I mentioned last week that this week's MOTW would be a double-header. But due to some unexpected losses last week, there really is only one matchup that is worthy of a MOTW. We'll take a rain check on the double header for now and dive right into the actual MOTW:
MOTW
1. It'saHardGronkLife (Jon) vs. 2. Just Forsett In (Mike)
Jon is off to a great start this year, having yet to lose. He's trying to distance himself and his fantasy reputation from the rest of his family. Mike may be disadvantaged on keeping up with NFL news due to living in another country, but he's been doing fine this year, with only an unexpected loss last week to Paul. Will Mike be able to rebound and move to the top tier of teams or will Jon continue to stay unbeaten?
QB: While Jon waits for Brady's return (another reason why Jon's team is scary: he's still waiting on Brady and Jamaal Charles, who could both be back in week 5) he plugs in Matt Ryan. However, Ryan faces a stingy Carolina D that is upset over their last loss against the Vikings. I say Stafford gobbles up the Bears defense to give Mike an early advantage. Edge: Mike
WR: Both these teams have deep wide receiving corps on most days. However, with both Cobb and Matthews out this week, Mike's WR3 spot gets downgraded to the possession-receiving, homeless man's Edelman. Julio should bounce back from a disappointing 1 catch week as well as Kelvin getting more targets against a softer defense. Edge: Jon
RB: Mike was riding on the legs of DeAngelo, who up to this week had been the number 3 fantasy back even with a terrible showing last week. Now he has to find a fill-in and I don't think the Seahawks backfield against a solid front 7 of the Jets is the answer. Gordon and McCoy have both been true workhorse RBs that should give Jon the lead. Edge: Jon
TE: Neither slow white TE really impresses against stingy defenses, but I'll take the one that's not facing arguably the best covering LB corp in the league (Kuechly and Davis). Edge: Mike
K/DEF: No major edges here but one thing to look for is whether the Jets will be able to shut down a slow Seahawks offense, or if Seattle was able to find their groove last week. Edge: Even
Winner: Jon
The disparity in the skill positions takes Jon to an unbelievable 4-0. With 4 wins in his pocket and 2 stars coming back, will anybody be able to stop Jon this year?
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Thursday, September 22, 2016
You guys are going to complain but..
I am posting this from my phone in Busan due to not having my computer available before the Thursday night matchup. So unfortunately there will be no MOTW this week.
The good news you can look forward to next week is that I will do a doubleheader MOTW to make up for this week. Additionally, it will give teams one more week to establish themselves as contenders or just think about next year (Sure, this is me just rationalizing my inability to post this week, but I am the commissioner/editor. Sue me. No wait, don't sue me. That's the opposite of what I meant.).
Anyways, I will see you guys (virtually... through a blog... but not even really seeing... just talking to... in one direction) next week when I am back in the states. Have a great week!
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, September 15, 2016
Week 2!
I think it's a little too early in the year to do a formal MOTW as we don't know who is actually good yet. Instead, let's just do a quick over-reaction to what happened in week 1:
Cho will run away with the league trophy:
Unstoppable WRs, a QB that's going to put up 40 a week, and sleeper RBs that are all panning out = championship. Let's just give him the money today.
The Kim brothers hold pattern...:
As expected, both Paul and David K. were not able to break 100 or win their matchup. This was more impressive(?) by Paul because his opponent only scored 82.64 points! Wait 'til next year.
But Jon is bucking the trend:
Looks like Jon wants to distance himself from the rest of his family with a 120+ week along with a victory. Maybe trusting in his players and his "gut" will pay off this year.
Alex, sneaky playoff threat:
As predicted, everything is working out for Alex again. He'll probably sneak into the playoffs, make a nice run, and lose when his kicker, who hasn't missed a kick all year, misses a 36 yard meaningless kick in a dome.
David Y. is done for the year:
The first week's blowout of the week wasn't just a blowout. It was so bad, I had to report it to the cops. No team has ever been blown out by more than 50 points and proceeded to win the league (Source: Simon's made-up stat library).
Anyways, have a great week 2, and starting next week, we'll have some MOTW's (posted from Korea!).
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Cho will run away with the league trophy:
Unstoppable WRs, a QB that's going to put up 40 a week, and sleeper RBs that are all panning out = championship. Let's just give him the money today.
The Kim brothers hold pattern...:
As expected, both Paul and David K. were not able to break 100 or win their matchup. This was more impressive(?) by Paul because his opponent only scored 82.64 points! Wait 'til next year.
But Jon is bucking the trend:
Looks like Jon wants to distance himself from the rest of his family with a 120+ week along with a victory. Maybe trusting in his players and his "gut" will pay off this year.
Alex, sneaky playoff threat:
As predicted, everything is working out for Alex again. He'll probably sneak into the playoffs, make a nice run, and lose when his kicker, who hasn't missed a kick all year, misses a 36 yard meaningless kick in a dome.
David Y. is done for the year:
The first week's blowout of the week wasn't just a blowout. It was so bad, I had to report it to the cops. No team has ever been blown out by more than 50 points and proceeded to win the league (Source: Simon's made-up stat library).
Anyways, have a great week 2, and starting next week, we'll have some MOTW's (posted from Korea!).
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, September 8, 2016
Welcome to 2016 - Introducing...
the fantasy player index (FPI)!
So here's the basics of how the fantasy player index is measured:
1) All playoff performances are measured since I took over as commissioner of the league (2010).
2) You get points for the following things:
Playoff appearance: 1 point
3rd place: 2 points
2nd place: 3 points
1st place: 5 points
3) More recent performance is weighted more heavily than past performance. Going forward, these percentages will need to be adjusted as I plan on measuring FPI on the past 10 years of performance. For this year, the percentages are:
2015: 22.5%
2014: 21.5%
2013: 19.5%
2012: 16.5%
2011: 12.5%
2010: 7.5%
4) Certain GMs have dropped out so their teams are counted as being "inherited" by other fantasy GMs. My analysis mostly focuses around Team FPIs in order to ensure enough history for each team to be statistically significant. However, I will make some pointers on interesting observations from each player's perspective.
5) A quick key to how to decode how good a fantasy team is:
>2: Dynastic. Probably cheating like the Patriots.
1.4-1.99: Playoff locks and championship threats. Think Packers or Seahawks.
0.9-1.39: Playoff contenders but need a little luck to win the whole thing. Comparable to the Colts, Bengals, or Saints.
0.4-0.89: Stepladder for above teams to make playoffs. Will they win some games? Yes. But so do the Texans, Eagles, and Dolphins but they're not challenging anybody for the ship.
<0.39: Thanks for your donation to the fantasy football payout fund. We encourage you to follow the Browns, Titans, or Bears this NFL season.
Green is good, Yellow is average, and Red is David K.
Observations:
1) I don't know why I can't adjust the size of this chart so it doesn't bleed over the right side... But I'm too lazy to work on that.
Real Observations:
1) The top spot: As expected, the two, two-time champions rank 1 and 2 in the rankings, with Biggie taking the top spot over Eric thanks to his win last year.
2) Some families just weren't made to play fantasy football...: Jon, David K., and Paul have combined for 4 playoff appearances over 16 seasons and none of them have ever won a money match.
3) And some were: Obviously we all know that Biggie performs well in the playoffs but Nelson's .71 FPI before dropping out last season was nothing to scoff at. If he had just made the playoffs last year, he could have been in the .9-1.39 range.
4) Take care of your inheritance: Alex, Jung, and David Y. have all done a pretty good job after inheriting (or in Jung's case, re-inheriting) their fantasy teams. In the 5 combined seasons, they've made the playoffs 4 times (each making the playoffs the first year they took over the team) and placed once.
5) The return: Speaking of Jung's team, he picked up right where he left off with another playoff appearance after a 4 year hiatus. Can he take the next step to win some money and improve his FPI?
6) Small sample size: If we look at the FPI/Year, Alex looks to be the best fantasy football player ever. He'll need to build off the success of last year to keep his fantasy record free from blemishes.
7) Always the bridesmaid, never the bride: Dan has made the playoffs 5 of the 6 years (only matched by Simon), but has never won the championship. He's gotten close, playing in two championship games but never being able to overcome the final game jitters.
8) Nothing beats experience... unless you're Jon: The top 4 FPIs belong to one of the original 7 members of this league. Even Mike and Cho have a couple of money finishes to add to their resume. However, Jon has been the aberration proving that experience isn't everything.
So what does this all mean?
Technically nothing but I'll try to predict this year's winner based on their draft and past data.
Winner: Dan Park
He finally breaks his curse by making the playoffs and catching a bit of luck to embrace the trophy he desires so much. With a solid WR corp, arguably the best QB, and 2 underrated but once-star running backs, Dan has all the pieces to put up a title run. If he does, bippity boppity, give me the zoppity; dinkin' flicka.
Runner Up: Mike
An unorthodox strategy of drafting 3 WRs first has given him a killer WR corp with a TD threat (Dez), a slot receiver (Cobb), and a freak that does everything (Hopkins). With the entire Seahawks backfield, a sneaky-solid Langford, and an "eff-you-Alex" DeAngelo pick, Michael may just need some consistent QB play to sneak into the championship.
Dark Horse(s): Cho, Alex, Jon
I couldn't pick one so I'm making the case for all of them:
Cho: Also took the three WR route and mirrors Mike's team with Watkins, Cooks, and Brown, respectively. Brees should be a lock for 20+ and if one of his 4 RB2s can pan out, he could pose a real threat.
Alex: Never sleep on Le'Veon. Paired with the rapist himself, he owns the entire Steelers offense that could be explosive this year. Factor in a few solid WRs and a potential lottery ticket in Graham, Alex could build on last year's success.
Jon: Is this the year that Jon can step out from below the fantasy football poverty line? It sure looks like it with 3 solid RBs, arguably the best WR in the league, and Brady coming back from his suspension. While his TE position may be a little weak at the moment, it won't kill his chances at a ring.
That's all for this post. Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
So here's the basics of how the fantasy player index is measured:
1) All playoff performances are measured since I took over as commissioner of the league (2010).
2) You get points for the following things:
Playoff appearance: 1 point
3rd place: 2 points
2nd place: 3 points
1st place: 5 points
3) More recent performance is weighted more heavily than past performance. Going forward, these percentages will need to be adjusted as I plan on measuring FPI on the past 10 years of performance. For this year, the percentages are:
2015: 22.5%
2014: 21.5%
2013: 19.5%
2012: 16.5%
2011: 12.5%
2010: 7.5%
4) Certain GMs have dropped out so their teams are counted as being "inherited" by other fantasy GMs. My analysis mostly focuses around Team FPIs in order to ensure enough history for each team to be statistically significant. However, I will make some pointers on interesting observations from each player's perspective.
5) A quick key to how to decode how good a fantasy team is:
>2: Dynastic. Probably cheating like the Patriots.
1.4-1.99: Playoff locks and championship threats. Think Packers or Seahawks.
0.9-1.39: Playoff contenders but need a little luck to win the whole thing. Comparable to the Colts, Bengals, or Saints.
0.4-0.89: Stepladder for above teams to make playoffs. Will they win some games? Yes. But so do the Texans, Eagles, and Dolphins but they're not challenging anybody for the ship.
<0.39: Thanks for your donation to the fantasy football payout fund. We encourage you to follow the Browns, Titans, or Bears this NFL season.
Green is good, Yellow is average, and Red is David K.
Observations:
1) I don't know why I can't adjust the size of this chart so it doesn't bleed over the right side... But I'm too lazy to work on that.
Real Observations:
1) The top spot: As expected, the two, two-time champions rank 1 and 2 in the rankings, with Biggie taking the top spot over Eric thanks to his win last year.
2) Some families just weren't made to play fantasy football...: Jon, David K., and Paul have combined for 4 playoff appearances over 16 seasons and none of them have ever won a money match.
3) And some were: Obviously we all know that Biggie performs well in the playoffs but Nelson's .71 FPI before dropping out last season was nothing to scoff at. If he had just made the playoffs last year, he could have been in the .9-1.39 range.
4) Take care of your inheritance: Alex, Jung, and David Y. have all done a pretty good job after inheriting (or in Jung's case, re-inheriting) their fantasy teams. In the 5 combined seasons, they've made the playoffs 4 times (each making the playoffs the first year they took over the team) and placed once.
5) The return: Speaking of Jung's team, he picked up right where he left off with another playoff appearance after a 4 year hiatus. Can he take the next step to win some money and improve his FPI?
6) Small sample size: If we look at the FPI/Year, Alex looks to be the best fantasy football player ever. He'll need to build off the success of last year to keep his fantasy record free from blemishes.
7) Always the bridesmaid, never the bride: Dan has made the playoffs 5 of the 6 years (only matched by Simon), but has never won the championship. He's gotten close, playing in two championship games but never being able to overcome the final game jitters.
8) Nothing beats experience... unless you're Jon: The top 4 FPIs belong to one of the original 7 members of this league. Even Mike and Cho have a couple of money finishes to add to their resume. However, Jon has been the aberration proving that experience isn't everything.
So what does this all mean?
Technically nothing but I'll try to predict this year's winner based on their draft and past data.
Winner: Dan Park
He finally breaks his curse by making the playoffs and catching a bit of luck to embrace the trophy he desires so much. With a solid WR corp, arguably the best QB, and 2 underrated but once-star running backs, Dan has all the pieces to put up a title run. If he does, bippity boppity, give me the zoppity; dinkin' flicka.
Runner Up: Mike
An unorthodox strategy of drafting 3 WRs first has given him a killer WR corp with a TD threat (Dez), a slot receiver (Cobb), and a freak that does everything (Hopkins). With the entire Seahawks backfield, a sneaky-solid Langford, and an "eff-you-Alex" DeAngelo pick, Michael may just need some consistent QB play to sneak into the championship.
Dark Horse(s): Cho, Alex, Jon
I couldn't pick one so I'm making the case for all of them:
Cho: Also took the three WR route and mirrors Mike's team with Watkins, Cooks, and Brown, respectively. Brees should be a lock for 20+ and if one of his 4 RB2s can pan out, he could pose a real threat.
Alex: Never sleep on Le'Veon. Paired with the rapist himself, he owns the entire Steelers offense that could be explosive this year. Factor in a few solid WRs and a potential lottery ticket in Graham, Alex could build on last year's success.
Jon: Is this the year that Jon can step out from below the fantasy football poverty line? It sure looks like it with 3 solid RBs, arguably the best WR in the league, and Brady coming back from his suspension. While his TE position may be a little weak at the moment, it won't kill his chances at a ring.
That's all for this post. Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)