Week 3 Observations

First off, to everyone who was expecting a post last week, I apologize. I got super busy with work and prepping for a mini-family vacation to the beach that I did not get a chance to post anything. If that excuse isn't good enough, too bad.

As for this week, I think it's still slightly too early to do a MOTW but I just wanted to make a few observations as well as explain how MOTW's may change slightly going forward.

First, the observations:

- At least through 2 weeks, no matchup has been decided due to the new rule changes. A large number of receptions hasn't pushed a potential loser into a winning position nor has a missed kick ruined someone's week. But I am looking forward to the first nail-biter that comes down to someone's kicker just not needing to kick one but getting their 29 yard chip shot blocked.

- The old adage in our league was "If you score 100 points, you had a pretty good week. If you score 110 and lose, that's just unfortunate." Based on the first two weeks (which, btw, seem like really volatile scoring weeks but I'm probably wrong) it looks like we'll have to change those scores to 125 and 130, respectively. I'm sure as we get more week to week data, those numbers will settle into place (my prediction is about 115 and 125 to account for about 30-32 receptions per week + the small chance of negative points from kickers) but I kind of miss just aiming for the round 100 number.

- I can't wait to see the first time somebody breaks 200 points. That seems absurd to me but just last week, Dan's team hit 161 with some missed opportunities like Edelman not scoring, Ingram with a low output on the ground, and Fuller disappearing with a big fat zero. A couple more things lining up right and we could have seen something special. If someone does hit 200 points this season, I'll get them a small surprise gift.

As for the update to MOTW's going forward, I want to do a look back at the real MOTW of the previous week, based on how close the matchup was, if there were any extraordinary plays or performances that altered the outcome, and what it means for the standings in our league. This probably means forward looking MOTW's are shorter but I think it helps to reflect on the previous week as well.

Last note: this last week had so many injuries that created havoc on the waiver wire. Just a friendly reminder that while we still have to act on injuries, we shouldn't hope for them. Not judging here, as I used to hope for injuries all the time, but let's try to remember that these are people before they are pawns in our quest for league domination.

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

2020 - Focusing on the Positives

This past year has been one of the weirdest I've ever lived through. In my 10 years of working, I've never been home for this long (6 months and counting). And I could sit here and talk about COVID or BLM but I think we've gotten enough of that from all our other media sources. Instead, let's focus on some other things, especially, positive things. Since the last football season ended:

- Jon welcomed a baby girl into the world

- David Y got married (just 3 days ago actually and was the reason we couldn't draft on Monday)

- Paul got engaged

If there's anybody I missed, I do apologize but it also probably means we haven't talked in a while. Don't be a stranger and reach out any time!

Some of you are probably thinking "WTF is going on with Simon?" But this is all an introduction and segue into the column, which is going to be a quick draft review (don't have time to go into too many details) but the caveat is that it's all going to be positive things about each team. Just think of this as my yearly draft review column if Jon was writing the column and he owned every team. So without further ado:

1. David Y Team (David Y)

Favorite Pick: Lamar Jackson, 2nd round

Do I think he might regress a bit? Yes. But I still don't know how defenses are supposed to stop a guy who can just juke or outrun all your defenders. The Titans just dared him to throw in the playoffs and attacked the box aggressively but not every team is fit to do that. And who knows how much further he's come as a passer?

Favorite Sleeper (Picked in round 9 or later): Mike Gesicki, 10th round

Obviously we love the name (If David's team isn't Shibal Gesicki by next week, I might have to change it for him). But once Tua takes over, this Jimmy Graham-lite TE should be a big part of turning around the offense in Miami.

2. Jacked Up! (Brian)

Favorite Pick:Robert Woods, 4th round

They lost Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley and really didn't gain any replacements so I think Woods and Kupp are in line for huge workloads. While Kupp does better on the underneath routes, I think Woods will come to be Goff's go to option.

Favorite Sleeper: Jalen Reagor, 14th round

It's kind of ironic that in what's been labeled the greatest wide receiver draft class in a long time, none of them look to be huge fantasy impacts from day 1. Well, between Alshon's injuries and DeSean's antisemitism, I think Reagor will be the number 1 option here soon enough.

3. Wizzeak! (Jung) [probably my favorite team name this year. "Adios, turd nuggets!"]

Favorite Pick: David Johnson, 4th round

This is a ridiculous value pick for a guy who was a top 5 option just a few years ago. Sure, he hasn't quite impressed since then but injuries and terrible schemes are the bigger issues than his talent. He only has to fend off Duke Johnson and with Nuk gone, DJ could become Watson's best friend.

Favorite Sleeper: Ian Thomas, 15th round

No more Olsen means it's time for Thomas to shine. He should get plenty of targets from a conservative Teddy.

4. The Glory Hogans (Paul)

Favorite Pick: Chris Carson, 3rd round

Carson is one of those guys you set and forget. His floor is a RB2 and his ceiling could vault him into a top 10 finish. While Seattle has a great QB, they're still a run first team and Carson fits the mold well.

Favorite Sleeper: Kerryon Johnson, 12th round

For all the hype around their new rookie and the signing of AP, we forget that Kerryon is still the lead back in Detroit. He never got a full workload, and still may not, but he's been a productive back nonetheless.

5. Fe-Brees (Jon)

Favorite Pick: James Conner, 3rd round

Sure, he had a bad year last year. But with the rapist back under center and no major competition for his starting job, he may be closer to his 2018 version than his 2019 version.

Favorite Sleeper: Sony Michel, 14th round

We're still not 100% sure of the effects of his injury and how Bill is going to split up this RBBC, but Sony has been solid in his first 2 years. If he can come back healthy, are Burkhead and White really going to prevent him from being the RB1?

6. DK vs. Everybody (David K)

Favorite Pick: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, 1st round

If you can't tell, I'm all in on the Chiefs this year. And this includes their rookie with great hands in the backfield. The Chiefs' biggest problem (hard to find one from a team that won the Super Bowl) last year was red zone efficiency and CEH could be the answer in both the run game and the screen game.

Favorite Sleeper: Cam Newton, 11th round

We don't know the status of his shoulder but Cam + Bill should make for a very interesting season. If he doesn't have great numbers, let's at least hope for an entertaining season.

7. BEST TEAM (Mike)

Auto-drafted

8. Suzy Y Team (Eric)

Favorite Pick: Keenan Allen, 5th round

The fact that one of the most consistent receivers and best route runners dropped to the late 5th round is ridiculous. Even if Tyrod and Herbert are no Rivers, Allen should put up WR2 numbers based on his talent alone.

Favorite Sleeper: James Robinson, 13th round

While I hate Eric for taking him, I must applaud his choice. Whatever Robinson showed was enough for the Jaguars to let go of Fournette, a top 5 pick. Sure, the Jaguars will suck. But let's see what this guy can do with his 20 touches a game and a bit of Minshew Magic.

9. #ridethewave (Chris)

Favorite Pick: Austin Ekeler, 2nd round

Somebody I wanted before eventually selecting Sanders, I think Ekeler is going to do just fine, as he showed during Gordon's absence last year. With the added boost of our .5 PPR, his receiving skills will be that much more valuable.

Favorite Sleeper: Aaron Rodgers, 9th round

I know the situation isn't ideal for him but if being slighted on draft day got him an MVP and a Super Bowl win, I wonder how he'll take the latest move of the Packers drafting his successor.

10. fresh cream cakes (Biggie) [shout-out: go visit Tous Les Jour in Wicker Park to get some of your own fresh cream cakes!]

Favorite Pick: Juju Smith-Schuster, 3rd round

I think Juju was one pick away from going to Dan and us having the best Office x FF crossover of all time with the team name of "Voodoo Mama Juju". But yeah, Juju is going to be great. He has the sexual assaulter back to throw him deep balls and he should be a solid WR1.

Favorite Sleeper: Sterling Shephard, 9th round

Someone has to catch balls in NY, right? I keep hearing how Daniel Jones is going to be good but none of his receivers are going in the top 6 rounds. Seems odd to me...

11. Microgement (Dan) [please never stop coming up with these names]

Favorite Pick: Tyreek Hill, 1st round, Travis Kelce, 2nd round

He not only neutralizes Mahomes when he plays against him, he's also guaranteeing 150 yards and a TD every week from 2 positions. And that's just the floor. Watch out for KC.

Favorite Sleeper: Justin Jefferson, 9th round

Replacing Diggs will be a tall order but with the extra attention paid to Adam Thielen, expect this very talented receiver to be a useful spot starter in fantasy.

Good luck to all!