I'm still reeling from getting pounded in the butt by Eric's 136 point outing (which I probably would have no chance of winning even if I had Zeke and Jordy). It's pretty hard for me to even open up the fantasy site today but I gotta keep the fans happy.
Instead of the standard MOTW, I'll break down the reason why each team is a championship contender. And then I'll turn right around and poke holes in each team's chances.
1. Jacked Up! (Cho)
Hope: Can you find a weakness in this team? With the trade rape to get Matt Ryan and picking up Rodgers, he shored up his weakest spot. TE might be his Achilles heel but that's just nitpicking. Additionally, the Jaguars get 2 terrible offenses in the next 2 weeks which they should feast on.
Despair: Rodgers is trying to return from an injury to his throwing shoulder. Are we sure he'll be able to be 100% in his first week? Additionally, his RB2 spot is shakier than ever. McCoy might be hurt, Kamara regressed terribly (thank God for that bye), and Coleman is streaky with Freeman as the lead back. Hopkins has to face 2 tough defenses in the Jaguars and Steelers. While I still believe that Cho has the best chance to win, it won't be a walk in the park.
2. mike&mike (David K.)
Hope: Just making the playoffs should be a win for David but he wants more. The addition of Josh Gordon was huge after he traded for Kelce, keeping his WR corp as one of the most formidable in the league. Hunt looks like he's returning to form, Gordon has 2 matchups that should allow him to rack up yards, and Denver gets a terrible Indy O-line to rack up double digit points in Week 15.
Despair: The QB spot is still his shakiest spot. Keenum should be an upgrade from Mariota but other than the opportunity for double points to Thielen, I don't believe he'll be a QB1. Evans has been unplayable, making his WR3 spot in flux at the moment. And can we believe in the resurgence of Hunt after one game?
5. Dinkin Flicka (Dan)
Hope: For Dan's sake, I hope this is the year he finally wins. And he's finally got a team that he should be very confident in. Wilson has been on fire as he always is in the second half of the year, His 2 RBs are workhorses that seem to get their points whether their teams are winning or losing, and he's got a plethora of WRs that may not be sexy to have, but perform on Sundays.
Despair: The loss of Wentz should hurt Ertz a ton, especially as he now has to compete with Burton for targets. And while he as a bunch of WRs, none of them have risen up as the cream of the crop and on any given Sunday, I could see a dud coming from any of them. Jordan Howard's averages are great but his streakiness is definitely a worry. If he happens to deviate to the Jekyll version for one week, Dan's quest for the ship may fall short again.
6. Dont Stop BellLeveon
Hope: When you get Le'veon and Gronk, I don't think you're worrying about much. That's arguably the best RB and best TE in the league. When you can beat any team at 2 positions, you always have a chance. Additionally, as I saw last week, this team has great explosive potential. Jamaal Williams is coming into his own and Fitz and Watkins are a solid source of double-digit point potential.
Despair: Losing Wentz hurts. A lot. Dropping from Wentz to Garoppolo is like downgrading 2 players. Also, even if Eric can win this week, Jimmy has to face a tough Jaguars defense in week 16. Williams also tussles with 2 tough defenses so his explosiveness may be tempered. With Amari Cooper being MIA, he'll have to hope to find a gem for his WR3 spot.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, December 14, 2017
Thursday, December 7, 2017
Playoffs!
I must start with the fact that I have no idea what's going on with the font. Please excuse this horrendous black border surrounding everything.
Welcome to the playoffs! We'll start with the final analysis of the PF rankings that we've been tracking all season:
Week 4 Week 6 Week 9 Week 13
1. Cho (0) 1. Cho (0) 1. Cho (0) 1. Cho (0)
2. Simon (0) 2. Simon (+1) 2. Simon (0) 2. Simon (+1)
3. David K. (+3) 3. David K. (+1) 3. Eric (+4) 3. David K. (-1)
4. Jung (-1) 4. Dan (+1) 4. David K. (-1) 4. Dan (+1)
5. Eric (+4) 5. Eric (+4) 5. Dan (-1) 5. Eric (+1)
6. Dan (+1) 6. Jung (0) 6. Jung (+2) 6. Paul (+4)
7. Biggie (+1) 7. Paul (+3) 7. Paul (+3) 7. Biggie (+1)
8. Jon (-4) 8. Biggie (-1) 8. Biggie (+1) 8. Jon (-1)
9. Paul (+1) 9. Jon (-7) 9. Mike (-4) 9. David Y. (+2)
10. Mike (-5) 10. David Y. (+1) 10. Jon (-4) 10. Jung (-1)
11. David Y. (0) 11. Mike (-3) 11. David Y. (+1) 11. Mike (-7)
12. Alex (0) 12. Alex (0) 12. Alex (-1) 12. Alex (0)
Most of the league has nothing to complain about as they got the position they deserve. Except for Paul. He should have snuck into the playoffs but a few tough losses coupled with Mike's ridiculous lucky streak have left him on the outside looking in. Look at all the people Mike has pushed down in the rankings: Dan, Eric, Paul, Biggie, David Y. It's unbelievable. He outperformed his PF ranking by 7 spots and is playing for the grand prize instead of the gift card. At this point, I'm kind of rooting for him to win the whole thing.
In the meantime, here are some playoff predictions (in parenthesis are the predictions from the beginning of the year and their current seed in the playoffs):
Winner: Cho, 1 (Jon, N/A)
Not really a pick that's going to wow anybody but when you lock up a first round bye, have 4 of the top 13 running backs over the past 4 weeks, trade raped to get a solid WR2 and QB (and has a top 3 QB possibly returning from injury), own one of the league's best defenses that has one of the softest schedules, and a potential second round matchup against one of the least deserving teams to ever make the playoffs, how am I supposed to pick against you?
Runner-up: David K., 2 (Eric, 6)
2 for 2 with these out of nowhere picks. But hey, I call it like I see it. In his first appearance in the playoffs, he's guaranteed himself a 75% chance at some money. While Hunt has been disappointing in the second half of the season, people don't want to face that Gordon/Hunt backfield that has the potential for a 20+ game at any given moment. Thielen has come out of nowhere to be a top 10 WR over the last 4 weeks AND on the season (and unofficially became the best white WR at the moment, although this has really only been a 2 horse race between Jordy and Edelman up to now) and the addition of Josh Gordon was a very saavy move, assuming Josh can keep himself away from the devil's lettuce. His QB spot is still a little shaky but it shouldn't hold him back from being profitable in the league this year.
Dark-Horse: Eric, 6 (David K., 2)
A few things have changed that took Eric from being one of the favorites to relegating him to a dark horse but don't let his seed fool you, Eric deserves to be here. He got here on the back of his 3 stars (Wentz, Bell, Gronk) and he'll continue to lean on them as long as they'll carry him. He'll need to take some risks with filling out the rest of his roster but don't expect him to go down without a fight.
If you're in the consolation bracket, don't forget that you're playing for a gift card. This year it will be a $25 gift card to a location of your choice (from a selected list)! Make sure you keep on fighting until week 16!
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Welcome to the playoffs! We'll start with the final analysis of the PF rankings that we've been tracking all season:
Week 4 Week 6 Week 9 Week 13
1. Cho (0) 1. Cho (0) 1. Cho (0) 1. Cho (0)
2. Simon (0) 2. Simon (+1) 2. Simon (0) 2. Simon (+1)
3. David K. (+3) 3. David K. (+1) 3. Eric (+4) 3. David K. (-1)
4. Jung (-1) 4. Dan (+1) 4. David K. (-1) 4. Dan (+1)
5. Eric (+4) 5. Eric (+4) 5. Dan (-1) 5. Eric (+1)
6. Dan (+1) 6. Jung (0) 6. Jung (+2) 6. Paul (+4)
7. Biggie (+1) 7. Paul (+3) 7. Paul (+3) 7. Biggie (+1)
8. Jon (-4) 8. Biggie (-1) 8. Biggie (+1) 8. Jon (-1)
9. Paul (+1) 9. Jon (-7) 9. Mike (-4) 9. David Y. (+2)
10. Mike (-5) 10. David Y. (+1) 10. Jon (-4) 10. Jung (-1)
11. David Y. (0) 11. Mike (-3) 11. David Y. (+1) 11. Mike (-7)
12. Alex (0) 12. Alex (0) 12. Alex (-1) 12. Alex (0)
Most of the league has nothing to complain about as they got the position they deserve. Except for Paul. He should have snuck into the playoffs but a few tough losses coupled with Mike's ridiculous lucky streak have left him on the outside looking in. Look at all the people Mike has pushed down in the rankings: Dan, Eric, Paul, Biggie, David Y. It's unbelievable. He outperformed his PF ranking by 7 spots and is playing for the grand prize instead of the gift card. At this point, I'm kind of rooting for him to win the whole thing.
In the meantime, here are some playoff predictions (in parenthesis are the predictions from the beginning of the year and their current seed in the playoffs):
Winner: Cho, 1 (Jon, N/A)
Not really a pick that's going to wow anybody but when you lock up a first round bye, have 4 of the top 13 running backs over the past 4 weeks, trade raped to get a solid WR2 and QB (and has a top 3 QB possibly returning from injury), own one of the league's best defenses that has one of the softest schedules, and a potential second round matchup against one of the least deserving teams to ever make the playoffs, how am I supposed to pick against you?
Runner-up: David K., 2 (Eric, 6)
2 for 2 with these out of nowhere picks. But hey, I call it like I see it. In his first appearance in the playoffs, he's guaranteed himself a 75% chance at some money. While Hunt has been disappointing in the second half of the season, people don't want to face that Gordon/Hunt backfield that has the potential for a 20+ game at any given moment. Thielen has come out of nowhere to be a top 10 WR over the last 4 weeks AND on the season (and unofficially became the best white WR at the moment, although this has really only been a 2 horse race between Jordy and Edelman up to now) and the addition of Josh Gordon was a very saavy move, assuming Josh can keep himself away from the devil's lettuce. His QB spot is still a little shaky but it shouldn't hold him back from being profitable in the league this year.
Dark-Horse: Eric, 6 (David K., 2)
A few things have changed that took Eric from being one of the favorites to relegating him to a dark horse but don't let his seed fool you, Eric deserves to be here. He got here on the back of his 3 stars (Wentz, Bell, Gronk) and he'll continue to lean on them as long as they'll carry him. He'll need to take some risks with filling out the rest of his roster but don't expect him to go down without a fight.
If you're in the consolation bracket, don't forget that you're playing for a gift card. This year it will be a $25 gift card to a location of your choice (from a selected list)! Make sure you keep on fighting until week 16!
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
MOTW - Week 13
Man, have the playoffs just gotten interesting. With only one week left, the first round byes are not yet secured. 3 teams at 9-3 will participate in a final, gut-wrenching week that will leave 2 people very happy and 1 person scrambling for week 14.
But the real stress is happening in the bottom half of the playoff table. 3 teams are tied at 7-5 and trying to fend off one of the best 6-6 teams we've ever seen in this league. The dream scenario has occurred which allows one of these teams, Jon, to play the one fighting for their playoff life (Eric). While Yahoo hasn't locked him in to a playoff spot, Dan is safe thanks to his high PF (unless he scores negative and everyone below him scores 200+), but Mike will need to win or score 41.3 more points than Jon to make sure he's not on the outside looking in this year. Additionally, he'll probably be rooting Jon in the MOTW.
Let's take a look at the matchup that basically makes Week 13 the wildcard weekend in our league.
MOTW
5. Fe-Brees (Jon) vs. 7. Dont Stop BellLeveon (Eric)
This one is for all the marbles and looks to be a fun one as (while projected points mean nothing in the grand scheme of things, I'll use it when it helps me paint a picture like I'm about to do right now) this matchup has the highest total projected points in the final week of the season (at the time of writing, 196.43). Jon technically has a way to back door into the playoffs with a loss by Mike but I'm sure he'd rather control his own destiny. Eric, saddled by bad luck all year, will look to wriseak havoc in the playoffs as the team that nobody wants to face with 3 legitimate stars (Wentz, Gronk, Bell).
QB: Wentz has been on fire lately and in years past, a trip to Seattle was enough to stop even top tier QBs, but with no Sherman or Kam, Wentz should continue his hot streak. Cam should keep it close as he faces a NO defense that's improved but still can be scored on (as the Redskins and Rams showed). Edge: Wentz
WR: We went over Eric's WRs last week and while they still have some big name value, they're not huge threats. Jon still has 2 great #1 options even if Julio is matched up against Xavier Rhodes and Cooks faces a largely improved Bills secondary. The WR3 weakness might be enough to allow Eric to keep this scoring battle close. Edge: Jon
RB: Last week, Eric's RBs destroyed the competition. Don't expect anything different this week. While Jon has better backs than Paul, neither look to be 20 point threats as Bell is. Edge: Eric
TE: The only TEs that can even compete with Gronk at this point are Ertz, Kelce, and Graham. The interesting factor in this matchup is whether Brady will lock in on Gronk or Cooks for his TD passes. That could end up deciding the fate of these two teams. Edge: Eric
K/DEF: Jon is riding the Pittsburgh special teams and it's not a bad group to ride. With a high-powered offense and opportunistic defense, they should put up points. Kansas City has been sliding but should get back on track against a terrible Jets team. Edge: Even
Winner: Eric
Eric gets to make the playoffs, something he deserved from Week 1 but almost didn't happen thanks to his schedule. Jon will be rooting for Alex to beat Mike to fail his way to the 6 seed.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
But the real stress is happening in the bottom half of the playoff table. 3 teams are tied at 7-5 and trying to fend off one of the best 6-6 teams we've ever seen in this league. The dream scenario has occurred which allows one of these teams, Jon, to play the one fighting for their playoff life (Eric). While Yahoo hasn't locked him in to a playoff spot, Dan is safe thanks to his high PF (unless he scores negative and everyone below him scores 200+), but Mike will need to win or score 41.3 more points than Jon to make sure he's not on the outside looking in this year. Additionally, he'll probably be rooting Jon in the MOTW.
Let's take a look at the matchup that basically makes Week 13 the wildcard weekend in our league.
MOTW
5. Fe-Brees (Jon) vs. 7. Dont Stop BellLeveon (Eric)
This one is for all the marbles and looks to be a fun one as (while projected points mean nothing in the grand scheme of things, I'll use it when it helps me paint a picture like I'm about to do right now) this matchup has the highest total projected points in the final week of the season (at the time of writing, 196.43). Jon technically has a way to back door into the playoffs with a loss by Mike but I'm sure he'd rather control his own destiny. Eric, saddled by bad luck all year, will look to wriseak havoc in the playoffs as the team that nobody wants to face with 3 legitimate stars (Wentz, Gronk, Bell).
QB: Wentz has been on fire lately and in years past, a trip to Seattle was enough to stop even top tier QBs, but with no Sherman or Kam, Wentz should continue his hot streak. Cam should keep it close as he faces a NO defense that's improved but still can be scored on (as the Redskins and Rams showed). Edge: Wentz
WR: We went over Eric's WRs last week and while they still have some big name value, they're not huge threats. Jon still has 2 great #1 options even if Julio is matched up against Xavier Rhodes and Cooks faces a largely improved Bills secondary. The WR3 weakness might be enough to allow Eric to keep this scoring battle close. Edge: Jon
RB: Last week, Eric's RBs destroyed the competition. Don't expect anything different this week. While Jon has better backs than Paul, neither look to be 20 point threats as Bell is. Edge: Eric
TE: The only TEs that can even compete with Gronk at this point are Ertz, Kelce, and Graham. The interesting factor in this matchup is whether Brady will lock in on Gronk or Cooks for his TD passes. That could end up deciding the fate of these two teams. Edge: Eric
K/DEF: Jon is riding the Pittsburgh special teams and it's not a bad group to ride. With a high-powered offense and opportunistic defense, they should put up points. Kansas City has been sliding but should get back on track against a terrible Jets team. Edge: Even
Winner: Eric
Eric gets to make the playoffs, something he deserved from Week 1 but almost didn't happen thanks to his schedule. Jon will be rooting for Alex to beat Mike to fail his way to the 6 seed.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, November 23, 2017
MOTW - Week 12 (Thanksgiving!)
Happy Thanksgiving to all! Hope you're having a great time eating turkey with your friends and family and getting to relax during this holiday season (unless you're Mike. I hope you're eating enough fried chicken to make up for the lack of turkey).
We'll take a look at a key matchup that will have major playoff implications (like every MOTW after week 10).
MOTW
7. Dont Stop BellLeveon (Eric) vs. 8. Ben There Raped That (Paul)
Paul looked like he might be out of the playoffs with his dreaded 7th loss last week as Sanu couldn't pull through on Monday night. However, if he can keep winning, make up a bit of point differential and Jon or Mike choke under pressure in the last 2 weeks, he still has a shot (albeit a long one). His first task? Take down Eric who is directly ahead of him in the standings.
QB: Wentz has been on fire lately, scoring over 20 points in every week since week 5, but is taking on a Bears defense that has been quite feisty. I'll still give him the edge over Rivers but it'll be quite close as Rivers should be in a position to score a lot of points against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Edge: Eric
WR: AJ Green should feast on the terrible Browns, with the only potential of slowing him down being the same situation. Alshon is actually a great defense against Wentz, and Keenan Allen has double point potential with Rivers. While the talent gap isn't that large (Fitz has quietly been one of the best receivers this year, top 10 in points at the position), the situation dictates a better potential day for Paul. Edge: Paul
RB: None of the other RBs are even worth mentioning in the same breath as Le'veon. Don't be surprised if he scores more than the other 3 RBs combined. Edge: Eric
TE: Gronk is easily a top 3 TE and Clay, even with Tyrod back, won't get close to his numbers. Edge: Eric
K/DEF: Philly defense came up huge for Paul last week to even make his matchup close and he'll need another big day against Trubisky to keep his hopes alive. Lutz should provide a lot of scoring in a Saints game that looks to be as exciting as their matchup with the Redskins last week. Edge: Paul
Winner: Eric
While Paul's WRs will try hard to keep this close, the stars (Le'veon, Gronk, and Wentz) are just too much for him to overcome. It will be a close matchup, within 10 points, and won't be decided until the Sunday night game but Eric will keep his playoff hopes alive while crushing Paul's.
Good luck to all and Happy Thanksgiving once again!
Simon Kim
Thursday, November 16, 2017
MOTW - Week 11
And all of my predictions go down the toilet in one week. Jon and Mike somehow keep winning (Jon thinks changing his name every week is going to do something for him) and Biggie's playoff hopes look slim (although not completely gone). Paul is climbing up the boards quickly and is only 1 game back from a playoff spot (including PF tiebreaking scenarios).
So let's focus on a matchup that is basically a playoff game as the loser may have little to no hope of making the actual playoffs.
MOTW
6. Fe-brees (Jon) vs. 10. Fournetteflix &Chill (Biggie)
Biggie may be ranked 10, but he's actually scored more points on the season than his opponent. Biggie will need a win to prevent getting the 7th loss that should all but eliminate him. Jon's barely hanging onto the last playoff spot as he loses tiebreaking scenarios to almost every other team in the league. He'll need to keep winning to hold the teams below him at bay.
QB: Chicago has actually been a formidable defense at home so Stafford may have a hard time putting up points this week. Assuming Biggie uses Alex Smith, who has looked like a legitimate MVP candidate, he should win this matchup handily. Edge: Biggie
WR: Biggie's WRs are barely WR2s or WR3s on their own team, which doesn't bode well for their potential in fantasy. Meanwhile, Jon has 2 clear-cut WR1s on high powered offenses. Edge: Jon
RB: The strongest position of Biggie's team is clearly where Jon's team struggles. Lamar Miller and Doug Martin are great backs, but due to their team offenses struggling at the moment, they don't get many chances to run and when they do, they don't get to see much daylight. Fournette and Ingram should continue their individual marches to 1,000 yard seasons. Edge: Biggie
TE: Both of them suck but one sucks less. Brate has 143 yards and no scores... in the last 4 weeks. Cook at least plays with a competent QB and has gotten 5+ targets in every game but 1. Let's hope the volume pays off. Edge: Jon
K/DEF: Nothing in particular to note other than the fact that Biggie should pick up the Titans' kicker for consistency. Assuming this wild assumption will hold true, I'll take Jon because Pitt > Tenn. Edge: Jon
Winner: Jon
Jon's dominance in the WR category should be enough to make up the difference from the RB spot. I don't see either team breaking 100 points so Jon won't make much headway in his tiebreaker pursuit but he should be able to hold off the teams beneath him for at least 1 more week.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
So let's focus on a matchup that is basically a playoff game as the loser may have little to no hope of making the actual playoffs.
MOTW
6. Fe-brees (Jon) vs. 10. Fournetteflix &Chill (Biggie)
Biggie may be ranked 10, but he's actually scored more points on the season than his opponent. Biggie will need a win to prevent getting the 7th loss that should all but eliminate him. Jon's barely hanging onto the last playoff spot as he loses tiebreaking scenarios to almost every other team in the league. He'll need to keep winning to hold the teams below him at bay.
QB: Chicago has actually been a formidable defense at home so Stafford may have a hard time putting up points this week. Assuming Biggie uses Alex Smith, who has looked like a legitimate MVP candidate, he should win this matchup handily. Edge: Biggie
WR: Biggie's WRs are barely WR2s or WR3s on their own team, which doesn't bode well for their potential in fantasy. Meanwhile, Jon has 2 clear-cut WR1s on high powered offenses. Edge: Jon
RB: The strongest position of Biggie's team is clearly where Jon's team struggles. Lamar Miller and Doug Martin are great backs, but due to their team offenses struggling at the moment, they don't get many chances to run and when they do, they don't get to see much daylight. Fournette and Ingram should continue their individual marches to 1,000 yard seasons. Edge: Biggie
TE: Both of them suck but one sucks less. Brate has 143 yards and no scores... in the last 4 weeks. Cook at least plays with a competent QB and has gotten 5+ targets in every game but 1. Let's hope the volume pays off. Edge: Jon
K/DEF: Nothing in particular to note other than the fact that Biggie should pick up the Titans' kicker for consistency. Assuming this wild assumption will hold true, I'll take Jon because Pitt > Tenn. Edge: Jon
Winner: Jon
Jon's dominance in the WR category should be enough to make up the difference from the RB spot. I don't see either team breaking 100 points so Jon won't make much headway in his tiebreaker pursuit but he should be able to hold off the teams beneath him for at least 1 more week.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, November 9, 2017
Rest of Season Predictions
Sorry this post is late. Had 2 back to back 70+ hour weeks so in my free time, I opted to spend it with my wife instead of writing in this blog. It was a tough choice.
BONUS:
I'll continue to update this as this season has been one of the most shuffled leader boards when comparing the PF vs. W-L. These standings paint a better picture of performance than W-L but in the end, all that matters for the playoffs is W-L.
Week 4 Week 6 Week 9
1. Cho (0) 1. Cho (0) 1. Cho (0)
2. Simon (0) 2. Simon (+1) 2. Simon (0)
3. David K. (+3) 3. David K. (+1) 3. Eric (+4)
4. Jung (-1) 4. Dan (+1) 4. David K. (-1)
5. Eric (+4) 5. Eric (+4) 5. Dan (-1)
6. Dan (+1) 6. Jung (0) 6. Jung (+2)
7. Biggie (+1) 7. Paul (+3) 7. Paul (+3)
8. Jon (-4) 8. Biggie (-1) 8. Biggie (+1)
9. Paul (+1) 9. Jon (-7) 9. Mike (-4)
10. Mike (-5) 10. David Y. (+1) 10. Jon (-4)
11. David Y. (0) 11. Mike (-3) 11. David Y. (+1)
12. Alex (0) 12. Alex (0) 12. Alex (-1)
Anyways, these predictions might not be as interesting with only 4 weeks left but here goes:
1) David K. will get the second bye
With Simon's team struggling (RIP Watson, Zeke's legal battles, Jordy missing his homeboy Aaron), David just needs to make up 1.5 games (point differential counting as the half game) over 4 weeks. With Simon facing a much tougher end of year schedule than David, it seems likely that David will make it to Week 15 this year.
2) Eric will make the playoffs and advance
While his place in the standings still doesn't represent his team's actual abilities, he's now on the verge of making it in. With a schedule that pits him against 4 of the worst teams in the league based on their scoring ability (none of the 4 opponents average more than 82 points a game), he should be able to reel off 4 straight, or at least capture 3 of 4 with a high PF to capture a playoff spot.
3) Mike and Jon don't make the playoffs
If Eric is making the playoffs, at least one of the teams above him has to fall. Luckily for Eric, both will. They both play brutal schedules, each only playing 1 "easy" opponent, and if it comes down to a tiebreaker, they're going to be in major trouble.
4) Dan, Biggie, and Jung end with the same record, but...
Jung ends up the odd man out in the playoffs due to the PF tiebreaker.
5) Paul wins the consolation bracket
It seems like the consolation bracket is where Paul shines. We should let him go 0-13 every year just so he can dominate the competition for the gift card.
6) Week 13 will have multiple matchups that may be featured in MOTW
Let's look at the games:
1) Simon and Biggie play in what could decide Biggie's playoff fate and could be a preview for the same matchup the following week
2) Jung and Dan could be directly battling for the last playoff spot
3) Eric and Jon could be playing for a spot if Jon can continue his lucky streak OR Jon could just be playing spoiler
4) David K. and Paul could decide Paul's fate if he can roll off 3 straight victories prior to Week 13
Final predicted standings and current playoff preview:
1) Cho
2) David K.
3) Simon K.
4) Eric
5) Dan
6) Biggie
Wildcard:
Biggie over Simon K.
Eric over Dan
Semi-Finals:
David K. over Biggie
Cho over Eric
Finals:
Cho over David K.
MOTWs will be coming back next week as we analyze key games that will decide the playoff race.
BONUS:
I'll continue to update this as this season has been one of the most shuffled leader boards when comparing the PF vs. W-L. These standings paint a better picture of performance than W-L but in the end, all that matters for the playoffs is W-L.
Week 4 Week 6 Week 9
1. Cho (0) 1. Cho (0) 1. Cho (0)
2. Simon (0) 2. Simon (+1) 2. Simon (0)
3. David K. (+3) 3. David K. (+1) 3. Eric (+4)
4. Jung (-1) 4. Dan (+1) 4. David K. (-1)
5. Eric (+4) 5. Eric (+4) 5. Dan (-1)
6. Dan (+1) 6. Jung (0) 6. Jung (+2)
7. Biggie (+1) 7. Paul (+3) 7. Paul (+3)
8. Jon (-4) 8. Biggie (-1) 8. Biggie (+1)
9. Paul (+1) 9. Jon (-7) 9. Mike (-4)
10. Mike (-5) 10. David Y. (+1) 10. Jon (-4)
11. David Y. (0) 11. Mike (-3) 11. David Y. (+1)
12. Alex (0) 12. Alex (0) 12. Alex (-1)
Good luck to all!
Regards,
Simon Kim
Thursday, October 19, 2017
No MOTW this week
There wasn't a juicy matchup this week, with the closest being a 2. Jon vs. 6. Jung. Instead, we'll wait for a juggernaut matchup of 1. Cho vs. 2. Jon next week.
(For those of you that have figured out that I just ran out of time this week, keep it to yourself.)
But in the meantime, let's take a look at the updated standings based on the points each team has scored:
Week 4 Week 6
1. Cho (0) 1. Cho (0)
2. Simon (0) 2. Simon (+1)
3. David K. (+3) 3. David K. (+1)
4. Jung (-1) 4. Dan (+1)
5. Eric (+4) 5. Eric (+4)
6. Dan (+1) 6. Jung (0)
7. Biggie (+1) 7. Paul (+3)
8. Jon (-4) 8. Biggie (-1)
9. Paul (+1) 9. Jon (-7)
10. Mike (-5) 10. David Y. (+1)
11. David Y. (0) 11. Mike (-3)
12. Alex (0) 12. Alex (0)
A couple of notes:
1) David K. has normalized his position from last time, having slightly less to complain about than before.
2) Paul has improved his scoring in the last two weeks but his actual position has remained unchanged.
3) Eric continues to get pummeled in the actual rankings while performing as a playoff team.
4) Who is the beneficiary of all these people suffering? Jon Lee. He is currently in position to get a bye when he shouldn't be getting a bye in the consolation playoffs.
5) The injuries have finally caught up to Mike as he continues to slide and his inability to score is being reflected in his team's record as well.
6) Cho and Alex have held constant throughout holding the top and bottom places, respectively.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
(For those of you that have figured out that I just ran out of time this week, keep it to yourself.)
But in the meantime, let's take a look at the updated standings based on the points each team has scored:
Week 4 Week 6
1. Cho (0) 1. Cho (0)
2. Simon (0) 2. Simon (+1)
3. David K. (+3) 3. David K. (+1)
4. Jung (-1) 4. Dan (+1)
5. Eric (+4) 5. Eric (+4)
6. Dan (+1) 6. Jung (0)
7. Biggie (+1) 7. Paul (+3)
8. Jon (-4) 8. Biggie (-1)
9. Paul (+1) 9. Jon (-7)
10. Mike (-5) 10. David Y. (+1)
11. David Y. (0) 11. Mike (-3)
12. Alex (0) 12. Alex (0)
A couple of notes:
1) David K. has normalized his position from last time, having slightly less to complain about than before.
2) Paul has improved his scoring in the last two weeks but his actual position has remained unchanged.
3) Eric continues to get pummeled in the actual rankings while performing as a playoff team.
4) Who is the beneficiary of all these people suffering? Jon Lee. He is currently in position to get a bye when he shouldn't be getting a bye in the consolation playoffs.
5) The injuries have finally caught up to Mike as he continues to slide and his inability to score is being reflected in his team's record as well.
6) Cho and Alex have held constant throughout holding the top and bottom places, respectively.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, October 12, 2017
MOTW - Week 6
We're getting near the mid-point of the season and there are still 2 teams without a win. This is a big week for both teams (David Y. and Alex) as 6 losses usually is the tipping point for playoff bound teams. It would take an incredible run to make the playoffs for either of them, but it's better to start now than to start next week.
But the MOTW was meant for teams in interesting matchups and neither of theirs is juicy this week. So instead, we'll look at two teams that are trying to stay away from dropping to .500, and most likely out of the playoff race (temporarily).
MOTW
3. mike & mike (David K.) vs. 5. Dinkin Flicka (Daniel Park)
Both teams are 3-2 this year and are trying to step on the other to gain some ground on the first round bye. This is about as big as a MOTW gets at this point in the year, as a win lands them in prime playoff position and a 2 game lead over the loser, while a loss drops them into a morass of teams clawing for a playoff spot
QB: Both teams have struggled to find consistency from the QB spot but losing Wilson for the bye will be huge. Siemian has played well but the NYG secondary is tough to throw on. Additionally, with the Giants having 0 NFL-caliber receivers, Denver's strategy should be to get a lead and run the ball to death. Edge: David
WR: David's team's strength, Dan's team's weakness. Next question. Edge: David
RB: Dan has stayed relevant thanks to his RBs but he may have found a foe that can match his backfield in terms of talent and potential. Freeman should look great off a bye week but Hunt hasn't scored under 10 points this season. Gordon and Howard both have big game potential which makes this a wash. Edge: Draw
TE: The true strength of Dan's team has been the TE spot. After Gronk, he has the 2 best TEs in the league. Either one he plays should outperform Henry. Edge: Dan
K/DEF: Both kickers should get tons of opportunities against teams that look to get scored on again and again. Anyone against Miami this season seems to be a good play but let's look at the NYG @ DEN game: 1) Von Miller, 2) NYG disastrous O-line, 3) No OBJ or Marshall on NYG, 4) No real RB in the NYG backfield, 5) Eli against teams that are not NE in the Superbowl, 6) Denver at home, 7) NYG having to travel 2,500 miles and playing a mile above sea level after a devastating loss to the Chargers. Are the Broncos putting up a 20+ point performance? I think so. Edge: Dan
Winner: David K.
While his special teams and TE should outperform David, the gap in WRs and the wash at RB should lead David K. to a victory. Siemian and the Broncos defense will make it interesting on Sunday night but the gap will be too large to overcome.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
But the MOTW was meant for teams in interesting matchups and neither of theirs is juicy this week. So instead, we'll look at two teams that are trying to stay away from dropping to .500, and most likely out of the playoff race (temporarily).
MOTW
3. mike & mike (David K.) vs. 5. Dinkin Flicka (Daniel Park)
Both teams are 3-2 this year and are trying to step on the other to gain some ground on the first round bye. This is about as big as a MOTW gets at this point in the year, as a win lands them in prime playoff position and a 2 game lead over the loser, while a loss drops them into a morass of teams clawing for a playoff spot
QB: Both teams have struggled to find consistency from the QB spot but losing Wilson for the bye will be huge. Siemian has played well but the NYG secondary is tough to throw on. Additionally, with the Giants having 0 NFL-caliber receivers, Denver's strategy should be to get a lead and run the ball to death. Edge: David
WR: David's team's strength, Dan's team's weakness. Next question. Edge: David
RB: Dan has stayed relevant thanks to his RBs but he may have found a foe that can match his backfield in terms of talent and potential. Freeman should look great off a bye week but Hunt hasn't scored under 10 points this season. Gordon and Howard both have big game potential which makes this a wash. Edge: Draw
TE: The true strength of Dan's team has been the TE spot. After Gronk, he has the 2 best TEs in the league. Either one he plays should outperform Henry. Edge: Dan
K/DEF: Both kickers should get tons of opportunities against teams that look to get scored on again and again. Anyone against Miami this season seems to be a good play but let's look at the NYG @ DEN game: 1) Von Miller, 2) NYG disastrous O-line, 3) No OBJ or Marshall on NYG, 4) No real RB in the NYG backfield, 5) Eli against teams that are not NE in the Superbowl, 6) Denver at home, 7) NYG having to travel 2,500 miles and playing a mile above sea level after a devastating loss to the Chargers. Are the Broncos putting up a 20+ point performance? I think so. Edge: Dan
Winner: David K.
While his special teams and TE should outperform David, the gap in WRs and the wash at RB should lead David K. to a victory. Siemian and the Broncos defense will make it interesting on Sunday night but the gap will be too large to overcome.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
Wednesday Waiver Wire Frenzy
Publishing early this week! I got some time during lunch to work and since I'm flying from the west coast tomorrow, I will not have time to post before my travels.
While there are 2 decent matchups that could feature in the MOTW this week (1. Cho vs. 5. Mike, 2. Simon vs. 6. David K.), I decided to focus on the waiver wire transactions that occurred overnight and how they might impact the teams down the line.
Additionally, we'll look at how some teams are doing at this point in the season. We are 4 weeks in, which is only 25% of the NFL season but almost 33% of fantasy. At this point, usually the cream rises to the top and the crap sinks. But we've had some intriguing variance.
Waiver Wire
1. Will Fuller
Won by: David K.
Waiver used: 1
Disappointed teams: 5
Impact: In his first game back, Fuller looked like he was perfectly in sync with Watson, hooking up for 2 TDs. While his yardage totals were suppressed, he should get a steady stream of targets opposite Nuk. The only problem with this pickup is that David had more pressing needs. He already has Hogan, Crowder, Thielen crowding the WR3 spot so why did he pick up another one? Sure he can use it as trade bait, but should he have improved his QB position? You should never pass on great talent who will also have great opportunity, but we'll see if this move pans out for David in the end.
Grade: B+
2. Latavius Murray
Won by: Mike
Waiver used: 3
Disappointed teams: 6
Impact: Easily the most coveted back this week, Mike got a player that should get 20+ touches in a conservative offense that might still win games thanks to its solid defense. Mike is still trying to get over the loss of David Johnson and while Latavius is not in the same stratosphere when it comes to talent, the volume he will get should help soften the blow. It's a great pick up in terms of fit and outlook for the season.
Grade: A
3. DeShaun Watson
Won by: Simon
Waiver used: 3
Disappointed teams: 3
Impact: The only QB to be requested on the waiver wire, DeShaun Watson showed his ceiling last week when he accounted for 5 TDs. Simon had just lost his backup QB in Carr for at least 3 weeks, so the timing couldn't have been better. But with a dicey RB2 and WR3 position, should he have used his waiver on Lacy or Jones? With Tom Brady as a must-start every week, Simon may have just wasted his relatively high waiver position on a guy he'll use for 1 week.
Grade: B-
4. Jaron Brown
Won by: Cho
Waiver used: 3
Disappointed teams: 2
Impact: As the number one team in the league, Cho could have just sat back this week and moved up the waiver priority list. Instead, he nabbed the WR? on the Cardinals. The Cardinals have 3 WRs that serve as 1A, 1B, and 1C between the 2 Browns and Fitz. Throw in Nelson as a speedy deep threat and the situation is quite murky. While his team does need some WR depth, especially with a shaky Marvin Jones as his WR4, we'll see if Cho shouldn't have saved his waiver for a later date.
Grade: B-
5. Eddie Lacy
Won by: Biggie
Waiver used: 3
Disappointed teams: 3
Impact: If there is such thing as a steal on the waiver wire, this might have been it. With Carsons possibly out for a long period of time, Lacy has a chance to win back the job he lost. While Biggie has Fournette and Hyde entrenched in his RB spots, he will need another RB for their byes. Additionally, Hyde has been Jekyll at time with his injuries, so some insurance can't hurt.
Grade: A-
6. Thomas Rawls
Won by: Jon
Waiver used: 3
Disappointed teams: 1
Impact: The consolation prize to the Eddie Lacy sweepstakes, Jon needed to shore up his backfield after losing Dalvin Cook (pouring one out). Rawls did perform admirably in seasons past when Marshawn was not healthy but it seems like he's still behind in the pecking order in Seattle. While Jon will get the Muscle Hamster back after his 4 week suspension, he'll need a new RB2B/RB3 after Gillislee has been nothing but disappointing after his incredible debut. Now with 6 RBs on his roster, here's to hoping one of the lottery tickets works out.
Grade: B
7. Aaron Jones
Won by: Dan
Waiver used: 3
Disappointed teams: 1
Impact: A second steal, he only falls behind on the steal chart due to the fact that TyMont may not be out for a long period of time. However, in the few snaps he played against the Bears, he looked more springy and explosive than anyone else available in the Packers backfield (and for how bad the Bears have been, they've actually looked decent against the run in competitive game situations). We'll see how many weeks Dan can use him but this could help set him up for a winning streak, even as he loses Freeman for the bye.
Grade: B+
8. Alex Collins
Won by: Eric
Waiver used: 5
Disappointed teams: 0
Impact: While he didn't have to use his waiver to get him, it might have been a safe bet as he would have been the first FA to go. Apparently he's won the starting job in Baltimore. If he can just hold onto the ball, he might be able to breathe some life into that stagnant offense.
Grade: C+
The real loser: Paul
Paul put in claims on 6 of the guys listed above and didn't win a single one. Must be disappointing.
Time to take a look at what the standings should actually look like. Here is what they should be based on the points each team has scored (the difference from their real ranking, positive numbers mean they have gotten unlucky and negative numbers means they are lucky, larger number = larger luck/unluck):
1. Cho (0)
2. Simon (0)
3. David K. (+3)
4. Jung (-1)
5. Eric (+4)
6. Dan (+1)
7. Biggie (+1)
8. Jon (-4)
9. Paul (+1)
10. Mike (-5)
11. David Y. (0)
12. Alex (0)
While the people at the top and bottom deserve to be there, the people in the middle seem like they were just randomly ordered. Mike should be nowhere close to sniffing the playoffs and even Jon shouldn't have been undefeated up until last week (coincidentally losing to Mike). Eric has the most reason to gripe as he's been scored on at a rate that would equate to playing the 3rd best team in the league every week. David K. is not far behind in the complaint line as he should be fighting for a first round bye, not a playoff spot. There's a lot of football to be played but we'll see if these early season patterns hold to produce some wacky playoff seeding or if they correct themselves and the top 6 teams really deserve to be playing for the money.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
While there are 2 decent matchups that could feature in the MOTW this week (1. Cho vs. 5. Mike, 2. Simon vs. 6. David K.), I decided to focus on the waiver wire transactions that occurred overnight and how they might impact the teams down the line.
Additionally, we'll look at how some teams are doing at this point in the season. We are 4 weeks in, which is only 25% of the NFL season but almost 33% of fantasy. At this point, usually the cream rises to the top and the crap sinks. But we've had some intriguing variance.
Waiver Wire
1. Will Fuller
Won by: David K.
Waiver used: 1
Disappointed teams: 5
Impact: In his first game back, Fuller looked like he was perfectly in sync with Watson, hooking up for 2 TDs. While his yardage totals were suppressed, he should get a steady stream of targets opposite Nuk. The only problem with this pickup is that David had more pressing needs. He already has Hogan, Crowder, Thielen crowding the WR3 spot so why did he pick up another one? Sure he can use it as trade bait, but should he have improved his QB position? You should never pass on great talent who will also have great opportunity, but we'll see if this move pans out for David in the end.
Grade: B+
2. Latavius Murray
Won by: Mike
Waiver used: 3
Disappointed teams: 6
Impact: Easily the most coveted back this week, Mike got a player that should get 20+ touches in a conservative offense that might still win games thanks to its solid defense. Mike is still trying to get over the loss of David Johnson and while Latavius is not in the same stratosphere when it comes to talent, the volume he will get should help soften the blow. It's a great pick up in terms of fit and outlook for the season.
Grade: A
3. DeShaun Watson
Won by: Simon
Waiver used: 3
Disappointed teams: 3
Impact: The only QB to be requested on the waiver wire, DeShaun Watson showed his ceiling last week when he accounted for 5 TDs. Simon had just lost his backup QB in Carr for at least 3 weeks, so the timing couldn't have been better. But with a dicey RB2 and WR3 position, should he have used his waiver on Lacy or Jones? With Tom Brady as a must-start every week, Simon may have just wasted his relatively high waiver position on a guy he'll use for 1 week.
Grade: B-
4. Jaron Brown
Won by: Cho
Waiver used: 3
Disappointed teams: 2
Impact: As the number one team in the league, Cho could have just sat back this week and moved up the waiver priority list. Instead, he nabbed the WR? on the Cardinals. The Cardinals have 3 WRs that serve as 1A, 1B, and 1C between the 2 Browns and Fitz. Throw in Nelson as a speedy deep threat and the situation is quite murky. While his team does need some WR depth, especially with a shaky Marvin Jones as his WR4, we'll see if Cho shouldn't have saved his waiver for a later date.
Grade: B-
5. Eddie Lacy
Won by: Biggie
Waiver used: 3
Disappointed teams: 3
Impact: If there is such thing as a steal on the waiver wire, this might have been it. With Carsons possibly out for a long period of time, Lacy has a chance to win back the job he lost. While Biggie has Fournette and Hyde entrenched in his RB spots, he will need another RB for their byes. Additionally, Hyde has been Jekyll at time with his injuries, so some insurance can't hurt.
Grade: A-
6. Thomas Rawls
Won by: Jon
Waiver used: 3
Disappointed teams: 1
Impact: The consolation prize to the Eddie Lacy sweepstakes, Jon needed to shore up his backfield after losing Dalvin Cook (pouring one out). Rawls did perform admirably in seasons past when Marshawn was not healthy but it seems like he's still behind in the pecking order in Seattle. While Jon will get the Muscle Hamster back after his 4 week suspension, he'll need a new RB2B/RB3 after Gillislee has been nothing but disappointing after his incredible debut. Now with 6 RBs on his roster, here's to hoping one of the lottery tickets works out.
Grade: B
7. Aaron Jones
Won by: Dan
Waiver used: 3
Disappointed teams: 1
Impact: A second steal, he only falls behind on the steal chart due to the fact that TyMont may not be out for a long period of time. However, in the few snaps he played against the Bears, he looked more springy and explosive than anyone else available in the Packers backfield (and for how bad the Bears have been, they've actually looked decent against the run in competitive game situations). We'll see how many weeks Dan can use him but this could help set him up for a winning streak, even as he loses Freeman for the bye.
Grade: B+
8. Alex Collins
Won by: Eric
Waiver used: 5
Disappointed teams: 0
Impact: While he didn't have to use his waiver to get him, it might have been a safe bet as he would have been the first FA to go. Apparently he's won the starting job in Baltimore. If he can just hold onto the ball, he might be able to breathe some life into that stagnant offense.
Grade: C+
The real loser: Paul
Paul put in claims on 6 of the guys listed above and didn't win a single one. Must be disappointing.
Time to take a look at what the standings should actually look like. Here is what they should be based on the points each team has scored (the difference from their real ranking, positive numbers mean they have gotten unlucky and negative numbers means they are lucky, larger number = larger luck/unluck):
1. Cho (0)
2. Simon (0)
3. David K. (+3)
4. Jung (-1)
5. Eric (+4)
6. Dan (+1)
7. Biggie (+1)
8. Jon (-4)
9. Paul (+1)
10. Mike (-5)
11. David Y. (0)
12. Alex (0)
While the people at the top and bottom deserve to be there, the people in the middle seem like they were just randomly ordered. Mike should be nowhere close to sniffing the playoffs and even Jon shouldn't have been undefeated up until last week (coincidentally losing to Mike). Eric has the most reason to gripe as he's been scored on at a rate that would equate to playing the 3rd best team in the league every week. David K. is not far behind in the complaint line as he should be fighting for a first round bye, not a playoff spot. There's a lot of football to be played but we'll see if these early season patterns hold to produce some wacky playoff seeding or if they correct themselves and the top 6 teams really deserve to be playing for the money.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, September 28, 2017
MOTW - Week 4
Another week, another loss for both Alex and Paul. They both sit at 0-3 and while 4 losses won't eliminate you from the playoffs, it's a large hole to climb out of, needing to go at least 7-2 in the remaining 9 weeks. So while Cho, Jon, and David K. continue to rack up wins (a combined 8-1 with the only loss coming from last week's MOTW), this week we'll be focusing on the bottom of the barrel.
MOTW
11. Ben There Raped That (Paul) vs. 12. (⌐■_■) (Alex)
Alex has been off to a terrible start with his auto-drafted team. He has yet to break 70 points in a week and his opponents have averaged almost 100 points per week against him. Paul showed signs of promised in week 2, nearing the 100 point mark, but his low has been lower than Alex, losing a 63-55 fight that made us all cringe. Who will keep their season hope's slightly more alive with a win this week?
QB: Rivers was one of the main reasons Paul had such tough sledding last week as he threw 2 picks before completing a pass to his own teammate. The Eagles defense is not a team that can be walked over and with the travel from the west coast, I don't expect the Chargers to get back to form yet. Meanwhile, Matty Ice gets a chance to bounce back from a rough showing in Detroit. Edge: Alex
WR: While Alex's group of receivers isn't terrible, they are hard to trust with some shaky QB play lately from Cousins, Siemian, and the lesser Manning. AJ and Keenan just have more talent than the receivers across from them and Alshon should have a nice day against the chargers who have a banged up secondary. Edge: Paul
RB: Who is Paul's RB2? Fat Rob? AP? Thompson? James White? It's an ugly situation for Paul while Alex has 3 legit RBs he can play based on matchups now that DeMarco is back and can even throw in an air back at Theo Riddick if he sees a shootout coming. Edge: Alex
TE: Neither TE has done much but until Luck comes back, Doyle will struggle, especially against a great LB corp in Seattle. Bennett might get more opportunities at home against a Bears team that has given up some big gains to opposing TEs. Edge: Paul
K/DEF: It's hard to bet against Justin Tucker, the best kicker in the NFL, especially in what looks to be a slug fest with end zone opportunities being rare. Neither defense offers much hope for double digit points. Edge: Alex
Winner: Alex
This will also be a close MOTW, just like last week, with Alex winning by a single digit margin. While Paul's WRs will do their best to keep it close, Alex's team that actually has some talent from top to bottom will finally click to get Alex his first W.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
MOTW
11. Ben There Raped That (Paul) vs. 12. (⌐■_■) (Alex)
Alex has been off to a terrible start with his auto-drafted team. He has yet to break 70 points in a week and his opponents have averaged almost 100 points per week against him. Paul showed signs of promised in week 2, nearing the 100 point mark, but his low has been lower than Alex, losing a 63-55 fight that made us all cringe. Who will keep their season hope's slightly more alive with a win this week?
QB: Rivers was one of the main reasons Paul had such tough sledding last week as he threw 2 picks before completing a pass to his own teammate. The Eagles defense is not a team that can be walked over and with the travel from the west coast, I don't expect the Chargers to get back to form yet. Meanwhile, Matty Ice gets a chance to bounce back from a rough showing in Detroit. Edge: Alex
WR: While Alex's group of receivers isn't terrible, they are hard to trust with some shaky QB play lately from Cousins, Siemian, and the lesser Manning. AJ and Keenan just have more talent than the receivers across from them and Alshon should have a nice day against the chargers who have a banged up secondary. Edge: Paul
RB: Who is Paul's RB2? Fat Rob? AP? Thompson? James White? It's an ugly situation for Paul while Alex has 3 legit RBs he can play based on matchups now that DeMarco is back and can even throw in an air back at Theo Riddick if he sees a shootout coming. Edge: Alex
TE: Neither TE has done much but until Luck comes back, Doyle will struggle, especially against a great LB corp in Seattle. Bennett might get more opportunities at home against a Bears team that has given up some big gains to opposing TEs. Edge: Paul
K/DEF: It's hard to bet against Justin Tucker, the best kicker in the NFL, especially in what looks to be a slug fest with end zone opportunities being rare. Neither defense offers much hope for double digit points. Edge: Alex
Winner: Alex
This will also be a close MOTW, just like last week, with Alex winning by a single digit margin. While Paul's WRs will do their best to keep it close, Alex's team that actually has some talent from top to bottom will finally click to get Alex his first W.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, September 21, 2017
MOTW - Week 3
Welcome to week 3. It's been a weird year in the NFL where the powerhouses are faltering (Seahawks, Patriots, Packers, Saints) and new contenders are emerging (Raiders, Lions). They say fantasy mirrors reality and this holds true in our league, where David Kim's team has become an overwhelming favorite in the first 2 weeks. All those years of taking my verbal abuse may finally be coming to an end. While crowning him as a champion is pre-mature, he'll have to take his feature in the MOTW as his current consolation prize.
MOTW
1. mike&mike (David K.) vs. 3. It'saHardGronkLife (Jon)
Before we even get into the MOTW, let's take a look at the two team names and award some bonus points from the get go. David has created a very fitting name for his team after acquiring Mike Evans in a trade AND created a photo-shopped avatar that matches. Jon just kept his name from last year and it doesn't even make sense as Gronk is not on his team. Edge: David
On a positive note for the Kim/Lee family, they're featured in a meaningful MOTW! Could this be a preview of an all Kim/Lee championship? We'll see. And Paul, you better pick it up if you don't want to be mocked at family events going forward.
QB: 2 running QBs match up against very different defenses. Cam gets an easy nod here as the difference between playing Seattle and New Orleans is as big as the difference between a black RB and a white RB. Edge: Jon
WR: Julio is clearly a cut above the rest of the receivers but Mike Evans and Michael Thomas aren't far behind due to their high target volumes. But Evans will be matched up against Xavier Rhodes who limited Antonio Brown to an awful fantasy day and Thomas plays on the road, where Brees is a middle of the pack QB at best. With Cooks looking to get more involved in the NE offense and Kelvin Benjamin going against a defense that's given up tons of yards and scores through the air, Jon gets the edge again. Edge: Jon
RB: Kareem Hunt has been ridiculous in his first 2 weeks. He's on pace for 40 TDs (and technically 8 fumbles lost)! Melvin Gordon has been a workhorse and had 2 great showings that should be above average against the run. While Gillislee is becoming a solid TD vulture and Cook showed flashes of stardom in his first game, they're no match for their opponents. Edge: David
TE: Not really high on either TE here but give a slight edge to Fleener. If Brees is struggling on the road, he's more likely to rely on the sure hands of his TE. Edge: Jon
K/DEF: Both defenses get terrible offenses so they should both be good for 10+ points each. Prater gets to kick in a dome in what should be a high scoring game. Edge: David
Winner: Jon
By a hair, Jon pulls this one out. Jon will amass a large lead before the afternoon games that David's RBs will try valiantly to overcome. However, they'll fall just short, in a match up that should be decided by single digits.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
MOTW
1. mike&mike (David K.) vs. 3. It'saHardGronkLife (Jon)
Before we even get into the MOTW, let's take a look at the two team names and award some bonus points from the get go. David has created a very fitting name for his team after acquiring Mike Evans in a trade AND created a photo-shopped avatar that matches. Jon just kept his name from last year and it doesn't even make sense as Gronk is not on his team. Edge: David
On a positive note for the Kim/Lee family, they're featured in a meaningful MOTW! Could this be a preview of an all Kim/Lee championship? We'll see. And Paul, you better pick it up if you don't want to be mocked at family events going forward.
QB: 2 running QBs match up against very different defenses. Cam gets an easy nod here as the difference between playing Seattle and New Orleans is as big as the difference between a black RB and a white RB. Edge: Jon
WR: Julio is clearly a cut above the rest of the receivers but Mike Evans and Michael Thomas aren't far behind due to their high target volumes. But Evans will be matched up against Xavier Rhodes who limited Antonio Brown to an awful fantasy day and Thomas plays on the road, where Brees is a middle of the pack QB at best. With Cooks looking to get more involved in the NE offense and Kelvin Benjamin going against a defense that's given up tons of yards and scores through the air, Jon gets the edge again. Edge: Jon
RB: Kareem Hunt has been ridiculous in his first 2 weeks. He's on pace for 40 TDs (and technically 8 fumbles lost)! Melvin Gordon has been a workhorse and had 2 great showings that should be above average against the run. While Gillislee is becoming a solid TD vulture and Cook showed flashes of stardom in his first game, they're no match for their opponents. Edge: David
TE: Not really high on either TE here but give a slight edge to Fleener. If Brees is struggling on the road, he's more likely to rely on the sure hands of his TE. Edge: Jon
K/DEF: Both defenses get terrible offenses so they should both be good for 10+ points each. Prater gets to kick in a dome in what should be a high scoring game. Edge: David
Winner: Jon
By a hair, Jon pulls this one out. Jon will amass a large lead before the afternoon games that David's RBs will try valiantly to overcome. However, they'll fall just short, in a match up that should be decided by single digits.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, September 14, 2017
Updated FPI
Here is the updated FPI with last year's results included. A refresher for those who may have forgotten what the FPI will follow. For those that remember, please scroll down:
So here's the basics of how the fantasy player index is measured:
1) All playoff performances are measured since I took over as commissioner of the league (2010).
2) You get points for the following things:
Playoff appearance: 1 point
3rd place: 2 points
2nd place: 3 points
1st place: 5 points
3) More recent performance is weighted more heavily than past performance. Going forward, these percentages will need to be adjusted as I plan on measuring FPI on the past 10 years of performance. For this year, the percentages are:
2016: 23%
2015: 21%
2014: 19%
2013: 16%
2012: 12%
2011: 7%
2010: 2%
(I made some adjustments to give more weight to recent championships)
4) Certain GMs have dropped out so their teams are counted as being "inherited" by other fantasy GMs. My analysis mostly focuses around Team FPIs in order to ensure enough history for each team to be statistically significant. However, I will make some pointers on interesting observations from each player's perspective.
5) A quick key to how to decode how good a fantasy team is:
>2: Dynastic. Probably cheating like the Patriots.
1.2-1.99: Playoff locks and championship threats. Think Packers or Seahawks.
0.9-1.39: Playoff contenders but need a little luck to win the whole thing. Comparable to the Cowboys, Chiefs, or Falcons.
0.4-0.89: Stepladder for above teams to make playoffs. Will they win some games? Yes. But so do the Redskins, Buccaneers, and Dolphins but they're not challenging anybody for the ship.
<0.39: Thanks for your donation to the fantasy football payout fund. We encourage you to follow the Browns or Bears this NFL season.
Green is good, Yellow is average, and Red is David K.
Changes since last year:
1) Biggie is dominating, thanks to his 3 wins in 4 years. He'll need to fail pretty spectacularly to fall in the rankings.
2) Jon is leaving his family members in the dust. He's jumped into playoff contender status after his 2nd place finish last year.
3) David Y. is starting to slide. He's already missed the playoffs 2 straight years and was predicted to be the worst this year as well. While his week 1 performance wasn't that bad, will he be able to raise his FPI with a playoff showing this year?
4) Dan keeps his playoff streak alive... and still can't win. I'm praying for you Dan.
5) A couple of veterans are struggling to stay relevant, with Mike, Cho, and Eric all missing the playoffs 2+ years in a row. We'll see who can snap out of this funk this year.
6) Alex and Jung will be competing to see who can keep their playoff streak alive this season. Both joined 2 years ago and want to prove that their first 2 years weren't beginner's (returner's for Jung?) luck.
7) I hope this is the year David K. can get rid of that 0 next to his name. I'm also praying for you.
That's all for this post. Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
So here's the basics of how the fantasy player index is measured:
1) All playoff performances are measured since I took over as commissioner of the league (2010).
2) You get points for the following things:
Playoff appearance: 1 point
3rd place: 2 points
2nd place: 3 points
1st place: 5 points
3) More recent performance is weighted more heavily than past performance. Going forward, these percentages will need to be adjusted as I plan on measuring FPI on the past 10 years of performance. For this year, the percentages are:
2016: 23%
2015: 21%
2014: 19%
2013: 16%
2012: 12%
2011: 7%
2010: 2%
(I made some adjustments to give more weight to recent championships)
4) Certain GMs have dropped out so their teams are counted as being "inherited" by other fantasy GMs. My analysis mostly focuses around Team FPIs in order to ensure enough history for each team to be statistically significant. However, I will make some pointers on interesting observations from each player's perspective.
5) A quick key to how to decode how good a fantasy team is:
>2: Dynastic. Probably cheating like the Patriots.
1.2-1.99: Playoff locks and championship threats. Think Packers or Seahawks.
0.9-1.39: Playoff contenders but need a little luck to win the whole thing. Comparable to the Cowboys, Chiefs, or Falcons.
0.4-0.89: Stepladder for above teams to make playoffs. Will they win some games? Yes. But so do the Redskins, Buccaneers, and Dolphins but they're not challenging anybody for the ship.
<0.39: Thanks for your donation to the fantasy football payout fund. We encourage you to follow the Browns or Bears this NFL season.
Green is good, Yellow is average, and Red is David K.
Changes since last year:
1) Biggie is dominating, thanks to his 3 wins in 4 years. He'll need to fail pretty spectacularly to fall in the rankings.
2) Jon is leaving his family members in the dust. He's jumped into playoff contender status after his 2nd place finish last year.
3) David Y. is starting to slide. He's already missed the playoffs 2 straight years and was predicted to be the worst this year as well. While his week 1 performance wasn't that bad, will he be able to raise his FPI with a playoff showing this year?
4) Dan keeps his playoff streak alive... and still can't win. I'm praying for you Dan.
5) A couple of veterans are struggling to stay relevant, with Mike, Cho, and Eric all missing the playoffs 2+ years in a row. We'll see who can snap out of this funk this year.
6) Alex and Jung will be competing to see who can keep their playoff streak alive this season. Both joined 2 years ago and want to prove that their first 2 years weren't beginner's (returner's for Jung?) luck.
7) I hope this is the year David K. can get rid of that 0 next to his name. I'm also praying for you.
That's all for this post. Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, September 7, 2017
2017!
Welcome to 2017!
I know it's been a while since I posted and since we've just had football in general but I'm excited for this season. Might be the first year in a while that I can do updates every week now that I no longer have school. Anyways, this first post may be short but next week, in lieu of a MOTW, I'll share the latest FPR since there really can't be a MOTW in week 1.
On to the good stuff!
Season Predictions
Winner: It'saHardGronkLife (Jon)
Although he gets some points off for not updating his name, Jon looks to be in good position to improve upon his second place performance from last year. He has 3 arguable WR1s, 3 RBs that should get plenty of work, and a QB that should bounce back from a disappointing year. All things are looking up for Jon. (This prediction was actually just your engagement gift. Congrats!)
Runner Up: Dont Stop BellLeveon (Eric)
Although his QB position might be slightly shaky, he has the #1 overall TE, the #1 overall RB, and 4 WRs that should be the #1 option on their team. That's a lot of hashtags. The above may not seem overwhelmingly favorable for a fantasy team but with Le'veon trying to prove he's worth big money, I wouldn't bet against a monster fantasy year from the RB.
Dark Horse: mike&mike (David K.)
What? After all those years of making fun of his draft strategy am I really calling him a dark horse? Can he really go from doing years of only playing until week 13 to making it to the money rounds? Behind 3 great WRs (thanks to a pre-season trade) and a fortunate injury that thrust Kareem Hunt into a starting role, David might do some damage this year. His QB spot is questionable but Mariota may just surprise us all.
Last Place: David Y Team (David Y.)
The last place is both for the creativity of his name and his predicted finish. While he has Antonio, who should make every week close, the loss of Ware, the reach on McCaffrey (is he really a #1 RB), and a shaky WR3 makes his team less than appealing. Additionally, Rudolph, while a solid contributor in real life, is never a threat to go for 15+ points in a week. Unless he makes a blockbuster trade or nabs a key free agent, David may be looking at a short season.
Week 1 starts today so good luck to all!
Simon Kim
I know it's been a while since I posted and since we've just had football in general but I'm excited for this season. Might be the first year in a while that I can do updates every week now that I no longer have school. Anyways, this first post may be short but next week, in lieu of a MOTW, I'll share the latest FPR since there really can't be a MOTW in week 1.
On to the good stuff!
Season Predictions
Winner: It'saHardGronkLife (Jon)
Although he gets some points off for not updating his name, Jon looks to be in good position to improve upon his second place performance from last year. He has 3 arguable WR1s, 3 RBs that should get plenty of work, and a QB that should bounce back from a disappointing year. All things are looking up for Jon. (This prediction was actually just your engagement gift. Congrats!)
Runner Up: Dont Stop BellLeveon (Eric)
Although his QB position might be slightly shaky, he has the #1 overall TE, the #1 overall RB, and 4 WRs that should be the #1 option on their team. That's a lot of hashtags. The above may not seem overwhelmingly favorable for a fantasy team but with Le'veon trying to prove he's worth big money, I wouldn't bet against a monster fantasy year from the RB.
Dark Horse: mike&mike (David K.)
What? After all those years of making fun of his draft strategy am I really calling him a dark horse? Can he really go from doing years of only playing until week 13 to making it to the money rounds? Behind 3 great WRs (thanks to a pre-season trade) and a fortunate injury that thrust Kareem Hunt into a starting role, David might do some damage this year. His QB spot is questionable but Mariota may just surprise us all.
Last Place: David Y Team (David Y.)
The last place is both for the creativity of his name and his predicted finish. While he has Antonio, who should make every week close, the loss of Ware, the reach on McCaffrey (is he really a #1 RB), and a shaky WR3 makes his team less than appealing. Additionally, Rudolph, while a solid contributor in real life, is never a threat to go for 15+ points in a week. Unless he makes a blockbuster trade or nabs a key free agent, David may be looking at a short season.
Week 1 starts today so good luck to all!
Simon Kim
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