So.... I totally missed last week's MOTW. I was going to do Jon and Dan in what I expected to be a close matchup (more on that later) but work got crazy and my kids got sick and I had a marriage ministry retreat... but enough excuses! I'll do an extra long post with 2 parts: first we will break down the ridiculous MNF game and then get a MOTW for week 6.
Let's start by breaking down what was one of the more memorable MNF matchups as 8 teams had actual matchup implications going into the night. Usually, even if you have multiple matchups waiting on the Monday night result, only 1 or 2 can actually impact the final result or become nailbiters but this week was extraordinarily ridiculous. Let's go from least to most intense.
4. Jung vs. Paul
Jung entered the night down less than 15 points. He still had CEH, who has been freakishly effective on a low touch count, and the KC defense facing off against a potent but not-quite-living-up-to-their-potential Raiders. It wasn't quite in the bag but it definitely felt winnable.
The first big moment of the game came when CEH had a ridiculous catch on a short pass and seemed to get tackled in to the end zone. But on further review, it was 1 yard short, leading Kelce to vulture his TD (more on this later). 6.1 points down the drain.
On the ensuing Raiders drive, the KC defense finally got a huge play. Chris Jones rushed from the outside, sacked Carr, and as he was driving him to the ground, ripped the ball away from him. 3 points for Jung!... until the refs make the worst roughing the passer call since... Sunday when Grady Jarrett got a flag for... tackling Tom Brady? Anyways, there goes another 3 points AND potentially another 1 because the Raiders ended up hitting a FG on this play which took them over the scoring bracket that would cost Jung a point.
Finally, on the last TD drive, Mahomes once again found CEH on the right side for a quick screen and it looked like he might be able to make it in. But once again, he gets stopped on the 1, even as he reaches for the pylon. Another 6.1 points disappeared, just like that.
That's 15.2 points that Jung missed out on in a matchup decided by less than 10 points. Rough week for Jung but it's about to get worse for some of the other people on this list.
3. David K vs. Simon
David needed 19 points to win this matchup. It was a long shot with only a kicker left but if he could get a couple long field goals on the board early, it didn't seem out of the realm of possibility.
The game actually started out poorly for David. The Raiders scored 2 TDs in the first 16 minutes of the game so he only had 2 points to show for it. It felt like it was going to take a miracle to even have a shot. Well, somebody decided to call in a miracle.
The first 50+ yard field goal came after the Raiders are stopped at the 34 yard line facing 4th and 1. Josh Jacobs has been eating up yards like crazy at this point (also more to come on Jacobs) and in a fight against KC, you don't really want to try and win with kicks. I thought this was a clear go for it situation. Instead, they trotted out Carlson to make it a 3 possession game. 7 points in the first half? Simon wasn't quite fretting yet.
After KC scored a quick TD to make it 17-7, the Raiders were outside of FG range and facing third and long in their own territory. They were about to turn the ball over and allow KC to get the last points of the half until that BS Chris Jones play kept the drive alive. The next few plays were super conservative, getting them to the KC 32. Now usually, you add 17 yards to where the line of scrimmage is to get your FG distance: 9 for the end zone, 8 for where the holder sets up. But this one added 18 to make it a 50 yard field goal. For kickers, 49 and 50 are basically the same thing. But for our league, that's an extra point. David suddenly had 12 points going in to the half, only needing 7 to wrap this thing up.
In the second half, KC takes the lead and the Raiders are trying to stay in the game. They get a huge play from Josh Jacobs that takes them to the KC22. That means if they gain a couple yards and kick a field goal, at most, it should only count for 3 points as it will be 39 yards or under. But instead, Carr gets sacked, barely gets yards on his next 2 plays and they kick a 47 yarder. 4 more points means only 3 to win for David.
After the Raiders score the game-tying TD, McDaniels goes for 2 instead of the XP. 1 point wouldn't change the outcome of the matchup but at least there was then a chance for OT. The Chiefs got the ball back and started driving down and it looked like they might run out the clock. But their drive stalled, giving the Raiders one more chance. On a huge play (that I'll go into detail later), the Raiders don't get in to FG range and ultimately David never gets his chance to win the matchup. Simon's blood pressure goes back to normal as he squeaks by on a win of less than 3 points.
2. Jon vs. Dan
Jon had a 21.4 point lead going in to this game. He could absorb some TDs but if Carr had a monster game, it was over for him.
The first half was actually quite favorable for Jon. Carr did throw a TD but with Josh Jacobs dominating and scoring a rushing TD, it seemed like it could be a quiet night for Carr. He even should have fumbled on that sack that we've mentioned before, losing 2 points, which would have been enough for the win if everything else held the same.
In the second half, as the Chiefs dominated time of possession and Carr struggled with finding receivers, it looked like it might be in the bag. But with their backs against the wall and a 7 point deficit, Carr found Adams deep for a TD on a completely busted coverage by the Chiefs secondary. Thankfully, the Raiders didn't attempt to throw on the 2 point conversion so there was no chance he would lose there. Jon was holding on to a .18 (i.e. 5 passing yard lead) and just needed Mahomes to ice the game so Carr never touched the ball again. Mahomes failed to convert on 3rd and 4 and Carr got one more chance to lead Dan's team to victory.
The first 2 plays were running plays by the Raiders. At first I was confused but it made sense. They only needed to get in field goal range, Jacobs had been super effective, the Chiefs were preventing any huge downfield shots, and they needed to kill clock to make sure that the Chiefs didn't have a chance at winning the game themselves. After the 2 minute warning though, Carr finds Renfrow for 9 yards, flipping the .18 lead from Jon to Dan. Jon still had a chance if Carr, in his desperation, threw a pick, or got sacked and fumbled the ball. But a few plays later, on a failed 4th down attempt, it was over. Jon would lose the closest matchup of the night, only .54 points, on the last meaningful drive of the game.
1. David Y vs. Eric
David entered the matchup with a lead of 29.98 points. He had Adams and Waller. Eric had Jacobs and Kelce. If you watched the game, or you've been reading any of the stuff above, you know how this ends. But before the game, David seemed pretty comfortable. He could absorb one monster game with the points he had and he basically had 2 star receiving options to outscore whoever didn't have the monster game. Well, what if both have monster games?
Disaster first struck when after 2 drives, Waller appeared on the sidelines in a hoodie. He had reaggravated a hamstring issue and wasn't going to return to the game. At this point, this was terrible news for David but Adams had just scored a 58 yard TD and Kelce hadn't quite done anything yet so it was not as comforting but a 40+ point lead midway through the 1st quarter was not the worst situation to be in.
On the next Raiders drive, one Josh (McDaniels) decided the other Josh (Jacobs) was going to feature heavily. There were 12 snapped balls on this drive. 6 were rushes by Jacobs, including the 1 yard TD. The worst part was that Adams had basically set the TD up with nothing to show for it. He drew 2 PI calls for 48 yards, including one in the end zone that set up the 1 yard run. But hope was not lost. It was still a 30 point game midway through the 2nd quarter. And then Mahomes took over.
We've heard it already, right? Kelce 1 yard TD after CEH can't get in. Jacobs runs some more. After halftime, another Kelce TD. Jacobs gets some more while Carr struggles in the pass game. Another Kelce TD, tying his career record. Adams still is catchless in the 2nd half. Jacobs continues to pound the rock. Kelce has made up 20+ points from all these short TD catches and Jacobs has made up the rest of the deficit by just grinding out yards. At this point, the score is 107.04-103.36. David is clinging on to a small lead with the Raiders taking over on offense.
Jacobs gets the rock 3 of the first 4 plays and he breaks off 2 huge runs, one for 14 and another for 37. This is the point where Eric first takes the lead. He's up 108.66-107.04. The drive ends in a FG and with the ball back to Mahomes, Eric can breathe easy as David can't make up points while KC has the ball.
The good news gets better for Eric. Kelce stays quiet all drive until he vultures the 1 yard TD from CEH again on an easy crossing route through the entire Raiders defense. He was literally uncovered. I don't understand how a guy catches 3 TDs against your team and then you decide the best course of action at the 1 yard line is to not cover him. But anyways, Eric is happy. It's not over but at 115.26-107.04, he can absorb a TD if Jacobs can eat up some of the yards.
Well, Jacobs does eat up some yards, 29 to be exact, but on 3rd and 6, Carr bombs it to Adams for a 48 yard TD strike. After being quiet the entire 2nd half, Adams puts David back on top: 118.34-118.06. Jacobs falls just short of the 2 point conversion, keeping David in the lead. He can't quite rest easy yet as Kelce takes the field, trying to kill the clock.
Surprisingly though, on KC's last meaningful drive, Kelce doesn't even get targeted once. A combination of Sky Moore, CEH, and Hardman fails to ice the game, giving the Raiders one last chance. And with the Raiders needing to move the ball, it seems like it's time for Adams to put the finishing touches on the game.
Until Jacobs runs. And runs again. And runs again. He racks up 21 yards in a hurry, giving Eric the lead again at 120.26-118.34. But the Raiders realize they need to start throwing the ball as they know they're not going to make up the yards to get in to FG range by just running with Jacobs. On 3rd and 1, with the game on the line, Carr hits Adams on the right sideline for 15 yards! Just enough to get into FG range and to give David the slimmest of leads (.08). But on further review, Adams taps his toe before he gets full control of the ball, leading to a 4th and 1. On 4th and I, Carr gets a blitz up the middle so he decides to air it out for Adams again and he runs into Renfrow on overlapping routes, not allowing him to even have a chance at the ball. The game ends in a disappointing loss for both the Raiders and David.
What an exhilarating night with 4 people happy they survived and 4 people disappointed in the outcomes. Isn't this what we play fantasy for?
On to the...
MOTW
5. BEST TEAM (Mike) vs. 8. #winnable (Chris)
Since I wrote on so many teams above, I thought I'd give a shoutout to 2 teams in the middle of the pack. But these are not ordinary middle of the pack teams. Chris may be in 8th but he's got the highest PF and has had some bad matchup luck (although nobody is beating Rich in the bad luck department. Not even Chris matches all of Rich's opponents' points combined). He's got the league trump card in Mahomes and possibly the X-factor of the year in Taysom. On the other side, Mike might be middling so far but he's the reigning champ. He won't go down easily.
QB: Mike ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Chris
At first I was going to put this all the way to Chris's side but he does get a stingy defense in the Bills that may cause him to get some negative points. He'll still get 30+ in a shootout but probably not the 50 we're expecting. On the other side, Rodgers has been disappointing but if there's ever a get right opportunity, it's against the Jets. He won't score as much as Mahomes but he'll keep it competitive as he finally tosses 3 TD in a game.
WR: Mike ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ ◯ Chris
Most of the receivers in this matchup are kind of boom bust 2nd options. Higgins will depend on who Burrow locks on to that week (him or Chase), Thielen requires a double team on JJ to really be productive, Godwin requires Mike Evans to have a slow day, Gabe Davis gets long balls but is a clear 2nd behind Diggs, and Olave may have to compete with both Thomas and Kamara, depending on who plays QB. The pendulum swings to Mike's side because Cooper Kupp is the first, second, and third option for the Rams and Stafford's subconscious racism.
RB: Mike ◯ ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ Chris
I almost put this all the way to Chris again but Ekeler and Fournette have almost been playing too well to keep it going. I expect them to combine to score around 40 points but there's no way they both score 30+ like last week... right? On the other side, Jeff Wilson should get nice run in a game SF should win easily and Rhamondre gets to feast on a Cleveland team that Ekeler just destroyed on the ground.
TE/K/DST: Mike ◯ ◯ 🟢 ◯ ◯ Chris
Mike has arguably the best (or second best) TE you can have in the game. But Chris has a freaking QB/RB/TE/coach playing in his TE spot. He could put up 0, he could up 35. You really just don't know. He's an Andy Dalton injury away from playing 2 QBS in his roster. Bass should be heavily involved in a high scoring affair and both defenses get to face mediocre offenses and should be able to generate some sacks and turnovers, although I do like GB a tad more than a Bosa-less Chargers D. If you want to swing it Mike's way, I don't blame you but I'll call it a wash.
Winner: Chris
If Chris is going to win the league and keep the Mahomes reverse curse (blessing?) going, he's going to have to start rolling off wins so he's not fighting to make the playoffs. He'll continue his winning ways this week in what should be a comfortable win over Mike (10+ points).
Good luck to all!
