Week 16 - Championship Week

While I hate writing MOTWs about my own team, I must say, I love the chance to write it on championship week since it means I actually made it to the big money game.

We'll do a slightly different variation of the typical MOTW:

MOTW

1. Microgement vs. 3. Quarantine @ Mahomes

The key to this matchup is pretty simple: How much of Mahomes's greatness will Hill and Kelce negate? The best way to stop a dominant QB on the other side is to own their top target (look no further than Diggs negating half of Allen's points last week in Simon's win over Jon). For Dan, he owns the top TWO weapons on the Chiefs, the most explosive offense in the league. Let's see a week to week breakdown of the comparison of Mahomes vs. Hill + Kelce points:

1: 26.44 vs. 27.1 (102.5%) [H2H matchup]

2: 31.48 vs. 38.8 (123.3%)

3: 48.00 vs. 30.4 (63.3%)

4: 24.24 vs. 22.9 (94.5%)

5: 33.70 vs. 37.6 (111.6%)

6: 24.60 vs. 23.0 (93.5%)

7: 14.00 vs. 19.1 (136.4%)

8: 46.64 vs. 44.7 (95.8%)

9: 38.88 vs. 49.5 (127.3%)

11: 25.52 vs. 44.36 (173.8%)

12: 37.28 vs. 63.6 (170.6%) [H2H matchup]

13: 21.32 vs. 35.4 (166.0%)

14: 22.62 vs. 48.2 (213.0%)

15: 31.86 vs. 33.2 (104.2%)

As you can see, in almost every week, they have negated all of Mahomes's contributions (week 3 being the only major outlier). Worse for Simon, it looks like Mahomes is focusing on them even more as the season comes to a close. In every week since week 9, they have combined to surpass Mahomes's points every week. But it's not like benching Mahomes is an option for Simon, he's probably his MVP (or second only to Diggs).

So what does Simon need? He needs a WR and TE combination to outplay Wilson or Mayfield at the same ratio that Hill and Kelce outscore Mahomes. The best combination for this may be Hopkins against a depleted 49ers defense that he already dropped for 20+ points earlier in the season, and Kittle or Henry having a blowup game, catching AT LEAST one score. Now, this is easier said than done and Simon will probably be looking to get a bit of a boost by winning the special teams battle, as well as the backfield battle, as his RBs are slightly better than Dan's (although Fournette has a ridiculous matchup that should make him and RB1).

Winner: Honestly, it's too close to call. Dan has clobbered Simon in 2 previous matchups but each week in fantasy starts from scratch. Whoever wins will be a well-deserved champion.

Good luck to all!

P.S. David K and Biggie duke it out for the right to a $25 gift card. People, don't forget to keep competing, even if you don't make the playoffs!

SPECIAL PAYOUT NOTE:

I will be updating the table below to keep everyone reminded of the payout structure at the given moment in case there is an abrupt end to the season. Anything grey and crossed out are no longer possibilities and the highlighted text is what the current payout would be if an abrupt cancellation were to happen:

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after <10 regular season games: All money is returned to owners.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 10-12 regular season games: Top 6 seeds (playoff teams) receive $150, Bottom 6 seeds receive $50.

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 13 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $250, Seeds 4-6 receive $175
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $300
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $550 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $50 each. (If the season is cancelled before games are played this week. Otherwise, prize payouts will be paid)
Season shortened prior to start of season 11+ games: We will have to adjust to however Yahoo changes things. If there is a way to adjust it myself, I will work backwards and make room for the playoffs as we currently do (3 of the last 4 weeks, not including the final week of the season). For example, if the season is cut to 12 games, I would try to adjust it so that the regular season is weeks 1-8, and the playoffs are weeks 9-11.
Season shortened prior to start of season <11 games: With the randomness of fantasy football, any fantasy regular season that is less than 7 weeks is too short to determine a proper winner. If this happens, I will return HALF the money back to all participants and we will be playing the shortened season for a smaller prize (Total prize pool of $600). 

Week 15 - Semi-finals

We're here. 14 weeks done, 4 teams left, fighting for 3 money spots. As my team is still involved in the playoffs, instead of straight MOTWs, we will be looking at key players in each of the semi-final matchups.

1. Microgement vs. 4. BEST TEAM

Dan's quest towards back to back championships continues while Mike is trying to live up to his team's name. Will Mike take a step towards his first championship? Or will Dan get a chance to defend his crown?

Studs: Swift vs. Henry

It seems unfair to compare a rookie RB in a non-favorable game script to arguably the best late season rusher in the league. But these two backs facing off against each other this week get to face terrible run defenses that should propel both to RB1 status. Swift's ability to stay involved in the passing game allows him to hold value even if they fall behind. But no matter how poorly they're doing, the Lions will continue to have to run the ball to keep the defense honest and the Titans are one of the worst at stopping the run.

Duds: Hill vs. Hill

Tyreek Hill a dud?? Seems impossible but hear me out. The Saints are most likely going to shadow him with Lattimore and bring help over the top. The bad news for Mike is that a lot of the production Hill would normally have should end up going to Kelce, who is also owned by Dan. For Mike, the QB on the other side of the KC v. NO game is going to struggle. KC shut down a much better talent in Lamar Jackson so I don't see how Tayson Hill is going to have much more success. He's going to have to throw a lot to keep up with the Chiefs offense and I think his TOs are about to spike.

2. Fe- Brees vs. 3. Quarantine @ Mahomes

Studs: Akers vs. Taylor

Both these rookie running backs get a couple things that should make them RB1s for this week's matchup:

1. Recent control of their backfield as the top running option
2. Ability to catch balls out of the backfield
3. Games they should win, resulting in many attempts
4. Bad defenses that give up tons of yards and points

Expect them to cancel each other out.

Duds: Cook vs. Diggs

Now, Cook could and Diggs could still finish in the top 12 at their position, just based on volume alone. But if you take a closer look, you'll see why they could also come away with less than desired performances. Cook faces a stingy Chicago defense in a fight for the playoffs. In the last game against the Bears, he couldn't break 100 yards on 30 attempts. He should be involved in the passing game in what should be a brawl for playoff positioning, but he might not have the 25+ points we've become accustomed to expecting from him. As for Diggs, the Broncos defense has actually been more solid than their record would show. And with him blowing up on Sunday night, you can expect the Broncos to create a game plan to limit his touches. He should still get a decent amount of volume, but I just don't know if the quality of those opportunities will allow him to have a big day.

Good luck to all!

SPECIAL PAYOUT NOTE:

Going forward, I will also be updating the table below to keep everyone reminded of the payout structure at the given moment in case there is an abrupt end to the season. Anything grey and crossed out are no longer possibilities and the highlighted text is what the current payout would be if an abrupt cancellation were to happen:

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after <10 regular season games: All money is returned to owners.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 10-12 regular season games: Top 6 seeds (playoff teams) receive $150, Bottom 6 seeds receive $50.

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 13 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $250, Seeds 4-6 receive $175
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $300 (If the season is cancelled before games are played this week)
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $550 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $50 each. (If the games this week are completed)
Season shortened prior to start of season 11+ games: We will have to adjust to however Yahoo changes things. If there is a way to adjust it myself, I will work backwards and make room for the playoffs as we currently do (3 of the last 4 weeks, not including the final week of the season). For example, if the season is cut to 12 games, I would try to adjust it so that the regular season is weeks 1-8, and the playoffs are weeks 9-11.
Season shortened prior to start of season <11 games: With the randomness of fantasy football, any fantasy regular season that is less than 7 weeks is too short to determine a proper winner. If this happens, I will return HALF the money back to all participants and we will be playing the shortened season for a smaller prize (Total prize pool of $600). 

Week 14 - Playoff Predictions

 A week 13 that couldn't really bring much excitement delivered on not bringing any excitement. The playoff standings are EXACTLY what I predicted they would be last week, although Justin Tucker's missed FG allowed the standings to play out that way (otherwise, Mike would have taken the 3 seed by less than a point). We'll see if this has any bearing on the playoffs.

Let's get into playoff predictions:

Champion: Jon

With Hockenson's recent bump in targets and production and Andy Dalton bringing enough juice on offense to make the run game a threat again, does Jon's team have a weakness? His WR depth all of a sudden looks like it could be an issue if there's an unexpected injury but if you throw the best 9 best players out there, there's not many teams that can compete with Jon's complete roster (he only needs Zeke to be an RB2!!).

Runner-Up: Dan

Dan's biggest advantage against every opponent is having a 4th receiver at the TE spot. If he were a receiver, he'd be the WR3. The difference between him and 2nd place Darren Waller (not counting Kittle due to his missed games) is larger than the difference between Waller and 7th place Goedert. Dan lost fuller but Coutee may be able to fill the void as he did on Sunday against a good Colts defense. His RBs still don't inspire the most confidence and Wilson hasn't been as otherworldly as he was at the start of the season, but good luck picking out a true weakness on this squad.

Dark Horse: Mike

I guess I'm indirectly predicting a winner of this week's 4-5 matchup but Mike's team still has all the components to be a championship team. Roeth and Taysom both have pretty fantasy friendly schedules, his WRs go 6 deep, and he has 2 legitimate number 1 RBs in Henry and Chubb. I don't think I need to remind people of Henry's late season heroics from years past. While other teams are tiring out and getting ready for the playoffs, this is the time for Henry to shine. Let's just say I'm happy I don't have to face him early on.

This is no disrespect to Cho, Eric, and myself, who are all previous champions. But I'd say 2 of the 3 best contenders for the ship this year are ones who haven't tasted the glory of winning the league yet. Maybe 2020 can end on a positive note for one of these teams.

Good luck to all!

SPECIAL PAYOUT NOTE:

Going forward, I will also be updating the table below to keep everyone reminded of the payout structure at the given moment in case there is an abrupt end to the season. Anything grey and crossed out are no longer possibilities and the highlighted text is what the current payout would be if an abrupt cancellation were to happen:

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after <10 regular season games: All money is returned to owners.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 10-12 regular season games: Top 6 seeds (playoff teams) receive $150, Bottom 6 seeds receive $50.

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 13 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $250, Seeds 4-6 receive $175 (If the season is cancelled before games are played this week)
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $300 (If the games this week are completed)
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $550 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $50 each.
Season shortened prior to start of season 11+ games: We will have to adjust to however Yahoo changes things. If there is a way to adjust it myself, I will work backwards and make room for the playoffs as we currently do (3 of the last 4 weeks, not including the final week of the season). For example, if the season is cut to 12 games, I would try to adjust it so that the regular season is weeks 1-8, and the playoffs are weeks 9-11.
Season shortened prior to start of season <11 games: With the randomness of fantasy football, any fantasy regular season that is less than 7 weeks is too short to determine a proper winner. If this happens, I will return HALF the money back to all participants and we will be playing the shortened season for a smaller prize (Total prize pool of $600). 

Week 13 - We Made It

Last week, Dan almost made me pay up with a 200 point showing, and worst of all, he did it against me. Unfortunately, Russell couldn't take advantage of a terrible Philly secondary and Dan only scored in the 170s... only...

Somehow, we've made it through the regular season of the fantasy playoffs. Although there have been some interesting situations (more Tuesday games than I can count, a Wednesday afternoon game, and a WR playing QB that was a TERRIBLE fantasy player), it was a pretty normal fantasy seasons. Some unfortunate injuries, just like every year, derailed a few teams (CMC, Saquon, Dak, OBJ) but overall, COVID didn't really seem to make or break the season for anybody.

I was hoping for an intense MOTW to end the season but with Biggie 70 points behind Cho, the chances of him winning AND outscoring Cho by 70 is slim to none. Even the top 2 seeds look pretty locked unless Jon loses and Mike wins as Mike probably can't catch up on points. Here's the way the teams COULD go into the playoffs (I assume anything greater than a 60 point difference will not be made up in 1 week) with my predicted scenario bolded:

1: Dan or Jon

2: Dan, Jon, or Mike

3: Jon, Mike, or Simon

4: Mike or Simon

5: Eric or Cho

6: Eric or Cho

Once the seeding is completed, I'll do a playoff preview for next week's post.

For the people in the bottom half of the bracket, don't forget to compete for your $25 gift card. David Kim is on a mission to win it as he's climbed from 12 to 8 in a matter of weeks. We'll see if he can keep this hot streak going and not walk away empty handed.

Good luck to all!

SPECIAL PAYOUT NOTE:

Going forward, I will also be updating the table below to keep everyone reminded of the payout structure at the given moment in case there is an abrupt end to the season. Anything grey and crossed out are no longer possibilities and the highlighted text is what the current payout would be if an abrupt cancellation were to happen:

Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after <10 regular season games: All money is returned to owners.
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 10-12 regular season games: Top 6 seeds (playoff teams) receive $150, Bottom 6 seeds receive $50. (If the season is cancelled before games are played this week)
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 13 regular season games (aka we are in the fantasy playoffs): Seeds 1 and 2 receive $250, Seeds 4-6 receive $175 (If the games this week are completed)
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 14 regular season games (aka second round): All 4 remaining seeds receive $300
Cancelled or season shortened abruptly after 15 regular season games (aka championship): 2 teams in championship will receive $550 each. 2 teams in consolation will receive $50 each.
Season shortened prior to start of season 11+ games: We will have to adjust to however Yahoo changes things. If there is a way to adjust it myself, I will work backwards and make room for the playoffs as we currently do (3 of the last 4 weeks, not including the final week of the season). For example, if the season is cut to 12 games, I would try to adjust it so that the regular season is weeks 1-8, and the playoffs are weeks 9-11.
Season shortened prior to start of season <11 games: With the randomness of fantasy football, any fantasy regular season that is less than 7 weeks is too short to determine a proper winner. If this happens, I will return HALF the money back to all participants and we will be playing the shortened season for a smaller prize (Total prize pool of $600).