Make or break?

After 3 scintillating, Monday night, come-from-behind victories last week (Benjamin carrying Biggie over Mike, Parkey's leg carrying my team over Eric, and unlikely hero Jordan Matthews delivering a stunning blow to David Y.'s team) the playoff picture is murkier than ever. Other than JY who is pretty much eliminated from playoff contention, only one game separates teams ranked 3 to 11. Who will make it? Let's start with the easy ones. (Note: I'm skipping MOTW this week to mourn my first incorrect prediction of the season... thanks Jon)

Out:
11. Biggie (4-6) - Although he has an easy schedule (playing teams ranked 5,6,12), his team may have dug itself in to big of a hole to climb out of. He must win out, score massive points (2nd lowest points of potential playoff teams) and must do it without Kelvin and Big Ben in week 12. The first 2 matchups are against managers playing for their playoff lives so they won't be easy. By the time he gets the JY cupcake, his fate may have already been decided. Chance: 99%

10. Paul (4-6) - Another team that needs to win out in order to sniff a chance, Paul's team kept its hopes alive with a crazy win last week. But he still has two juggernauts standing in his way. Although Mike's team is only one spot higher than Paul's in rank, he's clearly been one of the unluckier teams in the league. If he can get past both Dan and Mike, he'll have a potential playoff matchup with Nelson in the final week but I just can't see him putting together a 4-game win streak to end the season. Chance: 90%

8. Nelson (5-5) - He'll be joining his brother looking in on the playoffs almost purely due to his inability to score. Not only does low scoring mean not winning many games, but when the standings are tight like this, every point counts for the tiebreaker. Nelson would either need to win out or get monster points if he does lose. But other than Brees and Graham, who can provide those points? The only good news is that his schedule is favorable. He gets 7,10,12 and all have not averaged more than 100 points per game this season. Chance: 75%

7. David K. (5-5) - The good news for David is that if he wins out, he might not just be in the playoffs but potentially clinching a bye. The bad news? He has to face the 2 of the 3 best scoring teams in the league to do it. He can afford to lose one and still make the playoffs but the question really is can he even win one of the two? Chance: 55%

Bubble:
5. David Y. (5-5) and 6. Jon (5-5) - Fittingly, the last matchup of the season is between Jon and David Y. and I believe the winner will make it and the loser will not. The problem for David is that he really needed that win last week to create a cushion for the upcoming weeks. If you look at his schedule, he has one of the toughest, playing 2,1,6 to end the year. He'll need at least two of those to be victories. If we generously give him a split against the top two teams in the league, it leaves him needing to beat Jon to get in. Jon on the other hand plays 1,12,5, setting him up for a much more palatable schedule to make it.
Final Verdict:
Out - David Y. (51%)
In - Jon (51%)

In:

4. Dan (5-5) - Dan's team looks well-poised for the playoffs. Luck is playing out of his mind, the backfield has been solid and the young receiving corp has played good enough to compete each week. But trouble does lie ahead. This week against Paul becomes a must-win as he must face Eric and myself in the final two weeks, the current 1st and 2nd place teams in the league. If that wasn't enough, he has to face Eric without Le'Veon Bell. Yikes. It's unfortunate that he had to play Eric and myself a combined 4 times this year but so far he's been 1-1. If he can manage a split and win a game he's supposed to, he should be playoff bound. Chance: 60%

9. Mike (4-6) - Although it seems like a stretch as he would almost certainly need to win out to make it, I don't doubt this team's talent to be able to do that. First off he's been the second unluckiest team in the league, only to Cho. Teams are scoring 107.7 points per game against him and producing a 3rd in the league 104.7 ppg just hasn't been enough. I expect that to change as he plays the Kim brothers in what should be two wins and fends off Eric to clinch his spot in the playoffs. With Jennings returning, he adds more firepower to this already potent offense. Chance: 65%

3. Cho (5-5) - With a cupcake schedule (12,11,7) and the law of averages bound to return, Cho's almost a lock for the playoffs. It doesn't hurt that he'll add another weapon in Josh Gordon to a team that's already the 2nd best at scoring in the league. Chance: 99%

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim