MOTW - Week 13

Man, have the playoffs just gotten interesting. With only one week left, the first round byes are not yet secured. 3 teams at 9-3 will participate in a final, gut-wrenching week that will leave 2 people very happy and 1 person scrambling for week 14.

But the real stress is happening in the bottom half of the playoff table. 3 teams are tied at 7-5 and trying to fend off one of the best 6-6 teams we've ever seen in this league. The dream scenario has occurred which allows one of these teams, Jon, to play the one fighting for their playoff life (Eric). While Yahoo hasn't locked him in to a playoff spot, Dan is safe thanks to his high PF (unless he scores negative and everyone below him scores 200+), but Mike will need to win or score 41.3 more points than Jon to make sure he's not on the outside looking in this year. Additionally, he'll probably be rooting Jon in the MOTW.

Let's take a look at the matchup that basically makes Week 13 the wildcard weekend in our league.

MOTW
5. Fe-Brees (Jon) vs. 7. Dont Stop BellLeveon (Eric)
This one is for all the marbles and looks to be a fun one as (while projected points mean nothing in the grand scheme of things, I'll use it when it helps me paint a picture like I'm about to do right now) this matchup has the highest total projected points in the final week of the season (at the time of writing, 196.43). Jon technically has a way to back door into the playoffs with a loss by Mike but I'm sure he'd rather control his own destiny. Eric, saddled by bad luck all year, will look to wriseak havoc in the playoffs as the team that nobody wants to face with 3 legitimate stars (Wentz, Gronk, Bell).
QB: Wentz has been on fire lately and in years past, a trip to Seattle was enough to stop even top tier QBs, but with no Sherman or Kam, Wentz should continue his hot streak. Cam should keep it close as he faces a NO defense that's improved but still can be scored on (as the Redskins and Rams showed). Edge: Wentz
WR: We went over Eric's WRs last week and while they still have some big name value, they're not huge threats. Jon still has 2 great #1 options even if Julio is matched up against Xavier Rhodes and Cooks faces a largely improved Bills secondary. The WR3 weakness might be enough to allow Eric to keep this scoring battle close. Edge: Jon
RB: Last week, Eric's RBs destroyed the competition. Don't expect anything different this week. While Jon has better backs than Paul, neither look to be 20 point threats as Bell is. Edge: Eric
TE: The only TEs that can even compete with Gronk at this point are Ertz, Kelce, and Graham. The interesting factor in this matchup is whether Brady will lock in on Gronk or Cooks for his TD passes. That could end up deciding the fate of these two teams. Edge: Eric
K/DEF: Jon is riding the Pittsburgh special teams and it's not a bad group to ride. With a high-powered offense and opportunistic defense, they should put up points. Kansas City has been sliding but should get back on track against a terrible Jets team. Edge: Even

Winner: Eric
Eric gets to make the playoffs, something he deserved from Week 1 but almost didn't happen thanks to his schedule. Jon will be rooting for Alex to beat Mike to fail his way to the 6 seed.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

MOTW - Week 12 (Thanksgiving!)

Happy Thanksgiving to all! Hope you're having a great time eating turkey with your friends and family and getting to relax during this holiday season (unless you're Mike. I hope you're eating enough fried chicken to make up for the lack of turkey).

We'll take a look at a key matchup that will have major playoff implications (like every MOTW after week 10).

MOTW

7. Dont Stop BellLeveon (Eric) vs. 8. Ben There Raped That (Paul)

Paul looked like he might be out of the playoffs with his dreaded 7th loss last week as Sanu couldn't pull through on Monday night. However, if he can keep winning, make up a bit of point differential and Jon or Mike choke under pressure in the last 2 weeks, he still has a shot (albeit a long one). His first task? Take down Eric who is directly ahead of him in the standings.

QB: Wentz has been on fire lately, scoring over 20 points in every week since week 5, but is taking on a Bears defense that has been quite feisty. I'll still give him the edge over Rivers but it'll be quite close as Rivers should be in a position to score a lot of points against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Edge: Eric

WR: AJ Green should feast on the terrible Browns, with the only potential of slowing him down being the same situation. Alshon is actually a great defense against Wentz, and Keenan Allen has double point potential with Rivers. While the talent gap isn't that large (Fitz has quietly been one of the best receivers this year, top 10 in points at the position), the situation dictates a better potential day for Paul. Edge: Paul

RB: None of the other RBs are even worth mentioning in the same breath as Le'veon. Don't be surprised if he scores more than the other 3 RBs combined. Edge: Eric

TE: Gronk is easily a top 3 TE and Clay, even with Tyrod back, won't get close to his numbers. Edge: Eric

K/DEF: Philly defense came up huge for Paul last week to even make his matchup close and he'll need another big day against Trubisky to keep his hopes alive. Lutz should provide a lot of scoring in a Saints game that looks to be as exciting as their matchup with the Redskins last week. Edge: Paul

Winner: Eric

While Paul's WRs will try hard to keep this close, the stars (Le'veon, Gronk, and Wentz) are just too much for him to overcome. It will be a close matchup, within 10 points, and won't be decided until the Sunday night game but Eric will keep his playoff hopes alive while crushing Paul's.

Good luck to all and Happy Thanksgiving once again!

Simon Kim

MOTW - Week 11

And all of my predictions go down the toilet in one week. Jon and Mike somehow keep winning (Jon thinks changing his name every week is going to do something for him) and Biggie's playoff hopes look slim (although not completely gone). Paul is climbing up the boards quickly and is only 1 game back from a playoff spot (including PF tiebreaking scenarios).

So let's focus on a matchup that is basically a playoff game as the loser may have little to no hope of making the actual playoffs.

MOTW
6. Fe-brees (Jon) vs. 10. Fournetteflix &Chill (Biggie)
Biggie may be ranked 10, but he's actually scored more points on the season than his opponent. Biggie will need a win to prevent getting the 7th loss that should all but eliminate him. Jon's barely hanging onto the last playoff spot as he loses tiebreaking scenarios to almost every other team in the league. He'll need to keep winning to hold the teams below him at bay.
QB: Chicago has actually been a formidable defense at home so Stafford may have a hard time putting up points this week. Assuming Biggie uses Alex Smith, who has looked like a legitimate MVP candidate, he should win this matchup handily. Edge: Biggie
WR: Biggie's WRs are barely WR2s or WR3s on their own team, which doesn't bode well for their potential in fantasy. Meanwhile, Jon has 2 clear-cut WR1s on high powered offenses. Edge: Jon
RB: The strongest position of Biggie's team is clearly where Jon's team struggles. Lamar Miller and Doug Martin are great backs, but due to their team offenses struggling at the moment, they don't get many chances to run and when they do, they don't get to see much daylight. Fournette and Ingram should continue their individual marches to 1,000 yard seasons. Edge: Biggie
TE: Both of them suck but one sucks less. Brate has 143 yards and no scores... in the last 4 weeks. Cook at least plays with a competent QB and has gotten 5+ targets in every game but 1. Let's hope the volume pays off. Edge: Jon
K/DEF: Nothing in particular to note other than the fact that Biggie should pick up the Titans' kicker for consistency. Assuming this wild assumption will hold true, I'll take Jon because Pitt > Tenn. Edge: Jon

Winner: Jon
Jon's dominance in the WR category should be enough to make up the difference from the RB spot. I don't see either team breaking 100 points so Jon won't make much headway in his tiebreaker pursuit but he should be able to hold off the teams beneath him for at least 1 more week.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Rest of Season Predictions

Sorry this post is late. Had 2 back to back 70+ hour weeks so in my free time, I opted to spend it with my wife instead of writing in this blog. It was a tough choice.

Anyways, these predictions might not be as interesting with only 4 weeks left but here goes:

1) David K. will get the second bye

With Simon's team struggling (RIP Watson, Zeke's legal battles, Jordy missing his homeboy Aaron), David just needs to make up 1.5 games (point differential counting as the half game) over 4 weeks. With Simon facing a much tougher end of year schedule than David, it seems likely that David will make it to Week 15 this year.

2) Eric will make the playoffs and advance

While his place in the standings still doesn't represent his team's actual abilities, he's now on the verge of making it in. With a schedule that pits him against 4 of the worst teams in the league based on their scoring ability (none of the 4 opponents average more than 82 points a game), he should be able to reel off 4 straight, or at least capture 3 of 4 with a high PF to capture a playoff spot.

3) Mike and Jon don't make the playoffs

If Eric is making the playoffs, at least one of the teams above him has to fall. Luckily for Eric, both will. They both play brutal schedules, each only playing 1 "easy" opponent, and if it comes down to a tiebreaker, they're going to be in major trouble.

4) Dan, Biggie, and Jung end with the same record, but...

Jung ends up the odd man out in the playoffs due to the PF tiebreaker. 

5) Paul wins the consolation bracket

It seems like the consolation bracket is where Paul shines. We should let him go 0-13 every year just so he can dominate the competition for the gift card.

6) Week 13 will have multiple matchups that may be featured in MOTW

Let's look at the games:

1) Simon and Biggie play in what could decide Biggie's playoff fate and could be a preview for the same matchup the following week

2) Jung and Dan could be directly battling for the last playoff spot

3) Eric and Jon could be playing for a spot if Jon can continue his lucky streak OR Jon could just be playing spoiler

4) David K. and Paul could decide Paul's fate if he can roll off 3 straight victories prior to Week 13

Final predicted standings and current playoff preview:

1) Cho

2) David K.

3) Simon K.

4) Eric

5) Dan

6) Biggie

Wildcard:

Biggie over Simon K.

Eric over Dan

Semi-Finals:

David K. over Biggie

Cho over Eric

Finals:

Cho over David K.

MOTWs will be coming back next week as we analyze key games that will decide the playoff race.

BONUS:

I'll continue to update this as this season has been one of the most shuffled leader boards when comparing the PF vs. W-L. These standings paint a better picture of performance than W-L but in the end, all that matters for the playoffs is W-L.

Week 4                  Week 6                    Week 9
1. Cho (0) 1. Cho (0)               1. Cho (0)
2. Simon (0) 2. Simon (+1)         2. Simon (0)
3. David K. (+3) 3. David K. (+1)    3. Eric (+4)
4. Jung (-1) 4. Dan (+1)            4. David K. (-1)
5. Eric (+4) 5. Eric (+4)            5. Dan (-1)
6. Dan (+1) 6. Jung (0)              6. Jung (+2)
7. Biggie (+1) 7. Paul (+3)            7. Paul (+3)
8. Jon (-4) 8. Biggie (-1)          8. Biggie (+1)
9. Paul (+1)         9. Jon (-7)               9. Mike (-4)
10. Mike (-5) 10. David Y. (+1)   10. Jon (-4)
11. David Y. (0) 11. Mike (-3)          11. David Y. (+1)
12. Alex (0) 12. Alex (0)            12. Alex (-1)

Good luck to all!

Regards,

Simon Kim