MOTW - Week 13 (Judgement Week)

This is just ridiculous. It's week 13, the last of the fantasy regular season and we only have one team that's clinched a playoff spot (although it would be almost impossible for Eric to lose his spot. He would have to lose to Mike while scoring very few points and Nelson, Cho, Dan Park and the winner of the Yim v. Jon matchup would all have to surpass him in points for. With Jon and Yim more than 130 points behind, I'd pretty much say Eric is a lock. But as Yim found out playing against Jordan Matthews, nothing in fantasy is certain until the games are played.). So even if we take out Eric and myself, there are 6 teams (sorry David and Biggie, your point differentials are too much to overcome even if you win and all the teams ahead of you lose) vying for 4 playoff spots. Not only that, none of the seeds have been determined yet and Eric could still lose his bye to Nelson (or in a more ridiculous scenario to Mike, Cho or Dan). With all that being said, let's check out the potential ramifications of each matchup. There won't be a full-fledged MOTW this week but all of the matchups will be diagnosed on a team by team basis.

1. I Have a Concussion (Simon) vs. 6. Leaky Spark Tube (Dan)

Who Simon is rooting for: N/A

Who Dan is rooting for: Eric

A huge game for Dan as even if he wins, he will not be guaranteed a spot. If Eric beats Mike, that will open up a sure spot as long as he himself is able to win. Otherwise, he'll have to make sure he wins AND scores enough points to keep Jon/Yim at bay. If we take a quick look at the matchup, Dan's got Luck against a struggling Redskins team, Lacy and Bell playing against teams that can definitely be run on and Simon's got some injury issues on his team. All things are looking up for Dan to continue his season past week 13.

2. Marc by MarcTrestman (Eric) vs. 4. taeyeon (Mike)

Who Eric is rooting for: Paul

Who Mike is rooting for: Simon, David K.

Most weeks, this would definitely be the MOTW due to the standings of the two teams and the playoff implications. Eric has the luxury of controlling his own destiny: win and not only do you secure the playoff berth, but you will also receive the coveted first round bye. If he can't pull off the win, he'll need some help from Paul to keep Nelson from creeping in to the top spot. Mike should make it with a win but once again, the point differential game comes into the equation. A loss by Dan or Cho would greatly increase his odds of making the playoffs, even if he falters this week against Eric. He's done an admirable job of ripping off 2 straight much-needed wins and climbing from 9th to 4th in just 2 weeks. Who actually wins the matchup? Mike does have some tasty matchups with the Eli+Odell+Jennings (aka the entire NYG team) combo against the Jags or Tate against a Bears team that is without Fuller and will be focused on stopping Calvin. But I still have to say Eric wins. There are just too many weapons (especially at WR) that can go off for 20+. Mike will need help to keep his playoff hopes alive.

3. Turn Down for Watt (Nelson) vs. 11. Ben There Raped That (Paul)

Who Nelson is rooting for: If he wins, Mike. If he loses, Eric.

Who Paul is rooting for: His fantasy basketball team as his football one is irrelevant at this point

Nelson, whom I stated as having a 75% chance of missing the playoffs, has won 4 in a row to keep himself in the playoff discussion. He's climbed from 8th to 3rd but his position is a very fragile one due to his lowest total of points scored. However, it seems like he's either really lucky or teams have a hard time scoring on him because he's got the lowest points against as well. If he loses this week, the teams below could all overtake him quite easily. Nelson will definitely have to track more than just his matchup this week as the Eric/Mike matchup plays a huge role in his ultimate playoff seeding. If Nelson wins, he'll be looking for Mike to knock off Eric so that he can earn himself a much-needed bye. If Nelson loses, he'll be looking for a win by Eric to knock off one of Nelson's potential rivals for the 3-6 seeds. Nelson's team has been decimated at the RB position but Brees and Graham are good enough to carry the team to a victory (as we witnessed last week against David Kim, eliminating him from the playoffs on the last Saints play of the game). This matchup is too close to call.

5. Jacked Up! (Cho) vs. Rice Beaters (David K.)

Who Cho is rooting for: Simon, Eric, Paul

Who David is rooting for: For Mike, Cho, an Dan to all lose and for his team to score 300+ points, clinching him a playoff spot

Cho's team finally got a break the last 4 weeks with teams regressing to the mean and scoring under 80 ppg against him. However, he was only able to go 2-2 during that stretch and puts himself in an undesirable position of playoff uncertainty. He still has a great chance, especially if he wins, but if he had pulled out a victory last week, he could have been playing for a bye, not his playoff life. Getting Josh Gordon back has made Cho's wide receiver corp the best in the league. With him, Nelson, and Bryant/DeSean, he can compete with anyone, even Eric. David K., the other man who could have rode his WRs to the playoffs, has finally benched one of his coveted WRs who has not lived up to expectations. It's been a disappointing season as David could have really made something happen had he been willing to trade one of those studs for a decent RB. Now, he just lives to play the role of spoiler. But will he succeed? I say no. Too much firepower carries Cho in an easy victory, as Ray Rice's karma brings down David to wait until next year.

7. Pass that Blount vs. 8. Gotta Catch Jamaal

Who they are both rooting for: Eric, Simon, David K.

It all comes down to this. And a win isn't a guarantee to make the playoffs. If Nelson, Mike, Cho, and Dan all win, the winner could still see himself stuck in 7th place due to both of these teams' low point total. But let's worry about external factors later. Who actually wins this matchup to keep themselves in the playoff race? My money's on David Y. Although Jon has played with a lot of heart and some saavy (Sanu, Hill), his ridiculous inability to drop Adrian Peterson will become his downfall. Had he given up on the man and maybe tried for some other free agents, he might not even be in this position. But we all know Jon. This man does not know when to let go. And when Foster and Charles are running all over his team and Rodgers gets caught in a shootout with Tom Brady at Gillette, Jon will be looking at his team that is devoid of playmakers other than Antonio Brown and wondering why Peterson is still on his team.

Final Predicted Standings:
1. Simon
2. Eric
3. Nelson
4. Cho
5. Dan
6. David Y.

Good luck to all and Happy Thanksgiving!

Simon Kim

Week 12...

Hey guys,

Sorry but there will be no post this week. I am posting this on my way to the airport and won't have time to write a formal MOTW before the Thursday night game. I was going to write it last night but an impromptu Vegas trip distracted me.

I will be back next week with a potentially special edition as there should be multiple matchups that decide the playoff race and seeding. See you then!

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Make or break?

After 3 scintillating, Monday night, come-from-behind victories last week (Benjamin carrying Biggie over Mike, Parkey's leg carrying my team over Eric, and unlikely hero Jordan Matthews delivering a stunning blow to David Y.'s team) the playoff picture is murkier than ever. Other than JY who is pretty much eliminated from playoff contention, only one game separates teams ranked 3 to 11. Who will make it? Let's start with the easy ones. (Note: I'm skipping MOTW this week to mourn my first incorrect prediction of the season... thanks Jon)

Out:
11. Biggie (4-6) - Although he has an easy schedule (playing teams ranked 5,6,12), his team may have dug itself in to big of a hole to climb out of. He must win out, score massive points (2nd lowest points of potential playoff teams) and must do it without Kelvin and Big Ben in week 12. The first 2 matchups are against managers playing for their playoff lives so they won't be easy. By the time he gets the JY cupcake, his fate may have already been decided. Chance: 99%

10. Paul (4-6) - Another team that needs to win out in order to sniff a chance, Paul's team kept its hopes alive with a crazy win last week. But he still has two juggernauts standing in his way. Although Mike's team is only one spot higher than Paul's in rank, he's clearly been one of the unluckier teams in the league. If he can get past both Dan and Mike, he'll have a potential playoff matchup with Nelson in the final week but I just can't see him putting together a 4-game win streak to end the season. Chance: 90%

8. Nelson (5-5) - He'll be joining his brother looking in on the playoffs almost purely due to his inability to score. Not only does low scoring mean not winning many games, but when the standings are tight like this, every point counts for the tiebreaker. Nelson would either need to win out or get monster points if he does lose. But other than Brees and Graham, who can provide those points? The only good news is that his schedule is favorable. He gets 7,10,12 and all have not averaged more than 100 points per game this season. Chance: 75%

7. David K. (5-5) - The good news for David is that if he wins out, he might not just be in the playoffs but potentially clinching a bye. The bad news? He has to face the 2 of the 3 best scoring teams in the league to do it. He can afford to lose one and still make the playoffs but the question really is can he even win one of the two? Chance: 55%

Bubble:
5. David Y. (5-5) and 6. Jon (5-5) - Fittingly, the last matchup of the season is between Jon and David Y. and I believe the winner will make it and the loser will not. The problem for David is that he really needed that win last week to create a cushion for the upcoming weeks. If you look at his schedule, he has one of the toughest, playing 2,1,6 to end the year. He'll need at least two of those to be victories. If we generously give him a split against the top two teams in the league, it leaves him needing to beat Jon to get in. Jon on the other hand plays 1,12,5, setting him up for a much more palatable schedule to make it.
Final Verdict:
Out - David Y. (51%)
In - Jon (51%)

In:

4. Dan (5-5) - Dan's team looks well-poised for the playoffs. Luck is playing out of his mind, the backfield has been solid and the young receiving corp has played good enough to compete each week. But trouble does lie ahead. This week against Paul becomes a must-win as he must face Eric and myself in the final two weeks, the current 1st and 2nd place teams in the league. If that wasn't enough, he has to face Eric without Le'Veon Bell. Yikes. It's unfortunate that he had to play Eric and myself a combined 4 times this year but so far he's been 1-1. If he can manage a split and win a game he's supposed to, he should be playoff bound. Chance: 60%

9. Mike (4-6) - Although it seems like a stretch as he would almost certainly need to win out to make it, I don't doubt this team's talent to be able to do that. First off he's been the second unluckiest team in the league, only to Cho. Teams are scoring 107.7 points per game against him and producing a 3rd in the league 104.7 ppg just hasn't been enough. I expect that to change as he plays the Kim brothers in what should be two wins and fends off Eric to clinch his spot in the playoffs. With Jennings returning, he adds more firepower to this already potent offense. Chance: 65%

3. Cho (5-5) - With a cupcake schedule (12,11,7) and the law of averages bound to return, Cho's almost a lock for the playoffs. It doesn't hurt that he'll add another weapon in Josh Gordon to a team that's already the 2nd best at scoring in the league. Chance: 99%

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

MOTW - Week 10

So the playoff situation is just as murky as it was a couple weeks ago. With 10 teams between 3-6 and 5-4, all the spots are still up for grabs. While it may seem like a stretch for some teams, this really becomes a make or break week for almost everyone. Even the teams at the top need to worry about a cold streak that may knock them out of the playoffs. With this in mind, we see a key matchup in this week's MOTW.

MOTW
6. Jacked Up! (Cho) vs. 4. Gotta Catch Jamaal (Jon)

Key Players on Bye:
Cho - D. Jackson, Bradshaw
Jon - Vinatieri

One team is rising as a potential juggernaut. With AP potentially able to return, Sanu emerging in Green's absence, and Antonio Brown sneakily emerging as the best 2014 fantasy receiver, Jon's team is rewarding him for not giving up through the loss of so many of his key players. Meanwhile, Cho's bad luck continues. His opponent finally scored under 100 last week but with Foles leaving the game with a broken collarbone and the Broncos defense getting trampled by Brady and company, Cho couldn't even squeeze out 80 points. With his playoff berth at stake, he tries to bounce back against an emerging power.

QB: I can't choose the Sanchize to win anything, even with all the weapons at his disposal. Ryan struggles on the road but the Bucs are so bad, he should get a few TDs in before sitting out the fourth in the blowout. Edge: Jon
WR: Jordy vs. Brown could have arguably been a competition for the best WR this season and maybe Jordy can make up some of the ground that Brown has created in the past few weeks against a putrid Bears secondary. The deciding factor of this matchup will come down to the secondary receivers, particularly, Martavius Bryant. A steal on the waiver wire, Bryant should be able to torch a horrendous Jets secondary with the red-hot Rapey throwing him the ball, edging out any of the other receivers on Jon's team AND taking some points away from Brown. Edge: Cho
RB: The Packers might arguably be the worst running defense in the league. They have yet to keep a team from amassing 100 rushing yards. Expect a huge day from Forte. But don't count out Jeremy Hill who should destroy another terrible run defense in Cleveland. With no Gio, he should pick up 20+ touches and use them wisely. Ellington's a better back but Hillman gets a much better matchup with the Raiders with the chance to pick up garbage time yards and scores. Basically what all this means is that it's too close to call. Edge: Even
TE: Witten does get the horrendous Jags team so this might be his best chance at an explosive game. Double the chances of that happening if Weeden plays and needs to throw to a sure-handed Witten instead of taking deep chances to Dez. Edge: Jon
K/DEF: It's weird that a kicker can be a huge loss to a team but Vinatieri has been the 2nd best kicker in the league this season. With Dan Bailey getting copious attempts against the Jags, Cundiff will have to try to keep up. As for the defense, I can't see the Broncos taking that last loss lightly. And who do they get to dispense their wrath on? The poor Oakland Raiders. Expect a slaughter. Edge: Cho

Winner: Jon
The bad luck continues for Cho and he slides to 4-6 and kicks into desperation mode to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, everything will look up for Jon as the AP details become clearer and potentially rejoins the team for the playoff stretch that he looks to be a part of.

MOTW Record: 10-0

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim