the most opportunistic managers this season. He pounced on DeSean Jackson after David Y dropped him for no clear reason. He picked up Conner and has reaped the benefits of Bell missing over half the season. He's gotten one of the best kickers in the league when Mike realized he didn't want to keep 2 on his roster. He's even picked up Dion Lewis who has served as a solid RB2/3. This amazing luck on the waiver wire has allowed him to survive the loss of McKinnon, Jimmy G, and Ajayi and the underwhelming performance of Fitz and Keenan (until last week). If Dan can sneak into the playoffs, he might be able to make some noise and he's headed in the right direction, winning 4 of his last 5 and scoring over 100 points in each contest. How will each team fare in week 10?
Jon's Top 3:
1. Brees (QB) - 32
2. DJ (RB) - 24
3. Jets (DEF) - 21
I don't know if you guys saw the news but Brees actually had a private meeting with his doctor yesterday. He's been experiencing some back pain due to carrying the Saints AND Jon's team on his back towards the playoffs. For a man generously listed at 6 feet, that takes a toll. Luckily, it shouldn't affect his throwing at all, especially against a Cincinnati team that got torched by Matty Ice. As long as Dalton can make it competitive, expect Brees to whip out and slam his penis on everyone's collective desk. While I'm not a DJ believer for the rest of the year (I think he's a high-end RB2 at best) he should get the volume and opportunities he's used to against a Chiefs defense that is getting better but still gets destroyed on the ground. Add that to his usage as a receiver and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with 30+ touches. KC will win the game, but it doesn't mean Arizona won't score 21+ points. Expect a good chunk of that production to be on DJ's shoulders. The Jets are the lucky winners in the "who gets to play the Bills this week?" sweepstakes. They're just salivating at the chance to destroy what's left of Nathan Peterman's confidence. If he didn't have issues before, Bowles, on the hot seat, should throw everything he can to get a dominant victory for his team. All I can say is, I feel bad for the Bills D as they will never get to experience the glory of facing the Peterman/Allen/Anderson trio (other than in practice). Side Note: I think the reason the Buffalo defense has been good to this point is because they gain so much confidence practicing against the putrid offense. I'm sure some of you read The Ringer but there's an insane stat in one of their articles for those that don't: Buffalo QBs have thrown as many TDs to their own players as they have to opposing players. W. T. F.
Dan's Top 3:
1. Brown (WR) - 30
2. Wilson (QB) - 29
3. Allen (WR) - 21
The key to being a great wide receiver is to have a name that ends in an O that you can hold for long periods of time (e.g. ANTONIOOOOOOO, JULIOOOOOOO, DEANDREeeeee...EEEEEEEEE). The Panthers couldn't stop Humphries (a white guy) from torching them so can you imagine what Antonio is going to do? Russell Wilson always picks up his production in the second half of the season. I'm pretty sure Pete has told him multiple times the season starts in September, but Russell waits until it gets as cold in Seattle as it was in Wisconsin, where he played college ball. While the Rams can seem daunting, especially so due to their familiarity in the division, they just got torched by the Saints for 45 points. Russell will get his. Keenan Allen is finally coming back to form after a dreadful first half of the season. Tyrell Williams has been stealing all his TDs and the Melvin + Ekeler backfield has been so good on the short throws, Keenan has been the odd man out. But Rivers wasn't freezing out his man. He was just building up the skill of the other weapons in his arsenal so that when the games started to get more intense in November-February, he'd have more options than to throw 25 times to Keenan. Now that those other weapons are in place and other teams have to account for them, Keenan should get more singled coverage, where he thrives. He's not the fastest, biggest, or most athletic guys, but he's one of the best route-runners and intermediate threats in the league. I haven't seen many people shake off prime Richard Sherman at the line but that's what Keenan is capable of. Expect a big day against a Raiders team that just traded away their most talented remaining pass rusher. No pressure + Rivers's quick release + matchup problems = big day for the Chargers passing game.
X-Factor: Michel (RB, Jon) vs. Cohen (RB, Dan)
The RB2 battle between these two teams may end up deciding the victor in this particular battle. Michel has thankfully returned from injury to prevent a trade-rape of Jon. The question is, will he be 100%? And even if he is, will Belichick trust him like he did prior to the injury? The Titans run defense is stout but Michel should be able to get 12+ against them if he's able to get 20+ touches. Cohen had a dreadful showing last week but that was mostly due to the fact that the Bears defense got more opportunities to score than the offense. Once they were up by 20 points (which I think was mid-way through warm-ups) Cohen wasn't needed. Against a Detroit team that should put up more of a fight (and potentially make it a shootout on the fast turf), Cohen could be leaned on heavily to put the Bears in a position to succeed.
The Real X-Factor: Who is Jon going to play at WR3? Will Dez's contract get signed before this week's games? And even if it does, will he be able to contribute? Is Jon willing to go without a WR3 in a crucial matchup? Who would he drop on his team to pick up a bye-week filler?
Potential Starters Missing Due to Bye:
Jon: Brown (WR), Crabtree (WR)
Dan: Tucker (K)
Winner: Dan
I just think there's too much talent for Jon to overcome and we're not even sure who his third wide receiver is going to be. There's still a chance Michel isn't 100% which makes the RB2 battle tilt in Dan's favor. That, coupled with the WR talent disparity and Russell's ability to match Brees, should result in a win for Dan and a more exciting final 3 weeks of the season.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
MOTW
6. Fe-Brees vs. 8. Afghanistananis
Even with a win last week, Jon's team is fading fast. David Johnson still hasn't lived up to his top-5 billing, even after his OC got fired. AJ Green will miss a few weeks, his RB2 slot is still a mess until Michel can come back healthy, the Baltimore WRs are fading... but none of that seems to matter as long as Brees continues his MVP-worth season. He'll have a chance to solidify his position in the playoffs against a direct competitor for one of the spots. Dan has been one of the most opportunistic managers this season. He pounced on DeSean Jackson after David Y dropped him for no clear reason. He picked up Conner and has reaped the benefits of Bell missing over half the season. He's gotten one of the best kickers in the league when Mike realized he didn't want to keep 2 on his roster. He's even picked up Dion Lewis who has served as a solid RB2/3. This amazing luck on the waiver wire has allowed him to survive the loss of McKinnon, Jimmy G, and Ajayi and the underwhelming performance of Fitz and Keenan (until last week). If Dan can sneak into the playoffs, he might be able to make some noise and he's headed in the right direction, winning 4 of his last 5 and scoring over 100 points in each contest. How will each team fare in week 10?
Jon's Top 3:
1. Brees (QB) - 32
2. DJ (RB) - 24
3. Jets (DEF) - 21
I don't know if you guys saw the news but Brees actually had a private meeting with his doctor yesterday. He's been experiencing some back pain due to carrying the Saints AND Jon's team on his back towards the playoffs. For a man generously listed at 6 feet, that takes a toll. Luckily, it shouldn't affect his throwing at all, especially against a Cincinnati team that got torched by Matty Ice. As long as Dalton can make it competitive, expect Brees to whip out and slam his penis on everyone's collective desk. While I'm not a DJ believer for the rest of the year (I think he's a high-end RB2 at best) he should get the volume and opportunities he's used to against a Chiefs defense that is getting better but still gets destroyed on the ground. Add that to his usage as a receiver and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with 30+ touches. KC will win the game, but it doesn't mean Arizona won't score 21+ points. Expect a good chunk of that production to be on DJ's shoulders. The Jets are the lucky winners in the "who gets to play the Bills this week?" sweepstakes. They're just salivating at the chance to destroy what's left of Nathan Peterman's confidence. If he didn't have issues before, Bowles, on the hot seat, should throw everything he can to get a dominant victory for his team. All I can say is, I feel bad for the Bills D as they will never get to experience the glory of facing the Peterman/Allen/Anderson trio (other than in practice). Side Note: I think the reason the Buffalo defense has been good to this point is because they gain so much confidence practicing against the putrid offense. I'm sure some of you read The Ringer but there's an insane stat in one of their articles for those that don't: Buffalo QBs have thrown as many TDs to their own players as they have to opposing players. W. T. F.
Dan's Top 3:
1. Brown (WR) - 30
2. Wilson (QB) - 29
3. Allen (WR) - 21
The key to being a great wide receiver is to have a name that ends in an O that you can hold for long periods of time (e.g. ANTONIOOOOOOO, JULIOOOOOOO, DEANDREeeeee...EEEEEEEEE). The Panthers couldn't stop Humphries (a white guy) from torching them so can you imagine what Antonio is going to do? Russell Wilson always picks up his production in the second half of the season. I'm pretty sure Pete has told him multiple times the season starts in September, but Russell waits until it gets as cold in Seattle as it was in Wisconsin, where he played college ball. While the Rams can seem daunting, especially so due to their familiarity in the division, they just got torched by the Saints for 45 points. Russell will get his. Keenan Allen is finally coming back to form after a dreadful first half of the season. Tyrell Williams has been stealing all his TDs and the Melvin + Ekeler backfield has been so good on the short throws, Keenan has been the odd man out. But Rivers wasn't freezing out his man. He was just building up the skill of the other weapons in his arsenal so that when the games started to get more intense in November-February, he'd have more options than to throw 25 times to Keenan. Now that those other weapons are in place and other teams have to account for them, Keenan should get more singled coverage, where he thrives. He's not the fastest, biggest, or most athletic guys, but he's one of the best route-runners and intermediate threats in the league. I haven't seen many people shake off prime Richard Sherman at the line but that's what Keenan is capable of. Expect a big day against a Raiders team that just traded away their most talented remaining pass rusher. No pressure + Rivers's quick release + matchup problems = big day for the Chargers passing game.
X-Factor: Michel (RB, Jon) vs. Cohen (RB, Dan)
The RB2 battle between these two teams may end up deciding the victor in this particular battle. Michel has thankfully returned from injury to prevent a trade-rape of Jon. The question is, will he be 100%? And even if he is, will Belichick trust him like he did prior to the injury? The Titans run defense is stout but Michel should be able to get 12+ against them if he's able to get 20+ touches. Cohen had a dreadful showing last week but that was mostly due to the fact that the Bears defense got more opportunities to score than the offense. Once they were up by 20 points (which I think was mid-way through warm-ups) Cohen wasn't needed. Against a Detroit team that should put up more of a fight (and potentially make it a shootout on the fast turf), Cohen could be leaned on heavily to put the Bears in a position to succeed.
The Real X-Factor: Who is Jon going to play at WR3? Will Dez's contract get signed before this week's games? And even if it does, will he be able to contribute? Is Jon willing to go without a WR3 in a crucial matchup? Who would he drop on his team to pick up a bye-week filler?
Potential Starters Missing Due to Bye:
Jon: Brown (WR), Crabtree (WR)
Dan: Tucker (K)
Winner: Dan
I just think there's too much talent for Jon to overcome and we're not even sure who his third wide receiver is going to be. There's still a chance Michel isn't 100% which makes the RB2 battle tilt in Dan's favor. That, coupled with the WR talent disparity and Russell's ability to match Brees, should result in a win for Dan and a more exciting final 3 weeks of the season.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
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