So here's the basics of how the fantasy player index is measured:
1) All playoff performances are measured since I took over as commissioner of the league (2010).
2) You get points for the following things:
Playoff appearance: 1 point
3rd place: 2 points
2nd place: 3 points
1st place: 5 points
3) More recent performance is weighted more heavily than past performance. Going forward, these percentages will need to be adjusted as I plan on measuring FPI on the past 10 years of performance. For this year, the percentages are:
2015: 22.5%
2014: 21.5%
2013: 19.5%
2012: 16.5%
2011: 12.5%
2010: 7.5%
4) Certain GMs have dropped out so their teams are counted as being "inherited" by other fantasy GMs. My analysis mostly focuses around Team FPIs in order to ensure enough history for each team to be statistically significant. However, I will make some pointers on interesting observations from each player's perspective.
5) A quick key to how to decode how good a fantasy team is:
>2: Dynastic. Probably cheating like the Patriots.
1.4-1.99: Playoff locks and championship threats. Think Packers or Seahawks.
0.9-1.39: Playoff contenders but need a little luck to win the whole thing. Comparable to the Colts, Bengals, or Saints.
0.4-0.89: Stepladder for above teams to make playoffs. Will they win some games? Yes. But so do the Texans, Eagles, and Dolphins but they're not challenging anybody for the ship.
<0.39: Thanks for your donation to the fantasy football payout fund. We encourage you to follow the Browns, Titans, or Bears this NFL season.
Green is good, Yellow is average, and Red is David K.
Observations:
1) I don't know why I can't adjust the size of this chart so it doesn't bleed over the right side... But I'm too lazy to work on that.
Real Observations:
1) The top spot: As expected, the two, two-time champions rank 1 and 2 in the rankings, with Biggie taking the top spot over Eric thanks to his win last year.
2) Some families just weren't made to play fantasy football...: Jon, David K., and Paul have combined for 4 playoff appearances over 16 seasons and none of them have ever won a money match.
3) And some were: Obviously we all know that Biggie performs well in the playoffs but Nelson's .71 FPI before dropping out last season was nothing to scoff at. If he had just made the playoffs last year, he could have been in the .9-1.39 range.
4) Take care of your inheritance: Alex, Jung, and David Y. have all done a pretty good job after inheriting (or in Jung's case, re-inheriting) their fantasy teams. In the 5 combined seasons, they've made the playoffs 4 times (each making the playoffs the first year they took over the team) and placed once.
5) The return: Speaking of Jung's team, he picked up right where he left off with another playoff appearance after a 4 year hiatus. Can he take the next step to win some money and improve his FPI?
6) Small sample size: If we look at the FPI/Year, Alex looks to be the best fantasy football player ever. He'll need to build off the success of last year to keep his fantasy record free from blemishes.
7) Always the bridesmaid, never the bride: Dan has made the playoffs 5 of the 6 years (only matched by Simon), but has never won the championship. He's gotten close, playing in two championship games but never being able to overcome the final game jitters.
8) Nothing beats experience... unless you're Jon: The top 4 FPIs belong to one of the original 7 members of this league. Even Mike and Cho have a couple of money finishes to add to their resume. However, Jon has been the aberration proving that experience isn't everything.
So what does this all mean?
Technically nothing but I'll try to predict this year's winner based on their draft and past data.
Winner: Dan Park
He finally breaks his curse by making the playoffs and catching a bit of luck to embrace the trophy he desires so much. With a solid WR corp, arguably the best QB, and 2 underrated but once-star running backs, Dan has all the pieces to put up a title run. If he does, bippity boppity, give me the zoppity; dinkin' flicka.
Runner Up: Mike
An unorthodox strategy of drafting 3 WRs first has given him a killer WR corp with a TD threat (Dez), a slot receiver (Cobb), and a freak that does everything (Hopkins). With the entire Seahawks backfield, a sneaky-solid Langford, and an "eff-you-Alex" DeAngelo pick, Michael may just need some consistent QB play to sneak into the championship.
Dark Horse(s): Cho, Alex, Jon
I couldn't pick one so I'm making the case for all of them:
Cho: Also took the three WR route and mirrors Mike's team with Watkins, Cooks, and Brown, respectively. Brees should be a lock for 20+ and if one of his 4 RB2s can pan out, he could pose a real threat.
Alex: Never sleep on Le'Veon. Paired with the rapist himself, he owns the entire Steelers offense that could be explosive this year. Factor in a few solid WRs and a potential lottery ticket in Graham, Alex could build on last year's success.
Jon: Is this the year that Jon can step out from below the fantasy football poverty line? It sure looks like it with 3 solid RBs, arguably the best WR in the league, and Brady coming back from his suspension. While his TE position may be a little weak at the moment, it won't kill his chances at a ring.
That's all for this post. Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
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