Wow, what an ending to the season. Cho and David K never really had a chance but Eric did his job to win, just didn't score enough points to overthrow the people in front of him. When we look at the 3 teams that were fighting for the 2 spots, Chris looked like he might be in trouble. Simon had clinched by Sunday night thanks to D-Hop's TD and Mike, on the back of Josh Allen, looked to be in great position to steal the 6 spot: he had a 9 point lead with Tee and CD going against Chase. Even if Chase exploded, the other 2 could absorb the points.... right? All game, they did a great job of going back and forth, with CD's early TD creating a pretty big buffer. But it all changed when the Bengals fumbled a punt and shortly after, Burrow hit Chase for a 40 yard TD down the sideline. Dallas and Mike had one more chance and CD did have a grab on the last drive, but it wasn't enough as Cho completed the comeback on another massive game from Chase. So as I predicted before, Chris did end up stealing a spot from a more deserving team (ended up 9th in PF).
But this is a winner's game, so this week, we will focus on the 4 teams trying to get to the money rounds. We'll take a look at each team and not necessarily look at predictions but maybe ask a probing question around their team that could affect their playoff run. We'll start with the top seed:
3. Go Go Bower Rangers (Rich)
Question 1: Can he make it through the untimely injuries?
Rich's team has been one of the most explosive all year. His receiving corp is second to none and his backfield has had enough firepower to keep up with most teams. But two injuries in the past couple of weeks has shaken up the core of his team.
First, Pickens is dealing with a hamstring injury that could last a couple of weeks. The other problem with hamstring injuries is that they have a high rate of reinjury if the player returns too early and hampers their in game performance even when they return. For Rich's team, this actually might be a blessing in disguise. With JSN's recent rise in the Seahawks depth chart, the injury may make the roster decision for Rich. He can start JJettas, Puka, and JSN without having to do deep split, weather, and matchup research.
The other injury might be a little more significant. Kenneth Walker is now dealing with a calf injury, which similar to the hamstring, has a high rate of reinjury if they come back too soon. They might play it safe and keep him out a couple weeks, especially with the way Charbonnet is running. While the Seahawks can use Charbonnet, Rich doesn't have the same level of backup available. Between Tank on a floundering Jags offense, Gus who looks like he doesn't have any more legs to give, and Patrick Taylor who might just get injured by the SF curse before the game even starts, the options are not appealing. Navigating this injury could be what makes or breaks his team. Unless....
Question 2: Will Bowers be the x-factor throughout the playoffs?
Can Brock Bowers continue at his TE1 pace? Other than Kittle and McBride, he's become a true matchup advantage at the TE position. While he is somewhat QB-proof, he'll need at least some competent QB play to extract the value he's shown so far. If AOC goes down and Ridder ends up running the offense... well, we saw how detrimental he was to London, Pitts, and Bijan in Atlanta. If AOC can stay on, expect a high number of targets and usage against favorable matchups for the entire playoff run to help Bowers be the one who that makes up any deficit from any injury related performance dips at the other positions.
4. Rajanigandha (Dan)
Question 1: What can this team rely on?
Usually when you look at a playoff team, they have their own calling cards: a matchup winner or a source of many points you can count on week in and week out. Jon's team has 2 top 6 backs and a top 3 TE. Paul has 3 WR1s and one of the only QBs that can challenge for QB1. And then you look at Dan's team and wonder 'what exactly is this team's fastball?' Gibbs is a solid RB1 and Aaron Jones has been better than expected but the latter has been fading a bit down the stretch. He has 2 fringe QB1s based on matchups. His receivers might be number 1 options on their teams but it's low quality volume in uninspiring offenses. If I'm Dan, I'm a little concerned that there's no position I can go out there and say "I'm banking on this matchup to get me through this week." It's gotten him this far but looking at his PF, there may have been some matchup luck in play.
Question 2: How does his trade affect his playoff run?
To review the trade:
Jon receives Nabers, Legette
Dan receives Meyers, BTJ
The good news for Dan is that both receivers he received in the trade are startable for his team. But the bad news is, that may be more indicative of the state of his WRs than the quality that he got back. Don't get me wrong, I think both those guys are WR2/3 that can fluctuate a bit based on matchup and which QB is throwing to them but with Minshew, Lawrence, and potentially AOC struggling with health issues, their floor and ceilings take a hit with Ridder and Maye. The one bright spot for Dan is that Legette has basically been valueless and Nabers, although he has a higher ceiling out of anyone in that trade, is dealing with this DeVito / Lock mess after the DJ fiasco. So all in all, while it looked like a bigger trade at the time, it may not make a huge difference in the outcome of Dan, and possibly Jon's, team.
5. All Gas No Drake Car CRashee (Simon)
Question 1: Is the CMC injury a blessing in disguise?
Simon waited 9 whole weeks for CMC to return and when he did... he was okay. He got the volume he needed but he didn't have the same explosiveness or nose for the end zone like he did last year. With no Trent Williams, holes were harder to find. He finally looked like himself in the Buffalo game... until he slid down with a non-contact injury. Losing the first overall draft pick is tough to recover from but for Simon's team, that might actually have been what saved him.
If CMC were still around, I can't see a scenario where he's benched. That means one of Chase Brown or Josh Jacobs (and I guess Tyrone Tracy) will be sitting on the bench each week, most likely outscoring CMC. Simon's hand has been forced to play Josh Jacobs and Chase Brown for the rest of the season and that's not a bad position to be in. The fantasy overlords may have taken the decision for him to harm his team out of his own hands.
Question 2: Who is the WR3 for this team?
Simon was adamant not to include D-Hop in trades because he truly believed he could be a solid WR2 with low WR1 upside on given weeks. But alas, nobody beats father time... or the Chiefs. The Chiefs offense has been crumbling in efficiency and D-Hop just hasn't had as much juice as he has in the past. He's a middling WR3 with a possibility of low WR2 upside. Simon's other option is Josh Downs but the Indy receiving hierarchy is a little bit muddled at the moment. Pittman is the defacto alpha but he doesn't really have the chops to be a number 1. Pierce has turned into a deep ball monster but he lacks week to week consistency. Downs plays the slot but he really should be the number one. He separates the best he's got downfield skills, and he's got burst that the other receivers don't have. But does A-Rich know that? Flacco made Downs into a WR2 but with A-Rich, it's not as clear.
While his backfield is decided, his WR3 slot could be a week-to-week guessing game that if he chooses wrong, he might end up missing out on the money.
6. #winnable (Chris)
Question 1: Who is the TE1 for the playoff run?
I still don't understand the logic of drafting Kittle and Kelce if you're not going to trade one but I guess it's worked for Chris so far. But now he might have a bigger dilemma on his hands: who is his TE through the playoffs? Granted, both should be top 6 options in a wasteland position so he's picking from two quality options, not scraping the garbage bin. Nonetheless, the one week he chooses wrong could be deadly for a team that doesn't have much cushion for mistakes against the best competition. Let's see if Chris can manage the TE position correctly through the playoffs.
Question 2: A lot of his roster is made up of not-as-big-names but true fantasy value players (Ridley - WR28 Total, Mooney - WR13 Total, Harris - RB18 Total). Can they continue to perform in win-or-go-home games?
Let's take a look specifically at the 3 I mentioned as they really are the make or break for this team. First up, Ridley. He has been super boom or bust (6 games under 7 points, 3 games over 17 points) but when he booms, he's been incredibly useful. And when I look at his schedule (Cin, Indy, Jax), I see three porous defenses that are going to be easy to score on. Expect Ridley to not only continue but potentially boom for the rest of the playoffs.
Next up is Mooney, one of the waiver wire pickups of the year. Who knew that Kirko Chainz would turn Mooney into a fantasy star? Kirk has been struggling lately but he won't stop targeting Mooney. With games against LV, NYG, Was, I see shootout or easy passing game potential. He may not necessarily find the end zone a ton but between the 20s, expect a lot of volume and a lot of points.
Lastly, Najee has quietly been useful, even as Warren has ramped up his production and Russ has the pass game cooking. However, I think this train might be coming to a stop. He's got Phi, Bal, KC, all solid run defenses that are playing for playoff seeding. The yards are going to come by tough and the Steelers may be underdogs in all these games, necessitating them to throw the ball more. Najee won't be of much use to Chris but with the backup option being ETN, Chris may just have to ride with Najee.
Good luck to all!
