Week 12 - The Perfect Draft

Going to use an excerpt from a previous post since it's the same exercise:

This week, we're going to run a little exercise that may piss everybody off. This is a team that anybody could have built to dominate the league. During the draft, I'm sure you would have gotten laughed out of the room with these picks, but 8 weeks in, you would most likely be undefeated (I didn't go week by week but I have a hard time believing this team would lose many if any weeks) and in prime position for the playoffs.

Here were the rules I gave to myself:
1) A player must have been drafted with the 12th pick of that round to be considered eligible for a round. So if a player was taken with the 11th pick in the 4th round, he would only be eligible as a 3rd round selection because the 12th team would not have been able to take him.
2) I considered performance to this point (70%) as well as potential future performance (30%) when weighing who to select (by the way, I made up those percentages). Instead of doing this purely by current rankings, I considered future outlook as well. 

I'll outline the draft with their current ranking, where they were actually drafted:

Round 1: CeeDee (WR3)/AJ (WR4)/Amon-Ra (WR6) - I really couldn't figure out which one to take. CeeDee has been the hottest when he gets hot, AJ Brown has just as high of a ceiling but lower floor, and Amon-Ra might not reach the same heights but he is way more consistent. Pick your favorite. - All drafted in the 2nd round

Round 2: Josh Allen (QB1) - 3rd round

Round 3: Keenan Allen (WR2) - 4th round

Round 4: Hockenson (TE1) - 5th round

Round 5: Kamara (RB5 PPG) - 6th round

Round 6: Mostert (RB2) - 9th round

Round 7: Brian Robinson (RB4) - 9th round

Round 8: Adam Thielen (WR11) - 11th round

Round 9: Puka (WR10) - Undrafted

Round 10: Kyren (RB3 PPG) - Undrafted

Round 11: Dallas (DEF1) - 12th round

Round 12: LaPorta (TE5) - 13th round

Round 13: Tank Dell (WR15) - 14th round

Round 14: Sam Howell (QB4) - Undrafted

Round 15: Hopkins (K1) - Undrafted

Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving!

Good luck to all!

Week 10 - MOTW

At first, I was going to write about the Chris vs. Paul matchup as the loser is most likely fully eliminated from the playoff race but:

1. I already wrote about them and I do try to limit repeats as much as I can

2. Who wants to hear about two teams that suck, one of which won't even be in the playoff race after this week?

Instead, let's focus on a bigger matchup of 2 teams. Whoever wins gets 7-3 and puts them in the driver's seat at a playoff spot and potentially a bye while the loser drops to 6-4 and has to fend off the 4 teams below him trying to steal his playoff spot.

MOTW

3. In Time (Eric) vs. 5. Let Bijans be Bijans

QB: Eric ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ David

While Lamar is most likely the best QB in this grouping, he gets the toughest defense in the NFL while Eric has Stroud, who should have to throw a lot to keep up with the Bengals. I think the tough defense will actually help Lamar's value as he'll have to throw even late in the game but Stroud should be able to match him on a point by point basis.

WR: Eric ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 David

At the time this post is being written, I don't even know who Eric's 3rd WR is going to be. Waddle is on a bye and he doesn't even have a 3rd WR on his roster. Meanwhile, David K has 3 primary options in winnable matchups. I can't see Gabe and Shaheed doing enough to win.

RB: Eric ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ David

Initially this one looked like it would tilt heavily in Eric's favor but the welcomed news of Conner's return made this a much better fight. Bijan should (assuming Arthur Smith isn't out to get him) dominate a weak Arizona defense and Conner should be heavily involved as he was one of the only weapons the Cardinals had before he went down with an injury. Etienne gets a tough front in the 49ers but Javonte gets to kick the Bills defense while they're down a few players due to injury. 

TE/K/DST: Eric ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ David

David gets the nice Andrews stack and I feel like against hard defenses, QBs look for their main options more than usual. It's tough to write about the DST as Eric still needs to pick one up but there aren't any free agents better than the Jets against Aidan. Eric draws it a little bit back to his side thanks to having Koo, who has been one of the best kickers in football, in a game where he should be called upon early and often.

Winner: David K

This is one of the more interesting MOTWs I've seen as one team is so overtly dominant at the WR matchup while the other doesn't have a clear edge anywhere (although if anything, it's probably at RB. I'll give the small edge to David K and the Lamar/Andrews stack that I think should propel him to a win.

Season MOTW Record: 2-1

Good luck to all!

Week 9 - Best Pickups for Each Team

Totally forgot to post last week's MOTW. It wasn't fully baked but it was between David K and Jung because I had a sneaky suspicion that the match was going to be closer than their rankings indicated (9 and 3 at the time). Turns out I was right and a close comeback on Monday night would have made for a great MOTW to track. Instead, we're going to go through and look at how teams have been doing outside of the draft.

The key to every season is obviously the waiver wire and free agency. Picking up and playing startable players, whether to backfill injuries, fill in during bye weeks, or to even overthrow the very players they drafted is what can separate the playoff hopefuls from the ones who flounder.

So we'll take a team by team look to see their best moves and how it's impacted their team so far.

1. Jacked Up! (Cho)

Adam Thielen - Cho was able to take Jon's mistake and pick up a WR1 on the season. It took an already good team and made it almost unbeatable.

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray - Great lotto ticket that may pay off later in the season.

2. Live Laugh Olave (Simon)

Kyren Williams - A true RB1 with a ridiculous snap and opportunity count. He's not the most explosive or fastest back out there, but anyone who gets 20+ touches in McVay's offense is a true diamond in the rough.

Honorable Mention: D'Onta Foreman - Had a week as an RB1 and has filled in admirably while Kyren has been hurt.

3. One Tyreek Hill (Jon)

Russell Wilson - With TLaw struggling, Jon needed a backup plan and Russell may actually have been more than that. On the season he's a top 12 QB while TLaw would barely be startable in 2 QB leagues.

Honorable Mention: Baltimore - The defense has been fierce and is always a threat to score double digits

4. In Time (Eric)

Chubba Hubbard - Although the Carolina offense has been disappointing, any time you can get an RB1 in an offense, especially off the waiver wire, it's a good find. Hubbard seems to have usurped Miles Sanders as the lead back.

Honorable Mention: C.J. Stroud - With Fields's injury, Stroud has been able to keep the QB position from destroying Eric's team.

5. Let Bijans be Bijans (David K)

Jerome Ford - Although he never played a snap for David K, Ford netted David Diggs. Is there anything better than returning first round value with someone you picked up for free?

Honorable Mention: Emari Demercado - After a weird blip where Ingram took over as the lead back, Demercado looks to be the man in charge while Conner is out.

6. Saticoy Steel (Dan)

Seattle - They've been a sneaky good defense and while their remaining schedule isn't great, they still may be able to pull off a few more double digit weeks.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Boyd - With Burrow looking like himself again, Boyd should have some standalone value and at the worst, act as a bye week filler.

7. David Y Team (David Y)

Sam Howell - He's the number 8 QB in total points this year and even though he gets sacked a lot and throws picks, he's not afraid to launch it. Could start some weeks over Dak.

Honorable Mention: None - David's only had 7 additions all year and most are not on the roster anymore or don't impact his team in any meaningful way.

8. it's all in the hips (Jung)

Kareem Hunt - Originally not even on an NFL roster, Hunt has carved out a role in the Browns offense and after losing Chubb, the smallest of consolation prizes for Jung.

Honorable Mention: Jared Goff - Looking for a replacement for Rodgers, Jung landed a good one in Goff, a top 10 QB so far this year

9. BEST TEAM (Mike)

Puka Nacua - Although he's slowed down quite a bit, nobody can forget the scorching start he had this year. Mike may be able to trade some of his other WRs for other positions since his team goes 5 deep at the position.

Honorable Mention: Jake Ferguson - A rookie who has already earned Dak's trust. Even if he can just play the Witten role, he'll be a top 10 TE ROS.

10. No Punts Intended (Paul)

Josh Downs - The rookie in Indy has been a revelation. The surprising Colts offense can support multiple receivers for the first time since the Andrew Luck days and Downs may even be Minshew's favored target.

Honorable Mention: Taysom Hill - Although he's just been added, New Orleans is using him in so many ways, I can see him holding top 10 value for the ROS.

11. Rich’s 삼겹살 Brock Party 🎉🥓 (Rich)

Brock Purdy - Needing to replace the useless Daniel Jones, Rich went all in on Purdy, even dedicating his team name to him. While he's struggled as of late, he's been a top 12 QB on the season.

Honorable Mention: Romeo Doubs - The Green Bay offense is a mess but Doubs has found a penchant for the end zone.

12. #winnable (Chris)

Josh Reynolds - Struggled as of late but has produced a few decent lines since being picked up. His ceiling is limited but he has a decent floor in a great offense.

Honorable Mention: Zeke? - Chris has the fewest pickups of anybody in the league (3) but Zeke may actually be playable certain weeks as he's found some new legs.

Good luck to all!