Thursday, November 9, 2017

Rest of Season Predictions

Sorry this post is late. Had 2 back to back 70+ hour weeks so in my free time, I opted to spend it with my wife instead of writing in this blog. It was a tough choice.

Anyways, these predictions might not be as interesting with only 4 weeks left but here goes:

1) David K. will get the second bye
With Simon's team struggling (RIP Watson, Zeke's legal battles, Jordy missing his homeboy Aaron), David just needs to make up 1.5 games (point differential counting as the half game) over 4 weeks. With Simon facing a much tougher end of year schedule than David, it seems likely that David will make it to Week 15 this year.

2) Eric will make the playoffs and advance
While his place in the standings still doesn't represent his team's actual abilities, he's now on the verge of making it in. With a schedule that pits him against 4 of the worst teams in the league based on their scoring ability (none of the 4 opponents average more than 82 points a game), he should be able to reel off 4 straight, or at least capture 3 of 4 with a high PF to capture a playoff spot.

3) Mike and Jon don't make the playoffs
If Eric is making the playoffs, at least one of the teams above him has to fall. Luckily for Eric, both will. They both play brutal schedules, each only playing 1 "easy" opponent, and if it comes down to a tiebreaker, they're going to be in major trouble.

4) Dan, Biggie, and Jung end with the same record, but...
Jung ends up the odd man out in the playoffs due to the PF tiebreaker. 

5) Paul wins the consolation bracket
It seems like the consolation bracket is where Paul shines. We should let him go 0-13 every year just so he can dominate the competition for the gift card.

6) Week 13 will have multiple matchups that may be featured in MOTW
Let's look at the games:
1) Simon and Biggie play in what could decide Biggie's playoff fate and could be a preview for the same matchup the following week
2) Jung and Dan could be directly battling for the last playoff spot
3) Eric and Jon could be playing for a spot if Jon can continue his lucky streak OR Jon could just be playing spoiler
4) David K. and Paul could decide Paul's fate if he can roll off 3 straight victories prior to Week 13

Final predicted standings and current playoff preview:
1) Cho
2) David K.
3) Simon K.
4) Eric
5) Dan
6) Biggie

Wildcard:
Biggie over Simon K.
Eric over Dan

Semi-Finals:
David K. over Biggie
Cho over Eric

Finals:
Cho over David K.

MOTWs will be coming back next week as we analyze key games that will decide the playoff race.

BONUS:

I'll continue to update this as this season has been one of the most shuffled leader boards when comparing the PF vs. W-L. These standings paint a better picture of performance than W-L but in the end, all that matters for the playoffs is W-L.

Week 4                  Week 6                    Week 9
1. Cho (0) 1. Cho (0)               1. Cho (0)
2. Simon (0) 2. Simon (+1)         2. Simon (0)
3. David K. (+3) 3. David K. (+1)    3. Eric (+4)
4. Jung (-1) 4. Dan (+1)            4. David K. (-1)
5. Eric (+4) 5. Eric (+4)            5. Dan (-1)
6. Dan (+1) 6. Jung (0)              6. Jung (+2)
7. Biggie (+1) 7. Paul (+3)            7. Paul (+3)
8. Jon (-4) 8. Biggie (-1)          8. Biggie (+1)
9. Paul (+1)         9. Jon (-7)               9. Mike (-4)
10. Mike (-5) 10. David Y. (+1)   10. Jon (-4)
11. David Y. (0) 11. Mike (-3)          11. David Y. (+1)
12. Alex (0) 12. Alex (0)            12. Alex (-1)


Good luck to all!

Regards,

Simon Kim

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