Week 14 - How Every Team Can Get In

Wow, what a crazy season. 3 teams have clinched but the remaining 9 teams are technically ALL IN THE PLAYOFF HUNT. I know last week I made fun of David Kim for being eliminated but that was premature! He can actually still make it! Let's break down how each team can make it and what they need to happen. The matchups this week actually help make this possible as there aren't really any throwaway matchups. Even the top 2 seeds are still fighting for the bye as Eric lurks to try and steal one. Let's take a look:

Should Be In

4. Big DK Energy (Paul) and 5. David Y Team (David Y)

What they need:
Win

OR lose and at least 2 losses from Rich, Jung, Simon
OR lose and at least 1 loss from Rich, Jung, Simon and have a higher PF than the lowest PF of the 2 teams that win

OR lose and have a higher PF than the 2nd lowest PF of Rich, Jung, Simon if they all win

This is the easiest duo to plan for. All they need is to win to guarantee a spot in the playoffs and even if they lose, they have multiple paths to get in. I will say though, if they lose, they better hope they lose in a high-scoring affair as there are few teams in the tier below that are right on their heels to get in. An interesting head to head in the final week of the season and would have been the MOTW if not for this lengthy article.

Playoff Hopefuls

6. Dalvin & the Chubbmunks (Rich)

What he needs:
Win and have a higher PF than 2 of Jung and Simon if they win and the loser of Paul vs. David Y
OR lose and have Jung and Simon lose and have a higher PF than any other 6-8 team

This also seems pretty likely. He already has a 60 point lead in the required PF so as long as he wins, he should most likely be in. The biggest thing will just to beat Cho's team who is suffering with byes and injuries, so should be a cakewalk (no jinx).

7. I gotta have Moore cowbell (Jung)

What he needs:

Win and Rich and Simon lose
OR win and have a higher PF than 2 of Rich and Simon if they win and the loser of Paul vs. David Y
OR lose and have Rich and Simon lose and have a higher PF than all of the 6-8 teams

So the best chance here might actually be to win and outscore the loser of Paul and David Y. Jung already has a 20ish point lead on either team and since those 2 teams play each other, one of them is bound to lose (I do not get into ties in this post because truthfully, I don't want to put that much effort into something that has <1% chance of happening).

8. Kamarameha (Simon)

What he needs:

Win and Rich and Jung lose
OR win and have a higher PF than 2 of Jung and Rich if they win and the loser of Paul vs. David Y
OR lose and have Jung and Rich lose and have a higher PF than all of the 6-8 teams

This is where we start having some longshots. Being so far back in PF, the clearest path is the first one: win and hope the 2 teams in front of him stumble.

Playoff Longshots

9. Fe-Brees (Jon)

What he needs:

Win and Rich and Jung lose (Simon loses by default in this scenario as he plays Jon) and have the highest PF amongst all 6-8 teams

So the ask is clear: win and get lucky. He needs the same situation as Simon to play out but he needs to win the matchup. On top of that, he needs to make up to 50ish points that he is currently trailing Rich by. Tough road but not impossible.

10. Jacked Up! (Cho)

What he needs:

Win and Simon and Jung lose (Rich loses by default in this scenario as he plays Cho) and have the highest PF amongst all 6-8 teams

Same situation as Jon except he needs to make up 80+ points... seems unlikely but stranger things have happened.

11. #winnable (Chris)

What he needs:

Win and Simon and Rich lose (Jung loses by default in this scenario as he plays Chris) and have the highest PF amongst all 6-8 teams

Same situation as Jon and Cho except he needs to make up 84+ points... I guess anything is possible with Mahomes? Also, see what I mean about how the matchups worked out great for this final week?

12. Football is Death (David K)

What he needs:

Win and Simon and Rich and Jung lose and have the highest PF amongst all 6-8 teams

Same situation as Jon and Cho and Chris except he needs to make up 126+ points... Like I said, technically not eliminated. But if David K gets into the playoffs with this scenario lined up, I will get a gift for everyone in the league. This would actually just be ridiculous because he needs a 200 point week and almost everyone in front of him to poo-poo the bed (like literally, less than 100 points for most teams, some needing to stay under 70 points... AND THAT'S IF HE SCORES 200).

What a great final weekend of regular season fantasy. I didn't mention the top 3 teams because they'll get an article later in the playoffs (assuming I don't forget. But maybe I forget out of spite)

Good luck to all!

Week 13 - MOTW

Wow, can you believe I'm doing back to back weeks of MOTWs? I know it's late for the Thursday deadline but I actually knew the matchup I was going to pick and realized there were no Thursday players in that matchup.

This season has been nuts. With only 2 weeks to go, nobody has secured a bye and only one team has officially been eliminated from the playoffs.

5. I gotta have Moore cowbell vs. 8. Dalvin & the Chubbmunks (Rich)

Jung is currently on the inside looking out but his place is anything but safe. he's only 12 points ahead of 7th place and he plays against a hungry team that could be more dangerous than their record shows. If Rich can beat Jung, he would guarantee that he jumps at least Jung and most likely the loser of the 7-8 matchup, meaning at the very least, he would be in the playoffs as the 6 seed. Who will stay in the hunt and who will drop out?

QB: Jung ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Rich

Most weeks, I'd pick Hurts but with Burrow facing off against Mahomes in what should be a shootout, I see lots of throws for the Cincy QB. Hurts gets a relatively tough Titans D but this Philly offense has been humming all season. Expect the typical 25-35 points.

WR: Jung ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Rich

Initially this one felt like a win for Jung. CeeDee is probably the best WR amongst the 6 for fantasy purposes, Wilson has new life with White, and Palmer has been Herbert's go to guy and Mike Williams is out again. But the advantage Rich has is that AJ Brown will negate and overtake whatever balls are given to him. Additionally, DPJ should get a nice boost with Watson back and Lockett gets to play a terrible Rams team that's basically given up on the season.

RB: Jung ◯ ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 Rich

This one is a pretty big win in one direction. Cook and Chubb are true RB1s that do not split their workload in winnable games, meaning they should get garbage time yards. Chubb gets a TERRIBLE Texans D so don't be surprised when he's the overall RB1 for the week. Aaron Jones should be solid against Chicago but he's still splitting with Dillon, and Gibson gets a tougher than they look Giants D while still splitting with Brian Robinson in a game that may be a slow slog-fest.

TE/K/DST: Jung ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Rich

This one might be a SLIGHT lean towards Jung but I don't see enough to give him the green dot. Seattle gets the aforementioned Rams but Stafford may return. Even if he doesn't, Perkins plays mistake free safe football. It won't win them games but it will prevent the defense from racking up a lot of fantasy points. Both TEs are solid but unspectacular, but that could be said about almost every TE this year. You know what, I'll give Jung the green.

Winner: Rich

Rich continues to build wins to get into the playoff picture. He was a bit unlucky in the beginning of the year and even with the highest points for, he was getting destroyed. Now, his matchup luck has normalized a bit and so his PF is helping him climb the standings when everyone is bunched up with the same record.

Good luck to all!