Friday, December 20, 2019

Week 16 - Championship

We all made it alive to the final week of one of the weirdest seasons ever. A white player was the #1 RB, Jameis Winston might lead the league in yards, TDs, AND INTs, and a defense was the MVP through the first 8 weeks of the season. But only 2 players remain alive in fantasy as they fight it out for the final prize. It only makes sense that in the weirdest season, the playoffs went chalk.

Last week was a doozy with Cho surviving by a point (a Jack Doyle fourth quarter reception to be exact) and Dan surviving by less than .1 points (David is kicking himself for not playing Lockett). Let's see if the final week can bring as much drama.

MOTY
1. BOBODDY vs. 2. Jacked Up!
Dan is finally one win away from getting the prize he so covets. Always a solid fantasy player, Dan always seems to stumble one game shy of eternal glory. Can he make this weird season the one where he breaks through the glass ceiling to join the champions of years past? Meanwhile, Cho looks to complete his three-peat, effectively building his savings account off the backs of everyone in the league. Who will take the final prize home?

Studs: Ingram vs. Julio
Ingram gets a second shot at a Cleveland team that held him to just 7.7 point the last time they faced off. Since then, Baltimore has become a Super Bowl favorite while Cleveland is waiting for 2020. No Myles + clinching the bye + revenge game is enough for Ingram to break out for a huge game. Julio is always a stud but he should be able to do serious damage against a Jaguars defense that no longer has Jalen Ramsey. No sleight towards Bouye but this secondary just hasn't been the same since they traded him away. Expect a ton of Julio stat padding as all he has to play for is increasing his career totals.

Duds: Golladay vs. Bell
Golladay has been a revelation this year but he gets a tough matchup this week against a Denver defense that's finally finding its groove under Vic Fangio. Expect him to get the majority of attention resulting in a better day for Marvin Jones. Bell gets a revenge match against Pittsburgh but unfortunately, his offensive line won't let him get the vengeance he craves. Pitt's defense has looked great the past couple of weeks since the addition of Fitzpatrick and they're still fighting for their playoff spot. Expect them to focus on the primary source of offense for the Jets.

X-Factors: Perriman vs. McLaurin
Both these guys are making debuts for their teams. Perriman just got picked up this week and has been a stud since Evans went down. And now with Godwin nursing an injury, we might see Perriman get close to 15 targets this week against a beatable secondary. McLaurin isn't new to Cho's team but he's been unplayable for a while until last week. As Haskins has improved for the Redskins, McLaurin's stock has been able to recover from the free-fall it took in week 7. Can he exploit a underwhelming Giants secondary to come through in the clutch for Cho?

Winner: Dan
Dan's only weakness all season has been his WR depth and he may just have plugged it with the best stopper available in the market. Perriman is a legit WR1/2 this week and could be exactly what Dan needs to finally take home the trophy. I'd say Dan has more talent but Cho has more favorable matchups. It'll be close but Dan finally joins the hall of champions.

Good luck to all!

Don't forget to fill out the survey!

Simon Kim

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Week 15 - Semifinals

We're finally down to our final four after the wild card round went chalk and we have 3 familiar faces and an upstart threatening to upset the balance of the league. Who is going to come out of this for chance at the 4 figure prize?

(On another note, the consolation bracket started off with 2 upsets of the Kim brothers by a Kim and another Kim. The semifinals will be Kim vs. Kim and Kim vs. Lee (but really Kim))

MOTW 1
1. BOBODDY vs. 4. David Y Team
At first glance, this looks like a runaway victory for Dan. But with Pat's hand concerns and Dallas's urgency to make the playoffs, this could be much closer than we think. David is hoping that this deep playoff run ends with his first ever ring. But Dan's thinking "wait your turn and pay your dues" as his championship is long overdue. Who takes the step towards the final?

Studs: CMC vs. Zeke
The two first round running backs have been critical for their respective teams all season. While neither have a plus matchup and could be playing from behind depending on the game flow, they're both pass catching options that won't be phased out by more passing plays. I see the two RB1s pretty much cancelling each other out.

Duds: Ingram vs. Laird
Now these are clearly 2 different levels of RB2s but Ingram faces a surprisingly tough Jets run defense on a short week. Not only will the Jets slow him down but I can see Harbaugh limiting his snaps to preserve him for the real life playoff run that is to come. On the other side, Laird is just not a good running back. Even worse, he plays for the Dolphins, meaning he has to play from behind in most games. 

X-Factors: Shepard and Landry vs. Slayton and Samuel
While both stud WRs on each team should get theirs, the WR2 and 3 positions provide some intrigue. Landry gets a great matchup against a terrible Cardinals secondary. With the Browns still fighting for the playoffs, he could produce one of his best games of the year. David has Samuel, who has scored 10+ points in the last 5 weeks and 6 of the past 7. He's clearly earned Jimmy and Kyle's trust and gets a Falcons secondary that is only out-worsed by the Eagles and Cardinals (what's with all the bird teams being terrible at guarding the pass?). Shepard and Slayton present the most interesting matchup as they should both be successful against the Dolphins absent pass defense (are Dolphins birds?). The big question will be who gets more targets? Eli seems to like Slayton more but Jones could be back for this game.

Winner: Dan
It's still hard to bet against Mahomes and the superiority of this backfield compared to David's. Additionally, Ertz > Njoku and even special teams leans slightly in Dan's direction. David's coup will have to wait one more season.

MOTW 2
2. Jacked Up! vs. 3. Jacked Down!
Cho is looking to 3-peat for the first time in league history but his opponent owns 3 trophies of his own. Both teams do have some flaws but the talent on their team stacks up well against each other. Can Eric stop Cho from joining him in the pantheon of greatest fantasy managers?

Studs: Jones vs. Thomas
Who is the best WR in the league? Maybe a question we'll never be able to answer but two of the best face off and should have monster games. Julio gets a tough matchup against the 49ers but with Ridley dealing with injuries and the Falcons playing from behind, expect Julio to get 10+ targets. Michael Thomas should feast on an Indy D that's better at stopping the run than the pass and have been giving up huge point totals in the past few weeks.

Duds: Bell vs. Ekeler
Baltimore's defense has been overshadowed by the second coming of Vick but they have been great all season. They don't quite match up to the Lewis, Reed, Suggs, defenses of the past but they don't have glaring weak spots. Bell will have a tough time finding holes and gaps. And even if he does, can his QB find him? Ekeler has been a godsend for Eric's team as Lindsay has regressed but he gets a tough matchup this week against the Vikings defense that's reverting back to 2017, when they were arguably the best defense in the league.

X-Factors: Sanders vs. Waller 
Sanders has been dealing with a nagging rib injury for the past few weeks but looked great in the game against New Orleans. He won't be throwing a TD in every game but we'll see if he can find success against a soft Falcons secondary. Waller has been quiet since the hype train in week 1 but this seems like the perfect game for him to reintroduce himself to the league. A close game against an inconsistent defense while still fighting for a playoff spot is the perfect formula for a monster game.

Winner: Eric
Cho has some rough matchups this week and Derrick Henry and Thielen's statuses are still up in the air. The good news is, he might be able to get one more vintage performance from New England this week to make up the talent gap at other positions.

Good luck to all!

Simon

Friday, December 6, 2019

Week 14 - Playoff Predictions

Sorry I'm late posting this one. Got swamped with work and didn't get to post before my flight home. Fell asleep super early and so here we are. Also, I can't believe all the Kims (including honorary Jon "Lee" Kim) missed the playoffs.

Instead of doing in-depth matchups for this week (especially since David Y and Chris's matchup has already begun) I'll do a few quick playoff predictions.

Winner - Dan Park
He finally gets the monkey off his back and captures his first title. His team has never scored under 85 points and now that Mahomes is back, Browns have an easy schedule, Golladay is looking like a true WR1, and Ertz has been picking up his production (minus the stinker last week in Miami), it will be hard to derail this team. He's got a few other wild cards in the mix: Kareem Hunt could be useful down the stretch, Sterling is finally back healthy, and Rudolph has been a monster in the past 3 weeks (10+ per game). It'll take a heroic effort to derail Dan's season.

Runner Up - Eric
Mr. Opposite ended with the 2nd highest score of the year and he'll make the finals again thanks to a solid team at every position. His biggest issue is at QB where he'll need to find the right streamer every week but he's got 3 WRs that are arguably top 15 options on every given week, Cook, assuming he is healthy, has never scored under 10 points, and he's got some interesting RB2 options, all with the possibility of posting RB1 numbers on a given week.

Biggest Disappointment - Cho
Cho rode the New England D for the first 7 weeks while they feasted on a soft schedule but his end of season run was disappointing to say the least. He went 3-3, averaging 84 points a game. Luckily, he hung on to his first round bye but a slew of untimely injuries may derail his quest at a 3-peat. New England does get Cincinnati and Buffalo to end the fantasy season so if they can conjure up some 25+ point magic again, maybe Cho makes me look like a fool.

Dark Horse - David Y
David's success is purely dependent on the Cowboys as he has their 3 best skill position players. The Cowboys will be fighting for their playoff lives meaning we should expect heavy doses of Amari and Zeke in the coming weeks. The Rams and Eagles are nothing close to the shutdown defenses they were of the past 2 years so they should both be able to put up significant points. His biggest question is at RB2 where he's hoping for a lottery ticket to hit, but the rest of his roster is solid enough to win the league.

For all people in the consolation bracket, don't give up! The Kim Bowl will determine the winner of the $25 gift card.

Good luck to all!

Simon