Week 16 - Let's Play Out the Rest of the Playoffs (probably my last post)

With Christmas next week, there's probably zero chance I post so I thought I'd try to predict both the matchups this week AND next week. Let's see how I do!

Semifinals

1. Mike vs. 5. David K.

Will Mike continue his dominance and ride it to the finals? He's got a couple of tough matchups and Thursday night will be huge as Stafford + Puka + Colby will set the stage for the mountain David will have to climb on Sunday. When I look at the teams, I actually kind of like David's matchups. Chase against a reeling Dolphins team, Coker in what should be a shootout, McBride in a game where they should have to throw a lot. But Mike's team seems too talented and assuming Stafford and Puka can solve the tough Seattle defense on Thursday, there's enough talent on this team to walk into the Finals. But in this season that's been pretty backwards (the 3 and 4 seeds fell to 5 and 6 in the first round), I'm going to say that the Rams' struggle affects Mike's team a little too much and opens the window for David K to be a new face in the championship ring of honor.

2. Eric vs. 6. Jung

Jung just barely squeaked into the playoffs but his luck hasn't run out. With Davante out, Rashee banged up and without Mahomes, Tua getting benched (and Waddle suffering due to it), and London possible not playing, he's catching Eric at the worst possible time. While Herbo should put up numbers against a vulnerable Cowboys defense that's not enough to make up for all the WR situations. On top of this, Jeanty and Etienne get incredibly hard road matchups that should limit their production. Meanwhile Bijan gets a glorious matchup and he might be in for a 40 point outing that seals Jung's path to the finals.

Finals

5. David K. vs. 6. Jung

A new champion??? Finally, one of the non-original 7 may break through and win it all. Assuming no new injuries affect the finals, let's see the pros and cons for each team.

David K: Jaxson Dart could put up a 35+ game against a reeling Raiders team and with the Giants just looking for some positivity to end the season, they may let him run wild. Chase gets a beatable Cardinals secondary and McBride should FEAST against the hapless Bengals that have nothing to play for. He doesn't really have any terrible matchups other than Coker and he'll probably have to pick up a new defense for the week.

Jung: What a slate for his WRs. DeVonta gets a beatable Bills secondary, Meyers (the new favorite target of Lawrence) gets a reeling Indy team, Jennings gets a bears defense that's not strong in the back, and Deebo gets that same Dallas defense that can't stop any passing game. His main stars Josh Allen and Bijan don't have the best matchup in terms of defense or game script but their floors are still solid. The real X-factor might be the Broncos defense playing against Gardner Minshew behind a dilapidated o-line.

Winner: Jung - the WR matchups are too good and the chances his stars still perform against tough defenses is still there. Jung's players have higher ceilings which is what I'm going to ride. Congrats to Jung!

Good luck to all and thanks for another great season!

Week 14 - Late Post...

Before I hear the complaints, Thanksgiving week I get a pass due to the holidays. But this week? No excuses. Totally slipped my mind. I was going to do a MOTWs of the key matchups that would determine the playoffs as there were 5 teams still fighting for one of the 3 spots that were left: David K, David Y, Paul, Jung, and Dan.

But now, it's Monday afternoon and most of the games have been played. So where does that leave us?

David K is a lock. He was in a win and in scenario and his matchup has no players remaining. His inclusion gives us 4 teams locked.

Paul looks like he will be in. A win would lock him in and with a 51 point lead + Saquon against Herbo, we can say with a high degree of confidence that he will be okay. No Michael Vicking here. That's 5 teams.

Dan did what he was supposed to but with Jung most likely winning (Devonta + 49 point lead vs. AJ and Ladd; I guess never say never as Jung has had Monday night nightmares before) Dan's path to the playoffs looks like it will close on him as he needed both Jung and David Y to lose to have a shot.

So 2 teams are left to fight for 1 spot and it will come down to Monday night.

Based on the current situation, Jung is the one in the playoff spot. As mentioned before, he did his job and looks like he will get the dub. The only way these standings are going to flip at all is if David Y comes from behind and beats Chris. He's staring at a 39 point deficit but he does have 2 players playing tonight: Jalen Hurts and Keenan Allen. At first glace, you might think David is out but if you game script it, 39 points isn't out of the realm of possibility. If the game becomes a semi-shootout and Jalen gets 250 passing, 2 TD, 20 rush yards and a TD on the ground, that's already 30 point. So you'd just need a little over 9 points from Keenan. Are you going to be confident that Keenan can't get 6 catches for 65 yards?

If I was a betting man, I'd still put my money on Jung to make it but I think it'll be a nailbiter on Monday for both these teams.

Regardless of who makes it though, this year's playoffs should be fun. We have 3 old guard members - Mike, Eric, Cho - at the top spots waiting for the trophy-less challengers - Paul, David K, David Y/Jung. 

Michael is hoping to add to his collection to show he's not a one time fluke winner. Eric has his sights set on becoming the first 4 time winner in our league. And Cho wants to join the 3 other teams that can claim they have won this thing 3 times.

Meanwhile, the 4-6 seeds will be looking to enter the hall of Champions. One of them will have to die in the first round but can one of them break through and be the first of the 5 expansion teams to claim a championship ring?

Good luck to all!