Playoffs!

No intro. Let's get into the meat.

Awards:

Biggest Collapse: Cho
Cho went from 5-2 to 5-8 in a matter of 6 weeks. What looked like a cakewalk into the playoffs (needing 2 wins of 6) turned into disaster. Granted, 5 of those games were against teams that made the playoffs and they averaged over 114 ppg against him. Nonetheless, let's keep Cho in our prayers as he tries to recover from an epic collapse and the fact that David Yim swept the season series against him 2-0. On the flip side:

Biggest Comeback: Alex
He looked like a dead man after reeling off 4 straight losses going into week 9. From there, he took advantage of inferior competition (1 of 5 were playoff teams and they averaged 78 ppg during that stretch) and snuck into the playoffs as the 6 seed. 2 years in the league, 2 years in the playoffs. David Kim, start taking notes.

Saddest Season: Eric
His team under-performed to land him in the cellar. But you know what's really sad? He outscored David Yim by 12 points but ended up 3 games back in the final standings. To add insult to injury, David Yim handed him one of his 9 losses. On top of that, Paul managed to slip half a game ahead of him by recording the first tie our league has seen.

So Close...: Mike and David Yim
It sucks to see somebody ahead of you in the standings when you've outscored them on the season. It's the worst when you're in 7th and the other person is in 6th. It's worse than the worst when the other person only scored 84 in your final matchup of the year and you could only muster 80. Sorry, Mike.

For David, it all came down to 1 game. In what ended up being a pivotal week 10 matchup, David lost to Alex. Had he won, he would be in the playoffs instead of Alex.

Playoff Predictions:

Winner: Dan
Throughout the season, his team has been the most consistent. Jon team started off hot and started fading and Simon and Biggie's team rely too much on one player, Zeke and DJ respectively. Dan's ability to consistently get over 100 points (10 of 13 games this season) and have the occasional blowup game (4 games over 125) should carry him to his first coveted championship.

Runner up: Jon
Let's be real, while his team dropped 3 of his last 4 after a perfect 9-0 start, there's a ton of talent on his team. A solid backfield, 2 great QB options, and Julio Jones is a horse I wouldn't mind riding into the playoffs. Don't count him out as he has the bye week to give his players a patented Jon Lee pep talk.

Dark Horse: Alex
You're never out of it with Le'veon on your team. Along with the rapist, the Steelers should be fighting hard for the playoffs, meaning lots of points for Alex's dynamic duo. Also, after winning 5 games in a row, it seems that luck and momentum is on his side.

Consolation Bracket:

The winner of the consolation will get a $50 gift card to a major store of their choice!

In the finals, if the two contestants want to do something like Paul and David did last year (each team can only play 3 players after the other manager bans 3 players from being played), I'm okay with that as well.

Don't give up yet!

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Sorry Guys

I'm writing this from an Uber to the airport and I know I have been a terrible commissioner this year due to picking up a really demanding client. But all I know is, I was still good enough to make the playoffs so the 6 that didn't make it, I hope you have some good excuses for missing out on the party this year.

I will try to write a formal playoff preview when I get to the airport as I don't want to switch between apps on my phone to write one.

I will also come up with a prize for the consolation bracket so that you losers have something to play for.

Simon Kim

MOTW - Week 10

" " "Sorry for missing last week's MOTW. I felt special because it was my birthday week and gifted myself a break from being a commissioner. Now that it's over I will be gifting you guys two matches for this week!"
- Simon Kim"
- Eric Lee"
- This is 3 weeks old...

Sorry to everyone in the league. My new client has been killer and I do not get a chance on Thursday to get a MOTW in. However, this week, I actually got to leave the office for lunch and some testing so I am getting a chance to do some research and write a MOTW. A larger MOTW or fun analysis will be run next week, in time for the holidays, but this week features a HUGE matchup that may be a preview of Week 16.

MOTW
1. It'saHardGronkLife (Jon) vs. 2. Bippity Boppity (Dan)
Annie takes on The Office as the two heavyweights battle each other in this matchup that could clinch Jon the number 1 overall seed, or bring Dan 1 game closer to dethroning Jon from the top. While Jon got Brady back to continue his surge, the loss of Charles does kill what should have been sick backfield depth. Dan continues to to wreak havoc on the legs of established veterans, the arm of Aaron Rodgers, and the best TE in the league. Only one can win (unless you tie like Paul and I did).

QB: While Brady has been unstoppable this season, Rodgers gets a not-amazing Titans defense while Brady has to deal with arguably the best pass defense in the league. While Seattle isn't as good on the road, Sherman, Thomas, and Chancellor do not make it easy no matter where they are playing. Edge: Dan
WR: The top 2 WRs on both teams are just unbelievable. They have speed, size, hands, and end zone prowess. If it comes down to the third receiver on each team, Jon has a slight edge with Sanders playing against the Saints non-existent D. While Matthews has been solid for Mariota, he's not quite the threat Sanders will be. Edge: Jon
RB: While most weeks, Dan's RBs look impossible to match up with, this might be the week that someone stands a chance. Melvin Gordon should cancel out DeMarco, especially if Murray is not 100%. And while Blount would typically outscore West, he faces a tough defense while West gets to break out of his slump against Cleveland. Like Pennsylvania at 11PM, this one's too close to call. Edge: Even.
TE: Olsen has silently been the best TE in football. While he hasn't caught as many TDs as he normally does, he's had 7+ targets in all games but 1 and at least 50+ yards in every game but 1. I'll bet this trend doesn't go away at home with Carolina fighting to stay alive in the playoffs. Edge: Dan
K/DEF: Both players have all of their special teams occurring in one game. The only difference is that Dan's players will face each other while Jon's all comes from the same team. I don't like choosing a defense that will suffer when one of your other players scores. Therefore, I'm going with Jon as the winner here. Edge: Jon

Winner: Jon
Jon stays undefeated thanks to his slight margin at WR3 and not falling behind in backfield points. He basically earns himself the bye for the playoffs while Dan still has to fend off a few contenders.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

MOTW - Week 6

Week 6 and Jon has yet to be beat. His closest call was against David K. (really?) in a week 3 squeaker where he pulled away by 1.5 points. Jon plays 10th place Paul this week so it looks like he'll be out of the MOTW spotlight this week. We'll shift our focus on two teams that looked to be out of the playoff race early, but have the talent on their teams to sneak in and make some noise.

MOTW
8. A Team Has No Name (Eric) vs. 9. finn balor (Biggie)
Both left for dead as recently as 2 weeks ago, both have scored 115+ points in wins, keeping them alive. While they both sit looking up at the competition, there's still plenty of time to get on track. Which of these two contenders will inch closer?
QB: With famous Jameis on a bye, Biggie is going with his draft class buddy Mariota, who has done wonderful things on the ground this season. As a bonus, he gets to face a Cleveland team that's ready to move to the CFL. But Palmer should be back to lead a dangerous Cardinals offense against a shockingly inept Jets secondary. While Revis has not lived up to his namesake this season, his absence can't help the Jets. Both quarterbacks should be able to get their points. Edge: Even
WR: Talk about a group of underachievers. Alshon hasn't been able to get Hoyer's attention and Edelman has been waiting for his gay lover to come back from his suspension. I expect Alshon to pick it up against a weak Jaguars secondary and for Edelman to finally get some love after Brady couldn't stop going to Bennett last weekend. While OBJ and Cooper have been solid options (and probably the 2 best receivers in this matchup), I don't like that Eric is playing two receivers from the same team. Eventually, they will cannibalize each other. Edge: Even
RB: This is definitely the position that's been carrying Biggie so far. David Johnson has been a top 2 option every week and doesn't look to be slowing down. Even with Drew Stanton at QB, he was able to put up 30+ points. Freeman gets a tough matchup against Seattle but after what the Falcons backfield was able to do at Denver, Seattle shouldn't be a problem. Mathews is still dealing with his fumbling issues while Ingram could get lost in a shootout. Edge: Biggie
TE: If Reed plays, I'm taking him, as he is a top 3 TE in the league when healthy. But if he doesn't Biggie will have to act fast to replace him. It looks about 50/50 right now so I'll have to give the edge to the slow white guy over the fast black guy... Edge: Eric
K/DEF: Pittsburgh has played one good defensive game against the Chiefs but even then, they couldn't score double digits. While Miami is turnover prone, I can't see a huge outing. Meanwhile, Buffalo has has one bad defensive game and become more solid as the season has progressed. Expect them to take down a rusty Kaep in Buffalo. Vinatieri should get plenty of opportunities against Houston while Boswell may lose some opportunities with the Steelers deciding to go for 2 randomly. Edge: Even

Winner: Biggie
Biggie climbs another game out of the hole by riding his 2 workhorse running backs in what ends up being a really close matchup. He'll win by less than 5 points and Monday night will be tense as this matchup basically becomes Cardinals running vs. Cardinals passing.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

MOTW - Week 5 (Doubleheader!)

This football season is flying by. It's already week 5 and there still haven't been any "dominant" running backs to establish themselves to carry a team to the ship. In 4 weeks, everything has gone right for Jon and everything has gone wrong for Biggie. 4 weeks = 4 game gap. But luckily enough, there's still 9 weeks left and with bye weeks galore, the standings are guaranteed to shift.

There are 2 interesting matchups this week and we'll start with the matchup between current playoff contending teams:

MOTW 1
1. It'saHardGronkLife (Jon) vs. 6. (⌐■_■) (Alex)
With Le'Veon Bell back, Alex can really live up to his dark horse candidacy but he'll have to give Jon his first loss to establish himself as a contender and stay over .500. Jon shows no signs of slowing down after thrashing Mike on his way to the blowout of the week.
QB: The rapist looked unstoppable last week but most likely he'll regress to the mean with an average game against a decent Jets defense. But on the other side, Brady is back with a vengeance against a terrible Browns team. The disparity of points at this position may be enough to make up for any other position battle Jon loses. Edge: Jon
WR: Definitely Jon's strongest position, it's also Alex's weakest. With 2 WR1s on their respective teams and a great underneath receiver in Sanders in an offense that's improving every day, this matchup should just further the gap between Jon and Alex. Edge: Jon
RB: Bell is clearly the most dominant of these 4 backs and the other 3 all kind of hover around the average range due to mediocre teams that fall behind often and abandon the run game. Edge: Alex
TE: A matchup of two slow white guys that will face formidable defenses. I'll give Witten the slight edge against a struggling Bengals team at home over Tamme against the #1 defense in thin air. Edge: Alex
K/DEF: Ummm... Alex hasn't picked a defense but it's slim pickings out there. The Jets may struggle against a revamped Pitt offense on the road but it should be better than any of the options available in free agency. Edge: Jon

Winner: Jon
Jon stays undefeated in this matchup and moves to 5-0 and 2-3 wins from clinching a playoff spot. Alex may take a step back this week but don't sleep on his team as he has a trade in the works to improve the weak WR corp. He may lose the battle, but he's looking long term to win the war (and by the war, I mean our fantasy football league, which isn't actually a war at all...).

 MOTW 2
5. Jacked Up! (Cho) vs. 7. Just Forsett In (Mike)
Mike gets featured in a second MOTW in a row and hopes for better luck this week. He faces Cho, who is riding the back of his number 1 pick to a .500+ season. While Mike is out of playoff contention for now, he can move back in with a win this week. Both teams have key players resting on a bye so the replacements will play a huge role in this MOTW.
QB: Stafford looked good this season... until he lost to Chicago last week. And while he is back in a dome, he faces a sneaky good Philly defense which could temper his numbers a bit. But his opponent is Flacco, who hasn't gone over 30 points this season. Let's just say this positional battle won't determine this matchup. Edge: Even
WR: While Mike gets Matthews and Cobb back from a bye and his WRs are deep, there's no way I'm picking against Antonio Brown. "But he's just one guy" says the skeptic. But Antonio Brown is not a man. He's a fantasy god. Edge: Even
RB: Mike has both his Seattle RBs on a bye and Langford is struggling with an injury. So what does he do? He starts DeAngelo. In most cases, it's a terrible idea to start a backup RB. But DeAngelo is a little different. He's playing in an explosive offense and even got a goal line carry in the win last week. Alongside McKinnon, he should be able to provide enough points to counter the Hill-Crowell combo that isn't exactly a world-beater. Edge: Even
TE: While slow white TEs seem to be a theme that I really don't like this season, Rudolph has been a legitmate red zone threat. His chemistry with Bradford has developed nicely, especially since Bradford isn't really known for a downfield arm. Brate faces a tough defense that is out for revenge on 8 days of rest. Edge: Mike
K/DEF: Both defenses should be key players this week as they face turnover prone offenses and want some revenge for last week's terrible outing. Carolina gets a small edge as they face the Bucs at home on extra rest. Gano should score plenty of points to counter Walsh against a relatively porous Houston defense sans Watt. Edge: Mike

Winner: Mike
Mike bounces back this week on the backs of his special teams and wide receivers. Cho just has too many key players on bye (Brees, Cooks, Kelce, Yeldon) to compete this week, but this won't be the last we see of him in this column.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

MOTW - Week 4

I mentioned last week that this week's MOTW would be a double-header. But due to some unexpected losses last week, there really is only one matchup that is worthy of a MOTW. We'll take a rain check on the double header for now and dive right into the actual MOTW:

MOTW
1. It'saHardGronkLife (Jon) vs. 2. Just Forsett In (Mike)
Jon is off to a great start this year, having yet to lose. He's trying to distance himself and his fantasy reputation from the rest of his family. Mike may be disadvantaged on keeping up with NFL news due to living in another country, but he's been doing fine this year, with only an unexpected loss last week to Paul. Will Mike be able to rebound and move to the top tier of teams or will Jon continue to stay unbeaten?
QB: While Jon waits for Brady's return (another reason why Jon's team is scary: he's still waiting on Brady and Jamaal Charles, who could both be back in week 5) he plugs in Matt Ryan. However, Ryan faces a stingy Carolina D that is upset over their last loss against the Vikings. I say Stafford gobbles up the Bears defense to give Mike an early advantage. Edge: Mike
WR: Both these teams have deep wide receiving corps on most days. However, with both Cobb and Matthews out this week, Mike's WR3 spot gets downgraded to the possession-receiving, homeless man's Edelman. Julio should bounce back from a disappointing 1 catch week as well as Kelvin getting more targets against a softer defense. Edge: Jon
RB: Mike was riding on the legs of DeAngelo, who up to this week had been the number 3 fantasy back even with a terrible showing last week. Now he has to find a fill-in and I don't think the Seahawks backfield against a solid front 7 of the Jets is the answer. Gordon and McCoy have both been true workhorse RBs that should give Jon the lead. Edge: Jon
TE: Neither slow white TE really impresses against stingy defenses, but I'll take the one that's not facing arguably the best covering LB corp in the league (Kuechly and Davis). Edge: Mike
K/DEF: No major edges here but one thing to look for is whether the Jets will be able to shut down a slow Seahawks offense, or if Seattle was able to find their groove last week. Edge: Even

Winner: Jon
The disparity in the skill positions takes Jon to an unbelievable 4-0. With 4 wins in his pocket and 2 stars coming back, will anybody be able to stop Jon this year?

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

You guys are going to complain but..

I am posting this from my phone in Busan due to not having my computer available before the Thursday night matchup. So unfortunately there will be no MOTW this week.

The good news you can look forward to next week is that I will do a doubleheader MOTW to make up for this week. Additionally, it will give teams one more week to establish themselves as contenders or just think about next year (Sure, this is me just rationalizing my inability to post this week, but I am the commissioner/editor. Sue me. No wait, don't sue me. That's the opposite of what I meant.).

Anyways, I will see you guys (virtually... through a blog... but not even really seeing... just talking to... in one direction) next week when I am back in the states. Have a great week!

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Week 2!

I think it's a little too early in the year to do a formal MOTW as we don't know who is actually good yet. Instead, let's just do a quick over-reaction to what happened in week 1:

Cho will run away with the league trophy:
Unstoppable WRs, a QB that's going to put up 40 a week, and sleeper RBs that are all panning out = championship. Let's just give him the money today.

The Kim brothers hold pattern...:
As expected, both Paul and David K. were not able to break 100 or win their matchup. This was more impressive(?) by Paul because his opponent only scored 82.64 points! Wait 'til next year.

But Jon is bucking the trend:
Looks like Jon wants to distance himself from the rest of his family with a 120+ week along with a victory. Maybe trusting in his players and his "gut" will pay off this year.

Alex, sneaky playoff threat:
As predicted, everything is working out for Alex again. He'll probably sneak into the playoffs, make a nice run, and lose when his kicker, who hasn't missed a kick all year, misses a 36 yard meaningless kick in a dome.

David Y. is done for the year:
The first week's blowout of the week wasn't just a blowout. It was so bad, I had to report it to the cops. No team has ever been blown out by more than 50 points and proceeded to win the league (Source: Simon's made-up stat library).

Anyways, have a great week 2, and starting next week, we'll have some MOTW's (posted from Korea!).

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Welcome to 2016 - Introducing...

the fantasy player index (FPI)!

So here's the basics of how the fantasy player index is measured:
1) All playoff performances are measured since I took over as commissioner of the league (2010).

2) You get points for the following things:
Playoff appearance: 1 point
3rd place: 2 points
2nd place: 3 points
1st place: 5 points

3) More recent performance is weighted more heavily than past performance. Going forward, these percentages will need to be adjusted as I plan on measuring FPI on the past 10 years of performance. For this year, the percentages are:
2015: 22.5%
2014: 21.5%
2013: 19.5%
2012: 16.5%
2011: 12.5%
2010: 7.5%

4) Certain GMs have dropped out so their teams are counted as being "inherited" by other fantasy GMs. My analysis mostly focuses around Team FPIs in order to ensure enough history for each team to be statistically significant. However, I will make some pointers on interesting observations from each player's perspective.

5) A quick key to how to decode how good a fantasy team is:
>2: Dynastic. Probably cheating like the Patriots.
1.4-1.99: Playoff locks and championship threats. Think Packers or Seahawks.
0.9-1.39: Playoff contenders but need a little luck to win the whole thing. Comparable to the Colts, Bengals, or Saints.
0.4-0.89: Stepladder for above teams to make playoffs. Will they win some games? Yes. But so do the Texans, Eagles, and Dolphins but they're not challenging anybody for the ship.
<0.39: Thanks for your donation to the fantasy football payout fund. We encourage you to follow the Browns, Titans, or Bears this NFL season.

Green is good, Yellow is average, and Red is David K.

Observations:
1) I don't know why I can't adjust the size of this chart so it doesn't bleed over the right side... But I'm too lazy to work on that.

Real Observations:
1) The top spot: As expected, the two, two-time champions rank 1 and 2 in the rankings, with Biggie taking the top spot over Eric thanks to his win last year.
2) Some families just weren't made to play fantasy football...: Jon, David K., and Paul have combined for 4 playoff appearances over 16 seasons and none of them have ever won a money match.
3) And some were: Obviously we all know that Biggie performs well in the playoffs but Nelson's .71 FPI before dropping out last season was nothing to scoff at. If he had just made the playoffs last year, he could have been in the .9-1.39 range.
4) Take care of your inheritance: Alex, Jung, and David Y. have all done a pretty good job after inheriting (or in Jung's case, re-inheriting) their fantasy teams. In the 5 combined seasons, they've made the playoffs 4 times (each making the playoffs the first year they took over the team) and placed once.
5) The return: Speaking of Jung's team, he picked up right where he left off with another playoff appearance after a 4 year hiatus. Can he take the next step to win some money and improve his FPI?
6) Small sample size: If we look at the FPI/Year, Alex looks to be the best fantasy football player ever. He'll need to build off the success of last year to keep his fantasy record free from blemishes.
7) Always the bridesmaid, never the bride: Dan has made the playoffs 5 of the 6 years (only matched by Simon), but has never won the championship. He's gotten close, playing in two championship games but never being able to overcome the final game jitters.
8) Nothing beats experience... unless you're Jon: The top 4 FPIs belong to one of the original 7 members of this league. Even Mike and Cho have a couple of money finishes to add to their resume. However, Jon has been the aberration proving that experience isn't everything.


So what does this all mean?
Technically nothing but I'll try to predict this year's winner based on their draft and past data.

Winner: Dan Park
He finally breaks his curse by making the playoffs and catching a bit of luck to embrace the trophy he desires so much. With a solid WR corp, arguably the best QB, and 2 underrated but once-star running backs, Dan has all the pieces to put up a title run. If he does, bippity boppity, give me the zoppity; dinkin' flicka.

Runner Up: Mike
An unorthodox strategy of drafting 3 WRs first has given him a killer WR corp with a TD threat (Dez), a slot receiver (Cobb), and a freak that does everything (Hopkins). With the entire Seahawks backfield, a sneaky-solid Langford, and an "eff-you-Alex" DeAngelo pick, Michael may just need some consistent QB play to sneak into the championship.

Dark Horse(s): Cho, Alex, Jon
I couldn't pick one so I'm making the case for all of them:
Cho: Also took the three WR route and mirrors Mike's team with Watkins, Cooks, and Brown, respectively. Brees should be a lock for 20+ and if one of his 4 RB2s can pan out, he could pose a real threat.
Alex: Never sleep on Le'Veon. Paired with the rapist himself, he owns the entire Steelers offense that could be explosive this year. Factor in a few solid WRs and a potential lottery ticket in Graham, Alex could build on last year's success.
Jon: Is this the year that Jon can step out from below the fantasy football poverty line? It sure looks like it with 3 solid RBs, arguably the best WR in the league, and Brady coming back from his suspension. While his TE position may be a little weak at the moment, it won't kill his chances at a ring.

That's all for this post. Good luck to all!

Simon Kim